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November 2025 Current Topics

  

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Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIV, Issue 3, October 2025 (Full Report). Singapore’s GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 has turned out stronger than earlier expected. The economy’s pace of expansion is projected to moderate as the impact from tariffs become more apparent, though there are other factors that could provide some offsetting support to growth. Inflation is low but should trough in the later part of 2025. MAS Core Inflation is forecast to average 0.5% this year and pick up gradually to 0.5–1.5% in 2026. In October, MAS maintained the prevailing modest rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band, with no change to the width and the level at which it is centred.

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, September 2025. The September 2025 Survey was sent out on 12 August 2025 to a total of 25 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 20 respondents (a response rate of 80%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts.The Singapore economy expanded by 4.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 3.0% in the previous survey (Chart 1). In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 0.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025...

  

MAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q4, October 2025. After a 1.2% year-on-year decline in private consumption expenditure in 25Q1, a 1.9% rebound in 25Q2 helped lift Hong Kong’s economic growth to 3.1% for the quarter. However, frequent severe weather disrupted logistics and adversely affected retail and tourism-related activities, with GDP growth expected to slow to 2.7% in 25Q3. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 3.8% in 25Q4, reflecting more cautious business sentiment amid weakening external demand. While entering a rate-cut cycle is expected to benefit Hong Kong’s economy, persistent US–China trade tensions and uncertainty over the US inflation trajectory leave the pace and scale of Fed rate cuts in doubt, tempering investment and trade growth. Hong Kong’s real GDP growth in 25Q4 is forecast to slow to 2.5%. The economic growth for Hong Kong in 2025 as a whole is projected to be 2.8%, in line with the previously published forecast.

  

HKU

A Pacific Eyes Intelligence-Sharing Agreement, October 2025. The Pacific Islands face cascading difficulties arising from great power competition and a range of overlapping transnational governance, environmental, and technological challenges. The Pacific Islands have become an arena of intensifying geopolitical competition, with Beijing making unprecedented inroads. China’s secretive 2022 security pact with Solomon Islands signalled a new phase, raising fears of a future Chinese military presence in Australia’s immediate neighbourhood. Since then, China has dispatched police advisers across the region, signed an action plan for a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Cook Islands, and increased the frequency of its naval and coastguard deployments in Pacific Island waters...

  

Lowy

Pacific Aid Map, October 2025. The global development landscape faces a moment of profound upheaval as major donors, most notably the United States, sharply cut back on foreign aid. These reductions carry far-reaching consequences, not only for sustainable development in the world’s poorest countries, but also in the contest for influence between China and Western nations. The Pacific Islands face an especially uncertain outlook as the world’s most aid-dependent region, confronting both large development financing gaps and an aid landscape increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition. Against such a backdrop, this eighth edition of the Pacific Aid Map presents five key findings that are critical to understanding the future of development and competition in the region...

  

Lowy

The People’s Liberation Army: Modernised but Still Mistrusted, October 2025. Modernisation is at the core of the mission of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to change the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and beyond—to ‘set off a wave of modernisation in the Global South,’ as China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping has urged. This is all about party control. This naturally incorporates the party’s military arm: the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi has stressed that it means accelerating the PLA’s development into ‘a world-class army’ capable of seizing and holding down Taiwan, which in recent decades the party has insisted is an integral part of the PRC, even though the PRC has never ruled it...

  

ASPI

The Women, Peace and Security Agenda at 25: Views From the Strategist, October 2025. On 31 October, 2000, the United Nations Security Council passed the landmark Resolution 1325 and created the Women, Peace and Security agenda. To commemorate the resolution’s 25th anniversary, ASPI has released this compendium which features a collection of articles published on The Strategist. This series reflects on the progress made since 2000, including the transformative changes in women’s representation across security. More women are performing in combat roles, participating in peace processes and representing their nations in multilateral institutions...

  

ASPI

ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN (7th Edition), October 2025. The 7th edition of ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN covers US relations with the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Topics include: diplomatic and defense ties, trade and investment (with spotlights on the digital economy, agriculture, semiconductor chips, health, and energy and infrastructure sectors), job creation, travel and tourism, student exchanges, ASEAN Americans, and sister relationships. This publication was produced in partnership with the US-ASEAN Business Council and the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

  

EWC

Vietnam Matters for America / America Matters for Vietnam, October 2025. This project explores the important and multifaceted relationship between the United States and Vietnam at the national, state, and local levels. Part of the Asia Matters for America initiative, this publication and the website AsiaMattersforAmerica.org provide tools for a global audience to explore the growing connections in the US-Vietnam relationship in the 21st century.

