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July 2025 Current Topics

  

Source

 

 

  

 

The Importance of Taiwanese Business in the Evolving US Policy Toward China, June 2025. Taiwanese businesses have played a key role in the effectiveness of the US policy toward China over the past few decades. During the Cold War era, the close political ties paved the way for an intimate business relationship between Taiwan and the United States. Taiwanese small businesses’ close collaboration with US multinational corporations contributed to Taiwan’s economic miracle that sustained the island’s national defense expenditure and reduced the US military burden, in the face of the potential armed conflict with China. After the US-China reconciliation, their huge investments in China ensured the mainland followed the same East Asia’s export-oriented economic development model, thus contributing to the US policy of integrating China into the global economy at the time...

  

EWC

Climate Change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, May 2025. Growing challenges from sea level rise and risks to water and food security and human health are among the major issues detailed in this report on climate change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). Considerations for managing threatened resources, including fresh water, fisheries, and infrastructure, are outlined in the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities. Climate Change in the Republic of the Marshall Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors is a report developed by PIRCA. It is one in a series of reports aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) and the Hawaiian archipelago...

  

EWC

The World According to Xi Jinping, June 2025. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has upended geopolitics with his unpredictable, transactional, and often chaotic approach to foreign policy. But he has not changed Xi Jinping’s policy calculations. Rather, he has solidified them and created openings for Xi to drive a wedge into US alliances. Xi remains committed to turning China into a prosperous, high-tech superpower that will be able not just to challenge the United States, but to surpass it in many areas. Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy is built on a foundation of growing economic size and military clout. Xi has been able to pursue the Chinese Communist Party’s longstanding aims more aggressively because he has the economic, military, and diplomatic tools to do so...

  

Lowy

Net Assessments for Australia, June 2025. Established in 2023 in the Australian Department of Defence, net assessments will play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of the Australian Defence Force, disciplining long-term capability decisions to a series of key scenarios of concern. With Australia’s security requirements ranging across many more domains — and dependent on careful analysis of trends and networks beyond its shores — four additional Directorates of Net Assessment should be established, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Home Affairs, Treasury, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet...

  

Lowy

Shifting the Needle: Making Australia’s Research Security Ecosystem Work Smarter, June 2025. Since 2018, the Australian Government has made serious strides in countering espionage and foreign interference, including introducing policy and legislative reforms aimed at protecting the research and university sector. That was necessary. Foreign states have actively targeted Australia’s research ecosystem—seeking to influence research agendas, extract sensitive information and exploit institutional vulnerabilities. However, the threat landscape hasn’t remained static. It has evolved—and rapidly. Seven years on, adversaries are no longer simply stealing data or cultivating informal relationships...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 11, June 2025. Volume 11 also features a foreword by Senator the Hon Nita Green, Assistant Minister for Northern Australia. Senator Green calls readers attention to the Federal Government’s commitment to the North, while pointing to the rich opportunities available to northern Australia with the right continued investment. The 34 articles in this Compendium provide practical policy options which government could implement in the short term and the articles work together to create an overarching narrative that centres northern excellence. Thus, facilitating both the security and economic prosperity of northern Australia.

  

ASPI

From Domination to Co-creation: How Taiwan Sustains Semiconductor Leadership Through Adaptive Industrial Policy, June 2025. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, global supply chains are experiencing an unprecedented realignment. Semiconductors have emerged as a strategic asset, an industry where Taiwan has cemented global leadership. Its tech expertise, and robust democracy underpin Taiwan’s strategic value and reliability. While the EU has turned to large-scale subsidies to localize semiconductor production, Taiwan’s success is not the product of any single policy instrument, but reflects a long-term trajectory of institutional foresight, public-private synergy, and adaptive international engagement. As Taiwan’s experience shows, building lasting technological capacity requires more than subsidies...

  

ISDP

G7 Strategy for Countering Russian Information Operations in the Indo-Pacific Region: A Framework for Enhanced Multilateral Coordination and Response, June 2025. Russian Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) operations across the Indo-Pacific have evolved into sophisticated, multi-domain campaigns that systematically exploit political tensions and technological innovations. These operations demonstrate added complexity through strategic partnerships with China and North Korea, coordination with regional proxy networks, and alignment with right-wing nationalist movements spanning from Belgium to Japan. This expanded operational architecture enables Moscow to project influence across diverse political and cultural contexts, posing significant challenges to democratic institutions and the rules-based international order that the Group of Seven (G7) seek to preserve...

  

ISDP

Digital Sex Crimes on the Rise in South Korea, June 2025. South Korea is experiencing a rise in digital sex crimes, a trend likely linked to the growing number of young men expressing anti-feminist and sexist views toward women. Fueled by online forums known as the “manosphere,” groups of men, including a significant number of boys aged 10 to 14, congregate in these spaces to share misogynistic sentiments. Some users exploit the anonymity of the internet to commit digital sex crimes against women. These offenses vary in severity, ranging from voyeurism to sextortion. The emergence of advanced AI technologies has further enabled such crimes, presenting new challenges for authorities in Seoul...

  

ISDP

Climate and Environment in CCP’s Control Strategy in Tibet, June 2025. The Tibetan Plateau is warming rapidly, leading to significant ecological changes and threatening water security for millions. This issue brief examines the impact of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) governance on Tibet’s environment and the global environment. Rooted in Marxism-Leninism, the CCP’s governance model prioritizes Party control, resulting in policies that often neglect environmental and global concerns. The CCP’s development projects exacerbate these issues, causing habitat fragmentation and pollution. Social and cultural impacts include the erosion of Tibetan identity and traditional lifestyles. China’s global initiatives, such as the One Belt One Road program, further extend its development model, financing coal projects while resisting zero-emission initiatives...

