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December 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Lowy Institute Asia Power Index: 2025 Key Findings Report. The annual Asia Power Index — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018 — measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The project maps out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time. The Index ranks 27 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment — its scope reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. The 2025 edition is the most comprehensive assessment of the changing distribution of power in Asia to date...

  

Lowy

North Korea’s Two Koreas Policy and Prospects of Inter-Korean Relations, November 2025. This article examines the origins, strategic calculations, and implications behind Kim Jong-un’s 2023 “two Koreas policy,” which redefines South Korea as a “hostile state” and formally abandons the goal of peaceful unification. It traces the policy’s roots to the failure of the 2019 Hanoi summit and Pyongyang’s ensuing foreign policy reorientation, marked by a hardened stance toward the United States, deeper ties with Russia and China, and a public rejection of denuclearization. The article argues that there are three reasons for Kim Jong-un’s policy shift vis-à-vis South Korea...

  

EWC

North of 26 South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist Volume 12, November 2025. The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest compendium, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 12, contains articles published in ASPI’s The Strategist over the last six months. Expanding on previous volumes, this edition introduces thematic chapters focused on a range of subjects relevant to northern Australia. These include: 1. Sovereignty and strategic resilience; 2. Building the North; 3. Critical minerals and economic security; 4. Indigenous partnership and agricultural security...

  

ASPI

Pressure Points: Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, November 2025. Pressure Points part 2 explores Beijing’s growing use of military coercion against Taiwan, detailing events around Asia’s most volatile flashpoint. The analysis draws on open-source data, satellite imagery, military imagery, governmental reporting and other resources to deliver an accurate and comprehensive picture of China’s approach. It examines how Beijing frames its claim to Taiwan, the coercive and military tools it increasingly wields to enforce that claim, how Taipei is responding to mounting pressure, and how other governments are managing the growing risk of confrontation. It also details potential scenarios that President Xi may pursue to forcibly unify Taiwan...

  

ASPI

In Whose Tech We Trust: Part II – Mitigating Foreign Owned, Controlled or Influenced Technology Risks and Building Resilience, November 2025. Foreign ownership, control and influence (FOCI) risks associated with technology vendors have become a significant fault line in the Indo‑Pacific’s strategic, technological and economic landscape. As global technology supply chains have become increasingly concentrated and interdependent, concerns have grown that some foreign vendors may be subject to external direction or legal obligations that could expose national systems to influence, coercion or disruption. Governments across the region face an enduring dilemma: their economies depend on affordable, high‑performing foreign technology...

  

ASPI

In Whose Tech We Trust: Part I – Mapping Indo-Pacific Security Approaches to Foreign Owned, Controlled or Influenced Technology, November 2025. While leading countries in the Indo‑Pacific do fret about a hypertransactional Trump administration, they worry about another superpower when it comes to foreign ownership, control and influence (FOCI) of technology. As China has risen to dominate global manufacturing supply chains, it has flexed its growing national power to assert its interests at the expense of its neighbours, deploying force to press its territorial claims on India, Japan, Taiwan and the South China Sea, and backed up those efforts with economic coercion. But regulating Chinese technology is a tricky balance...

  

ASPI

Allies Entwined: Australia’s Strategic Convergence With the Philippines, November 2025. The Philippines contains vital terrain in maritime Southeast Asia, for the US and its regional allies. The Philippines is also worth defending, in normative terms, as a democracy of approximately 115 million people whose sovereignty is under daily challenge from an expansionist authoritarian power, China, which has fixed the Philippines in its strategic crosshairs. The positional importance of the Philippines coupled with its revived treaty alliance with the US makes it pivotal to deterring aggression against Taiwan and other parts of what US strategists call the First Island Chain...

  

ASPI

Australian Public and Institutional Responses to Taiwan Strait Crises, October 2025. This report addresses the increasing strategic risks and geopolitical tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait, which have direct and significant implications for Australia’s national security, economic stability, and social cohesion. The Taiwan Strait is no longer a remote concern; it sits at the heart of Australia’s strategic conversations about its future in the Indo-Pacific region. A crisis in the Taiwan Strait could disrupt Australia’s economic trajectory, disrupt key trade routes, impact Australia’s alliance commitments (such as ANZUS and AUKUS)...

  

ASPI

Sea Lines and Strategic Frontiers: The Territory’s Maritime Advantage: Views From the Strategist, October 2025. The Northern Territory is not Australia’s frontier; it is our strategic heart. The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, Sea lines and strategic frontiers: The Territory’s maritime advantage – Views from The Strategist, brings together 14 maritime-focused articles published in ASPI’s The Strategist over the past 18 months. With a foreword by The Hon Lia Finocchiaro MLA, Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, and a special introduction by Dr John Coyne and Raelene Lockhorst from ASPI’s National Security Program...

  

ASPI

Unconventional Deterrence in Australian Strategy, October 2025. As Australia prepares its 2026 National Defence Strategy (NDS), the nation must recognise that a window of strategic risk exists now and will do so into the early 2030s. The medium-term acquisition of nuclear-powered, conventionally armed submarines under AUKUS, intended to deter conflict, is irrelevant to the short-term problem of maintaining deterrence through the coming five-year period of heightened risk (2027–2032). That’s because the first AUKUS submarines—US Virginia-class boats—won’t be delivered until 2032, while the purpose-built SSN-AUKUS won’t arrive until the early 2040s. We can’t, in effect, solve a 2027 deterrence problem with a 2032 deterrent capability...

  

ASPI

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #21: Malaysia’s Fatwa Institution: Reform or Relic?. Educational trajectories, jurisprudential affiliations and political interests decisively influence the outlooks of individual muftis, often provoking debates and controversies within society. Personal experiences and religious leanings of muftis shape fatwas, and these are subject to critique, sometimes eroding public confidence in both the mufti and the fatwa institution. Sustaining legitimacy requires self-reflection and forward-looking reinterpretation. More studies are needed that examine both past and present muftis, focusing on their backgrounds, political affiliations, theological orientations, contributions to Islamic development, and the structural or situational constraints that circumscribe their authority...

  

ISEAS

Rupture in the India-U.S. Relationship: An Indian Perspective, November 2025. In recent months, India-United States relations have experienced considerable strain. The U.S. President has imposed reciprocal tariffs as well as additional tariffs on India for its Russian oil imports. These abrupt actions have disrupted a bilateral partnership that, over nearly two decades, had grown into one of the world’s most consequential, built on convergences in economic, defense, and technological cooperation as well as shared interests in maintaining a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. However, in President Trump’s second term, longstanding areas of divergence have intensified, testing the resilience of the partnership...

  

ISDP

Webinar Report: Maritime Security Governance and the Future Challenges, November 2025. Maritime security in the Indo-Pacific has grown increasingly complex amid rapid technological and geopolitical change. In this context, the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), in collaboration with Murdoch University’s Indo-Pacific Research Centre (IPRC), convened a lecture by Captain Sarabjeet S. Parmar (Retd), Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Strategy and Defence Research (CSDR), on the theme Maritime Security Governance and the Future Challenges. This report summarizes Captain Parmar’s presentation and the subsequent discussion, which examined the evolving dynamics of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific...

  

ISDP

Report of the Digital Taiwan Online Lecture Series. Taiwan in Limbo: Challenges and Prospects for Participation in the United Nations System, November 2025. The Stockholm Taiwan Center of the Institute for Security and Development Policy held a webinar for the Digital Taiwan Lecture Series on September 12, 2025, to explore Taiwan’s ongoing struggle to engage the United Nations (UN) system and discuss how current geopolitical dynamics may influence Taiwan’s future participation in the international arena...

  

ISDP

Information Warfare: How Emerging Technologies Threaten Europe and Taiwan, November 2025. The intersection of emerging technologies and disinformation has created unprecedented challenges for democratic societies, particularly in geopolitically sensitive regions like Taiwan and Europe. As artificial intelligence (AI), deepfake technology, computer vision algorithms, and social media algorithms become increasingly sophisticated, the landscape of information warfare has transformed dramatically in recent years...

  

ISDP

Report of the Second Stockholm Forum on Himalaya: Climate Crisis in Tibet, November 2025. The Second Stockholm Forum on Himalaya: Climate Crisis in Tibet, held on October 16, 2025, at Sjöfartshuset in Stockholm, gathered scholars, policymakers, and experts from Europe, Asia, and the Indo-Pacific to spotlight Tibet’s worsening ecological and geopolitical challenges. The Forum’s central message was clear: the Tibetan Plateau, the “Third Pole” that regulates monsoons, river systems, and global weather patterns, must be placed at the center of international climate diplomacy ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil...

  

ISDP

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APEC
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ADB
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ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

November 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIV, Issue 3, October 2025 (Full Report). Singapore’s GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 has turned out stronger than earlier expected. The economy’s pace of expansion is projected to moderate as the impact from tariffs become more apparent, though there are other factors that could provide some offsetting support to growth. Inflation is low but should trough in the later part of 2025. MAS Core Inflation is forecast to average 0.5% this year and pick up gradually to 0.5–1.5% in 2026. In October, MAS maintained the prevailing modest rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to the width and the level at which it is centred.

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, September 2025. The September 2025 Survey was sent out on 12 August 2025 to a total of 25 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 20 respondents (a response rate of 80%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts.The Singapore economy expanded by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 3.0% in the previous survey (Chart 1). In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 0.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025...

  

MAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q4, October 2025. After a 1.2% year-on-year decline in private consumption expenditure in 25Q1, a 1.9% rebound in 25Q2 helped lift Hong Kong’s economic growth to 3.1% for the quarter. However, frequent severe weather disrupted logistics and adversely affected retail and tourism-related activities, with GDP growth expected to slow to 2.7% in 25Q3. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8% in 25Q4, reflecting more cautious business sentiment amid weakening external demand. While entering a rate-cut cycle is expected to benefit Hong Kong’s economy, persistent US–China trade tensions and uncertainty over the US inflation trajectory leave the pace and scale of Fed rate cuts in doubt, tempering investment and trade growth. Hong Kong’s real GDP growth in 25Q4 is forecast to slow to 2.5%. The economic growth for Hong Kong in 2025 as a whole is projected to be 2.8%, in line with the previously published forecast.

  

HKU

A Pacific Eyes Intelligence-Sharing Agreement, October 2025. The Pacific Islands face cascading difficulties arising from great power competition and a range of overlapping transnational governance, environmental, and technological challenges. The Pacific Islands have become an arena of intensifying geopolitical competition, with Beijing making unprecedented inroads. China’s secretive 2022 security pact with Solomon Islands signalled a new phase, raising fears of a future Chinese military presence in Australia’s immediate neighbourhood. Since then, China has dispatched police advisers across the region, signed an action plan for a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Cook Islands, and increased the frequency of its naval and coastguard deployments in Pacific Island waters...

  

Lowy

Pacific Aid Map, October 2025. The global development landscape faces a moment of profound upheaval as major donors, most notably the United States, sharply cut back on foreign aid. These reductions carry far-reaching consequences, not only for sustainable development in the world’s poorest countries, but also in the contest for influence between China and Western nations. The Pacific Islands face an especially uncertain outlook as the world’s most aid-dependent region, confronting both large development financing gaps and an aid landscape increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition. Against such a backdrop, this eighth edition of the Pacific Aid Map presents five key findings that are critical to understanding the future of development and competition in the region...

  

Lowy

The People’s Liberation Army: Modernised but Still Mistrusted, October 2025. Modernisation is at the core of the mission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to change the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and beyond—to ‘set off a wave of modernisation in the Global South,’ as China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping has urged. This is all about party control. This naturally incorporates the party’s military arm: the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi has stressed that it means accelerating the PLA’s development into ‘a world-class army’ capable of seizing and holding down Taiwan, which in recent decades the party has insisted is an integral part of the PRC, even though the PRC has never ruled it...

  

ASPI

The Women, Peace and Security Agenda at 25: Views From the Strategist, October 2025. On 31 October, 2000, the United Nations Security Council passed the landmark Resolution 1325 and created the Women, Peace and Security agenda. To commemorate the resolution’s 25th anniversary, ASPI has released this compendium which features a collection of articles published on The Strategist. This series reflects on the progress made since 2000, including the transformative changes in women’s representation across security. More women are performing in combat roles, participating in peace processes and representing their nations in multilateral institutions...

  

ASPI

ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN (7th Edition), October 2025. The 7th edition of ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN covers US relations with the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Topics include: diplomatic and defense ties, trade and investment (with spotlights on the digital economy, agriculture, semiconductor chips, health, and energy and infrastructure sectors), job creation, travel and tourism, student exchanges, ASEAN Americans, and sister relationships. This publication was produced in partnership with the US-ASEAN Business Council and the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

  

EWC

Vietnam Matters for America / America Matters for Vietnam, October 2025. This project explores the important and multifaceted relationship between the United States and Vietnam at the national, state, and local levels. Part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, this publication and the website AsiaMattersforAmerica.org provide tools for a global audience to explore the growing connections in the US-Vietnam relationship in the 21st century.

  

EWC

Archipelago in the Crossfire: Indonesia Between Washington and Beijing, October 2025. As strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia has become a critical arena of competition. Positioned at the center of this contest is Indonesia, one of the region’s most politically influential countries and a leading member of ASEAN. Given its strategic importance, Jakarta is likely to become a central focus for both Beijing and Washington as they vie to advance their competing interests in the region. Examining Indonesia’s past political relationships with the two leading powers of the Indo-Pacific offers valuable insight into how past interactions may shape Jakarta’s political decision-making in the event of a major regional crisis that might threaten the existing balance of power...

  

ISDP

NATO Engagement in the Indo-Pacific? A Three-Country Case Study: India, Indonesia & the Philippines, October 2025. Notwithstanding some overlap in NATO’s core interests with India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, particularly deterrence and crisis prevention, in its current incarnation, direct NATO cooperation with these three pivotal countries in the Indo-Pacific is difficult to reconcile. The Indo-Pacific strategic landscape and the unpredictability characterizing the second Trump administration make Indo-Pacific partners hedge even more, such that most resident actors oppose any factor or actor that may destabilize the region. This is reflected by India and Indonesia’s disinterest in direct traditional security cooperation with NATO...

  

ISDP

The Dragon in the North: On China’s Arctic Push, October 2025. China’s self-proclamation as a “near-Arctic state” and its recent deployment of icebreakers near Alaska illustrate its growing Arctic push. In response, the United States has reinforced surveillance and naval reconnaissance through Operation Frontier Sentinel, commissioned the heavy icebreaker USCGC Storis, and coordinated NATO patrols across the northern waters. The Arctic giant, Russia, combines militarization with economic development by reviving Soviet-era bases along the Northern Sea Route and testing advanced weaponry while concurrently seeking investors for Arctic energy resources...

  

ISDP

North Korea’s Ascension as a Global Player: Security Implications and Diplomatic Challenges, October 2025. Over the past few years, North Korea has undergone a dramatic transformation from an isolated pariah state to an increasingly influential global actor, reshaping security dynamics in Asia and beyond. Kim Jong Un’s international standing, elevated by the Trump summits of 2018–2019 and then again through Pyongyang’s deepening alignment with Moscow since 2022, has direct security implications that reach far beyond Northeast Asia. These developments demand that the U.S. and its allies adapt their strategies to counter the growing threat posed by Pyongyang. The structural shift in North Korea’s global position carries profound implications, including accelerated North Korean military modernization through Russian support...