  

EWC

Archipelago in the Crossfire: Indonesia Between Washington and Beijing, October 2025. As strategic competition between China and the United States intensifies across the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia has become a critical arena of competition. Positioned at the center of this contest is Indonesia, one of the region’s most politically influential countries and a leading member of ASEAN. Given its strategic importance, Jakarta is likely to become a central focus for both Beijing and Washington as they vie to advance their competing interests in the region. Examining Indonesia’s past political relationships with the two leading powers of the Indo-Pacific offers valuable insight into how past interactions may shape Jakarta’s political decision-making in the event of a major regional crisis that might threaten the existing balance of power...

  

ISDP

NATO Engagement in the Indo-Pacific? A Three-Country Case Study: India, Indonesia & the Philippines, October 2025. Notwithstanding some overlap in NATO’s core interests with India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, particularly deterrence and crisis prevention, in its current incarnation, direct NATO cooperation with these three pivotal countries in the Indo-Pacific is difficult to reconcile. The Indo-Pacific strategic landscape and the unpredictability characterizing the second Trump administration make Indo-Pacific partners hedge even more, such that most resident actors oppose any factor or actor that may destabilize the region. This is reflected by India and Indonesia’s disinterest in direct traditional security cooperation with NATO...

  

ISDP

The Dragon in the North: On China’s Arctic Push, October 2025. China’s self-proclamation as a “near-Arctic state” and its recent deployment of icebreakers near Alaska illustrate its growing Arctic push. In response, the United States has reinforced surveillance and naval reconnaissance through Operation Frontier Sentinel, commissioned the heavy icebreaker USCGC Storis, and coordinated NATO patrols across the northern waters. The Arctic giant, Russia, combines militarization with economic development by reviving Soviet-era bases along the Northern Sea Route and testing advanced weaponry while concurrently seeking investors for Arctic energy resources...

  

ISDP

North Korea’s Ascension as a Global Player: Security Implications and Diplomatic Challenges, October 2025. Over the past few years, North Korea has undergone a dramatic transformation from an isolated pariah state to an increasingly influential global actor, reshaping security dynamics in Asia and beyond. Kim Jong Un’s international standing, elevated by the Trump summits of 2018–2019 and then again through Pyongyang’s deepening alignment with Moscow since 2022, has direct security implications that reach far beyond Northeast Asia. These developments demand that the U.S. and its allies adapt their strategies to counter the growing threat posed by Pyongyang. The structural shift in North Korea’s global position carries profound implications, including accelerated North Korean military modernization through Russian support...

  

ISDP

Why the Republic of Korea Matters to the Nordic Countries, September 2025. The global situation is increasingly insecure, with, among others, an unpredictable U.S. isolating itself from traditional allies, a Sino-American geopolitical struggle that threatens to destabilize international affairs. Both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Nordic states are in this scenario, striving to reestablish collaboration with the U.S while also diversifying their relations to mitigate dangers to their national security by boosting cooperation with like-minded allies. This Asia paper aims to highlight some current areas of cooperation with the intent of emphasizing the importance and compatibility of Nordic-ROK cooperation...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #20: Re-Examining the Five-Point Consensus and ASEAN’s Response to the Myanmar Crisis. The Five-Point Consensus (5PC) encapsulates ASEAN’s response to the Myanmar crisis precipitated by the military’s seizure of power on 1 February 2021. As criticism about the effectiveness of ASEAN continue to mount, the current chair of the association has proposed the appointment of a “permanent” special envoy by extending its term beyond one year. In addition to revisiting its tenure, ASEAN should also consider providing the special envoy with the necessary political backing, adequate funding and efficient administrative support. More importantly, ASEAN needs to expand its mandate from an exclusive focus on conflict management to conflict resolution...

  

ISEAS

Connected Yet Conflicted: Exploring the Effects of Screen Use on Well-being and Relationships, October 2025. This study examines how screen use relates to well‑being and family dynamics in Singapore, surveying 1,033 parents in Sept–Oct 2024; 517 of these formed matched parent–teenager pairs, plus a booster of 195 lower‑income parents to surface socio‑economic differences: 1) Digital Life Today: Screens are deeply woven into daily routines. On average, teenagers reported 8 hours 21 minutes of screen use per day, while parents averaged 8 hours 44 minutes. Smartphones and computers were the most commonly used devices...

  

IPS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC

Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 2025 (Full Report). This issue explores topics including low-carbon development, progress in addressing stunting, education expansion as a tool for reducing infant and maternal mortality, and the impact of childhood vaccination on human capital formation.

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October 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Asian Development Outlook, September 2025 (Full Report, Analytical Chapter, and Highlights). The region’s outlook will be shaped by offsetting factors. Higher US tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty will weigh on economic activity. Robust domestic demand, electronics and AI-driven exports, and policy support will help cushion external headwinds. Inflation will continue to moderate, as energy and food prices ease further. Downside risks stem from renewed tariff hikes, geopolitical tensions, further deterioration in the PRC’s property market, and financial market volatility. Policymakers should intensify efforts to bolster resilience, relying on sound macroeconomic policies and fostering regional cooperation and integration.