  

ISDP

China’s 2025 Economic Playbook in a New Phase of Trade War, June 2025. Beijing’s economic targets for 2025 appear ambitious amid serious domestic and external challenges. This year’s plans show adjustments from previous years, focusing on domestic consumption, financial stability, and private sector support, where policy support is indeed essential. They also maintain continuity in technological advancement, reflecting Beijing’s enduring conviction that technology serves as the primary engine of economic growth. Meanwhile, Beijing has made extensive preparations for the greatest uncertainty of the year: the trade war. Are the proposed solutions sufficient to keep China on track? With Washington’s tariff increases and Beijing’s retaliatory measures now escalating into a full-scale trade war, a reassessment of China’s economic playbook has become urgent.

 

ISDP

Is Central Asia Stable? Conflict Risks and Drivers of Instability, May 2025. In 2022, violence erupted in four different areas of Central Asia. These episodes of violence were very different from each other, and all were contained within days or weeks. The region has seen little violence since. Yet their occurrence during a single year raised the question whether Central Asia is actually more prone to instability than a cursory overview would suggest. The episodes of violence in 2022 were varied: one was a conflict over territory between two states, while the other three were internal conflicts, featuring struggles over power and complex center-periphery relations. In Kazakhstan, demonstrations erupted in January 2022 but were hijacked by forces that sought to implement a coup attempt against the government, making the violence an issue over control over the country’s government...

  

ISDP

The State of Southeast Asia: 2025 Survey Report. The State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute reveals climate change as the region’s top challenge for the first time, followed by unemployment and economic recession, and intensifying economic tensions between the major powers. Concerns over aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea, global scam operations and the new US leadership were the region’s overall top geopolitical concerns. Amidst these challenges, more than a third of regional respondents expressed concern that ASEAN was ineffective in coping with these political and economic developments, and that ASEAN was becoming irrelevant in the new world order.

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #15: Obstacles to Reform in Myanmar: Lessons from the Past, for a Better Future. Myanmar experienced a decade of reforms from 2011 to 2021 under the administrations of the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the National League for Democracy (NLD). But policymakers in both administrations were often ill-prepared to push the economy to its potential, and they were hindered by a lack of resources and beset by obstacles at every turn. Challenges have persisted into the efforts of the current State Administration Council (SAC) military regime to administer the country after the 2021 coup. Obstacles include bureaucratic inertia resisting reforms; lack of experience, exposure and technical knowledge; deep-rooted corruption; hasty decision-making to show strong leadership; and overconfident bureaucrats with narrow perspectives...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #14: Nuclear Energy Developments in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are once again showing renewed interest in nuclear energy as a means to bolster energy security and meet decarbonization goals. Countries in this region have been exploring the use of civilian nuclear energy since the late 1950s, but their commitment has fluctuated over the decades, influenced by factors such as government support for nuclear energy, and global nuclear events affecting public opinion. The latest interest follows the revival of global interest in nuclear energy and progress in the development of advanced nuclear reactors as well as small modular reactors (SMRs)...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #13: Reviving UMNO: Party Institutionalization and Coalition Management in Selangor and Malacca. Since Malaysia’s independence in 1957 until 2018, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) was the single dominant party in control of an authoritarian regime, having been the main party within the long-ruling National Front (Barisan Nasional, or BN). Since its fall from power in 2018, key events have reshaped its party structure, leadership and overall support. Today, it sits in a large-tent coalition at the federal level, is part of the state government in seven states, and of these, controls the position of chief minister in three...

  

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 2, June 2025 (Full Report). This issue explores lessons for addressing poverty and inequality in Asia and the Pacific. It also covers topics including working after retirement, medical insurance, education expenditure, and digital services.

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June 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

DeepSeek and the Shifting AI Landscape in China and the US, May 2025. In early 2025, a powerful open-source artificial intelligence (AI) model from a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, emerged as a major challenger to US AI dominance. Delivering comparable performance at a fraction of the cost, it disrupted Silicon Valley’s proprietary, capital-intensive model, unsettled markets, and raised concerns about America’s technological leadership. This article examines DeepSeek’s technological, market, and geopolitical impact before contrasting China’s evolving AI strategy with that of the US. DeepSeek showcases the potential of open-source AI while highlighting challenges in scaling large models...

  