  

ISDP

Why the Republic of Korea Matters to the Nordic Countries, September 2025. The global situation is increasingly insecure, with, among others, an unpredictable U.S. isolating itself from traditional allies, a Sino-American geopolitical struggle that threatens to destabilize international affairs. Both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Nordic states are in this scenario, striving to reestablish collaboration with the U.S while also diversifying their relations to mitigate dangers to their national security by boosting cooperation with like-minded allies. This Asia paper aims to highlight some current areas of cooperation with the intent of emphasizing the importance and compatibility of Nordic-ROK cooperation...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #20: Re-Examining the Five-Point Consensus and ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Crisis. The Five-Point Consensus (5PC) encapsulates ASEAN’s response to the Myanmar crisis precipitated by the military’s seizure of power on 1 February 2021. As criticism about the effectiveness of ASEAN continue to mount, the current chair of the association has proposed the appointment of a “permanent” special envoy by extending its term beyond one year. In addition to revisiting its tenure, ASEAN should also consider providing the special envoy with the necessary political backing, adequate funding and efficient administrative support. More importantly, ASEAN needs to expand its mandate from an exclusive focus on conflict management to conflict resolution...

  

ISEAS

Connected Yet Conflicted: Exploring the Effects of Screen Use on Well-being and Relationships, October 2025. This study examines how screen use relates to well‑being and family dynamics in Singapore, surveying 1,033 parents in Sept–Oct 2024; 517 of these formed matched parent–teenager pairs, plus a booster of 195 lower‑income parents to surface socio‑economic differences: 1) Digital Life Today: Screens are deeply woven into daily routines. On average, teenagers reported 8 hours 21 minutes of screen use per day, while parents averaged 8 hours 44 minutes. Smartphones and computers were the most commonly used devices...

  

IPS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC

Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 2025 (Full Report). This issue explores topics including low-carbon development, progress in addressing stunting, education expansion as a tool for reducing infant and maternal mortality, and the impact of childhood vaccination on human capital formation.

   ADB
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ADB
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ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

October 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Asian Development Outlook, September 2025 (Full Report, Analytical Chapter, and Highlights). The region’s outlook will be shaped by offsetting factors. Higher US tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty will weigh on economic activity. Robust domestic demand, electronics and AI-driven exports, and policy support will help cushion external headwinds. Inflation will continue to moderate, as energy and food prices ease further. Downside risks stem from renewed tariff hikes, geopolitical tensions, further deterioration in the PRC’s property market, and financial market volatility. Policymakers should intensify efforts to bolster resilience, relying on sound macroeconomic policies and fostering regional cooperation and integration.

  

ADB

Energy Transition Pathways and Partnerships: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, September 2025. Amid a shifting global landscape and ambitious growth targets, Vietnam is undertaking a critical energy transition to ensure national security and achieve its 2050 net-zero emissions commitment. This paper explores Vietnam’s strategic pathways toward a green, digital, and innovation-driven energy model, emphasizing the importance of institutional reforms and climate finance and underpinned by its recently adjusted Power Development Plan VIII (PDP 8)...

  

EWC

Humanitarian Operation Migrants and People-to-People Diplomacy: US-Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, September 2025. This paper examines how Vietnamese migrants, especially from the Humanitarian Operation program after the Vietnam War, have quietly transformed Vietnam–US relations. Findings show that by sharing their stories, values, and traditions in everyday life, migrants form a foundation for later Vietnamese arrivals and reshape how Americans perceive Vietnam. Human ties remain the most enduring and transformative element in Vietnam–US relations. This bottom-up approach to diplomacy reveals how ordinary individuals can bridge divides and sustain meaningful engagement beyond official channels.

  

EWC

Bougainville’s Future: A Roadmap for Development, September 2025. Despite an overwhelming vote for independence in the 2019 referendum, Bougainville’s continued underperformance in socio-economic development casts doubt over its future as a sovereign polity. The singular focus of Bougainville’s elected leaders on the goal of independence has overshadowed the practical challenges of running a new country and how political independence will deliver prosperity for Bougainvilleans. Prosperity should be measured in terms of improved quality of life for Bougainvilleans. The partisan narrative of “independence or nothing” has encouraged a belief that independence is the panacea to development challenges...

  

Lowy

Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Influence Index 2025. Southeast Asia is one of the most geopolitically contested regions of the world. It engages the interest of superpowers China and the United States, Indo‑Pacific powers such as Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea, and those from further afield, including European countries. The Southeast Asia Influence Index provides the first comprehensive analysis of the relative importance of these partners for each Southeast Asian country across five dimensions of influence, as well as analysis of the important relationships between Southeast Asian countries themselves...

  

Lowy

Space Logistics: Why Rules Matter for Safety, Security and Sustainability, September 2025. With space activities expanding at an unprecedented rate, driven in part by a growing number of commercial players, space logistics is becoming increasingly critical to ensure the sustainable use of space. Space logistics encompasses a range of activities, including the remote maintenance of satellites in orbit, delivering supplies to space stations and satellites—possibly in the future to lunar and Martian habitats—and efforts to address the growing problem of space debris. The key issues that need to be addressed related to space logistics are the dual-use nature of rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs), their consequences in terms of space debris, and the sustainability and governance of the arena...

  

ASPI

Hyperscale Cloud and Shared Security in the Indo-Pacific: Views From the Strategist, August 2025. Across the Indo-Pacific, cloud computing is no longer a niche technology conversation. It is the substrate of contemporary national security and economic resilience. From battlefield logistics to health systems, from real-time crisis response to AI development, hyperscale cloud infrastructure is becoming the engine room of state capacity. As strategic competition sharpens across the region, that transformation is taking on clearer dimensions. Cloud infrastructure, such as undersea cables, is now a strategic national asset. Its security, interoperability and governance are becoming critical tests of sovereignty and trust...

  

ASPI

Curbing the Cost of Cybersecurity Fragmentation: An Agenda for Harmonisation Across the Indo-Pacific, August 2025. This report documents the width and depth of fragmentation of cybersecurity regulation in the Indo-Pacific—focusing on Australia, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. It investigates whether the divergent regulatory burdens placed on the private sector is creating a systemic vulnerability and therefore deserves a strategic policy response. We conclude that there is a strong degree of coherence in the principles and overall approaches to cybersecurity governance, but that fragmentation arises primarily at the level of implementation...

  

ASPI

Scamland Myanmar: How Conflict and Crime Syndicates Built a Global Fraud Industry, August 2025. While it’s commonly understood that conflict-affected landscapes can often act as safe havens for transnational organised crime, little attention is paid to the central role that state actors play. In those areas, criminal networks can operate with impunity, frequently feeding into the conflict and subsistence economy. Those groups exploit law-enforcement gaps and complex territorial control patterns to capitalise on the prevailing disorder. However, in some cases, they find ways to integrate into the wartime economy through close collaboration with state authorities. A recent example of this is the late Assad regime’s dependence on the illegal drug trade, specifically the large-scale production and export of Captagon...

  

ASPI

Political and Diplomatic Implications of South Korean Defense Cooperation with NATO: The Case of Sweden, September 2025. South Korea’s new administration seeks closer defense industrial cooperation with NATO, but also engagement with NATO adversaries, Russia and North Korea. For NATO’s newest member Sweden, defense cooperation with South Korea raises questions about security linkages between the Indo-Pacific and the Korean Peninsula, where it has historically played a unique diplomatic role. This policy brief explores the compatibility of South Korean and Swedish policy goals in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific through three aspects...

  

ISDP

Revitalizing Transatlantic Defense: Lessons from Central Europe’s Security Innovation, September 2025. Europe’s post-Cold War demilitarization has led to critical defense dependencies on the United States, a vulnerability exposed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing signals of potential U.S. retrenchment. These developments have prompted a strategic reassessment among European NATO members, who now acknowledge the urgent need to increase defense investments to uphold collective security. The recent Hague Summit represents a pivotal moment, as allies begin to view burden-sharing not as a concession to American pressure but as an existential imperative...

  

ISDP

Japan’s Official Security Assistance to the Philippines: Legitimizing a New Strategic Tool, September 2025. Both Japan and the Philippines are navigating an increasingly intricate security landscape, in which various actors––China being the most significant––are making unilateral efforts to alter the regional power dynamics. The tensions are particularly concentrated in the maritime domain, with the Philippines emerging as a prominent adversary of China’s actions in the South China Sea. Numerous questions remain regarding the aid program’s future trajectory. This issue brief examines how the Japanese government establishes legitimacy to extend its Official Security Assistance (OSA) to the Philippines...

  

ISDP

Crossroads After the 2025 EU-China Summit, September 2025. Despite an initial rethaw of official ties earlier in the year, the 2025 EU-China Summit was marked by diplomatic frictions, cancellations, and last-minute adjustments. The meeting produced modest outcomes on export controls, climate targets, and regulatory cooperation—incremental steps with uncertain substance. Yet the narrow scope of deliverables reflected Beijing’s reluctance to address core EU concerns, while Brussels faced down parallel pressures from transatlantic trade disputes and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. More a crossroads than a jubilee for Brussels, the summit highlighted the weight of unresolved trade frictions and China’s deepening ties with Russia...

  

ISDP

The “New” Frontier: Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and its Geopolitical Implications, September 2025. This book examines Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic and forms part of a series of research projects at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). Its aim is to enhance understanding of the extent to which Russia and China cooperate across different policy areas. Although the Arctic remains highly relevant in global geopolitics, it has been largely neglected in recent years due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other militarized conflicts. This volume brings together insights from 12 scholars with diverse areas of expertise, offering both a broad and in-depth perspective on the region and the dynamics of Sino-Russian cooperation, or lack thereof...

  

ISDP

China’s Climate Commitments and the Tibetan Paradox: An Argument for Accountability under the UNFCCC, September 2025. China today is the second-largest economy and the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It plays a pivotal role in any global climate resolution. Yet its internal environmental practices, especially in the ecologically critical region of Tibet, have raised questions about the consistency of its international commitments with its local governance models. Its classification as a “developing country” within the UNFCCC structure also does not reflect its economic and geopolitical stature. Additionally, China’s efforts to attain global climate leadership are undermined by a lack of full transparency...

  

ISDP

Iran’s Interpretation of the Law of the Sea and Japan’s FOIP Strategy, September 2025. Given Japan’s heavy reliance on maritime routes for foreign trade, its ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy is closely tied to the rule of law at sea, maritime security, and freedom of navigation. Furthermore, due to Japan’s dependence on energy supplies from the Persian Gulf and the critical importance of securing energy transit routes, this strategy also extends to the Persian Gulf region. In this context, Tokyo emphasizes the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and its own Ocean Policy. Meanwhile, Iran, despite having signed UNCLOS, has not ratified it and implements its provisions selectively...

  

ISDP

Moral Attitudes in Flux: Comparing Trends across Religions in Singapore, August 2025. Singapore's multireligious compact — built on freedom of belief and a shared civic space — has to reckon with debates on family, sexuality, and individual choice. Against this backdrop, this paper draws on the 2024 IPS Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), a nationally representative study of 4,000 residents. Where relevant, these responses are compared with results from the 2013 and 2018 RRL waves. Our aim is to chart how Singaporeans evaluate everyday moral questions (from gambling and fidelity to cohabitation, premarital sex, divorce and same-sex issues); how these views differ by age and religious tradition and how they have shifted over the past decade within Singapore's distinctive multicultural framework...

  

IPS

Religious Identity and Practice among Singaporeans, August 2025. This report presents findings from the 2024 Institute of Policy Studies' Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), which obtained responses from a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singapore residents, and compares these findings with prior surveys from 2013 and 2018. It examines identity dimensions that are important to Singaporeans, particularly religion, the practice of religion, the level of religiosity in Singapore today and how it has evolved, as well as the different profiles of Singaporeans in terms of how they relate to religion in their daily lives...

  

IPS

Prejudice, Attitudes and Critical Perspectives on Race in Singapore, July 2025. Singapore’s multicultural compact, historically anchored in principles of equality and harmony, faces renewed scrutiny amid global debates on racial justice, prejudice, and identity politics. As international discourses on Critical Race Theory (CRT) and structural inequality increasingly permeate local conversations, it is imperative to assess how these global trends intersect with local understandings of race and prejudice. Motivated by this context, this report presents findings from the 2024 Institute of Policy Studies' Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), which canvassed responses from a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singapore residents, and compares these findings with prior surveys from 2013 and 2018...

  

IPS

Borrowing Berlo: Enhancing Public Understanding of Singapore's Online Harms Laws, July 2025. Singapore’s approach to online harms is both ambitious and multifaceted. From misinformation and digital abuse to election interference and foreign influence, a growing body of legislation has emerged over the past decade to regulate behaviour and protect citizens in the digital domain. These laws are comprehensive and arguably world-leading; but for the average citizen, policymaker or media professional, they can feel like an alphabet soup, e.g.,POHA, POFMA, OCHA, FICA, CMA, ELIONA, and soon, OSRAA (see Figure 1). Legislation plays important roles, such as providing the authorities with the necessary levers to act against offences and perpetrators and giving victims legal recourse to seek justice and compensation for the harms they suffer...

  

IPS

Friendships in Flux: Generational and Socio-Economic Divides in Singapore, May 2025. This working paper, Friendships in Flux: Generational and Socio-Economic Divides in Singapore, is based on data from the IPS Survey on Race, Religion, and Language (RRL) survey, conducted across three iterations (2013, 2018, and 2024). While the overarching survey comprises multiple thematic sections mostly associated with race, religion (R&R), and language — ranging from identity markers to policy issues — this paper spotlights a subset of question items on close friendships and respondents' willingness to interact across demographic lines. Specifically, we examine how generational cohorts (younger vs. older) and socio-economic status (particularly education level and income) influence both the number of close friendships and individuals' perceptions of engaging in cross-R&R and cross-SES social interactions...

  

IPS
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September 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2025 (Full Report):

Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific covers 50 ADB regional member economies: Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Niue, New Zealand, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taipei, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Türkiye, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, and Viet Nam.

  

ADB

Navigating Global Value Chains and Economics in 2025: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, August 2025. Vietnam has emerged as an indispensable link in Indo-Pacific manufacturing networks. The country’s strategic advantage lies in its ability to adapt to shifting policies while mitigating risks from trade frictions. To sustain these gains, Vietnam must invest strategically in long-term competitiveness by upgrading workforce skills, improving infrastructure, and climbing the value chain through enhanced design and innovation capabilities. Vietnam’s adaptability has made it a prime beneficiary of the ongoing realignment in global supply chains driven by US trade policy changes. Tariffs on Chinese goods and broader efforts to "de-risk" supply lines have prompted many manufacturers to expand operations in Vietnam, sharply boosting exports and investment...