  

ADB

Energy Transition Pathways and Partnerships: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, September 2025. Amid a shifting global landscape and ambitious growth targets, Vietnam is undertaking a critical energy transition to ensure national security and achieve its 2050 net-zero emissions commitment. This paper explores Vietnam’s strategic pathways toward a green, digital, and innovation-driven energy model, emphasizing the importance of institutional reforms and climate finance and underpinned by its recently adjusted Power Development Plan VIII (PDP 8)...

  

EWC

Humanitarian Operation Migrants and People-to-People Diplomacy: US-Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, September 2025. This paper examines how Vietnamese migrants, especially from the Humanitarian Operation program after the Vietnam War, have quietly transformed Vietnam–US relations. Findings show that by sharing their stories, values, and traditions in everyday life, migrants form a foundation for later Vietnamese arrivals and reshape how Americans perceive Vietnam. Human ties remain the most enduring and transformative element in Vietnam–US relations. This bottom-up approach to diplomacy reveals how ordinary individuals can bridge divides and sustain meaningful engagement beyond official channels.

  

EWC

Bougainville’s Future: A Roadmap for Development, September 2025. Despite an overwhelming vote for independence in the 2019 referendum, Bougainville’s continued underperformance in socio-economic development casts doubt over its future as a sovereign polity. The singular focus of Bougainville’s elected leaders on the goal of independence has overshadowed the practical challenges of running a new country and how political independence will deliver prosperity for Bougainvilleans. Prosperity should be measured in terms of improved quality of life for Bougainvilleans. The partisan narrative of “independence or nothing” has encouraged a belief that independence is the panacea to development challenges...

  

Lowy

Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Influence Index 2025. Southeast Asia is one of the most geopolitically contested regions of the world. It engages the interest of superpowers China and the United States, Indo‑Pacific powers such as Australia, India, Japan, and South Korea, and those from further afield, including European countries. The Southeast Asia Influence Index provides the first comprehensive analysis of the relative importance of these partners for each Southeast Asian country across five dimensions of influence, as well as analysis of the important relationships between Southeast Asian countries themselves...

  

Lowy

Space Logistics: Why Rules Matter for Safety, Security and Sustainability, September 2025. With space activities expanding at an unprecedented rate, driven in part by a growing number of commercial players, space logistics is becoming increasingly critical to ensure the sustainable use of space. Space logistics encompasses a range of activities, including the remote maintenance of satellites in orbit, delivering supplies to space stations and satellites—possibly in the future to lunar and Martian habitats—and efforts to address the growing problem of space debris. The key issues that need to be addressed related to space logistics are the dual-use nature of rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs), their consequences in terms of space debris, and the sustainability and governance of the arena...

  

ASPI

Hyperscale Cloud and Shared Security in the Indo-Pacific: Views From the Strategist, August 2025. Across the Indo-Pacific, cloud computing is no longer a niche technology conversation. It is the substrate of contemporary national security and economic resilience. From battlefield logistics to health systems, from real-time crisis response to AI development, hyperscale cloud infrastructure is becoming the engine room of state capacity. As strategic competition sharpens across the region, that transformation is taking on clearer dimensions. Cloud infrastructure, such as undersea cables, is now a strategic national asset. Its security, interoperability and governance are becoming critical tests of sovereignty and trust...

  

ASPI

Curbing the Cost of Cybersecurity Fragmentation: An Agenda for Harmonisation Across the Indo-Pacific, August 2025. This report documents the width and depth of fragmentation of cybersecurity regulation in the Indo-Pacific—focusing on Australia, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. It investigates whether the divergent regulatory burdens placed on the private sector is creating a systemic vulnerability and therefore deserves a strategic policy response. We conclude that there is a strong degree of coherence in the principles and overall approaches to cybersecurity governance, but that fragmentation arises primarily at the level of implementation...

  

ASPI

Scamland Myanmar: How Conflict and Crime Syndicates Built a Global Fraud Industry, August 2025. While it’s commonly understood that conflict-affected landscapes can often act as safe havens for transnational organised crime, little attention is paid to the central role that state actors play. In those areas, criminal networks can operate with impunity, frequently feeding into the conflict and subsistence economy. Those groups exploit law-enforcement gaps and complex territorial control patterns to capitalise on the prevailing disorder. However, in some cases, they find ways to integrate into the wartime economy through close collaboration with state authorities. A recent example of this is the late Assad regime’s dependence on the illegal drug trade, specifically the large-scale production and export of Captagon...

  

ASPI

Political and Diplomatic Implications of South Korean Defense Cooperation with NATO: The Case of Sweden, September 2025. South Korea’s new administration seeks closer defense industrial cooperation with NATO, but also engagement with NATO adversaries, Russia and North Korea. For NATO’s newest member Sweden, defense cooperation with South Korea raises questions about security linkages between the Indo-Pacific and the Korean Peninsula, where it has historically played a unique diplomatic role. This policy brief explores the compatibility of South Korean and Swedish policy goals in Europe and in the Indo-Pacific through three aspects...