EWC

Empowering Blue Economy Communities through Data and Innovation, May 2025. As the blue economy grows in importance—encompassing sectors from fisheries and aquaculture to maritime transport and offshore energy—so too must our understanding of the families and communities who power it. Given the continuing rise in commercial fishing demand and aquaculture expansion, the importance of ocean resources for global food security and economic stability has become even more critical. Unsustainable practices like overfishing and ocean acidification further threaten both marine ecosystems and community livelihoods...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Why Australia and Japan Must Lead in Capacity Building in Southeast Asia, April 2025. Southeast Asian countries continue to face various maritime policy challenges. Beijing’s aggressive conduct toward other littoral states in the South China Sea and increased China-US tensions have highlighted the pervasiveness of traditional security threats while prospects for a more stable maritime order are undermined by the stalled negotiations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) over a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Integrating Whole-of-Government and Nation Approaches in the Philippines, April 2025. The Philippines faces mounting challenges in its maritime domain. This includes geopolitical tensions, criminal activities, environmental degradation, and socio-economic vulnerabilities in coastal communities. Institutional fragmentation and outdated policies further complicate these issues by hindering effective governance. To address these pressing concerns, revising and modernizing the National Maritime Security Policy and Strategy (NMSPP) is more than an administrative necessity. It is a strategic imperative...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Using Regional Maritime Information Sharing Centers to Form a Global Network, April 2025. Since the concept was first introduced in the early 2000s, the concept of Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) has become widely recognized as an important enabler for maritime security at the state and regional levels. A distinct manifestation of this development is the proliferation of a network of regional information sharing centers (ISCs) globally. While their mandates and set-ups vary, these ISCs have been instrumental in facilitating effective MDA through the collecting and consolidation of information from diverse sources and encouraging collaboration between maritime stakeholders...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Conceptualizing Navies as a Tool of Statecraft, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific’s maritime domain is a key arena in the rising China-United States strategic rivalry. However, viewing the maritime domain through the lens of strategic rivalry leads policymakers to focus on the traditional combat role of navies thereby obscuring the wider everyday role of sea power as a force in shaping and influencing the regional order. Yet navies offer policymakers many wider choices beyond the “thunder of battle,” especially for non-great powers who are unlikely to utilize sea power to impose their will through combat...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Combating Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated Fishing in the Indian Ocean Region, April 2025. Lines between traditional and non-traditional threats are diminishing, which has only heightened complexities for maritime security forces. While major maritime threats such as piracy, maritime terrorism, and smuggling are being countered by both regional and extra-regional forces in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), complex threats such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU) have largely remained unacknowledged as offenders skillfully exploit regulatory gaps and evade enforcement...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Indonesia's Pursuit of Effectivenes, April 2025. Indonesia, with its numerous islands and vast oceanic domain, plays a crucial role in shaping global maritime policies. From a historical perspective, a major success was its securing recognition as an archipelagic state in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a move that strengthened both its sovereignty and set important principles of international maritime law. However, despite such achievements, Indonesia continues to face significant maritime governance issues including illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, environmental degradation, smuggling, and piracy...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and the Case for a Bay of Bengal Coast Guard Forum, April 2025. The Bay of Bengal is an epicenter of non-traditional security threats. As such, coast guards in the sub-region have been at the forefront of managing and tackling security challenges. However, there is no institutional framework for enhancing the capacities of coast guards of the Bay of Bengal to take collaborative action. Therefore, creating a Bay of Bengal coast guard forum is an essential next step to addressing the non-traditional security threats and providing a platform to promote and institutionalize maritime best practices. The threats posed by non-state actors are the most pressing transnational vulnerabilities facing the littoral states of the Bay of Bengal...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Developing a National Unified Maritime Strategy for Japan, April 2025. Japan makes securing sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) a critical national priority as its maritime transportation accounts for 99.6% of the trade volume as of 2023. Moreover, Japan has played a pivotal role as a maritime nation. Despite this emphasis on securing SLOCs, Japan still lacks strategic communication about its foreign policy priorities. Japan needs to more clearly articulate its strategic ends, ways, and means in the Indo-Pacific Region. Strategic communication uses words, actions, or images to achieve foreign and security policy and impact the target audience’s decision making and behavior...

  

EWC

Navigating Indo-Pacific Waters: Maritime Governance and Strengthening ASEAN-IORA Cooperation Through Port Connectivity, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific’s dense shipping traffic has made the region vulnerable to severe vessel-sourced pollution threatening marine ecosystems and coastal economies. A striking example is the catastrophic oil spill in the waters of Mauritius, which underscored the urgent need for greater international cooperation to combat pollution from ships in the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) play key roles in addressing these challenges, leveraging their strategic positions to advance regional ocean governance...

  

EWC

Peak Repayment: China’s Global Lending, May 2025. Soaring debt repayments and a sharp reduction in lending have transformed China’s role in developing country finances from capital provider to debt collector. Mounting pressures from Chinese debts are especially severe for many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries. A retrenchment in Western aid and trade is compounding these challenges while undermining any geopolitical advantage for the West. In 2025, the world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries will make record high debt repayments totalling $22 billion to China. Beijing has transitioned from capital provider to net financial drain on developing country budgets as debt servicing costs on Belt and Road Initiative projects from the 2010s now far outstrip new loan disbursements...

  

Lowy

Building National Preparedness: A Road Map for Australia and What We Should Learn From Finland, May 2025. Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements...

  

ASPI

The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2025-2026, May 2025. Australia faces a perilous strategic environment with multiple threats overlapping and, in some cases, converging. We’re confronted simultaneously by the rise of aggressive authoritarian powers, multiple conflicts around the world, persistent and evolving terrorism, foreign interference and the normalisation of cyberwarfare. Our largest trading partner, China, is increasingly aggressive militarily and has growing control of critical technologies integral to our societies. In Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region, rearmament is underway, including increased prospects of nuclear proliferation. Australia is a part of that rearmament, though others are moving much faster...

  

ASPI

India’s ‘Wait and Watch’ Diplomacy: Redefining Regional Engagement in South Asia, May 2025. India’s ‘Wait and Watch’ approach has reinforced its foreign policy strategy of ‘Neighbourhood First’ and hence allowed it to adjust to the changing political landscapes in South Asia. This issue brief looks at how India’s measured response to political changes in Afghanistan under the Taliban and in the Maldives under President Mohamed Muizzu has boosted India’s regional influence by exercising strategic patience and calibrated diplomacy. India has managed to reposition itself as an indispensable partner to both nations by striking the right balance of economic and humanitarian engagement with security concerns...

  

ISDP

Proxy Wars and Silent Partners: The Pahalgam Attack a Stress Test for India–China Stability, May 2025. The April 2025 Pahalgam terrorist attack marks a significant moment in South Asia’s evolving security matrix. While the India–Pakistan binary continues to dominate discourse, China’s ambiguous posture following India’s Operation Sindoor warrants deeper scrutiny. This issue brief assesses Beijing’s silence, the implications for China-India ties, and China’s alignment with Pakistan’s strategic calculus. Drawing on past crises like Pulwama, Balakot, and Uri, it interrogates China’s selective neutrality, its shielding of Pakistan, and the erosion of its credibility as a regional stabilizer...