  

EWC

Defense and Security Cooperation as a Pillar of Engagement: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, August 2025. The elevation of Vietnam–US relations in September 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest tier in Vietnam’s current diplomatic hierarchy, not only reflects Hanoi’s ongoing efforts to diversify its international relations but also underscores the strategic weight assigned to its ties with Washington. The CSP would have been improbable without sustained progress in defense and security cooperation, which has served both as a catalyst for mutual trust and as a practical mechanism for advancing more substantive, effective collaboration. The past decade has been instrumental in institutionalizing cooperation in defense and security between Vietnam and the United States at a time when mutual trust was still being carefully built and consolidated. This institutionalization has carried a dual-layered significance...

  

EWC

Observations on the State of Cybersecurity in Southeast Asia, August 2025. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated Southeast Asia's digital transformation, fueling economic growth across the region. By mid-2025, digital economies in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have largely surpassed expectations, contributing significantly to their GDPs and attracting substantial investment. However, this rapid digital development has brought a sharp increase in cybersecurity risks. The region has become a prime target for cyberattacks, accounting for 31 percent of global incidents in 2023. This paper investigates the complexities of Southeast Asia's cybersecurity landscape, classifying nations based on their capabilities (Developed, Developing, Emerging, Limited). It highlights common challenges, which include significant gaps in technology and skilled personnel, unique national cybersecurity priorities, the US-China competition...

  

EWC

Southeast Asia’s Evolving Defence Partnerships, August 2025. Southeast Asian countries have diversified their defence partnerships amid intensifying strategic competition and regional security challenges. While the United States and China remain key security actors, countries in the region are engaging with a broader array of external partners to enhance their autonomy and military capabilities. Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea are all important defence partners for the region, offering capacity-building, training, and technology cooperation. These partnerships reflect Southeast Asia’s search for resilience through engagement with multiple partners while avoiding overdependence on any single actor.

  

Lowy

How to Scale up Australia’s Investment in Pacific Climate Adaptation, August 2025. Pacific Island countries are among the most climate vulnerable in the world and face huge unmet adaptation financing needs, especially for investment in physical infrastructure. Australia has recently made progress in scaling up its investment, but its main mechanisms for doing so — the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific (AIFFP) and its dedicated climate window — have almost run out of concessional financing firepower. Australian investment is still modest relative to the Pacific’s financing needs, but an increase will require difficult trade-offs given the limited scope to lift the overall Australian aid budget. The Pacific’s extreme climate vulnerability means investing more in climate adaptation is good for the region’s development. It is also smart diplomacy, providing highly visible and tangible evidence of Australian support on the Pacific’s most pressing concern...

  

Lowy

Northern Australia: Securing a Developing Economy to Secure a Developed Nation, August 2025. Northern Australia is central to the nation’s future. Economically, it serves as the gateway to Indo-Pacific trade, is home to world-class resources and represents a frontier of opportunity. Strategically, it’s the keystone of Australia’s national defence posture. Yet, despite its immense importance, the region continues to face persistent structural challenges, including limited private-sector investment; low local economic capture from major projects; workforce and service deficits; and deteriorating public safety indicators. The Northern Australia Action Plan 2024–2029 describes a refreshed agenda for the north, encompassing economic development and delivering on a broad range of government priorities to support the region’s success...

  

ASPI

Australia-Indonesia Defence and Security Partnership: Overcoming Asymmetric Aspirations to Tackle Common Threats, August 2025. Australian officials accustomed to dealing with Indonesia are cognisant of the limitations to strategic cooperation, but Canberra needs to be more realistic and creative in how it approaches the critical relationship with Jakarta. Australia places greater strategic value on the relationship with Indonesia than vice versa. That dynamic is unlikely to change fundamentally. Optimism and ambition will still be needed to achieve a more balanced partnership, but it’s also crucial that Australian policymakers ground their expectations in this reality. Politicians, in particular, should guard against optimism bias. There are still plenty of opportunities for both countries to engage more deeply across a range of shared security challenges...

  

ASPI

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #19: Nahdlatul Ulama and its Political Engagement with Indonesian Presidents, August 2025 Since Indonesia adopted a direct presidential election in 2004, which applies a one-man, one-vote system, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country’s largest Muslim organization, has played an increasingly significant role in elections. Candidates actively develop ties with the organization’s leaders and vast voter base to improve their chances of winning elections. Factors driving the political engagement between Indonesia’s presidents and NU are arguably contingent on the dynamics of the existing political situation. Whereas material or transactional factors defined the political engagement between NU and presidents Soeharto, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo Subianto, the relationships were driven mainly by ideological factors under the administrations of Soekarno and Joko Widodo...

  

ISEAS

Creating ‘Facts on the Mountains’: China’s Gray Zone Playbook in the Himalayas, August 2025. China’s policy in the Himalayas represents a calculated and systematic application of the gray zone strategy previously honed in its maritime territorial disputes. Rather than relying solely on direct military action, Beijing employs a military-civil fusion model to reshape the strategic landscape along the border. Central to this effort is an aggressive infrastructure push—building roads, railways, airfields, and strategically placed border villages—that alters the region’s logistical and demographic realities. These developments serve to establish de facto control without crossing the threshold of open conflict, gradually shifting the status quo in China’s favor...

  

ISDP

Xi Jinping in Lhasa: Spectacular Delusions, August 2025. The spectacular party-state has a frontier construction theory that classifies Tibet as a national security risk, because Tibet is full of Tibetans, for whom the Party’s interest do not come first. Partly this is because party-speak makes no sense. Then you discover “promote the construction of the Chinese nation’s community” means abandoning one’s mother tongue, opting instead to believe not only are you really racially Chinese, so too were all your deluded ancestors. Xi Jinping flies to Lhasa to inspect his campaign to rectify the minds of the Tibetans. On cue the assembled Tibetans duly perform in song and dance their enthusiasm for discovering they are actually Chinese, embracing Chinese characteristics smothered on everything Tibetan, declaiming their love for the core leader because the Party’s interests always come first...

  

ISDP

Taiwan’s National Security Strategy under Trump 2.0, August 2025. Compared to the cautious restraint of his first term, Trump 2.0 exudes confidence and the demeanor of a domineering CEO in a context of international politics. By fully leveraging America’s unparalleled economic and military influence, within less than a year after returning to office, Trump has already stirred global unrest. Trump 2.0 has shifted U.S. global strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s rise, especially prioritizing military deterrence against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. His framing of China as America’s primary strategic adversary offers an opportunity for strategic alignment with Taiwan. In response, President Lai Ching-te introduced the “Four Pillars of Peace action plan”—strengthening defense, economic security, alliances with democracies, and dignified cross-Strait engagement—to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific stability...

  

ISDP

The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet, August 2025. The expansion of the Tibet Military Region represents a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and environmental preservation, creating complex challenges for both regional security and global climate patterns. This policy brief focuses on the larger environmental impact of Chinese militarization in Tibet, acknowledging limitations in assessing effects on local communities due to restricted access for independent researchers, but also the lack of reporting on the Chinese attempts to counter the climate impact. Current approaches to military development in Tibet are creating environmental changes that extend far beyond the immediate footprint of military activities. These changes threaten not only local ecosystems but regional climate stability and water security for hundreds of millions of people downstream...

  

ISDP

Strengthening the Liberal International Order through Enhanced Korea–Nordic Cooperation, August 2025. The global governance landscape is at a critical turning point. The foundations of the liberal international order—such as the multilateral trading system and shared norms and rules—are weakening, while the spread of authoritarianism, deepening geopolitical instability, and the United States’ shift toward selective engagement have created a widening leadership vacuum. In this regard, the need for new strategic partnerships to defend and renew the liberal, rules-based order has become more urgent than ever. Strategic cooperation between South Korea and the European Union—particularly through closer engagement with the Nordic countries—offers a promising model for addressing these challenges. As a dynamic democracy shaped by the liberal order, South Korea is well positioned to help shape global standards and practices...

  

ISDP
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Addressing Maritime Security in Smaller South Asian States: Opportunities for US, Indian, and International Partnerships, July 2025. Under the dominant US paradigm of great-power competition, the maritime domain as a concept can often be viewed as shorthand for maintaining open access to sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and assuring sufficient deterrence against Chinese and Russian maritime coercion. The December 2020 joint US Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard Maritime Strategy emphasized these points. While these issues are important, this framing downplays two key US and global security factors...

  

EWC

Bangladesh's Maritime Security: Emerging Threats and Responses, July 2025. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is strategically and economically vital for Bangladesh, supporting 90 percent of its trade and 100 percent of its energy transportation. It has critical geopolitical significance for Bangladesh as an influential littoral state of the BoB, connected with the Indian Ocean. The country faces maritime security threats, particularly non-traditional ones, from port security to human trafficking. Peaceful settlement of maritime disputes with Myanmar and India in the early 2010s transformed Bangladesh into a maritime nation. For such a maritime-dependent economy, ensuring maritime security is essential for the country’s progress and stability...

  

EWC

Maritime Security Challenges in the Maldives, July 2025. The Maldives faces intense, interconnected, and growing maritime security challenges. Out of these, the most serious maritime security threats are natural disasters associated with climate change, as demonstrated by the consequences of the Tsunami of 2004 in which 12,000 people became homeless, 21 out of 87 tourist resorts had to be closed, while six suffered major damage and had to be rebuilt. Some islands had to be fully evacuated, and their populations relocated to other inhabited islands...

  

EWC

Enhancing Maritime Security in Sri Lanka, July 2025. Sri Lanka's strategic location at the crossroads of the Indian Ocean renders it a pivotal actor in regional and global maritime security. As the Indo-Pacific becomes the epicenter of renewed great power competition and
nontraditional security threats, Sri Lanka faces mounting challenges that stem from geopolitical tensions, illegal fishing, transnational crime, and environmental degradation. This paper assesses the key maritime threats confronting Sri Lanka and evaluates the country's capacity to respond to these evolving dynamics...

  

EWC

Southeast Asia Aid Map: 2025 Key Findings, July 2025. Southeast Asia finds itself at an uncertain moment in its development trajectory. The region’s highly successful export-driven economic model is at risk as the Trump administration looks to dramatically reshape the global trade order, with Southeast Asia potentially facing especially punitive US tariffs. At the same time, official development finance (ODF) to the region — encompassing traditional aid, such as grants and concessional loans (ODA), as well as other official flows (OOF) from foreign governments and multilateral bodies — is set to decrease as major Western donors cut back on foreign aid...

  

Lowy

Match-Fit for the Global Contest?: Innovation, Leadership, Culture and the Future of Australia’s National Intelligence Community, July 2025. The business model of the Australian national intelligence community (NIC), including the ways in which the NIC collects intelligence, analyses that intelligence and then provides it to busy senior customers, is being challenged. At the heart of that challenge lies the NIC’s relationship with innovation and its ability to take advantage of the opportunities that innovation can bring. Innovation matters to Australia because our ability to leverage it will be critical to overcoming Australia’s ‘national capacity’ problem in the coming decades...

  

ASPI

A Critical Juncture: Sustaining and Strengthening the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, July 2025. Australia’s intelligence community has long served as a quiet cornerstone of national security, adapting to evolving threats with professionalism and bipartisan trust. But today’s strategic environment—defined by cyber threats, foreign interference and grey-zone competition—demands more from our intelligence services than ever before. As agencies expand their roles across economic, technological and geopolitical domains, oversight mechanisms must also evolve in tandem to ensure accountability, transparency and public trust...

  

ASPI

Europe’s Green Technology Development: Chinese Challenges to Research and Innovation Security, July 2025. As Europe pursues its ambitious Green Deal objectives, the continent faces complex challenges in balancing open scientific collaboration with the need to protect strategic green technologies and intellectual property. This issue brief investigates the evolving dynamics between European green development initiatives and emerging research security concerns related to China’s growing technological influence. The analysis examines Europe’s vulnerability in critical green technology supply chains, the implications of China’s targeted research investments, and emerging policy frameworks to screen foreign investments while maintaining innovation competitiveness...

  

ISDP

Safeguarding the Global Chip Supply: Lessons from PRC’s Technology Acquisition Tactics in Taiwan, July 2025. Taiwan’s technological advantage, especially in the semiconductor sector, serves as a key factor for deterring a Chinese invasion. However, there are documented cases of the PRC using multiple strategies to acquire Taiwanese technologies to reduce its reliance on Taiwan, and international supply chains, before possible military action. This issue brief will aim to outline these strategies, which include industrial espionage, talent poaching, and the use of shell companies, investment channels and joint ventures for technological appropriation or further cross-strait integration. Amid intensifying Chinese efforts to appropriate Taiwanese technology, the EU and other Western allies must draw strategic lessons from Taiwan to protect their own supply chains and thereby increase their economic security.

  

ISDP

Safeguarding the Indo-Pacific Region: Insights from Australia on Maritime Security, July 2025. In an era marked by rapid geopolitical transformation and unprecedented technological advances, maritime security in the Indo-Pacific has become a critical imperative for both national and regional stability. On April 8, 2025, the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), in collaboration with Murdoch University Study on Human Security and the Indo-Pacific, organized a talk with Dr. Thomas S. Wilkins on the topic Safeguarding the Indo-Pacific Region: Insights from Australia, India, and Japan on Human/Maritime Security. Dr. Wilkins is a Distinguished Research Fellow (non-resident) at The Japan Forum for International Relations and an Associate Professor in International Security at the University of Sydney, specializing in Asia-Pacific security affairs...

  

ISDP

China’s Military-Civil Fusion in Space: Strategic Transformations and Implications for Europe, June 2025. China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy is a multi-purpose tool to enhance national power, accelerate technological innovation, and drive industrial and economic development. MCF has reshaped China’s space sector, driving rapid innovation and fostering the rise of private commercial space actors aligned with national security and industrial goals. Europe has already been outpaced by both China and the U.S. in key space capabilities, weakening its defense posture and reducing its strategic influence in a domain that is increasingly shaping the broader geopolitical balance. Without credible capabilities, the EU risks being sidelined from setting the rules and standards in the space domain, limiting its ability to defend strategic interests and values...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #18: The Democratic Action Party at Sixty: Struggles over Seniority, Structure and Strategy. Traditionally an opposition outfit, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) has evolved to become a mainstream operation. A consequential player in Malaysian politics, it now has forty members of parliament and ninety state assembly representatives. Because of its cadre-based structure, the DAP usually has orderly party elections. Nonetheless, foundational issues have caused some disagreements to bubble to the surface—most recently at the 2025 National Party Congress. Now approaching its sixtieth year, the party is grappling with three key challenges...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #17: Youth Perceptions of Income Inequality in Six Southeast Asian Countries. While much research has explored how perceptions of income inequality influence political outcomes—such as political participation, behaviour, and support for democracy—less attention has been given to how a country’s economic and political conditions shape these perceptions. This article argues that economic outlook and political stability play a crucial role in shaping how youths perceive income inequality. A youth and civic engagement survey conducted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute between August and October 2024 found that Indonesian, Filipino and Thai youths are the most pessimistic about the economic prospects and political conditions of their countries. This bleak outlook aligns closely with their negative perceptions of income inequality...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #16: Myanmar’s Uncharted Territories: Pitfalls and Prospects in Emergent Forms of Governance. An escalation of violence in Myanmar has led to a significant loss of territories by the Myanmar junta and reconfigured the country’s political terrain. The territories can presently be characterized broadly into Junta-controlled areas with low resistance, junta-controlled areas with high resistance, active armed conflict areas, areas controlled by highly vulnerable non-state armed groups, areas controlled by non-state armed groups that are not as vulnerable, and border areas sheltering internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. Each of these are evolving on a weekly or monthly basis, igniting both optimistic and pessimistic responses from Myanmar civilians and policy/scholar communities...