  

ISDP

Revitalizing Transatlantic Defense: Lessons from Central Europe’s Security Innovation, September 2025. Europe’s post-Cold War demilitarization has led to critical defense dependencies on the United States, a vulnerability exposed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and growing signals of potential U.S. retrenchment. These developments have prompted a strategic reassessment among European NATO members, who now acknowledge the urgent need to increase defense investments to uphold collective security. The recent Hague Summit represents a pivotal moment, as allies begin to view burden-sharing not as a concession to American pressure but as an existential imperative...

  

ISDP

Japan’s Official Security Assistance to the Philippines: Legitimizing a New Strategic Tool, September 2025. Both Japan and the Philippines are navigating an increasingly intricate security landscape, in which various actors––China being the most significant––are making unilateral efforts to alter the regional power dynamics. The tensions are particularly concentrated in the maritime domain, with the Philippines emerging as a prominent adversary of China’s actions in the South China Sea. Numerous questions remain regarding the aid program’s future trajectory. This issue brief examines how the Japanese government establishes legitimacy to extend its Official Security Assistance (OSA) to the Philippines...

  

ISDP

Crossroads After the 2025 EU-China Summit, September 2025. Despite an initial rethaw of official ties earlier in the year, the 2025 EU-China Summit was marked by diplomatic frictions, cancellations, and last-minute adjustments. The meeting produced modest outcomes on export controls, climate targets, and regulatory cooperation—incremental steps with uncertain substance. Yet the narrow scope of deliverables reflected Beijing’s reluctance to address core EU concerns, while Brussels faced down parallel pressures from transatlantic trade disputes and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. More a crossroads than a jubilee for Brussels, the summit highlighted the weight of unresolved trade frictions and China’s deepening ties with Russia...

  

ISDP

The “New” Frontier: Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Arctic and its Geopolitical Implications, September 2025. This book examines Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic and forms part of a series of research projects at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). Its aim is to enhance understanding of the extent to which Russia and China cooperate across different policy areas. Although the Arctic remains highly relevant in global geopolitics, it has been largely neglected in recent years due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and other militarized conflicts. This volume brings together insights from 12 scholars with diverse areas of expertise, offering both a broad and in-depth perspective on the region and the dynamics of Sino-Russian cooperation, or lack thereof...

  

ISDP

China’s Climate Commitments and the Tibetan Paradox: An Argument for Accountability under the UNFCCC, September 2025. China today is the second-largest economy and the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It plays a pivotal role in any global climate resolution. Yet its internal environmental practices, especially in the ecologically critical region of Tibet, have raised questions about the consistency of its international commitments with its local governance models. Its classification as a “developing country” within the UNFCCC structure also does not reflect its economic and geopolitical stature. Additionally, China’s efforts to attain global climate leadership are undermined by a lack of full transparency...

  

ISDP

Iran’s Interpretation of the Law of the Sea and Japan’s FOIP Strategy, September 2025. Given Japan’s heavy reliance on maritime routes for foreign trade, its ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy is closely tied to the rule of law at sea, maritime security, and freedom of navigation. Furthermore, due to Japan’s dependence on energy supplies from the Persian Gulf and the critical importance of securing energy transit routes, this strategy also extends to the Persian Gulf region. In this context, Tokyo emphasizes the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and its own Ocean Policy. Meanwhile, Iran, despite having signed UNCLOS, has not ratified it and implements its provisions selectively...

  

ISDP

Moral Attitudes in Flux: Comparing Trends across Religions in Singapore, August 2025. Singapore's multireligious compact — built on freedom of belief and a shared civic space — has to reckon with debates on family, sexuality, and individual choice. Against this backdrop, this paper draws on the 2024 IPS Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), a nationally representative study of 4,000 residents. Where relevant, these responses are compared with results from the 2013 and 2018 RRL waves. Our aim is to chart how Singaporeans evaluate everyday moral questions (from gambling and fidelity to cohabitation, premarital sex, divorce and same-sex issues); how these views differ by age and religious tradition and how they have shifted over the past decade within Singapore's distinctive multicultural framework...

  

IPS

Religious Identity and Practice among Singaporeans, August 2025. This report presents findings from the 2024 Institute of Policy Studies' Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), which obtained responses from a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singapore residents, and compares these findings with prior surveys from 2013 and 2018. It examines identity dimensions that are important to Singaporeans, particularly religion, the practice of religion, the level of religiosity in Singapore today and how it has evolved, as well as the different profiles of Singaporeans in terms of how they relate to religion in their daily lives...