  

ISDP

China’s Techno-Military Modernization in Tibet and its Impact on Climate, May 2025. This issue brief examines China’s extensive techno-military modernization in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), with a focus on infrastructure development and its ecological implications. The Chinese government’s investment in TAR’s infrastructure development, a crucial component of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is focused on large-scale dual-use infrastructure, including road networks, highways, airports, and railroads. Despite being presented as developmental, these infrastructure projects significantly expand China’s military mobility and enhance its strategic depth in the region. However, this rapid securitization comes with serious ecological consequences, such as grassland degradation, waterway pollution, and community displacement...

  

ISDP

Tibet’s Climate Crisis: The Japanese Perspective, May 2025. Japan has increasingly advocated for Tibetan human rights, often linking environmental vulnerability to cultural preservation. While Japan maintains a robust environmental diplomacy and has regularly engaged China on broader climate issues, Tokyo’s Tibet policy remains traditionally constrained due to the political sensitivity of Beijing’s sovereignty claims in the region. This issue brief examines Japan’s nuanced approach to the escalating climate issues in Tibet, considering the region’s critical ecological role as the “roof of the world” and source of major Asian rivers. It outlines how extensive Chinese infrastructure development in the region, in conjunction with increasing militarization, has severely impacted Tibet’s fragile environment, threatened the downstream nations, and raised global climate security concerns...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #12: Malaysia Chairs ASEAN at a Strategic Crossroads: Priorities, Opportunities and Challenges. Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, under the theme “Inclusivity and Sustainability”, draws from the Madani concept and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s long-standing vision of an Asian renaissance. It reflects Malaysia’s aspiration to promote a forward-looking, values-based leadership grounded in sustainability, inclusivity and regional solidarity. Malaysia’s chairmanship takes place amid heightened geopolitical volatility, including intensifying major power rivalry, ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, and the deepening political and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #11: A Historical Note on Economic Reforms in Myanmar, 2006 to 2016. This historical note seeks to provide some markers for economists and policymakers interested in Myanmar’s woeful experience over seven decades when it fell from being one of the most prosperous and promising countries in East Asia at the end of World War II to one of the poorest now. The most encouraging period of economic progress after Burma’s independence in 1948 was the decade of quasi-democratic governance under the Thein Sein administration from 2011 to 2016 and the National League for Democracy (NLD) administration (led by Aung San Suu Kyi) from 2016 to 2021. On 1 February 2021, a military coup plunged the country back into another chaotic period of civil strife and economic suffering, with no end in sight...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #10: Disinformation and Election Propaganda: Impact on Voter Perceptions and Behaviours in Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election. This study analyses the impact of social media election campaigning, disinformation and election propaganda on voters’ perceptions and behaviours in Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election. It assesses the influence of social media platforms and chat messaging apps as sources of election-related information on voters and their level of trust in these mediums. The study also assesses how exposed and susceptible voters have been to various disinformation and election propaganda narratives...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #9: Economic Governance of Non-State Authorities in Myanmar: Potentials and Pitfalls. Since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, the reach and influence of non-state authorities have spread considerably, providing them with greater scope to govern economic activity in parts of Myanmar. Taxation is among non-state authorities’ most widespread aspects of economic governance. Numerous groups rely on checkpoints and road tolls, with other common taxes covering natural resource extraction, agricultural production, and business activity. At least one non-state authority collects monthly household taxes, with higher rates for wealthier households...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #8: Striking While the Iron Is Hot: Sarawak and Federal-State Dynamics in Today’s Malaysia. Malaysia’s federal system is asymmetric, as the East Malaysian territories of Sarawak and Sabah have more autonomy and prerogatives than their West Malaysian counterparts. This reflects their incorporation into the Malaysian Federation in 1963 and distinct ethnic and religious composition. Despite this, many East Malaysians do not feel that their position within Malaysia has been beneficial. Due to their natural resource wealth, these states generate a substantial proportion of federal government revenue and yet suffer high rates of poverty and insufficient infrastructure investment...

  

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

May 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Asian Development Outlook, April 2025 (Full Report, Highlights). Weak consumption in the People’s Republic of China will partly offset robust domestic demand in South Asia. Disinflation is expected to continue, driven by lower food and energy prices, along with the lagged effects of previous monetary policy tightening. The region’s high-income technology exporters remain a bright spot, benefiting from strong global demand for electronics. However, rising trade uncertainty and escalating tariffs have created headwinds, weighing on financial markets and investor confidence. The region must navigate these challenges to sustain its economic momentum.

  

ADB

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIV, Issue 1, April 2025 (Full Report). The global economy grew steadily in 2024, underpinned by robust domestic demand in the US and strong export performance in Asia. However, prospects for global GDP growth have diminished amid the trade conflict. Economies that levy duties on imports will likely experience an increase in costs, which will in turn weigh on business and consumer spending. Meanwhile, exporting countries which have been hit by tariffs will experience a negative external demand shock. As a whole, global GDP growth is expected to slow below trend. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s growth outlook has turned more cautious...

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, March 2025. The Singapore economy expanded by 5.0% year-on-year in Q4 2024, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 3.1% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025. The most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 2.5 to 2.9% this year, similar to the previous survey conducted in Dec 2024 (Chart 2). The average probability assigned to this range has risen to 46%, from 42% in the previous survey. The standard deviation of the forecasts has remained broadly the same as the previous survey, although the distribution has become slightly more negatively skewed...