  

ISEAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q3, July 2025. Hong Kong’s economic growth accelerated to 3.1% in 25Q1, primarily driven by the surge in exports as shipments were rushed ahead of anticipated trade tensions. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 25Q2, a moderation from the 25Q1 quarter that reflects the impact of the ongoing China-US trade uncertainties. Shifts in consumer behavior and rising cross-border consumption have contributed to a more challenging business environment in Hong Kong. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.6% in 25Q3...

  

HKU

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The Importance of Taiwanese Business in the Evolving US Policy Toward China, June 2025. Taiwanese businesses have played a key role in the effectiveness of the US policy toward China over the past few decades. During the Cold War era, the close political ties paved the way for an intimate business relationship between Taiwan and the United States. Taiwanese small businesses’ close collaboration with US multinational corporations contributed to Taiwan’s economic miracle that sustained the island’s national defense expenditure and reduced the US military burden, in the face of the potential armed conflict with China. After the US-China reconciliation, their huge investments in China ensured the mainland followed the same East Asia’s export-oriented economic development model, thus contributing to the US policy of integrating China into the global economy at the time...

  

EWC

Climate Change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, May 2025. Growing challenges from sea level rise and risks to water and food security and human health are among the major issues detailed in this report on climate change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Considerations for managing threatened resources, including fresh water, fisheries, and infrastructure, are outlined in the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is a report developed by PIRCA. It is one in a series of reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and the Hawaiian archipelago...

  

EWC

The World According to Xi Jinping, June 2025. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has upended geopolitics with his unpredictable, transactional, and often chaotic approach to foreign policy. But he has not changed Xi Jinping’s policy calculations. Rather, he has solidified them and created openings for Xi to drive a wedge into US alliances. Xi remains committed to turning China into a prosperous, high-tech superpower that will be able not just to challenge the United States, but to surpass it in many areas. Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy is built on a foundation of growing economic size and military clout. Xi has been able to pursue the Chinese Communist Party’s longstanding aims more aggressively because he has the economic, military, and diplomatic tools to do so...

  

Lowy

Net Assessments for Australia, June 2025. Established in 2023 in the Australian Department of Defence, net assessments will play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of the Australian Defence Force, disciplining long-term capability decisions to a series of key scenarios of concern. With Australia’s security requirements ranging across many more domains — and dependent on careful analysis of trends and networks beyond its shores — four additional Directorates of Net Assessment should be established, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Home Affairs, Treasury, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet...

  

Lowy

Shifting the Needle: Making Australia’s Research Security Ecosystem Work Smarter, June 2025. Since 2018, the Australian Government has made serious strides in countering espionage and foreign interference, including introducing policy and legislative reforms aimed at protecting the research and university sector. That was necessary. Foreign states have actively targeted Australia’s research ecosystem—seeking to influence research agendas, extract sensitive information and exploit institutional vulnerabilities. However, the threat landscape hasn’t remained static. It has evolved—and rapidly. Seven years on, adversaries are no longer simply stealing data or cultivating informal relationships...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 11, June 2025. Volume 11 also features a foreword by Senator the Hon Nita Green, Assistant Minister for Northern Australia. Senator Green calls readers attention to the Federal Government’s commitment to the North, while pointing to the rich opportunities available to northern Australia with the right continued investment. The 34 articles in this Compendium provide practical policy options which government could implement in the short term and the articles work together to create an overarching narrative that centres northern excellence. Thus, facilitating both the security and economic prosperity of northern Australia.

  

ASPI

From Domination to Co-creation: How Taiwan Sustains Semiconductor Leadership Through Adaptive Industrial Policy, June 2025. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, global supply chains are experiencing an unprecedented realignment. Semiconductors have emerged as a strategic asset, an industry where Taiwan has cemented global leadership. Its tech expertise, and robust democracy underpin Taiwan’s strategic value and reliability. While the EU has turned to large-scale subsidies to localize semiconductor production, Taiwan’s success is not the product of any single policy instrument, but reflects a long-term trajectory of institutional foresight, public-private synergy, and adaptive international engagement. As Taiwan’s experience shows, building lasting technological capacity requires more than subsidies...

  

ISDP

G7 Strategy for Countering Russian Information Operations in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Framework for Enhanced Multilateral Coordination and Response, June 2025. Russian Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) operations across the Indo-Pacific have evolved into sophisticated, multi-domain campaigns that systematically exploit political tensions and technological innovations. These operations demonstrate added complexity through strategic partnerships with China and North Korea, coordination with regional proxy networks, and alignment with right-wing nationalist movements spanning from Belgium to Japan. This expanded operational architecture enables Moscow to project influence across diverse political and cultural contexts, posing significant challenges to democratic institutions and the rules-based international order that the Group of Seven (G7) seek to preserve...

  

ISDP

Digital Sex Crimes on the Rise in South Korea, June 2025. South Korea is experiencing a rise in digital sex crimes, a trend likely linked to the growing number of young men expressing anti-feminist and sexist views toward women. Fueled by online forums known as the “manosphere,” groups of men, including a significant number of boys aged 10 to 14, congregate in these spaces to share misogynistic sentiments. Some users exploit the anonymity of the internet to commit digital sex crimes against women. These offenses vary in severity, ranging from voyeurism to sextortion. The emergence of advanced AI technologies has further enabled such crimes, presenting new challenges for authorities in Seoul...

  

ISDP

Climate and Environment in CCP’s Control Strategy in Tibet, June 2025. The Tibetan Plateau is warming rapidly, leading to significant ecological changes and threatening water security for millions. This issue brief examines the impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) governance on Tibet’s environment and the global environment. Rooted in Marxism-Leninism, the CCP’s governance model prioritizes Party control, resulting in policies that often neglect environmental and global concerns. The CCP’s development projects exacerbate these issues, causing habitat fragmentation and pollution. Social and cultural impacts include the erosion of Tibetan identity and traditional lifestyles. China’s global initiatives, such as the One Belt One Road program, further extend its development model, financing coal projects while resisting zero-emission initiatives...

  

ISDP

China’s 2025 Economic Playbook in a New Phase of Trade War, June 2025. Beijing’s economic targets for 2025 appear ambitious amid serious domestic and external challenges. This year’s plans show adjustments from previous years, focusing on domestic consumption, financial stability, and private sector support, where policy support is indeed essential. They also maintain continuity in technological advancement, reflecting Beijing’s enduring conviction that technology serves as the primary engine of economic growth. Meanwhile, Beijing has made extensive preparations for the greatest uncertainty of the year: the trade war. Are the proposed solutions sufficient to keep China on track? With Washington’s tariff increases and Beijing’s retaliatory measures now escalating into a full-scale trade war, a reassessment of China’s economic playbook has become urgent.

 

ISDP

Is Central Asia Stable? Conflict Risks and Drivers of Instability, May 2025. In 2022, violence erupted in four different areas of Central Asia. These episodes of violence were very different from each other, and all were contained within days or weeks. The region has seen little violence since. Yet their occurrence during a single year raised the question whether Central Asia is actually more prone to instability than a cursory overview would suggest. The episodes of violence in 2022 were varied: one was a conflict over territory between two states, while the other three were internal conflicts, featuring struggles over power and complex center-periphery relations. In Kazakhstan, demonstrations erupted in January 2022 but were hijacked by forces that sought to implement a coup attempt against the government, making the violence an issue over control over the country’s government...

  

ISDP

The State of Southeast Asia: 2025 Survey Report. The State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute reveals climate change as the region’s top challenge for the first time, followed by unemployment and economic recession, and intensifying economic tensions between the major powers. Concerns over aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, global scam operations and the new US leadership were the region’s overall top geopolitical concerns. Amidst these challenges, more than a third of regional respondents expressed concern that ASEAN was ineffective in coping with these political and economic developments, and that ASEAN was becoming irrelevant in the new world order.

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #15: Obstacles to Reform in Myanmar: Lessons from the Past, for a Better Future. Myanmar experienced a decade of reforms from 2011 to 2021 under the administrations of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National League for Democracy (NLD). But policymakers in both administrations were often ill-prepared to push the economy to its potential, and they were hindered by a lack of resources and beset by obstacles at every turn. Challenges have persisted into the efforts of the current State Administration Council (SAC) military regime to administer the country after the 2021 coup. Obstacles include bureaucratic inertia resisting reforms; lack of experience, exposure and technical knowledge; deep-rooted corruption; hasty decision-making to show strong leadership; and overconfident bureaucrats with narrow perspectives...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #14: Nuclear Energy Developments in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are once again showing renewed interest in nuclear energy as a means to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization goals. Countries in this region have been exploring the use of civilian nuclear energy since the late 1950s, but their commitment has fluctuated over the decades, influenced by factors such as government support for nuclear energy, and global nuclear events affecting public opinion. The latest interest follows the revival of global interest in nuclear energy and progress in the development of advanced nuclear reactors as well as small modular reactors (SMRs)...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #13: Reviving UMNO: Party Institutionalization and Coalition Management in Selangor and Malacca. Since Malaysia’s independence in 1957 until 2018, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) was the single dominant party in control of an authoritarian regime, having been the main party within the long-ruling National Front (Barisan Nasional, or BN). Since its fall from power in 2018, key events have reshaped its party structure, leadership and overall support. Today, it sits in a large-tent coalition at the federal level, is part of the state government in seven states, and of these, controls the position of chief minister in three...

  

ISEAS

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Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 2025 (Full Report). This issue explores lessons for addressing poverty and inequality in Asia and the Pacific. It also covers topics including working after retirement, medical insurance, education expenditure, and digital services.

   ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

June 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

DeepSeek and the Shifting AI Landscape in China and the US, May 2025. In early 2025, a powerful open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model from a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, emerged as a major challenger to US AI dominance. Delivering comparable performance at a fraction of the cost, it disrupted Silicon Valley’s proprietary, capital-intensive model, unsettled markets, and raised concerns about America’s technological leadership. This article examines DeepSeek’s technological, market, and geopolitical impact before contrasting China’s evolving AI strategy with that of the US. DeepSeek showcases the potential of open-source AI while highlighting challenges in scaling large models...

  

EWC

Empowering Blue Economy Communities through Data and Innovation, May 2025. As the blue economy grows in importance—encompassing sectors from fisheries and aquaculture to maritime transport and offshore energy—so too must our understanding of the families and communities who power it. Given the continuing rise in commercial fishing demand and aquaculture expansion, the importance of ocean resources for global food security and economic stability has become even more critical. Unsustainable practices like overfishing and ocean acidification further threaten both marine ecosystems and community livelihoods...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Why Australia and Japan Must Lead in Capacity Building in Southeast Asia, April 2025. Southeast Asian countries continue to face various maritime policy challenges. Beijing’s aggressive conduct toward other littoral states in the South China Sea and increased China-US tensions have highlighted the pervasiveness of traditional security threats while prospects for a more stable maritime order are undermined by the stalled negotiations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Integrating Whole-of-Government and Nation Approaches in the Philippines, April 2025. The Philippines faces mounting challenges in its maritime domain. This includes geopolitical tensions, criminal activities, environmental degradation, and socio-economic vulnerabilities in coastal communities. Institutional fragmentation and outdated policies further complicate these issues by hindering effective governance. To address these pressing concerns, revising and modernizing the National Maritime Security Policy and Strategy (NMSPP) is more than an administrative necessity. It is a strategic imperative...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Using Regional Maritime Information Sharing Centers to Form a Global Network, April 2025. Since the concept was first introduced in the early 2000s, the concept of Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) has become widely recognized as an important enabler for maritime security at the state and regional levels. A distinct manifestation of this development is the proliferation of a network of regional information sharing centers (ISCs) globally. While their mandates and set-ups vary, these ISCs have been instrumental in facilitating effective MDA through the collecting and consolidation of information from diverse sources and encouraging collaboration between maritime stakeholders...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Conceptualizing Navies as a Tool of Statecraft, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific’s maritime domain is a key arena in the rising China-United States strategic rivalry. However, viewing the maritime domain through the lens of strategic rivalry leads policymakers to focus on the traditional combat role of navies thereby obscuring the wider everyday role of sea power as a force in shaping and influencing the regional order. Yet navies offer policymakers many wider choices beyond the “thunder of battle,” especially for non-great powers who are unlikely to utilize sea power to impose their will through combat...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Combating Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing in the Indian Ocean Region, April 2025. Lines between traditional and non-traditional threats are diminishing, which has only heightened complexities for maritime security forces. While major maritime threats such as piracy, maritime terrorism, and smuggling are being countered by both regional and extra-regional forces in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), complex threats such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU) have largely remained unacknowledged as offenders skillfully exploit regulatory gaps and evade enforcement...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Indonesia's Pursuit of Effectivenes, April 2025. Indonesia, with its numerous islands and vast oceanic domain, plays a crucial role in shaping global maritime policies. From a historical perspective, a major success was its securing recognition as an archipelagic state in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a move that strengthened both its sovereignty and set important principles of international maritime law. However, despite such achievements, Indonesia continues to face significant maritime governance issues including illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, environmental degradation, smuggling, and piracy...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and the Case for a Bay of Bengal Coast Guard Forum, April 2025. The Bay of Bengal is an epicenter of non-traditional security threats. As such, coast guards in the sub-region have been at the forefront of managing and tackling security challenges. However, there is no institutional framework for enhancing the capacities of coast guards of the Bay of Bengal to take collaborative action. Therefore, creating a Bay of Bengal coast guard forum is an essential next step to addressing the non-traditional security threats and providing a platform to promote and institutionalize maritime best practices. The threats posed by non-state actors are the most pressing transnational vulnerabilities facing the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Developing a National Unified Maritime Strategy for Japan, April 2025. Japan makes securing sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) a critical national priority as its maritime transportation accounts for 99.6% of the trade volume as of 2023. Moreover, Japan has played a pivotal role as a maritime nation. Despite this emphasis on securing SLOCs, Japan still lacks strategic communication about its foreign policy priorities. Japan needs to more clearly articulate its strategic ends, ways, and means in the Indo-Pacific Region. Strategic communication uses words, actions, or images to achieve foreign and security policy and impact the target audience’s decision making and behavior...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Strengthening ASEAN-IORA Cooperation Through Port Connectivity, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific’s dense shipping traffic has made the region vulnerable to severe vessel-sourced pollution threatening marine ecosystems and coastal economies. A striking example is the catastrophic oil spill in the waters of Mauritius, which underscored the urgent need for greater international cooperation to combat pollution from ships in the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) play key roles in addressing these challenges, leveraging their strategic positions to advance regional ocean governance...

  

EWC

Peak Repayment: China’s Global Lending, May 2025. Soaring debt repayments and a sharp reduction in lending have transformed China’s role in developing country finances from capital provider to debt collector. Mounting pressures from Chinese debts are especially severe for many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries. A retrenchment in Western aid and trade is compounding these challenges while undermining any geopolitical advantage for the West. In 2025, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries will make record high debt repayments totalling $22 billion to China. Beijing has transitioned from capital provider to net financial drain on developing country budgets as debt servicing costs on Belt and Road Initiative projects from the 2010s now far outstrip new loan disbursements...

