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April, 2017 Current Topics

 

Source

 

 

 

 

The Investment Chapter and ISDS in the TPP: Lessons from Southeast Asia, April 2017. The investment chapter and investor-state dispute settlement provisions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership attracted significant media and public attention. This paper shows that ISDS-backed investment treaty commitments, aimed to liberalising and protecting FDI, are already widespread across Southeast Asian countries. However, these countries have been subjected to comparatively few ISDS claims and (very recently) two adverse treaty-based arbitration awards. Meanwhile, investors from Malaysia and Singapore have initiated claims. This backdrop partly explains not only why those two states and the other existing TPP signatories (Vietnam and Brunei) were willing to agree to ISDS-backed commitments in that FTA. It also makes it quite likely that ISDS provisions are not likely to become deal breakers for countries such as Thailand, the Philippines and even Indonesia in future trade agreements...

 

ISEAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, March 2017. The Singapore economy expanded by 2.9% in Q4 2016, which was higher than the median forecast of 0.8% for the quarter reported in the last survey. For 2016 as a whole, the economy recorded GDP growth of 2.0%, coming in above the respondents’ median forecast of 1.4%. The economy is forecast to expand by 2.3% in 2017. In the latest survey, the forecasters expect growth to be around 2.3% in 2017, up from the previous forecast of 1.5%...

 

MAS

Jati, Local Public Goods and Village Governance: Private Actions and Public Outcomes, Published 2017. This paper purports to understand whether voting along narrow parochial lines in
socially and ethnically fragmented societies has measurable gains. Using data from rural India, we establish that identity based voting, driven by membership in social and informal networks, will lead to enhanced participation in welfare programs, which in turn leads to increased consumption growth...

 

ASARC

Party Problems and Factionalism in Soviet Uzbekistan: Evidence from the Communist Party Archives, Published 2017. This paper examines party problems and factionalism in Soviet Uzbekistan, covering the period from the creation of the republic in 1924-1925 to independence in 1991. More specifically, it focuses on the social basis of politics, the existence of place-based elite networks, faultlines of conflict within the Uzbek elite, the prevalence of national and/or regional solidarities, and centralization and decentralization of appointment power. The prevailing theory on the subject is that politics in Soviet Uzbekistan was defined by indigenous “clans” or regional “solidarity networks”, resulting from traditionally strong family bonds and a clan-based social structure...

 

ISDP

Women, Peace and Security: the Way Forward, March 2017. The articles in this Strategic Insights paper, originally published on the ASPI Strategist website throughout March 2017, include analysis about what women, peace and security (WPS) means for Australia’s defence and national security. While ASPI has been fortunate to have some great analyses from contributors on WPS on The Strategist in the past, there’s always scope for more. With Australia’s National Action Plan on WPS up for review ahead of 2019, this year’s International Women’s Day provided an opportune time to build on those contributions and examine the way forward. Within the context of defence, it’s evident that strengthening women’s participation in the security sector and integrating gender perspectives contributes to capability and operational effectiveness. Yet it’s still an issue plagued with misconceptions and that needs to be better understood...

 

ASPI

Tiptoeing Around the Nine-Dash Line: Southeast Asia After Asean, February 2017. Southeast Asia is one of the most diverse regions on the planet, and its geopolitical importance is on the rise. While individual states in this part of the world have been strategically significant in the past, Southeast Asia now finds itself thrust into the limelight of international affairs as a result of the competition currently occurring between the US and China. Those developments have placed greater strategic weight and heightened attendant stresses on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the principal group representing the 10 countries in the region. Even as ASEAN’s strategic pertinence steadily increases, the member states of the grouping face a dilemma over collective action that challenges not only perceptions of ASEAN’s efficacy but also the overall security of Southeast Asia. How they and other interested actors—including the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the US, Australia and Japan—choose to act now will shape the region for decades to come...

 

ASPI

Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative, March 2017. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (also known as One Belt, One Road (OBOR)) is one of President Xi’s most ambitious foreign and economic policies. It aims to strengthen Beijing’s economic leadership through a vast program of infrastructure building throughout China’s neighbouring regions. Many foreign policy analysts view this initiative largely through a geopolitical lens, seeing it as Beijing’s attempt to gain political leverage over its neighbours. There is no doubt that is part of Beijing’s strategic calculation. However, this Analysis argues that some of the key drivers behind OBOR are largely motivated by China’s pressing economic concerns. One of the overriding objectives of OBOR is to address China’s deepening regional disparity as the country’s economy modernises...

 

Lowy

The Two Levels of Russia's South China Sea Policies, March 2016. Alexander Korolev, Research Fellow at the Center on Asia and Globalization at the National University of Singapore, explains that “For Russia, the South China Sea issue is where two levels of its policies – systemic anti-hegemonic balancing and non-systemic regional hedging – intersect.”