  

MAS

2024 Singapore Corporate Debt Market Development. Global bond issuance volume remained flat at USD 6.6 trillion in 2023, amidst the peaking interest rates environment and an expectation of an economic slowdown. In Asia, issuance volume of Asia (Ex-Japan) G-3 bonds declined by 16.5% YoY to USD 160 billion1, as Asian corporates rein in financing on the back of higher funding costs. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s bond market fared well, with issuance volumes rebounding 59% in 2023 to reach USD 77 billion2, driven by financing needs of global corporates based in Singapore to fund their operations and expansion in Asia. Total outstanding debt arranged by financial institutions in Singapore registered a 10.5% YoY increase to SGD 566 billion, driven by financing needs from MNEs in Singapore...

  

MAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q2, April 2025. Compared to the 2.9% economic growth in the first half of 2024, Hong Kong’s economic growth slowed to 2.5% in the second half of the year. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 1.6% in 25Q1, reflecting the impact of further escalation of China-US trade uncertainties. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.2% during 25Q1 and 25Q2. US tariffs on multiple countries hinder global economic growth, presenting major challenges to Hong Kong's external demand. Hong Kong's economic growth will mainly be driven by domestic demand in 2025...

  

HKU

South Korea and Australia in Space: Towards a Strategic Partnership, April 2025. Space cooperation between Australian and South Korea remains stuck in its infancy and, to some extent, is treated as an end in itself. This report argues that the time is ripe for both Australia and South Korea to embark on joint projects and initiatives that would deliver tangible and practical outcomes for both countries. For South Korea and Australia, space cooperation and space development serve as key pillars of the bilateral relationship. The two nations elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2021, incorporating space development into core areas of cooperation in the fields of economics, innovation and technology...

  

ASPI

National Food Security Preparedness Green Paper, April 2025. Australia’s agriculture sector and food system produce enough food to feed more than 70 million people worldwide. The system is one of the world’s least subsidised food systems. It has prospered under a global rules-based system influenced by Western liberal values, but it now faces chronic challenges due to rising geopolitical tensions, geo-economic transitions, climate change, deteriorating water security and rapid technological advances. The world is changing so rapidly that the assumptions, policy approaches and economic frameworks that have traditionally supported Australia’s food security are no longer fit for purpose...

  

ASPI

Indonesia in 2035: Climate Risks to Security in the Indo-Pacific, March 2025. The Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the region, will strain Indonesia’s economic and national-security interests. This report presents the findings of a narrative-driven scenario to stress-test Indonesia’s climate risks emerging by 2035. Its objective is to identify opportunities for Indonesia and its economic and strategic partners to prepare for and mitigate the risks...

  

ASPI

Trapped in Debt: China’s Role in Laos’ Economic Crisis, April 2025. This Analysis examines the drivers of the Lao debt crisis and what will be required to get out of it, with a focus on China’s role. Laos’ debt crisis has received little international attention and scrutiny, reflecting the country’s opacity and the minor exposure of international bond investors. Yet China’s outsized role makes the Lao crisis a crucial case study in an era when China has become the world’s largest bilateral creditor to developing countries. What is clear is that China lent on a huge scale to a country with weak institutions and limited ability to productively absorb the investment. This has resulted in massive overcapacity in the Lao energy sector, unsustainable financial losses, and finally the takeover of its energy grid by a Chinese state firm...

  

Lowy

Emerging Leaders, Enduring Bonds: Australia–Papua New Guinea Relations, March 2025. This report is based on insights from the 2024 Australia–PNG Network Emerging Leaders Dialogue, held in Canberra, 7–11 October 2024. The Dialogue brought together a group of young leaders to explore the opportunities and challenges facing PNG youth in education, employment, and civic engagement. It provides actionable recommendations to deepen collaboration between the two countries. The recommendations are those of the young leaders. The authors of this report were guided by their thinking. By design, the Dialogue did not weigh the financial or policy trade-offs involved in implementing these recommendations...

  

Lowy

(UN)Ambiguous Meaning? Cross-Strait Narratives of UN Resolution 2758, April 2025. This Focus Asia paper examines China’s and Taiwan’s narratives about UN Resolution 2758 in the context of current cross-strait relations and the global debate surrounding Taiwan’s UN participation. The paper expounds on what UN Resolution 2758 is and in what historical context it was voted on in the 1971 UN General Assembly. It analyzes the international debate that led up to the resolution’s adoption and argues that it had a different meaning to the UN’s voting member-states. The paper also examines how the PRC’s and Taiwan’s narratives of UN Resolution 2758 has evolved over time. For the PRC, the resolution affirmed its “one China principle” claiming that Taiwan is part of China. Its use has not so much evolved but instead intensified...

  

ISDP

Relational Dynamics and Italy’s Strategic Integration into the Indo-Pacific, April 2025. The Indo-Pacific region is currently the primary arena in which global geopolitics is being played out. Italy has taken a more flexible approach, cultivating links and engaging in strategic activities without having an official strategy in place, despite the fact that several other governments have formed formal plans for the Indo-Pacific region. Initially, Italy’s involvement in the Belt and Road Initiative was focused on establishing business linkages, particularly with China. In recent times, however, Rome has been increasing its involvement in multilateral cooperation, maritime security, and regional stability...

  

ISDP

China’s Rapacity for Mining in Tibet: An Indian Perspective, April 2025. China’s rapacity for mining in Tibet has unfortunately become a permanent feature of its occupation. There are several reports on the environmental degradation caused by China’s activities in Tibet. What, however, is not explored is how and why China mines what it mines the most in Tibet. In order to understand the all-pervasive and permanent nature of China’s rapacity for mining in Tibet, it is pertinent to analyze the phases in which Chinese mining in Tibet has become as extensive as it is today. It is also pertinent to understand the problems it causes to downstream countries, in order to create more awareness, to push back against China’s unchallenged mining in Tibet...