  

Lowy

Building National Preparedness: A Road Map for Australia and What We Should Learn From Finland, May 2025. Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements...

  

ASPI

The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2025-2026, May 2025. Australia faces a perilous strategic environment with multiple threats overlapping and, in some cases, converging. We’re confronted simultaneously by the rise of aggressive authoritarian powers, multiple conflicts around the world, persistent and evolving terrorism, foreign interference and the normalisation of cyberwarfare. Our largest trading partner, China, is increasingly aggressive militarily and has growing control of critical technologies integral to our societies. In Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region, rearmament is underway, including increased prospects of nuclear proliferation. Australia is a part of that rearmament, though others are moving much faster...

  

ASPI

India’s ‘Wait and Watch’ Diplomacy: Redefining Regional Engagement in South Asia, May 2025. India’s ‘Wait and Watch’ approach has reinforced its foreign policy strategy of ‘Neighbourhood First’ and hence allowed it to adjust to the changing political landscapes in South Asia. This issue brief looks at how India’s measured response to political changes in Afghanistan under the Taliban and in the Maldives under President Mohamed Muizzu has boosted India’s regional influence by exercising strategic patience and calibrated diplomacy. India has managed to reposition itself as an indispensable partner to both nations by striking the right balance of economic and humanitarian engagement with security concerns...

  

ISDP

Proxy Wars and Silent Partners: The Pahalgam Attack a Stress Test for India–China Stability, May 2025. The April 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack marks a significant moment in South Asia’s evolving security matrix. While the India–Pakistan binary continues to dominate discourse, China’s ambiguous posture following India’s Operation Sindoor warrants deeper scrutiny. This issue brief assesses Beijing’s silence, the implications for China-India ties, and China’s alignment with Pakistan’s strategic calculus. Drawing on past crises like Pulwama, Balakot, and Uri, it interrogates China’s selective neutrality, its shielding of Pakistan, and the erosion of its credibility as a regional stabilizer...

  

ISDP

China’s Techno-Military Modernization in Tibet and its Impact on Climate, May 2025. This issue brief examines China’s extensive techno-military modernization in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with a focus on infrastructure development and its ecological implications. The Chinese government’s investment in TAR’s infrastructure development, a crucial component of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is focused on large-scale dual-use infrastructure, including road networks, highways, airports, and railroads. Despite being presented as developmental, these infrastructure projects significantly expand China’s military mobility and enhance its strategic depth in the region. However, this rapid securitization comes with serious ecological consequences, such as grassland degradation, waterway pollution, and community displacement...

  

ISDP

Tibet’s Climate Crisis: The Japanese Perspective, May 2025. Japan has increasingly advocated for Tibetan human rights, often linking environmental vulnerability to cultural preservation. While Japan maintains a robust environmental diplomacy and has regularly engaged China on broader climate issues, Tokyo’s Tibet policy remains traditionally constrained due to the political sensitivity of Beijing’s sovereignty claims in the region. This issue brief examines Japan’s nuanced approach to the escalating climate issues in Tibet, considering the region’s critical ecological role as the “roof of the world” and source of major Asian rivers. It outlines how extensive Chinese infrastructure development in the region, in conjunction with increasing militarization, has severely impacted Tibet’s fragile environment, threatened the downstream nations, and raised global climate security concerns...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #12: Malaysia Chairs ASEAN at a Strategic Crossroads: Priorities, Opportunities and Challenges. Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, under the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, draws from the Madani concept and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s long-standing vision of an Asian renaissance. It reflects Malaysia’s aspiration to promote a forward-looking, values-based leadership grounded in sustainability, inclusivity and regional solidarity. Malaysia’s chairmanship takes place amid heightened geopolitical volatility, including intensifying major power rivalry, ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, and the deepening political and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #11: A Historical Note on Economic Reforms in Myanmar, 2006 to 2016. This historical note seeks to provide some markers for economists and policymakers interested in Myanmar’s woeful experience over seven decades when it fell from being one of the most prosperous and promising countries in East Asia at the end of World War II to one of the poorest now. The most encouraging period of economic progress after Burma’s independence in 1948 was the decade of quasi-democratic governance under the Thein Sein administration from 2011 to 2016 and the National League for Democracy (NLD) administration (led by Aung San Suu Kyi) from 2016 to 2021. On 1 February 2021, a military coup plunged the country back into another chaotic period of civil strife and economic suffering, with no end in sight...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #10: Disinformation and Election Propaganda: Impact on Voter Perceptions and Behaviours in Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election. This study analyses the impact of social media election campaigning, disinformation and election propaganda on voters’ perceptions and behaviours in Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election. It assesses the influence of social media platforms and chat messaging apps as sources of election-related information on voters and their level of trust in these mediums. The study also assesses how exposed and susceptible voters have been to various disinformation and election propaganda narratives...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #9: Economic Governance of Non-State Authorities in Myanmar: Potentials and Pitfalls. Since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, the reach and influence of non-state authorities have spread considerably, providing them with greater scope to govern economic activity in parts of Myanmar. Taxation is among non-state authorities’ most widespread aspects of economic governance. Numerous groups rely on checkpoints and road tolls, with other common taxes covering natural resource extraction, agricultural production, and business activity. At least one non-state authority collects monthly household taxes, with higher rates for wealthier households...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #8: Striking While the Iron Is Hot: Sarawak and Federal-State Dynamics in Today’s Malaysia. Malaysia’s federal system is asymmetric, as the East Malaysian territories of Sarawak and Sabah have more autonomy and prerogatives than their West Malaysian counterparts. This reflects their incorporation into the Malaysian Federation in 1963 and distinct ethnic and religious composition. Despite this, many East Malaysians do not feel that their position within Malaysia has been beneficial. Due to their natural resource wealth, these states generate a substantial proportion of federal government revenue and yet suffer high rates of poverty and insufficient infrastructure investment...

  

ISEAS

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ADB
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ADB
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Asian Development Outlook, April 2025 (Full Report, Highlights). Weak consumption in the People’s Republic of China will partly offset robust domestic demand in South Asia. Disinflation is expected to continue, driven by lower food and energy prices, along with the lagged effects of previous monetary policy tightening. The region’s high-income technology exporters remain a bright spot, benefiting from strong global demand for electronics. However, rising trade uncertainty and escalating tariffs have created headwinds, weighing on financial markets and investor confidence. The region must navigate these challenges to sustain its economic momentum.

  

ADB

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIV, Issue 1, April 2025 (Full Report). The global economy grew steadily in 2024, underpinned by robust domestic demand in the US and strong export performance in Asia. However, prospects for global GDP growth have diminished amid the trade conflict. Economies that levy duties on imports will likely experience an increase in costs, which will in turn weigh on business and consumer spending. Meanwhile, exporting countries which have been hit by tariffs will experience a negative external demand shock. As a whole, global GDP growth is expected to slow below trend. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s growth outlook has turned more cautious...

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, March 2025. The Singapore economy expanded by 5.0% year-on-year in Q4 2024, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 3.1% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025. The most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 2.5 to 2.9% this year, similar to the previous survey conducted in Dec 2024 (Chart 2). The average probability assigned to this range has risen to 46%, from 42% in the previous survey. The standard deviation of the forecasts has remained broadly the same as the previous survey, although the distribution has become slightly more negatively skewed...

  

MAS

2024 Singapore Corporate Debt Market Development. Global bond issuance volume remained flat at USD 6.6 trillion in 2023, amidst the peaking interest rates environment and an expectation of an economic slowdown. In Asia, issuance volume of Asia (Ex-Japan) G-3 bonds declined by 16.5% YoY to USD 160 billion1, as Asian corporates rein in financing on the back of higher funding costs. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s bond market fared well, with issuance volumes rebounding 59% in 2023 to reach USD 77 billion2, driven by financing needs of global corporates based in Singapore to fund their operations and expansion in Asia. Total outstanding debt arranged by financial institutions in Singapore registered a 10.5% YoY increase to SGD 566 billion, driven by financing needs from MNEs in Singapore...

  

MAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q2, April 2025. Compared to the 2.9% economic growth in the first half of 2024, Hong Kong’s economic growth slowed to 2.5% in the second half of the year. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 25Q1, reflecting the impact of further escalation of China-US trade uncertainties. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.2% during 25Q1 and 25Q2. US tariffs on multiple countries hinder global economic growth, presenting major challenges to Hong Kong's external demand. Hong Kong's economic growth will mainly be driven by domestic demand in 2025...

  

HKU

South Korea and Australia in Space: Towards a Strategic Partnership, April 2025. Space cooperation between Australian and South Korea remains stuck in its infancy and, to some extent, is treated as an end in itself. This report argues that the time is ripe for both Australia and South Korea to embark on joint projects and initiatives that would deliver tangible and practical outcomes for both countries. For South Korea and Australia, space cooperation and space development serve as key pillars of the bilateral relationship. The two nations elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2021, incorporating space development into core areas of cooperation in the fields of economics, innovation and technology...

  

ASPI

National Food Security Preparedness Green Paper, April 2025. Australia’s agriculture sector and food system produce enough food to feed more than 70 million people worldwide. The system is one of the world’s least subsidised food systems. It has prospered under a global rules-based system influenced by Western liberal values, but it now faces chronic challenges due to rising geopolitical tensions, geo-economic transitions, climate change, deteriorating water security and rapid technological advances. The world is changing so rapidly that the assumptions, policy approaches and economic frameworks that have traditionally supported Australia’s food security are no longer fit for purpose...

  

ASPI

Indonesia in 2035: Climate Risks to Security in the Indo-Pacific, March 2025. The Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the region, will strain Indonesia’s economic and national-security interests. This report presents the findings of a narrative-driven scenario to stress-test Indonesia’s climate risks emerging by 2035. Its objective is to identify opportunities for Indonesia and its economic and strategic partners to prepare for and mitigate the risks...

  

ASPI

Trapped in Debt: China’s Role in Laos’ Economic Crisis, April 2025. This Analysis examines the drivers of the Lao debt crisis and what will be required to get out of it, with a focus on China’s role. Laos’ debt crisis has received little international attention and scrutiny, reflecting the country’s opacity and the minor exposure of international bond investors. Yet China’s outsized role makes the Lao crisis a crucial case study in an era when China has become the world’s largest bilateral creditor to developing countries. What is clear is that China lent on a huge scale to a country with weak institutions and limited ability to productively absorb the investment. This has resulted in massive overcapacity in the Lao energy sector, unsustainable financial losses, and finally the takeover of its energy grid by a Chinese state firm...

  

Lowy

Emerging Leaders, Enduring Bonds: Australia–Papua New Guinea Relations, March 2025. This report is based on insights from the 2024 Australia–PNG Network Emerging Leaders Dialogue, held in Canberra, 7–11 October 2024. The Dialogue brought together a group of young leaders to explore the opportunities and challenges facing PNG youth in education, employment, and civic engagement. It provides actionable recommendations to deepen collaboration between the two countries. The recommendations are those of the young leaders. The authors of this report were guided by their thinking. By design, the Dialogue did not weigh the financial or policy trade-offs involved in implementing these recommendations...

  

Lowy

(UN)Ambiguous Meaning? Cross-Strait Narratives of UN Resolution 2758, April 2025. This Focus Asia paper examines China’s and Taiwan’s narratives about UN Resolution 2758 in the context of current cross-strait relations and the global debate surrounding Taiwan’s UN participation. The paper expounds on what UN Resolution 2758 is and in what historical context it was voted on in the 1971 UN General Assembly. It analyzes the international debate that led up to the resolution’s adoption and argues that it had a different meaning to the UN’s voting member-states. The paper also examines how the PRC’s and Taiwan’s narratives of UN Resolution 2758 has evolved over time. For the PRC, the resolution affirmed its “one China principle” claiming that Taiwan is part of China. Its use has not so much evolved but instead intensified...

  

ISDP

Relational Dynamics and Italy’s Strategic Integration into the Indo-Pacific, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific region is currently the primary arena in which global geopolitics is being played out. Italy has taken a more flexible approach, cultivating links and engaging in strategic activities without having an official strategy in place, despite the fact that several other governments have formed formal plans for the Indo-Pacific region. Initially, Italy’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative was focused on establishing business linkages, particularly with China. In recent times, however, Rome has been increasing its involvement in multilateral cooperation, maritime security, and regional stability...

  

ISDP

China’s Rapacity for Mining in Tibet: An Indian Perspective, April 2025. China’s rapacity for mining in Tibet has unfortunately become a permanent feature of its occupation. There are several reports on the environmental degradation caused by China’s activities in Tibet. What, however, is not explored is how and why China mines what it mines the most in Tibet. In order to understand the all-pervasive and permanent nature of China’s rapacity for mining in Tibet, it is pertinent to analyze the phases in which Chinese mining in Tibet has become as extensive as it is today. It is also pertinent to understand the problems it causes to downstream countries, in order to create more awareness, to push back against China’s unchallenged mining in Tibet...

  

ISDP

Challenges Faced by TSMC and Its Suppliers in Expanding to Europe, April 2025. The semiconductor shortage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the European Chips Act (ECA). The ECA was first proposed in February 2022 aiming to double the European Union’s (EU) global market share in semiconductor manufacturing to 20 percent by 2030.* The ECA opens a door for Taiwanese companies to reposition their geopolitical strategy. In August 2024, the first Taiwan-invested semiconductor fabrication plant (fab) broke ground in Dresden, Germany. It will specialize in producing mature chips for automation and electrification in the automotive and industrial sectors...

  

ISDP

Going for Gold on the Tibetan Frontier, April 2025. In 2025, China is hungrier than ever for gold, as an abiding holder of accumulated wealth, in a time when even the biggest Chinese real estate builders, tech entrepreneurs, exam coaching, and other industries can go broke in a blink. The focus is on the copper, and on the hydro dams that power its extraction from remote Tibetan mountain sides, and the copper cables that transmit electricity from Tibetan rivers to far distant Chinese industrial hubs. Yet, in Tibet, these deposits are consistently polymetallic, usually bearing not only copper but also extractable and profitable molybdenum, silver, and gold. The quantum of gold may be small, but not its value.

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #7: Localization of the United States–China Rivalry: Cases from the Philippines. The intensified rivalry between the United States and China has put small states like the Philippines in a precarious position, given its relative importance in the regional geo-strategy of both big powers. Since foreign and security policymaking tend to be formulated in a top-down manner, existing analyses have not paid sufficient attention to what extent this big-power competition has affected local political dynamics and local governance. The Philippine foreign policy pendulum has swung since 2016 between adopting a more cordial relationship with either the US or China. This opened opportunities for each big power to engage local governments in political, security, economic, and socio-cultural activities that potentially hold implications for national security...

  

ISEAS

Tourism and Amenities in Malaysia, March 2025. The tourism industry in Malaysia was adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Domestic tourism has recovered faster that in-bound tourism. The empirical analysis in this study indicates that air connectivity is a key amenity for in-bound tourism. Shopping-related amenities may be less important for in-bound tourism due to the type of tourist attractions that appeal to in-bound tourists. There is also evidence that Malaysia is currently regarded as a low cost or cheap holiday destination. It attracts tourists from relatively lower income and with weaker national currency. These findings support key elements of the current government policies for the industry.