  

IPS

Prejudice, Attitudes and Critical Perspectives on Race in Singapore, July 2025. Singapore’s multicultural compact, historically anchored in principles of equality and harmony, faces renewed scrutiny amid global debates on racial justice, prejudice, and identity politics. As international discourses on Critical Race Theory (CRT) and structural inequality increasingly permeate local conversations, it is imperative to assess how these global trends intersect with local understandings of race and prejudice. Motivated by this context, this report presents findings from the 2024 Institute of Policy Studies' Survey on Race, Religion and Language (RRL), which canvassed responses from a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singapore residents, and compares these findings with prior surveys from 2013 and 2018...

  

IPS

Borrowing Berlo: Enhancing Public Understanding of Singapore's Online Harms Laws, July 2025. Singapore’s approach to online harms is both ambitious and multifaceted. From misinformation and digital abuse to election interference and foreign influence, a growing body of legislation has emerged over the past decade to regulate behaviour and protect citizens in the digital domain. These laws are comprehensive and arguably world-leading; but for the average citizen, policymaker or media professional, they can feel like an alphabet soup, e.g.,POHA, POFMA, OCHA, FICA, CMA, ELIONA, and soon, OSRAA (see Figure 1). Legislation plays important roles, such as providing the authorities with the necessary levers to act against offences and perpetrators and giving victims legal recourse to seek justice and compensation for the harms they suffer...

  

IPS

Friendships in Flux: Generational and Socio-Economic Divides in Singapore, May 2025. This working paper, Friendships in Flux: Generational and Socio-Economic Divides in Singapore, is based on data from the IPS Survey on Race, Religion, and Language (RRL) survey, conducted across three iterations (2013, 2018, and 2024). While the overarching survey comprises multiple thematic sections mostly associated with race, religion (R&R), and language — ranging from identity markers to policy issues — this paper spotlights a subset of question items on close friendships and respondents' willingness to interact across demographic lines. Specifically, we examine how generational cohorts (younger vs. older) and socio-economic status (particularly education level and income) influence both the number of close friendships and individuals' perceptions of engaging in cross-R&R and cross-SES social interactions...

  

IPS
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September 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2025 (Full Report):

Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific covers 50 ADB regional member economies: Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Niue, New Zealand, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taipei, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Türkiye, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, and Viet Nam.

  

ADB

Navigating Global Value Chains and Economics in 2025: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, August 2025. Vietnam has emerged as an indispensable link in Indo-Pacific manufacturing networks. The country’s strategic advantage lies in its ability to adapt to shifting policies while mitigating risks from trade frictions. To sustain these gains, Vietnam must invest strategically in long-term competitiveness by upgrading workforce skills, improving infrastructure, and climbing the value chain through enhanced design and innovation capabilities. Vietnam’s adaptability has made it a prime beneficiary of the ongoing realignment in global supply chains driven by US trade policy changes. Tariffs on Chinese goods and broader efforts to "de-risk" supply lines have prompted many manufacturers to expand operations in Vietnam, sharply boosting exports and investment...

  

EWC

Defense and Security Cooperation as a Pillar of Engagement: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific, August 2025. The elevation of Vietnam–US relations in September 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest tier in Vietnam’s current diplomatic hierarchy, not only reflects Hanoi’s ongoing efforts to diversify its international relations but also underscores the strategic weight assigned to its ties with Washington. The CSP would have been improbable without sustained progress in defense and security cooperation, which has served both as a catalyst for mutual trust and as a practical mechanism for advancing more substantive, effective collaboration. The past decade has been instrumental in institutionalizing cooperation in defense and security between Vietnam and the United States at a time when mutual trust was still being carefully built and consolidated. This institutionalization has carried a dual-layered significance...

  

EWC

Observations on the State of Cybersecurity in Southeast Asia, August 2025. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated Southeast Asia's digital transformation, fueling economic growth across the region. By mid-2025, digital economies in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have largely surpassed expectations, contributing significantly to their GDPs and attracting substantial investment. However, this rapid digital development has brought a sharp increase in cybersecurity risks. The region has become a prime target for cyberattacks, accounting for 31 percent of global incidents in 2023. This paper investigates the complexities of Southeast Asia's cybersecurity landscape, classifying nations based on their capabilities (Developed, Developing, Emerging, Limited). It highlights common challenges, which include significant gaps in technology and skilled personnel, unique national cybersecurity priorities, the US-China competition...

  

EWC

Southeast Asia’s Evolving Defence Partnerships, August 2025. Southeast Asian countries have diversified their defence partnerships amid intensifying strategic competition and regional security challenges. While the United States and China remain key security actors, countries in the region are engaging with a broader array of external partners to enhance their autonomy and military capabilities. Australia, Japan, India, and South Korea are all important defence partners for the region, offering capacity-building, training, and technology cooperation. These partnerships reflect Southeast Asia’s search for resilience through engagement with multiple partners while avoiding overdependence on any single actor.