  

ISDP

Challenges Faced by TSMC and Its Suppliers in Expanding to Europe, April 2025. The semiconductor shortage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the European Chips Act (ECA). The ECA was first proposed in February 2022 aiming to double the European Union’s (EU) global market share in semiconductor manufacturing to 20 percent by 2030.* The ECA opens a door for Taiwanese companies to reposition their geopolitical strategy. In August 2024, the first Taiwan-invested semiconductor fabrication plant (fab) broke ground in Dresden, Germany. It will specialize in producing mature chips for automation and electrification in the automotive and industrial sectors...

  

ISDP

Going for Gold on the Tibetan Frontier, April 2025. In 2025, China is hungrier than ever for gold, as an abiding holder of accumulated wealth, in a time when even the biggest Chinese real estate builders, tech entrepreneurs, exam coaching, and other industries can go broke in a blink. The focus is on the copper, and on the hydro dams that power its extraction from remote Tibetan mountain sides, and the copper cables that transmit electricity from Tibetan rivers to far distant Chinese industrial hubs. Yet, in Tibet, these deposits are consistently polymetallic, usually bearing not only copper but also extractable and profitable molybdenum, silver, and gold. The quantum of gold may be small, but not its value.

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #7: Localization of the United States–China Rivalry: Cases from the Philippines. The intensified rivalry between the United States and China has put small states like the Philippines in a precarious position, given its relative importance in the regional geo-strategy of both big powers. Since foreign and security policymaking tend to be formulated in a top-down manner, existing analyses have not paid sufficient attention to what extent this big-power competition has affected local political dynamics and local governance. The Philippine foreign policy pendulum has swung since 2016 between adopting a more cordial relationship with either the US or China. This opened opportunities for each big power to engage local governments in political, security, economic, and socio-cultural activities that potentially hold implications for national security...

  

ISEAS

Tourism and Amenities in Malaysia, March 2025. The tourism industry in Malaysia was adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Domestic tourism has recovered faster that in-bound tourism. The empirical analysis in this study indicates that air connectivity is a key amenity for in-bound tourism. Shopping-related amenities may be less important for in-bound tourism due to the type of tourist attractions that appeal to in-bound tourists. There is also evidence that Malaysia is currently regarded as a low cost or cheap holiday destination. It attracts tourists from relatively lower income and with weaker national currency. These findings support key elements of the current government policies for the industry.

  

ISEAS

Demographic Change and Services: The Case of Malaysia, March 2025. Malaysia is at the threshold of transitioning into an aging society. This study undertakes an empirical analysis of demographic changes in Malaysia and how this has brought about changes in the demand for services in the country. Evidence from this study suggests that the demand for services such as information and communications is relatively robust against demographic change but will evolve as higher income increases the demand for quality services. The education services will be transformed with the shrinking of the share of the younger population...

  

ISEAS

AI-Enabled Organisational Listening – Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for a More Relational Approach to Government Communication, March 2025. This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) can enhance government communication, with a focus on “organisational listening” (Macnamara, 2018, p.122) — the government's ability to listen and respond to citizens, and engage them in co-creating policies and public services. The paper analyses both opportunities and risks, drawing insights from global examples. Government communication has evolved from a one-way, transactional approach to a more relational model that emphasises two-way dialogue. This shift reflects both proactive government initiatives and external pressures...

  

IPS

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Cybersecurity in Brunei: Building Resilience against Threats, March 2025. Brunei Darussalam, despite its smaller digital ecosystem, faces growing cybersecurity challenges. Safeguarding national security, economic interests, and citizens' data requires collaborative efforts between the government and private sector. This article explores Brunei’s cybersecurity landscape, focusing on key challenges, institutional responses, legislative measures, and international collaborations...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Thailand: Balancing Progress, Geopolitical Influences, and the Need for Enhanced Readiness, March 2025. Thailand has made notable progress in cybersecurity, supported by a strong regulatory framework. However, rapid digital transformation, increased adoption of cloud computing, the Internet of Things, digital payments, and a shortage of skilled cybersecurity professionals continue to pose challenges. Thailand’s cybersecurity landscape is shaped by geopolitical rivalries, balancing cooperation between major powers...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Malaysia: Bridging Digital Ambitions with Security Efforts, March 2025. Malaysia’s cybersecurity approach began with information technology (IT) security for digitization goals in the late 1990s with the Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) to its first National Cybersecurity policy in 2008 focused on national security approaches to protect critical infrastructure and safeguard the nation from information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled threats such as extremism in the first decade of the 2000s...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in the Philippines: Advancing a Cyber Defense Posture, March 2025. The Philippines, like many small countries, is often left to defend its own digital ecosystems. The Philippines has experienced major cyberattacks targeting government agencies, public schools, and even the private sector. The country’s reactive and technology-centric approach to cybersecurity is often a product of fragmented policies, inadequate resources, and traditional bureaucratic practices. To address these challenges, it must adopt a cyber defense posture to enhance its cybersecurity to ensure a safer environment to pursue its national interests...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Vietnam: Challenges and Opportunities in an Era of Digital Transformation, March 2025. Vietnam has experienced remarkable digital transformation over the past two decades with Internet penetration surging from zero percent in 2000 to 78 percent in 2023. This rapid digital growth, however, has brought increasing cybersecurity challenges. This article examines the current state of Vietnam's cybersecurity landscape, identifies key challenges, and explores opportunities for international cooperation to strengthen the nation's cyber resilience...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity for ASEAN: Many Opportunities and Challenges for Cyber Cooperation, March 2025. As cyberspace becomes another platform for great power competition between China and the United States, ASEAN and its members must manage their relations with these powers without sacrificing their socio-economic and political interests. While Southeast Asia has yet to experience the brunt of disruptive events characterizing cyber conflict in recent years, the strategic significance of cyberspace continues to be an acknowledged reality for the region...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Singapore: Strengthening Resilience Amid Evolving Cyber Threats, March 2025. Singapore is rapidly transforming into a leading Smart Nation, harnessing cutting-edge technology to fuel innovation, foster economic growth, and “build better, meaningful, and fulfilled lives for [the Singapore] people.” However, as digital advancements become more deeply integrated into daily life, they also open the door to more cyber threats, endangering Singapore’s Smart Nation agenda...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Myanmar: Concern across the Landscape, March 2025. Myanmar’s cybersecurity landscape after the 2021 coup presents more cause for concern than complacency. Since 2021, the junta has heavily regulated digital platforms, blocked access to social media, and limited internet access. It further introduced a repressive cybersecurity law amidst Myanmar’s rising visibility as a location for cyber-scam operations. The 2025 Cybersecurity Law’s provisions against virtual private network (VPN) usage and penalties for sharing information deemed “inappropriate” for the country’s security situation mean that the junta will (and does) not hesitate to violate personal data privacy and internet freedom...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Cambodia: New Laws but a Range of Challenges Remain, March 2025. Cambodia’s digital transformation journey is exhibited by the introduction of key policies and strategies. The Cambodia Digital Government Policy 2022-2035 prioritizes safety and sustainability in digital security, emphasizing the need for robust cybersecurity measures to protect national digital infrastructure. The Cambodia Digital Economy and Society Policy Framework 2021-2035 recognizes cybersecurity as crucial for building trust in the digital sphere...