  

ISEAS

Demographic Change and Services: The Case of Malaysia, March 2025. Malaysia is at the threshold of transitioning into an aging society. This study undertakes an empirical analysis of demographic changes in Malaysia and how this has brought about changes in the demand for services in the country. Evidence from this study suggests that the demand for services such as information and communications is relatively robust against demographic change but will evolve as higher income increases the demand for quality services. The education services will be transformed with the shrinking of the share of the younger population...

  

ISEAS

AI-Enabled Organisational Listening – Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for a More Relational Approach to Government Communication, March 2025. This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance government communication, with a focus on “organisational listening” (Macnamara, 2018, p.122) — the government's ability to listen and respond to citizens, and engage them in co-creating policies and public services. The paper analyses both opportunities and risks, drawing insights from global examples. Government communication has evolved from a one-way, transactional approach to a more relational model that emphasises two-way dialogue. This shift reflects both proactive government initiatives and external pressures...

  

IPS

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APEC
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ADB
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Cybersecurity in Brunei: Building Resilience against Threats, March 2025. Brunei Darussalam, despite its smaller digital ecosystem, faces growing cybersecurity challenges. Safeguarding national security, economic interests, and citizens' data requires collaborative efforts between the government and private sector. This article explores Brunei’s cybersecurity landscape, focusing on key challenges, institutional responses, legislative measures, and international collaborations...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Thailand: Balancing Progress, Geopolitical Influences, and the Need for Enhanced Readiness, March 2025. Thailand has made notable progress in cybersecurity, supported by a strong regulatory framework. However, rapid digital transformation, increased adoption of cloud computing, the Internet of Things, digital payments, and a shortage of skilled cybersecurity professionals continue to pose challenges. Thailand’s cybersecurity landscape is shaped by geopolitical rivalries, balancing cooperation between major powers...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Malaysia: Bridging Digital Ambitions with Security Efforts, March 2025. Malaysia’s cybersecurity approach began with information technology (IT) security for digitization goals in the late 1990s with the Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) to its first National Cybersecurity policy in 2008 focused on national security approaches to protect critical infrastructure and safeguard the nation from information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled threats such as extremism in the first decade of the 2000s...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in the Philippines: Advancing a Cyber Defense Posture, March 2025. The Philippines, like many small countries, is often left to defend its own digital ecosystems. The Philippines has experienced major cyberattacks targeting government agencies, public schools, and even the private sector. The country’s reactive and technology-centric approach to cybersecurity is often a product of fragmented policies, inadequate resources, and traditional bureaucratic practices. To address these challenges, it must adopt a cyber defense posture to enhance its cybersecurity to ensure a safer environment to pursue its national interests...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Vietnam: Challenges and Opportunities in an Era of Digital Transformation, March 2025. Vietnam has experienced remarkable digital transformation over the past two decades with Internet penetration surging from zero percent in 2000 to 78 percent in 2023. This rapid digital growth, however, has brought increasing cybersecurity challenges. This article examines the current state of Vietnam's cybersecurity landscape, identifies key challenges, and explores opportunities for international cooperation to strengthen the nation's cyber resilience...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity for ASEAN: Many Opportunities and Challenges for Cyber Cooperation, March 2025. As cyberspace becomes another platform for great power competition between China and the United States, ASEAN and its members must manage their relations with these powers without sacrificing their socio-economic and political interests. While Southeast Asia has yet to experience the brunt of disruptive events characterizing cyber conflict in recent years, the strategic significance of cyberspace continues to be an acknowledged reality for the region...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Singapore: Strengthening Resilience Amid Evolving Cyber Threats, March 2025. Singapore is rapidly transforming into a leading Smart Nation, harnessing cutting-edge technology to fuel innovation, foster economic growth, and “build better, meaningful, and fulfilled lives for [the Singapore] people.” However, as digital advancements become more deeply integrated into daily life, they also open the door to more cyber threats, endangering Singapore’s Smart Nation agenda...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Myanmar: Concern across the Landscape, March 2025. Myanmar’s cybersecurity landscape after the 2021 coup presents more cause for concern than complacency. Since 2021, the junta has heavily regulated digital platforms, blocked access to social media, and limited internet access. It further introduced a repressive cybersecurity law amidst Myanmar’s rising visibility as a location for cyber-scam operations. The 2025 Cybersecurity Law’s provisions against virtual private network (VPN) usage and penalties for sharing information deemed “inappropriate” for the country’s security situation mean that the junta will (and does) not hesitate to violate personal data privacy and internet freedom...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Cambodia: New Laws but a Range of Challenges Remain, March 2025. Cambodia’s digital transformation journey is exhibited by the introduction of key policies and strategies. The Cambodia Digital Government Policy 2022-2035 prioritizes safety and sustainability in digital security, emphasizing the need for robust cybersecurity measures to protect national digital infrastructure. The Cambodia Digital Economy and Society Policy Framework 2021-2035 recognizes cybersecurity as crucial for building trust in the digital sphere...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Indonesia: More Capacity Needed to Leverage Digital Technology, March 2025. Indonesia is one of the most digitally connected countries, with 77 percent of its population (approximately 212 million people) actively online, contributing an estimated US$130 billion to the national economy by 2025. Since the early 2010s, a persistent national objective has been to leverage digital technology to drive economic growth, enhance public services, and address socioeconomic challenges...

  

EWC

Creative and Innovative Approaches to Engaging With Communities in Water Security in the Solomon Islands, March 2025. Lack of access to clean, drinkable water is an increasingly urgent issue in the Pacific. Only 55 percent of Pacific Islanders have access to basic drinking water. The Solomon Islands currently has one of the lowest levels of access to clean drinking water among Pacific Island countries. Recent data shows that only 91.2 percent of urban and 71.3 percent of rural households in the Solomon Islands have access to clean water. This article presents the current status of water catchment management in the Solomon Islands and makes a case for more coordinated catchment governance and for different modes of community engagement at the catchment level.

  

EWC

Hedging Bets: Southeast Asia’s Approach to China’s Aid, March 2025. China’s official development finance (ODF) to Southeast Asia has declined markedly since 2015. Once the primary development partner for half the region in terms of annual ODF disbursements, Beijing now holds that position only in Malaysia and Laos. While legacy projects will ensure that China remains a significant development partner — potentially providing the region an additional $32 billion in financing — newer Chinese commitments are being provided on a much smaller scale, and with a different focus...

  

Lowy

The Future of Indonesia’s Green Industrial Policy, March 2025. Indonesia’s green industrial policy has focused on increasing the value of raw critical minerals through onshore processing and building a domestic electric vehicle (EV) industry. It appears to have worked, in a limited sense. The country now produces much of the world’s mined and refined nickel and has become a major destination for global EV supply chains. However, this success has drawbacks. Growth in the nickel industry has not translated into significant local job creation, poverty reduction, or government revenues, while serious environmental degradation, labour violations, and poor governance persist...

  

Lowy

British Public Opinion on Foreign Policy: President Trump, Ukraine, China, Defence Spending and AUKUS, March 2025. Britons support an open and engaged foreign policy role for the United Kingdom. In light of the re-election of President Donald Trump, 40% believe Britain should continue to maintain its current active level of engagement in world affairs, and 23% believe it should play a larger role. Just 16% of Britons support a less active United Kingdom on the world stage. When asked what Britain’s response should be if the United States withdraws its financial and military support from Ukraine, 57% of Britons would endorse the UK either maintaining (35%) or increasing (22%) its contributions to Ukraine. One-fifth would prefer that the UK reduces its contributions to Ukraine...

  

ASPI

“Strategic Autonomy, Anyone?” Charting Europe’s Shifting Security Debates and 2024-2029 Priorities, March 2025. Policymakers are preparing for the 2024-2029 EU legislative period in a dramatically changing geopolitical landscape. With escalating wars and humanitarian crises on its borders, shifting trade dynamics, deindustrialization threats, and a more confrontational U.S. administration, the EU faces pressing challenges that raise fundamental questions about its identity and future. In this context, the debate on Strategic Autonomy is resurfacing as a key issue, with a focus on how EU member-states can unite to address these challenges...

  

ISDP

COP30: Time for Action on the Himalayan Region, March 2025. The Himalayas have faced unprecedented ecological, weather-related, and geotectonic disasters, exacerbated by human activity, disrupting ecosystems and local livelihoods. Despite these pressing issues, international climate discussions, particularly at COP29, largely marginalized the Himalayan crisis, including Tibet’s environmental degradation. Adding to this is China’s development policies that have particularly led to the current crisis situation. Beijing has pursued large-scale infrastructure projects, mining, and water diversion schemes, which threaten both the region’s ecology and downstream countries...

  

ISDP

India-Nordic Budding Dynamics: Sweden, a Vital Gateway? March 2025. The India-Nordic summits in 2018 and 2022 had the clearly outlined goal of the expanding strategic coordination between India and the Nordics. The spike in trade reflects a healthy economic engagement as well as immense potential for the future both in terms of mutual growth and regional prosperity. These summits focused not only on trade and investment, but also explored the potential for expanding innovation-oriented cooperation in areas such as clean/green technologies, maritime security, digitalization, global health, infrastructure, and climate action, apart from reiterating the commitment to a rules-based democratic order...

  

ISDP

India-Sweden Ties: Forging a Cohesive Partnership, March 2025. From areas like human rights and political differences to climate and sustainability, both countries often differ on certain points, sometimes causing friction in their bilateral relations. Most prominently, India and Sweden differ notably in their approach to Russia. While New Delhi sees Russia as a historical ally and key supplier of defense equipment, Sweden (and the EU at large) views Russia as an imminent security threat. These distinct approaches are shaped not only by their historical lenses, but also by their different strategic priorities and geopolitical alignments. Both countries have sought to manage these differences pragmatically while continuing to focus on other areas of cooperation...

  

ISDP

The Future of Korean Research from a Nordic Perspective, March 2025. The Nordic countries are long-standing partners to South Korea, engaging in dialogue and collaborating on regional and global concerns since 1959. Despite a long history of state-level cooperation, the Nordic public’s knowledge of Korean affairs remains comparatively low when compared to other regional powers in East Asia, particularly China and Japan. However, during the last decade, there has been a noticeable increase in societal interest in South Korea throughout the Nordic region...

  

ISDP

Sweden and China: The Use of History and Mismatched Expectations, March 2025. Sweden was not the first country in the West that recognized the People’s Republic of China, but it became the first in the West to establish formal diplomatic relations in 1950 because China picked it ahead of others to do so. This history has since been mutually emphasized on both sides, for different reasons. This paper examines the history of how Sweden established diplomatic relations with the PRC, outlining the historical context in which diplomatic relations were established and what it meant for the two countries at the time. The paper examines how the history of diplomatic relations has been used by the two countries and in which two country-specific contexts this use can be understood...

  

ISDP

PRC Mining in Tibet – a European Perspective, March 2025. Given the enormous geostrategic and environmental importance of the Tibetan Plateau, what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does with Tibet’s waters and its minerals does not concern the PRC only. It concerns the entire Himalayan region and their people, their security, and ecological interests. Beyond the region, China’s role in the global race for critical raw materials (CRM) cannot be overstated. It is already leading in the race and needs Tibet’s rich resources to keep its lead. Going forward, Beijing is likely to expand mining activities on the Plateau, displacing and disempowering Tibetans, with far-reaching regional and global implications...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #6: Current Perspectives on Geopolitics among Southeast Asian Youths. Youths are becoming an increasingly significant political force in Southeast Asian countries. As a collective, young Southeast Asians aged 18–35 have the potential to exert greater sway over their respective national foreign policymaking landscapes. They will also occupy key positions in their respective countries and societies in the future, thus understanding young Southeast Asian opinion leaders’ views on geopolitics can provide valuable insight into the future of foreign policymaking in the region...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #5: Higher Education in Malaysia: A History Plagued by Fluctuations. Higher education has been a coveted policy domain in Malaysia. Political dynamics and shifting emphasis in policy not only shape the higher education system but hold deep implications for the institutional and educational life of universities. The first four decades after independence saw the government tightening its control over universities and corporatizing and liberalizing the higher education sector before elevating the importance of higher education by establishing the Ministry of Higher Education in 2004...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #4: Revolutionary Regimes: Emerging Forms of Governance in Post-Coup Myanmar. A variety of governance forms have emerged in Myanmar’s post-coup landscape, bringing together established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) with dynamic new actors from a broad spectrum of elected lawmakers, youth, women and civil society in Myanmar’s “Spring Revolution” against the 2021 coup and military rule. Experiments with new forms of governance have had varying degrees of success, with wide swathes of territory across the country coming under the control of groups opposed to the State Administration Council (SAC)...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #3: Indonesia’s Political Volunteer Organizations: Tools of Mobilization and of Patronage. The concept of political volunteerism in Indonesia differs markedly from that in established democracies. In Indonesia, it is less about civic engagement or strengthening democracy and more about serving as a tool for candidates to mobilize voters and win elections. The relationship between candidates and their volunteers is reciprocal but often imbalanced, fostering opportunities for patronage within electoral politics...

  

ISEAS

APEC Regional Trends Analysis, March 2025. The APEC region faces growing economic challenges, with slowing growth and rising fiscal pressures, aggravated by ageing populations. While near-term prospects remain stable, risks affecting the medium-term outlook are intensifying due to persistent trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and structural constraints. Strengthening resilience requires bold policy action—advancing structural reforms to boost productivity and innovation while maintaining sound fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability. Deepening regional cooperation remains essential to mitigate trade vulnerabilities and navigate global uncertainties. By taking coordinated and decisive action, APEC economies can steer the region towards brighter growth prospects and build a more sustainable, resilient future for all.

  

APEC
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ADB
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ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 2025 (Full Report). The opening article underscores the importance of knowledge sharing among city governments. Other articles discuss how urban green spaces can reduce flooding and the burning of waste, how growing mungbeans can reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers, and how internet access can increase farmers’ incomes. Authors also examine trade costs in Central Asia and participation in global value chains.

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March 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Mutual Contradictions - Pacific Islands Cooperation for Maritime Security with Global Powers, February 2025. The Blue Pacific identity is not a “fancy concept”; it is about the collective heritage of the people of the Pacific. Maritime security is primarily viewed through these ecological anthropic lenses and the historical experience of the Pacific. The Blue Pacific concept represents “a long-term Forum foreign policy commitment to act as one Blue Continent.” ...

  

EWC

Maritime Threats Across the Pacific Islands - Vulnerabilities and Opportunities for Cooperative Action and Technological Solutions, February 2025. The maritime territory of the Pacific Islands, characterized by its vast expanses and rich marine biodiversity, faces a complex array of maritime threats that challenge its economic development, environmental sustainability, and regional security. These threats, ranging from illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing to climate change, transnational crime, and marine pollution, exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of Pacific Island nations...

  

EWC

Legal Challenges in Maritime Governance Cooperation in the Pacific Islands Region, February 2025. Despite limited land area, populations, and economies, under international law, roughly one dozen Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have de jure control of vast exclusive economic zones (EEZs) that total over 19 million square kilometers, an area larger than Russia. However, most of these countries have significant development needs, and many lack the domestic capacity to effectively govern their expansive maritime domains...