  

Lowy

How to Scale up Australia’s Investment in Pacific Climate Adaptation, August 2025. Pacific Island countries are among the most climate vulnerable in the world and face huge unmet adaptation financing needs, especially for investment in physical infrastructure. Australia has recently made progress in scaling up its investment, but its main mechanisms for doing so — the Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific (AIFFP) and its dedicated climate window — have almost run out of concessional financing firepower. Australian investment is still modest relative to the Pacific’s financing needs, but an increase will require difficult trade-offs given the limited scope to lift the overall Australian aid budget. The Pacific’s extreme climate vulnerability means investing more in climate adaptation is good for the region’s development. It is also smart diplomacy, providing highly visible and tangible evidence of Australian support on the Pacific’s most pressing concern...

  

Lowy

Northern Australia: Securing a Developing Economy to Secure a Developed Nation, August 2025. Northern Australia is central to the nation’s future. Economically, it serves as the gateway to Indo-Pacific trade, is home to world-class resources and represents a frontier of opportunity. Strategically, it’s the keystone of Australia’s national defence posture. Yet, despite its immense importance, the region continues to face persistent structural challenges, including limited private-sector investment; low local economic capture from major projects; workforce and service deficits; and deteriorating public safety indicators. The Northern Australia Action Plan 2024–2029 describes a refreshed agenda for the north, encompassing economic development and delivering on a broad range of government priorities to support the region’s success...

  

ASPI

Australia-Indonesia Defence and Security Partnership: Overcoming Asymmetric Aspirations to Tackle Common Threats, August 2025. Australian officials accustomed to dealing with Indonesia are cognisant of the limitations to strategic cooperation, but Canberra needs to be more realistic and creative in how it approaches the critical relationship with Jakarta. Australia places greater strategic value on the relationship with Indonesia than vice versa. That dynamic is unlikely to change fundamentally. Optimism and ambition will still be needed to achieve a more balanced partnership, but it’s also crucial that Australian policymakers ground their expectations in this reality. Politicians, in particular, should guard against optimism bias. There are still plenty of opportunities for both countries to engage more deeply across a range of shared security challenges...

  

ASPI

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #19: Nahdlatul Ulama and its Political Engagement with Indonesian Presidents, August 2025 Since Indonesia adopted a direct presidential election in 2004, which applies a one-man, one-vote system, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country’s largest Muslim organization, has played an increasingly significant role in elections. Candidates actively develop ties with the organization’s leaders and vast voter base to improve their chances of winning elections. Factors driving the political engagement between Indonesia’s presidents and NU are arguably contingent on the dynamics of the existing political situation. Whereas material or transactional factors defined the political engagement between NU and presidents Soeharto, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Prabowo Subianto, the relationships were driven mainly by ideological factors under the administrations of Soekarno and Joko Widodo...

  

ISEAS

Creating ‘Facts on the Mountains’: China’s Gray Zone Playbook in the Himalayas, August 2025. China’s policy in the Himalayas represents a calculated and systematic application of the gray zone strategy previously honed in its maritime territorial disputes. Rather than relying solely on direct military action, Beijing employs a military-civil fusion model to reshape the strategic landscape along the border. Central to this effort is an aggressive infrastructure push—building roads, railways, airfields, and strategically placed border villages—that alters the region’s logistical and demographic realities. These developments serve to establish de facto control without crossing the threshold of open conflict, gradually shifting the status quo in China’s favor...

  

ISDP

Xi Jinping in Lhasa: Spectacular Delusions, August 2025. The spectacular party-state has a frontier construction theory that classifies Tibet as a national security risk, because Tibet is full of Tibetans, for whom the Party’s interest do not come first. Partly this is because party-speak makes no sense. Then you discover “promote the construction of the Chinese nation’s community” means abandoning one’s mother tongue, opting instead to believe not only are you really racially Chinese, so too were all your deluded ancestors. Xi Jinping flies to Lhasa to inspect his campaign to rectify the minds of the Tibetans. On cue the assembled Tibetans duly perform in song and dance their enthusiasm for discovering they are actually Chinese, embracing Chinese characteristics smothered on everything Tibetan, declaiming their love for the core leader because the Party’s interests always come first...

  

ISDP

Taiwan’s National Security Strategy under Trump 2.0, August 2025. Compared to the cautious restraint of his first term, Trump 2.0 exudes confidence and the demeanor of a domineering CEO in a context of international politics. By fully leveraging America’s unparalleled economic and military influence, within less than a year after returning to office, Trump has already stirred global unrest. Trump 2.0 has shifted U.S. global strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific to counter China’s rise, especially prioritizing military deterrence against Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. His framing of China as America’s primary strategic adversary offers an opportunity for strategic alignment with Taiwan. In response, President Lai Ching-te introduced the “Four Pillars of Peace action plan”—strengthening defense, economic security, alliances with democracies, and dignified cross-Strait engagement—to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific stability...