  

EWC

Cybersecurity in Indonesia: More Capacity Needed to Leverage Digital Technology, March 2025. Indonesia is one of the most digitally connected countries, with 77 percent of its population (approximately 212 million people) actively online, contributing an estimated US$130 billion to the national economy by 2025. Since the early 2010s, a persistent national objective has been to leverage digital technology to drive economic growth, enhance public services, and address socioeconomic challenges...

  

EWC

Creative and Innovative Approaches to Engaging With Communities in Water Security in the Solomon Islands, March 2025. Lack of access to clean, drinkable water is an increasingly urgent issue in the Pacific. Only 55 percent of Pacific Islanders have access to basic drinking water. The Solomon Islands currently has one of the lowest levels of access to clean drinking water among Pacific Island countries. Recent data shows that only 91.2 percent of urban and 71.3 percent of rural households in the Solomon Islands have access to clean water. This article presents the current status of water catchment management in the Solomon Islands and makes a case for more coordinated catchment governance and for different modes of community engagement at the catchment level.

  

EWC

Hedging Bets: Southeast Asia’s Approach to China’s Aid, March 2025. China’s official development finance (ODF) to Southeast Asia has declined markedly since 2015. Once the primary development partner for half the region in terms of annual ODF disbursements, Beijing now holds that position only in Malaysia and Laos. While legacy projects will ensure that China remains a significant development partner — potentially providing the region an additional $32 billion in financing — newer Chinese commitments are being provided on a much smaller scale, and with a different focus...

  

Lowy

The Future of Indonesia’s Green Industrial Policy, March 2025. Indonesia’s green industrial policy has focused on increasing the value of raw critical minerals through onshore processing and building a domestic electric vehicle (EV) industry. It appears to have worked, in a limited sense. The country now produces much of the world’s mined and refined nickel and has become a major destination for global EV supply chains. However, this success has drawbacks. Growth in the nickel industry has not translated into significant local job creation, poverty reduction, or government revenues, while serious environmental degradation, labour violations, and poor governance persist...

  

Lowy

British Public Opinion on Foreign Policy: President Trump, Ukraine, China, Defence Spending and AUKUS, March 2025. Britons support an open and engaged foreign policy role for the United Kingdom. In light of the re-election of President Donald Trump, 40% believe Britain should continue to maintain its current active level of engagement in world affairs, and 23% believe it should play a larger role. Just 16% of Britons support a less active United Kingdom on the world stage. When asked what Britain’s response should be if the United States withdraws its financial and military support from Ukraine, 57% of Britons would endorse the UK either maintaining (35%) or increasing (22%) its contributions to Ukraine. One-fifth would prefer that the UK reduces its contributions to Ukraine...

  

ASPI

“Strategic Autonomy, Anyone?” Charting Europe’s Shifting Security Debates and 2024-2029 Priorities, March 2025. Policymakers are preparing for the 2024-2029 EU legislative period in a dramatically changing geopolitical landscape. With escalating wars and humanitarian crises on its borders, shifting trade dynamics, deindustrialization threats, and a more confrontational U.S. administration, the EU faces pressing challenges that raise fundamental questions about its identity and future. In this context, the debate on Strategic Autonomy is resurfacing as a key issue, with a focus on how EU member-states can unite to address these challenges...

  

ISDP

COP30: Time for Action on the Himalayan Region, March 2025. The Himalayas have faced unprecedented ecological, weather-related, and geotectonic disasters, exacerbated by human activity, disrupting ecosystems and local livelihoods. Despite these pressing issues, international climate discussions, particularly at COP29, largely marginalized the Himalayan crisis, including Tibet’s environmental degradation. Adding to this is China’s development policies that have particularly led to the current crisis situation. Beijing has pursued large-scale infrastructure projects, mining, and water diversion schemes, which threaten both the region’s ecology and downstream countries...