  

EWC

Australia’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. When it comes to strengthening Pacific maritime governance, Australia’s principal objective is to support the regional security architecture through bilateral and multilateral engagement. Australia is an original member of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Australia seeks to strengthen law and order at sea while respecting Pacific priorities...

  

EWC

US Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The United States seeks to promote stability, security, and sustainable development across the Pacific Islands by helping to enhance maritime governance. Central to US objectives is combatting illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and transnational crime, including human trafficking and drug smuggling by criminal networks in Asia. The United States also aims to bolster the economic well-being of Pacific Island nations by ensuring the sustainable management of maritime resources, particularly fisheries...

  

EWC

Aotearoa New Zealand’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. Aotearoa New Zealand is “a Pacific Island nation, surrounded by water” within Te Moana-nui-a-kiwa, the Pacific Ocean. It has interests in the region's maritime safety, security, and governance. New Zealand maintains a non-self-governing territory, Tokelau, and has special security and defense responsibilities regarding independent states in free association—Niue and Cook Islands. New Zealand is responsible for the security and defense of their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and represents their interests at the United Nations...

  

EWC

Japan’s Contributions to Maritime Governance in the Pacific, February 2025. Japan's involvement in maritime governance in the Pacific is driven by a strategic commitment to maintaining and enhancing regional security and safety. This effort is a crucial element of Japan’s vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). The socio-economic development of the Pacific islands and combating transnational crime are the cornerstones of Japan's maritime security activities in the Pacific Ocean...

  

EWC

The People’s Republic of China’s Contributions to Maritime Governance in the Pacific, February 2025. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) approach to Pacific maritime governance seeks to improve China’s standing among regional countries, reshape the international maritime order in ways more aligned with PRC interests, and set terms favorable to PRC military and commercial actors. PRC diplomats engaging their Pacific island country (PIC) counterparts advocate building a “China-Pacific Island Countries community with a shared future.”...

  

EWC

The United Kingdom’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have not factored significantly in the United Kingdom’s (UK) policymaking since a comparatively late wave of decolonization between 1970 to 1980. During this time, Fiji, Tonga, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Vanuatu gained independence. A diplomatic withdrawal from the Pacific defined policy in the early 2000s. Unlike Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Islands are not explicitly featured in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Chapter of the UK’s National Strategy for Maritime Security...

  

EWC

France’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. France's Pacific territories, which include New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia, and Clipperton, form a vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering around 7 million km². This area accounts for 67% of France’s total global EEZ. France's primary focus in maritime governance in the Pacific is protecting this resource-rich maritime domain from Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and drug trafficking...

  

EWC

The Republic of Korea’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The Republic of Korea (ROK) has a significant interest in Pacific maritime governance owing to its reliance on maritime trade, its security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region, and how the ROK’s Indo-Pacific Strategy intersects with its aspirations to become a “Global Pivotal State,” a term coined by the Yoon Suk Yeol government. The ROK's objectives and actions in Pacific maritime governance can be understood through its strategic perspectives, policies, contributions, and the challenges it faces...

  

EWC

China versus America on Global Trade, January 2025. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House means another trade war between the United States and China looks increasingly likely, with the rest of the world caught in the crossfire. What has happened to global trading relationships since the last US–China trade war of 2018–19? This Data Snapshot provides an update and expands on our previous exercise mapping the shift towards China and away from the United States as the larger trading partner for each economy in the world...

  

Lowy

Five One-Chinas: The Contest to Define Taiwan, January 2025. Global attention is often focused on Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic partners, which have dropped to just 11 UN member states, mostly small Caribbean and Pacific Island countries. But what matters more is the growing global support for China’s efforts to bring Taiwan under its control, potentially via the use of force. Only 40 countries (21 per cent of UN member states) maintain one-China policies that recognise the government in Beijing but stop short of accepting China’s sovereignty over the de facto independent territory of Taiwan...

  

Lowy

State-Sponsored Economic Cyber-Espionage for Commercial Purposes: Assessing the Preparedness of Emerging Economies to Defend Against Cyber-Enabled IP Theft, February 2025. Strategic competition is deepening existing tensions and mistrust between states and prompts nations to develop capabilities that they consider central to sovereign national power. Technological capabilities sit at the centre of this. It’s therefore not surprising that governments around the world are seeking technological advantage over their competitors and potential adversaries. In this context, safeguarding intellectual property (IP) has become necessary not just because it’s an essential asset for any modern economy—developed or emerging—but because it’s also increasingly underwriting national and regional security...

  

ASPI

State-Sponsored Economic Cyber-Espionage for Commercial Purposes: Governmental Practices in Protecting IP-Intensive Industries, February 2025. This report looks at measures that governments in various parts of the world have taken to defend their economic ‘crown jewels’ and other critical knowledge-intensive industries from cyber threats. It should serve as inspiration for other governments, including from those economies studied in State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to defend against cyber-enabled IP theft...

  

ASPI

The Future of US Indo-Pacific Policy, February 2025. How might US policy in the Indo-Pacific change over the next four years? In anticipation of a new US administration and Congress in 2025, ASPI USA held an “alternative futures analysis” exercise in mid-October 2024 to explore the drivers of US policy and how they might evolve through to November 2028. The workshop involved seven Indo-Pacific experts, who discussed a range of factors that could determine US policy and assessed how key factors could drive different outcomes...

  

ASPI

The Pacific Cocaine Corridor: A Brazilian Cartel’s Pipeline to Australia, February 2025. The report highlights how Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) has become a major transnational criminal threat, exploiting weaknesses in political, legal, and economic systems. It explores Brazil’s geography and criminal networks with South American cocaine producers and examines the PCC’s global distribution networks, with a focus on how the Pacific is increasingly used to transport drugs destined for Australia. A recent case study demonstrates the prioritisation of the Australian market in these operations...

  

ASPI

Responsible Cyber Behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, January 2025. In July 2025, the mandate of the United Nations Open-Ended Working Group on the security and use of information and communications technologies (hereafter OEWG) ends. This marks the latest chapter of international discussions on responsible behaviour in cyberspace. Throughout a 20-year period, a corpus of reports has been delivered that outline standards of behaviour. Taken together, this is referred to as the ‘UN framework of responsible state behaviour’ and includes an acceptance that international law applies to state conduct in cyberspace and a commitment to observe a set of norms...

  

ASPI

Fostering Order In The Indo-Pacific: What the EU Can Learn From and Do With Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, February 2025. One of the most critical challenges of this century is fostering order in the Indo-Pacific. (Dis)order in this space will significantly affect the international order. Not only do many Indo-Pacific residents lead efforts to probe and reform international order and concepts of order, but the superpower competition between the United States (US) and China primarily unfolds here. The EU is already cognizant of this. Yet, it is not just about what the EU and its members seek to accomplish in the region but just as much the interpretations of and preferences for order of key Indo-Pacific resident actors...

  

ISDP

Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Military Exercises in Restraining Taiwan’s Leadership, February 2025. Beijing has been using coercive approaches to restrain Taiwan’s voices for decades. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996 set a precedent for Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises to deter Taiwan’s leadership from advocating sovereignty and deepening its relations with other countries. Between 2022 and 2024, China conducted several large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in response to statements made by Taiwan’s leadership. With many military exercises being conducted as part of its coercive strategies, Beijing still faces the challenge of restraining Taiwan’s leadership...

  

ISDP

Chinese Water Projects in Tibet: A “Continental Challenge”, February 2025. The management of transboundary water resources originating in Tibet has become a critical geopolitical and geo-economic issue in Asia. This issue brief examines China’s hydrological projects on the Tibetan Plateau and their implications for downstream countries. By exploring two key pillars of China’s water strategy—the construction of mega-dams and the South-North Water Diversion Project—the issue brief discusses both the domestic and international consequences of Beijing’s initiatives, such as environmental degradation, displacement of local populations, and the potential for Beijing to weaponize water as a geopolitical tool...

  

ISDP

Justice for the Rohingya: How Bangladesh and the International Community Can Uphold Human Rights, January 2025. The Rohingya crisis stands out as one of the most severe humanitarian emergencies of recent times. Since Myanmar’s military crackdown in 2017, over 700,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, escaping violence that meets the criteria for genocide and ethnic cleansing under international law. This issue brief delves into the historical and political roots of Rohingya persecution, including the impact of Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law, which left them stateless and excluded from basic rights...

  

ISDP

Faultlines in Singapore: Perceptions and Management with a Focus on Race and Religion, February 2025. This report presents findings on public perceptions of faultlines and their management, with a particular focus on racial and religious divides. It is based on the third iteration of the IPS Survey on Race, Religion, and Language, conducted from April to August 2024, involving a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singaporean residents. This study builds on comparable data gathered in 2018 and 2013. At the outset, the study underscores the widespread belief that mismanagement of societal divides can have serious consequences...

  

IPS

Results from the IPS-OnePeople.sg Indicators of Racial and Religious Harmony 2024, February 2025. This report presents the latest findings from the IPS-OnePeople.sg Indicators of Racial and Religious Harmony, offering a detailed snapshot of Singapore’s ever-evolving racial and religious landscape. It rides on the IPS Survey on Race, Religion and Language, which was conducted between April 2024 to August 2024, on a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singaporean residents. The current study builds on comparable data from 2018 and 2013. Key trends and developments across the indicators highlight both progress and persistent challenges...

  

IPS

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APEC
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ADB
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ADB
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

February 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Potential Impact of Higher United States Tariffs on Asian Economies, January 2025. In 2018, the United States (US) government introduced protectionist measures by imposing tariffs under various sections of its Trade Act. Under Section 201, additional tariffs were imposed on solar cells or modules, starting at 30% in the first year (2019) and reduced to 15% by the fourth year (2022). Similarly, large residential washing machines were subject to additional tariffs of 20%–50% based on a tariff-rate quota. Tariffs were also imposed on steel and aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing economic security concerns. Initially, some economies, including the Republic of Korea, were temporarily exempt from these tariffs, but steel quotas and aluminum tariffs were eventually applied...

  

ADB

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2024. The Singapore economy expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 2.6% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. The respondents expect GDP to expand by 3.6% this year, up from 2.6% in the previous survey, with higher forecasts for the manufacturing and wholesale & retail trade sectors. As reflected in the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.5 to 3.9% this year, with an average probability of 54%. In the previous survey, the respondents assigned the highest probability to growth outturns of between 2.5 to 2.9%...

  

MAS

Balancing Act - Military Diplomacy and Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, January 2025. The Korean Peninsula, shaped by historical grievances, ideological divides, and contemporary geopolitical tensions—including North Korea’s alleged military support for Russia’s war with Ukraine and South Korea’s tense political situation—stands out as a heavily militarized and strategically crucial region. Under the scrutiny of the United States and positioned between major powers—China, Japan, and Russia—the peninsula's military dynamics profoundly influence regional and global security. The legacy of the Korean War is omnipresent...

  

EWC

Securing the Future - The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability, January 2025. The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship. Limited interactions marked the initial phase of the US-Maldives defense relationship, primarily focused on diplomatic engagements and occasional military exchanges...

  

EWC

Solar Panels and EV Batteries: US Green Energy Policies Toward China, January 2025. As of mid-2023, China produced 97 percent of the world’s solar panel silicon wafers and was rapidly growing in importance as a provider of batteries for the latest generations of electric vehicles. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had provisions to help US manufacturers of green technologies in the energy and automotive industries compete in key sectors against China. By late 2024, however, American efforts in these two vital green energy areas had seen both false starts at competition and defensive efforts that may be counterproductive to US interests...

  

EWC

Navigating Water Challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: How Can a Shift in Water Management Help? January 2025. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is currently grappling with multiple water challenges. These challenges stem from the alteration of the Mekong River’s natural flows caused by upstream hydropower development, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and local policies that prioritize agricultural production. This article examines how these combined stressors have prompted a shift in water management strategies—from focusing on water expulsion to water retention—to tackle water scarcity and achieve long-term water security in the VMD...

  

EWC

Responsible Cyber Behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, January 2025. In July 2025, the mandate of the United Nations OpenEnded Working Group on the security and use of information and communications technologies (hereafter OEWG) ends. This marks the latest chapter of international discussions on responsible behaviour in cyberspace. Throughout a 20-year period, a corpus of reports has been delivered that outline standards of behaviour. Taken together, this is referred to as the ‘UN framework of responsible state behaviour’ and includes an acceptance that international law applies to state conduct in cyberspace and a commitment to observe a set of norms...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 10, January 2025. Australia should establish a separate budget allocation for special defence industry grants to build up companies in the north in support of the armed forces. Northern Australia is strategically crucial, and so, therefore, is developing a defencesupporting industry there. But northern Australia’s limited economic depth presents huge problems for its companies in showing the business capacity needed to secure current Australian Defence Industry Grants. To overcome these obstacles, the budget line for separate Northern Australian Industry Grants need not be large...

  

ASPI

China, Russia and Undersea Cable Vulnerability: Shoring Up Protection, January, 2025. The global undersea cable network, carrying up to 99 percent of international internet traffic, faces increasing vulnerabilities. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan highlight the urgent need for enhanced protection measures and international cooperation. The mere possibility of cable interference can create significant anxiety in financial markets and erode public confidence in critical infrastructure, having a huge psychological impact. Russia and China are developing alternative cable routes and systems that could reduce Western control over global communications infrastructure...

  

ISDP

Forecasting European Security in 2025: Will Transatlantic Ties Test Europe’s Indo-Pacific Limits? January 2025. In late December 2024, Finland—one of the latest entries to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—seized an oil tanker, with alleged links to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” on grounds of “grave sabotage.” The vessel is suspected of damaging a subsea cable network connecting Estonia and Finland, the two European Union (EU) and NATO members that are staunchly defending Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Moreover, as other such incidents of infrastructure disruptions allegedly by not just Russia but also China have come to light, there is greater concern over escalating hybrid activities, many of which are unprecedented in scale and potential impact...

  

ISDP

Pezeshkian Aims to Strengthen Relations with Japan in All Fields, January 2025. Iran’s view of Japan correlates to the Masoud Pezeshkian government’s view of the international order and its economic and political needs. The Pezeshkian administration has a post-polar view of the international order and strives for cooperation, collaboration, and networking in various fields. In this regard, East Asia is important for the new government of Iran, wherein Japan has a prominent role. The Pezeshkian administration intends to strengthen relations between Tehran and Tokyo in all fields based on a “comprehensive roadmap” by taking advantage of extensive knowledge from Japan...

  

ISDP

Repurposing the United Nations to Address the Climate Crisis on the Tibetan Plateau, January 2025. The futures of people along China’s western frontier changed dramatically with the annexation of Xinjiang in 1949 and Tibet in 1950. When Communist China emerged from decades of isolation in the late 1970s and reasserted itself internationally through a strategy of rejuvenation under Xi Jinping, the native cultures that call the Tibetan Plateau home began a long period of subjugation and repression. As wider Central Asia is now threatened by climate change, strategies must be developed to respond to China’s growing influence internationally, regionally, and locally, as regional ecosystems, water storage and reserves, and local livelihoods are increasingly fragile...