  

ISDP

The Ecological Cost of Security: Military Development and Environmental Change in Tibet, August 2025. The expansion of the Tibet Military Region represents a critical intersection of geopolitical strategy and environmental preservation, creating complex challenges for both regional security and global climate patterns. This policy brief focuses on the larger environmental impact of Chinese militarization in Tibet, acknowledging limitations in assessing effects on local communities due to restricted access for independent researchers, but also the lack of reporting on the Chinese attempts to counter the climate impact. Current approaches to military development in Tibet are creating environmental changes that extend far beyond the immediate footprint of military activities. These changes threaten not only local ecosystems but regional climate stability and water security for hundreds of millions of people downstream...

  

ISDP

Strengthening the Liberal International Order through Enhanced Korea–Nordic Cooperation, August 2025. The global governance landscape is at a critical turning point. The foundations of the liberal international order—such as the multilateral trading system and shared norms and rules—are weakening, while the spread of authoritarianism, deepening geopolitical instability, and the United States’ shift toward selective engagement have created a widening leadership vacuum. In this regard, the need for new strategic partnerships to defend and renew the liberal, rules-based order has become more urgent than ever. Strategic cooperation between South Korea and the European Union—particularly through closer engagement with the Nordic countries—offers a promising model for addressing these challenges. As a dynamic democracy shaped by the liberal order, South Korea is well positioned to help shape global standards and practices...

  

ISDP
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August 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Addressing Maritime Security in Smaller South Asian States: Opportunities for US, Indian, and International Partnerships, July 2025. Under the dominant US paradigm of great-power competition, the maritime domain as a concept can often be viewed as shorthand for maintaining open access to sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and assuring sufficient deterrence against Chinese and Russian maritime coercion. The December 2020 joint US Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard Maritime Strategy emphasized these points. While these issues are important, this framing downplays two key US and global security factors...

  

EWC

Bangladesh's Maritime Security: Emerging Threats and Responses, July 2025. The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is strategically and economically vital for Bangladesh, supporting 90 percent of its trade and 100 percent of its energy transportation. It has critical geopolitical significance for Bangladesh as an influential littoral state of the BoB, connected with the Indian Ocean. The country faces maritime security threats, particularly non-traditional ones, from port security to human trafficking. Peaceful settlement of maritime disputes with Myanmar and India in the early 2010s transformed Bangladesh into a maritime nation. For such a maritime-dependent economy, ensuring maritime security is essential for the country’s progress and stability...

  

EWC

Maritime Security Challenges in the Maldives, July 2025. The Maldives faces intense, interconnected, and growing maritime security challenges. Out of these, the most serious maritime security threats are natural disasters associated with climate change, as demonstrated by the consequences of the Tsunami of 2004 in which 12,000 people became homeless, 21 out of 87 tourist resorts had to be closed, while six suffered major damage and had to be rebuilt. Some islands had to be fully evacuated, and their populations relocated to other inhabited islands...

  

EWC

Enhancing Maritime Security in Sri Lanka, July 2025. Sri Lanka's strategic location at the crossroads of the Indian Ocean renders it a pivotal actor in regional and global maritime security. As the Indo-Pacific becomes the epicenter of renewed great power competition and
nontraditional security threats, Sri Lanka faces mounting challenges that stem from geopolitical tensions, illegal fishing, transnational crime, and environmental degradation. This paper assesses the key maritime threats confronting Sri Lanka and evaluates the country's capacity to respond to these evolving dynamics...

  

EWC

Southeast Asia Aid Map: 2025 Key Findings, July 2025. Southeast Asia finds itself at an uncertain moment in its development trajectory. The region’s highly successful export-driven economic model is at risk as the Trump administration looks to dramatically reshape the global trade order, with Southeast Asia potentially facing especially punitive US tariffs. At the same time, official development finance (ODF) to the region — encompassing traditional aid, such as grants and concessional loans (ODA), as well as other official flows (OOF) from foreign governments and multilateral bodies — is set to decrease as major Western donors cut back on foreign aid...

  

Lowy

Match-Fit for the Global Contest?: Innovation, Leadership, Culture and the Future of Australia’s National Intelligence Community, July 2025. The business model of the Australian national intelligence community (NIC), including the ways in which the NIC collects intelligence, analyses that intelligence and then provides it to busy senior customers, is being challenged. At the heart of that challenge lies the NIC’s relationship with innovation and its ability to take advantage of the opportunities that innovation can bring. Innovation matters to Australia because our ability to leverage it will be critical to overcoming Australia’s ‘national capacity’ problem in the coming decades...

  

ASPI

A Critical Juncture: Sustaining and Strengthening the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security, July 2025. Australia’s intelligence community has long served as a quiet cornerstone of national security, adapting to evolving threats with professionalism and bipartisan trust. But today’s strategic environment—defined by cyber threats, foreign interference and grey-zone competition—demands more from our intelligence services than ever before. As agencies expand their roles across economic, technological and geopolitical domains, oversight mechanisms must also evolve in tandem to ensure accountability, transparency and public trust...