  

ISDP

India-Nordic Budding Dynamics: Sweden, a Vital Gateway? March 2025. The India-Nordic summits in 2018 and 2022 had the clearly outlined goal of the expanding strategic coordination between India and the Nordics. The spike in trade reflects a healthy economic engagement as well as immense potential for the future both in terms of mutual growth and regional prosperity. These summits focused not only on trade and investment, but also explored the potential for expanding innovation-oriented cooperation in areas such as clean/green technologies, maritime security, digitalization, global health, infrastructure, and climate action, apart from reiterating the commitment to a rules-based democratic order...

  

ISDP

India-Sweden Ties: Forging a Cohesive Partnership, March 2025. From areas like human rights and political differences to climate and sustainability, both countries often differ on certain points, sometimes causing friction in their bilateral relations. Most prominently, India and Sweden differ notably in their approach to Russia. While New Delhi sees Russia as a historical ally and key supplier of defense equipment, Sweden (and the EU at large) views Russia as an imminent security threat. These distinct approaches are shaped not only by their historical lenses, but also by their different strategic priorities and geopolitical alignments. Both countries have sought to manage these differences pragmatically while continuing to focus on other areas of cooperation...

  

ISDP

The Future of Korean Research from a Nordic Perspective, March 2025. The Nordic countries are long-standing partners to South Korea, engaging in dialogue and collaborating on regional and global concerns since 1959. Despite a long history of state-level cooperation, the Nordic public’s knowledge of Korean affairs remains comparatively low when compared to other regional powers in East Asia, particularly China and Japan. However, during the last decade, there has been a noticeable increase in societal interest in South Korea throughout the Nordic region...

  

ISDP

Sweden and China: The Use of History and Mismatched Expectations, March 2025. Sweden was not the first country in the West that recognized the People’s Republic of China, but it became the first in the West to establish formal diplomatic relations in 1950 because China picked it ahead of others to do so. This history has since been mutually emphasized on both sides, for different reasons. This paper examines the history of how Sweden established diplomatic relations with the PRC, outlining the historical context in which diplomatic relations were established and what it meant for the two countries at the time. The paper examines how the history of diplomatic relations has been used by the two countries and in which two country-specific contexts this use can be understood...

  

ISDP

PRC Mining in Tibet – a European Perspective, March 2025. Given the enormous geostrategic and environmental importance of the Tibetan Plateau, what the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does with Tibet’s waters and its minerals does not concern the PRC only. It concerns the entire Himalayan region and their people, their security, and ecological interests. Beyond the region, China’s role in the global race for critical raw materials (CRM) cannot be overstated. It is already leading in the race and needs Tibet’s rich resources to keep its lead. Going forward, Beijing is likely to expand mining activities on the Plateau, displacing and disempowering Tibetans, with far-reaching regional and global implications...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #6: Current Perspectives on Geopolitics among Southeast Asian Youths. Youths are becoming an increasingly significant political force in Southeast Asian countries. As a collective, young Southeast Asians aged 18–35 have the potential to exert greater sway over their respective national foreign policymaking landscapes. They will also occupy key positions in their respective countries and societies in the future, thus understanding young Southeast Asian opinion leaders’ views on geopolitics can provide valuable insight into the future of foreign policymaking in the region...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #5: Higher Education in Malaysia: A History Plagued by Fluctuations. Higher education has been a coveted policy domain in Malaysia. Political dynamics and shifting emphasis in policy not only shape the higher education system but hold deep implications for the institutional and educational life of universities. The first four decades after independence saw the government tightening its control over universities and corporatizing and liberalizing the higher education sector before elevating the importance of higher education by establishing the Ministry of Higher Education in 2004...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #4: Revolutionary Regimes: Emerging Forms of Governance in Post-Coup Myanmar. A variety of governance forms have emerged in Myanmar’s post-coup landscape, bringing together established Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) with dynamic new actors from a broad spectrum of elected lawmakers, youth, women and civil society in Myanmar’s “Spring Revolution” against the 2021 coup and military rule. Experiments with new forms of governance have had varying degrees of success, with wide swathes of territory across the country coming under the control of groups opposed to the State Administration Council (SAC)...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #3: Indonesia’s Political Volunteer Organizations: Tools of Mobilization and of Patronage. The concept of political volunteerism in Indonesia differs markedly from that in established democracies. In Indonesia, it is less about civic engagement or strengthening democracy and more about serving as a tool for candidates to mobilize voters and win elections. The relationship between candidates and their volunteers is reciprocal but often imbalanced, fostering opportunities for patronage within electoral politics...

  

ISEAS

APEC Regional Trends Analysis, March 2025. The APEC region faces growing economic challenges, with slowing growth and rising fiscal pressures, aggravated by ageing populations. While near-term prospects remain stable, risks affecting the medium-term outlook are intensifying due to persistent trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and structural constraints. Strengthening resilience requires bold policy action—advancing structural reforms to boost productivity and innovation while maintaining sound fiscal and monetary policies to ensure economic stability. Deepening regional cooperation remains essential to mitigate trade vulnerabilities and navigate global uncertainties. By taking coordinated and decisive action, APEC economies can steer the region towards brighter growth prospects and build a more sustainable, resilient future for all.

  

APEC
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ADB
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ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 42, No. 1, March 2025 (Full Report). The opening article underscores the importance of knowledge sharing among city governments. Other articles discuss how urban green spaces can reduce flooding and the burning of waste, how growing mungbeans can reduce reliance on chemical fertilizers, and how internet access can increase farmers’ incomes. Authors also examine trade costs in Central Asia and participation in global value chains.

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