 

EWC

Saudi King Salman's Visit to Indonesia: Bound by Ties of Islam, March 2017. Endy Bayuni, Editor-In-Chief at The Jakarta Post, asks “If it has taken this long for a Saudi leader to visit Indonesia, what is the true state of relations between the two countries?”

 

EWC

Japan's Security Policy Reform: Institutional Changes Facilitating a Larger Role in Regional Security, March 2017. Marta Ross, recent Council on Foreign Relations Hitachi International Affairs Fellow, explains that “These reforms are fundamentally reshaping how Japan communicates, thinks about, and implements national security policy by establishing a new institutional culture.”

 

EWC

Australian Defense Policy in the Trump Era, February 2017. Andrew Davies and Mark Thomson, Director of the Defence and Strategy Program, and Senior Analyst of Defence Economics, respectively, at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), explain that “It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration has what is needed to ‘underpin stability’ in the Pacific… Australia looks to the United States for leadership, but will not follow it blindly down the rabbit hole.”

 

EWC

Asia Bond Monitor, March 2017. Yields in advanced economies rose while yields fell in most emerging East Asian bond markets due to heterogeneous economic fundamentals and changes in risk appetite. Emerging East Asia has shown signs of improving economic growth and rising inflation and a decline in LCY government bond yields was seen in most markets given improving investor confidence. The improved outlook could also strengthen emerging East Asia’s financial markets against the possible reversal of capital flows in response to the Federal Reserve’s expected monetary policy normalization. The notable exception to the regional trend of declining yields was the People’s Republic of China, where 2-year and 10-year yields rose between 31 December and 15 February as the People’s Bank of China engaged in tightening measures to protect against asset and credit risks...

 

ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 34, No. 1, 2017 (Full Report):
Topics discussed in this issue of the Asian Development Review include growth convergence paths in Asia and the middle-income trap, impacts of minimum wage on employment and earnings for men and women in India, working conditions in developing economies, total factor productivity growth in manufacturing and services, the effect of undervaluation on economic growth in the presence of borrowing constraints, the movement of migrants between Southeast Asian economies, and determinants of household energy choices in Timor-Leste.

  ADB

Macroprudential Policy Frameworks in Developing Asian Economies, March 2017. This paper presents a general macroprudential policy framework that highlights important aspects for conducting policy. It also provides an overview of how some Asian economies, New Zealand, and the euro area implement their macroprudential policies. It reviews existing macroprudential policy frameworks of five high-growth developing economies—Cambodia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Viet Nam—identifying improvements and continuing challenges for their financial systems, which will likely grow more complex. Identifying and addressing key issues will help improve their existing macroprudential policy frameworks.

 

ADB

Leverage and Capital Structure Determinants of Chinese Listed Companies, January 2017. This paper assesses the financial fragility of the Chinese economy by looking at risk factors in the corporate nonfinancial sector. Total debt in the People’s Republic of China has increased significantly in recent years, mostly on account of nonfinancial corporate debt. Earning and the financial performance of corporate firms have weakened, and so has the asset quality of the financial sector. In this paper, quantile regressions are applied to a rich dataset of Chinese listed companies contained in Standard & Poor’s IQ Capital database...

 

ADB

Green Growth Opportunities for Asia, January 2017. his paper assesses the low-carbon economy in Asia: how large it is today and how well it will fare in the future. Using patent and trade data, it analyzes the potential of Asian economies to capture value from the design and export of low-carbon technologies, acknowledging that these are only two dimensions of a multidimensional low-carbon economy. It conducts country-level analysis to identify which technologies different countries can specialize in and potentially scale up...

 

ADB

Agricultural Trade and Structural Change: The Case of Paraguay, March 2017. International trade is crucial to the employment structure in Paraguay. We study the effect of agricultural trade on structural change. For this purpose, we calibrate a three-sector general equilibrium model to quantify the role of trade in explaining the pattern of structural change in Paraguay. Paraguay experienced a significant rise in net agricultural exports as a percentage of aggregate output during the period 1962–2012...

 

ADB

Trade and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15: Promoting “Life on Land” through Mandatory and Voluntary Approaches, March 2017. Trade can promote sustainable wildlife trade. Sustainable Development Goal 15 deals with “Life on Land.” Its nine targets and three means of implementation cover a vast array of environmentally sensitive issues related to land-based renewable natural resources. We explore the channels through which trade can address them. Approaches are categorized as mandatory or voluntary...