  

ISDP

Report of the Webinar: Climate Crisis in Tibet – Part I: CCP’s Tibet Takeover: Wither Global Climate Action? January 2025. The webinar titled “Climate Crisis in Tibet”, organized by the SCSA-IPA at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), was held on December 18, 2024. This significant event brought together a distinguished panel of experts to explore the environmental and geopolitical impacts of China’s policies in Tibet. The Tibetan ecosystem has been majorly impacted by the accelerating climate change, as well as China’s rapacious so-called “developmental” aims and repressive political measures, including cultural annihilation and Sinicization...

  

ISDP

Climate Meltdown in Tibet: Global Recognition Still Missing, January 2025. The Tibetan Plateau covers approximately 2 percent of the planet, the size of Western Europe, with more than half of the area over 4000 m above sea level. It is the highest and most extensive highland in the world, with as many as 46,000 glaciers, making it the third-largest ice mass in the world. This issue brief aims to identify the importance of the Himalayan glaciers and the potential threat to the fragile mountain ecosystem in the Tibetan region. This would include the natural and anthropogenic factors responsible for its degradation in contemporary times...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #2: Retelling the Tale of Two Democracies: How Shifting Urban-Rural Dynamics Shaped Thailand’s 2023 General Election. Thailand’s 2023 general election reveals a political landscape undergoing significant transformation, where the traditional Bangkok-versus-countryside political dichotomy has given way to more nuanced urban-rural electoral dynamics unfolding within individual provinces and constituencies.As urbanization spreads across Thailand, political candidates adapt their campaign strategies to appeal to voters across the urban-rural divide in their constituencies, leveraging the resources and competitive advantages that come with their party affiliation...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #1: Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia: A Survey of Undergraduates in Six Countries. Youths in Southeast Asia have been active in making their voices heard in politics and in society, both online and offline. However, comparative studies on their civic engagement across the region remain wanting. This pilot study, conducted by the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme (RSCS) at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, gathers insights from educated youths across selected Southeast Asian countries. Between August and October 2024, the team surveyed undergraduates from six Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam...

  

ISEAS

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APEC
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ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

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New War in the South China Sea -  Framing China's Unrestricted Warfare and the Role of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, December 2024. China’s gray zone campaigns in the South China Sea (SCS) are characterized by incremental advances that do not directly cause war but aggregate tensions to shift the status quo in favor of Chinese territorial claims. These advances include constructing Chinese facilities in uninhabited or unhabitable areas and using non-militarized coercions to establish control over maritime territories and enhance China’s national interests. China’s gray zone campaign began in 1987 when UNESCO requested China's assistance to build an observation outpost in Fiery Cross Reef...

  

EWC

The Case for US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue, December 2024. For over half a century, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have relied on US extended deterrence, including its “nuclear umbrella,” for their security. However, their confidence in America’s commitment to its bilateral alliances has been shaken in recent years as the two countries face increasing threats from nuclear-armed neighbors, China, Russia, and North Korea, formally the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK). Despite Washington’s repeated attempts to denuclearize the DPRK through offers of economic assistance and diplomatic rapprochement, the DPRK continues to build up an arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons..

  

EWC

The United States and Indo-Pacific Must Lead the Way on Creating Indoor Air Quality Regulations, December 2024. Air pollution is the greatest environmental threat to human health today. Recent studies have shown that particulate matter air pollution is the leading contributor to the global disease burden and shortens the average person’s lifespan by 1.8 years. It was also the second leading cause of global mortality. Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been linked to a wide range of adverse health effects, including lung cancer, stroke, low birth weight, and reduced cognitive function...

  

EWC

The Economics of Revoking Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for China, December 2024. The United States grants nearly every country in the world normal trade relations, née most favored nation, status. However, political pressure has been building to strip China of this treatment. Yet, recent modeling suggests that revoking permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) from China would not deliver economic benefits to the United States. Instead, it would have the opposite effect compared to what its proponents seek. Starting in 1979, the United States moved China from Column 2 of the tariff schedule, the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, to Column 1, most favored nation. Each year, Congress voted to maintain this status. In 2000, in connection to China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United States granted China PNTR status, ending the practice of annual Congressional votes..

  

EWC

Whither Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal? December 2024. In less than two months of student protests, Bangladesh, a partly free democracy, has plunged into a phase of serious political uncertainty that has not been seen since 2007 when the then Bangladeshi army chief launched a military coup. The Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has fled to India, leaving behind a country plagued by violence, lawlessness, and vandalism. A new interim government has taken shape, led by Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize winner for revolutionizing Bangladesh’s rural banking system. The 17-member interim government is comprised largely of technocrats, military officials, activists, and leaders of the student movement...

  

EWC

Navigating the Shift -  Is China Losing Its Grip on Africa? December 2024. In the first week of September, as African leaders convened in Beijing for the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), it became increasingly clear that Africa is growing disillusioned with China. On the surface, the summit appeared as significant as ever, with 51 African heads of state in attendance and a $51 billion investment pledge from China for the next three years. While this reflects China’s continued commitment, a closer look reveals troubling issues beneath the surface. For instance, of the $51 billion pledged, only $10 billion constitutes new investment. This amount is relatively modest over three years, especially compared to the $8 billion the US annually allocates in humanitarian aid...

  

EWC

COFA 2023 Emerges as a Vital Lifeline for the Marshall Islands National Climate Adaptation Effort, December 2024. The Compact of Free Association (COFA) between the United States and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) provides economic assistance, access to US social programs, and guaranteed defense provisions in exchange for US military access to the strategic Kwajalein Atoll. While the partnership allows the United States to maintain a significant presence in the Pacific, critical for regional security and broader geopolitical interests, it also traditionally provides the RMI with financial support for infrastructure, education, and healthcare, alongside granting certain rights, such as migration privileges to the United States.
The 2023 Compact renewal marks a significant shift in how the agreement tackles climate change, reflecting both the RMI’s vulnerability to rising sea levels and the US strategic interest in the Pacific...

  

EWC

Pacific Island Nations and Japan's Role, December 2024. Japan hosted the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) from July 16 to July 18, 2024, bringing together leaders and officials from 18 countries and regions in the South Pacific. Established in 1997, the summit has been held every three years. Japan and the Pacific Island nations have had a deep historical relationship. After World War I, Japan administered what are now the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia as the “South Sea Islands” under a mandate from the League of Nations. Japan established Nan'yo Cho (Territorial Government of the South Seas) in Koror, Palau, in 1922 and engaged in a variety of projects through private companies, including developing the island, encouraging Japanese immigration, building sugar refineries, liquor factories, and constructing railways...

  

EWC

Partnership of Convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China Convergence, December 2024. The development of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base has caused concern in the United States and elsewhere regarding its potential to become a Chinese military outpost. This concern is set to grow as the Chinese-supported upgrade of the base nears completion at the end of 2024. There can be little doubt that China is reinforcing its military presence and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet Western partners have often raised their concerns with Phnom Penh in a counterproductive way, failing to understand the factors motivating Cambodia to seek deeper defence ties with China. By understanding Cambodia’s threat perceptions and the influence of the kingdom’s domestic politics on its defence and foreign policies, Western partners will be better able to balance China’s influence in Cambodia...

  

Lowy

Looking Through a Pacific Islands Lens: Access, Accountability, and Alignment in Global Engagements, December 2024. The most pressing development and security challenges facing the Pacific Islands are rooted in domestic concerns about economic resilience, law and order, corruption, and the escalating impacts of climate change. Viewed from the Pacific, geopolitical rivalries open development opportunities, but they also magnify governance weaknesses. The sharp increase in global aid and interest in the Pacific Islands is straining limited government capacity in the region. The findings of this report are drawn from interviews with more than 150 Pacific Island leaders from government, civil society, and business, canvassing the impacts of geopolitics on governance, development, and security...

  

Lowy

Cyclone Tracy: 50 years on, December 2024. This year marks a powerful milestone in Australia’s history: the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Tracy, a disaster that reshaped the nation’s approach to resilience and recovery. When the cyclone struck Darwin on Christmas Day in 1974, it killed 66 people, displaced thousands, and left the city in ruins. Yet, it also sparked an extraordinary national response that redefined how Australia prepares for and recovers from natural disasters. Darwin, once devastated, now stands as a modern, resilient city—built not just to recover, but to withstand the worst. ASPI’s new report, released in honour of this anniversary, takes a deep dive into Cyclone Tracy’s lasting impact on Australia’s disaster management. It explores how the event prompted major shifts in urban planning, building codes, and national security frameworks...

  

ASPI

Australia and South Korea: Leveraging the Strategic Potential of Cooperation in Critical Technologies, December 2024. Cooperation between Australia and the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea or the ROK) in a range of critical technology areas has grown rapidly in recent years. Underpinned by the Australia – South Korea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Cyber and Critical Technology Cooperation signed in 2021, collaboration is currently centred around emerging technologies, including next-generation telecommunications, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. Such technologies are deemed to be critical due to their potential to enhance or threaten societies, economies and national security. Most are dual- or multi-use and have applications in a wide range of sectors...

  

ASPI

Martial Law and Political Polarization: What’s in Store for South Korea? December 2024. On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared emergency martial law, shocking both the country and the rest of the world. However, the martial law was only in place for a few hours before being rescinded by the National Assembly. Yoon’s decision to impose martial law sparked protests in both civic society and the opposition, with many urging that he and his supporters accept responsibility for their actions. Following weeks of uncertainty and a lack of consistent action to deal with the fallout from the martial law debacle, the National Assembly impeached Yoon on December 14, stripping him of presidential powers while the Constitutional Court conducts an investigation...

  

ISDP

“Yizhou 夷洲” and “Liuqiu 流求” in Historical Chinese Texts: International Relations on the Northeast Asian Seas (3rd-17th Centuries), December 2024. Sun Quan 孫權, Emperor Da of the Eastern Wu, and Emperor Yang of Sui Yang Guang 楊廣 sent armies across the sea to invade Yizhou and Liuqiu between the 3rd and the 7th centuries. Since 1874, when the French sinologist Léon d’ Hervey Saint-Denys proposed the theory that Liuqiu of the past is Taiwan, giving it a close historical relationship with China, the question of whether Taiwan or Ryukyu 琉球 is the historical Liuqiu has been a significant topic of academic contention. Yizhou was brought into this discussion by the research of Ichimura Sanjirō 市村瓚次郎 in 1918, which similarly explored the question of whether Yizhou is Taiwan or Ryukyu. This paper uses the Hanyu pinyin “Liuqiu” for antiquated toponyms in historical documents, including 流求 and 流球. “Ryukyu” is commonly used to refer to 琉球, the modern formulation in use since the Ming-dynasty of China, in Western languages...

  

ISDP

The Convergence of Disinformation: Examining Russia and China’s Partnership in the Digital Age, December 2024. The spread of disinformation has been a longstanding issue since the establishment of communication between societies. It has been used as a tool to spread propaganda and deceive adversaries in the political and intelligence sphere for centuries. In modern times, the internet has provided extensive opportunities to spread misinformation and manipulate information on a global scale. Western liberal democratic states, due to their open societies, have been heavily targeted by adversaries aiming to cause political turmoil, distrust, and instability through the effective use of disinformation and manipulation of information campaigns. The digital age has ushered in an era where the manipulation of information has become a potent, and easily accessible, tool in the arsenal of statecraft...

  

ISDP

Central Asia in the Energy Transition, December 2024. The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.

 

ISDP

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q1, January 2025. Compared to the 3.0% economic growth in the first half of 2024, changes in consumption patterns among Hong Kong residents and shifts in travel patterns among mainland tourists have respectively resulted in weaker local private consumption expenditure and lower-than-expected improvements in tourism-related service exports. Economic growth slowed in the second half of 2024, with a 1.8% growth recorded in 24Q3. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 24Q4, with an estimated annual growth of 2.5% for the year 2024 as a whole...

  

HKU

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #25: Managing State-Federal Relations: Growing Pressure on Malaysia’s Madani Administration. Federal-state relations in Malaysia today are more dynamic than ever before, with states having changed leadership several times following the 2022 general election and several state-level elections between 2020 and 2023. At present, there are seven states under the Pakatan Harapan–Barisan Nasional (PHBN) grand coalition—three with PH Chief Ministers and four with BN Chief Ministers, four states under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition comprising the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), and Sabah and Sarawak under their respective state-specific coalitions Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), the latter two of which support the unity government at the federal level...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #26: Malaysia’s Motorcycle Sector: Past and Present Possibilities in an Era of Energy Transition. Malaysia has traditionally adopted an intensive automotive industrialization model and created its own vehicles under national brands. The national car project started with Proton in 1983, and the national motorcycle project with Modenas in 1995. While policies and scholarship have focused on national car projects, the two-wheeler sector has stood in their shadow. Modenas witnessed early growth and remains a popular brand after Yamaha and Honda; it has however failed to hit export targets, owing to limited technology transfer and the inability to scale. In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the two-wheeler sector, focusing on phasing out combustion motorcycles in favour of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws). Still nascent, Malaysia’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) sector appears to prioritize an extensive model of assembly and distribution rather than the protection of home-grown brands...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #27: Building upon Deep Trust: ASEAN-Japan Ties at a Crossroads. Over the past five decades, ASEAN-Japan relations have thrived on a foundation of mutually beneficial cooperation and shared interests. This partnership has matured into a multifaceted collaboration deeply rooted in a common commitment to friendship, mutual understanding and trust across cultural, linguistic, and historical differences. The alignment between ASEAN and Japan, notably demonstrated in the Joint Statement on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific adopted at the 23rd ASEAN-Japan Summit in 2020, underscores a shared interest in shaping the region’s future. While approaches and priorities may vary, both sides find common ground through a reaffirmation of key values such as an open rules-based order and a multilateral trading system...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #28: Autonomy in Sarawak and Sabah: Different Paths and Diverging Outcomes. The formation of Malaysia in 1963, governed by the Malaysian Agreement 1963 (MA63), was a defining moment for Sabah and Sarawak. Despite joining the larger component of Peninsular Malaysia, MA63 was designed to: safeguard the rights and autonomy of the two Borneo states; ensure their distinct cultural identities and; grant them more self-governance than that enjoyed by other states in the federation. However, as federal centralization efforts intensified over time, many of these safeguards were gradually eroded. Despite initial similarities, Sabah and Sarawak have taken very different paths in asserting their autonomy. Sarawak, with its deep-rooted history of self-governance and strong leadership, has skillfully navigated federal relations and maintained a significant degree of autonomy...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #29: Online Campaign Narratives in Thailand’s 2023 General Election: An Ecosystem Analysis. After almost a decade of semi-authoritarian rule and a series of tumultuous political incidents, Thailand was ready for a reboot. The elections in May 2023 served as the light at the end of the tunnel for voters. Yet, political dramas continued as the Move Forward Party (MFP), the winner of the popular vote, failed to form a government and eventually was rejected from the ruling coalition entirely. Anyway, this paper is not so much about ousting a party elected by the people; rather, it seeks to explore the pathways of persuasion employed by political parties in Thailand’s pivotal 2023 general election. While it is clear that parties employ both online and on-ground tactics to reach voters, we are particularly interested in the use of social media for campaigning...

  

ISEAS

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