  

ASPI

Europe’s Green Technology Development: Chinese Challenges to Research and Innovation Security, July 2025. As Europe pursues its ambitious Green Deal objectives, the continent faces complex challenges in balancing open scientific collaboration with the need to protect strategic green technologies and intellectual property. This issue brief investigates the evolving dynamics between European green development initiatives and emerging research security concerns related to China’s growing technological influence. The analysis examines Europe’s vulnerability in critical green technology supply chains, the implications of China’s targeted research investments, and emerging policy frameworks to screen foreign investments while maintaining innovation competitiveness...

  

ISDP

Safeguarding the Global Chip Supply: Lessons from PRC’s Technology Acquisition Tactics in Taiwan, July 2025. Taiwan’s technological advantage, especially in the semiconductor sector, serves as a key factor for deterring a Chinese invasion. However, there are documented cases of the PRC using multiple strategies to acquire Taiwanese technologies to reduce its reliance on Taiwan, and international supply chains, before possible military action. This issue brief will aim to outline these strategies, which include industrial espionage, talent poaching, and the use of shell companies, investment channels and joint ventures for technological appropriation or further cross-strait integration. Amid intensifying Chinese efforts to appropriate Taiwanese technology, the EU and other Western allies must draw strategic lessons from Taiwan to protect their own supply chains and thereby increase their economic security.

  

ISDP

Safeguarding the Indo-Pacific Region: Insights from Australia on Maritime Security, July 2025. In an era marked by rapid geopolitical transformation and unprecedented technological advances, maritime security in the Indo-Pacific has become a critical imperative for both national and regional stability. On April 8, 2025, the Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP), in collaboration with Murdoch University Study on Human Security and the Indo-Pacific, organized a talk with Dr. Thomas S. Wilkins on the topic Safeguarding the Indo-Pacific Region: Insights from Australia, India, and Japan on Human/Maritime Security. Dr. Wilkins is a Distinguished Research Fellow (non-resident) at The Japan Forum for International Relations and an Associate Professor in International Security at the University of Sydney, specializing in Asia-Pacific security affairs...

  

ISDP

China’s Military-Civil Fusion in Space: Strategic Transformations and Implications for Europe, June 2025. China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) strategy is a multi-purpose tool to enhance national power, accelerate technological innovation, and drive industrial and economic development. MCF has reshaped China’s space sector, driving rapid innovation and fostering the rise of private commercial space actors aligned with national security and industrial goals. Europe has already been outpaced by both China and the U.S. in key space capabilities, weakening its defense posture and reducing its strategic influence in a domain that is increasingly shaping the broader geopolitical balance. Without credible capabilities, the EU risks being sidelined from setting the rules and standards in the space domain, limiting its ability to defend strategic interests and values...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #18: The Democratic Action Party at Sixty: Struggles over Seniority, Structure and Strategy. Traditionally an opposition outfit, the Democratic Action Party (DAP) has evolved to become a mainstream operation. A consequential player in Malaysian politics, it now has forty members of parliament and ninety state assembly representatives. Because of its cadre-based structure, the DAP usually has orderly party elections. Nonetheless, foundational issues have caused some disagreements to bubble to the surface—most recently at the 2025 National Party Congress. Now approaching its sixtieth year, the party is grappling with three key challenges...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #17: Youth Perceptions of Income Inequality in Six Southeast Asian Countries. While much research has explored how perceptions of income inequality influence political outcomes—such as political participation, behaviour, and support for democracy—less attention has been given to how a country’s economic and political conditions shape these perceptions. This article argues that economic outlook and political stability play a crucial role in shaping how youths perceive income inequality. A youth and civic engagement survey conducted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute between August and October 2024 found that Indonesian, Filipino and Thai youths are the most pessimistic about the economic prospects and political conditions of their countries. This bleak outlook aligns closely with their negative perceptions of income inequality...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #16: Myanmar’s Uncharted Territories: Pitfalls and Prospects in Emergent Forms of Governance. An escalation of violence in Myanmar has led to a significant loss of territories by the Myanmar junta and reconfigured the country’s political terrain. The territories can presently be characterized broadly into Junta-controlled areas with low resistance, junta-controlled areas with high resistance, active armed conflict areas, areas controlled by highly vulnerable non-state armed groups, areas controlled by non-state armed groups that are not as vulnerable, and border areas sheltering internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. Each of these are evolving on a weekly or monthly basis, igniting both optimistic and pessimistic responses from Myanmar civilians and policy/scholar communities...

  

ISEAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q3, July 2025. Hong Kong’s economic growth accelerated to 3.1% in 25Q1, primarily driven by the surge in exports as shipments were rushed ahead of anticipated trade tensions. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 25Q2, a moderation from the 25Q1 quarter that reflects the impact of the ongoing China-US trade uncertainties. Shifts in consumer behavior and rising cross-border consumption have contributed to a more challenging business environment in Hong Kong. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.6% in 25Q3...

  

HKU

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