 

ADB

Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations, March 2017. Negative interest rates appear to have little effect on exchange rates. We examine exchange rate behavior during the recent period with negative nominal interest rates. We use a daily panel of data on 61 currencies from January 2010 through May 2016, during which five economies—Denmark, the European Economic and Monetary Union, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland—experienced negative nominal interest rates...

 

ADB

Economic Influences on Child Growth Status, from the Children’s Healthy Living Program in the US-Affiliated Pacific Region, March 2017. The US-affiliated Pacific region needs policies that promote an active lifestyle and healthy food environment. Mean obesity level of the 2–8-year-old children in the region was 14.4%, 14.1% were overweight, 2.7% were underweight, 1.4% were stunted, and 6.8% were stunted at birth. Acanthosis nigricans prevalence was 5%, an indicator of pre-diabetes...

 

ADB

Trade and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): How Can Trade in Education Services Contribute to the SDGs? March 2017. International trade agreements can help promote the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of ensuring inclusive and quality education. While trade can greatly contribute to providing more educational opportunities in the development world, its potential has not been fully exploited so far. We examine how international trade can help increase supply of and investment in higher education, thereby enhancing access and quality in support of the SDGs...

 

ADB

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Income Inequality and Income Distribution in Asian Countries, March 2017. Initial increases in gross domestic product redistribute income from the poor to the rich, but long term increases redistribute income from the rich to the poor. We examine the macroeconomic determinants of income inequality using dynamic panel data analysis based on the generalized method of moments over 1990–2013 across 33 Asian countries. In addition to the macroeconomic factors, we incorporate a series of political economic and demographic factors to provide more realistic estimates...

 

ADB

Salvaging the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Building Blocks for Regional and Multilateral Trade Opening? March 2017. United States (US) withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a setback for multilateral trade opening in the 21st century, but the TPP could still be useful for negotiating a new trade agenda. High hopes that the TPP would open up trade across the Pacific were dashed by the decision of the new US Government under President Trump to withdraw from the agreement in January 2017...

 

ADB

Financial Deepening and Innovation Efficiency: The Role of Political Institutions, March 2017. Financial deepening promotes innovation efficiency only when a country’s political institutions are sufficiently democratic. We investigate the effects of financial deepening on innovation efficiency for various democratic levels of political institutions using panel data from 69 countries spanning 1970–2010. Banking market deepening is associated with increased innovation efficiency only when political institutions are sufficiently democratic...

 

ADB

Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies, March 2017. Greater integration and dependence on exports made Asia more vulnerable to external shocks. Commodity prices have become volatile over the past 2 decades, and their recent sharp decline has decreased the consumer price index inflation rates for most economies. While many Asian economies have benefited from low international oil and food prices, commodity exporters have suffered...

 

ADB

External Debt Sustainability and Vulnerabilities: Evidence from a Panel of 24 Asian Countries and Prospective Analysis, March 2017. External debt in many Asian countries has been sustainable. We assess the external debt sustainability in a panel of 24 emerging and developing Asian countries divided into four sub-panels, namely the regions of Southeast Asia, Southwest Asia, Central Asia, and the Pacific over the period 1993–2014...

 

ADB

Decreased Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan’s Aging Society, March 2017. As retirees make up more and more of the population, fiscal and monetary policies become less effective. We study how an aging population affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households, workers, and retirees...

 

ADB

The Transmission of Interest Rates Shocks to Asia – Are Effects Different Below the Zero Lower Bound? March 2017. Under positive eurozone interest rates, monetary policy shocks trigger positive spillovers to industry, and house and stock prices in Asia. We use a non-linear factor-augmented vector-autoregressive model to evaluate international effects of an unexpected decrease in euro area policy rates. Given the current environment of ultra low or negative interest rates,..

 

ADB

Inclusive Growth: Decomposition, Incidence, and Policies—Lessons for Asia, March 2017. Strong growth in agriculture is critical to making growth more inclusive. We examine dynamic measures of growth inclusiveness derived from growth incidence curves. These curves help identify the extent to which each decile of households benefits from growth. We discuss the main features of growth incidence curves, their design, computation, data requirements, and interpretation...

 

ADB

Different Faces of Inequality across Asia: Decomposition of Income Gaps across Demographic Groups, March 2017. Education, geographic location, and household composition are important drivers of economic inequality. Substantial evidence exists that economic inequality in Asia has been growing, but the dimensions of this inequality and its growth are far less clear. We evaluate inequality in household incomes per capita across various demographic groups in income surveys from six middle- and high-income countries across Asia: the People’s Republic of China (PRC) (2002); India (2004); Japan (2008); Republic of Korea (2006); the Russian Federation (2004, 2007, and 2010); and Taipei,China (2005, 2007, 2010)...

 

ADB

Structure Change and Urban Inequality in the People’s Republic of China, March 2017. Developments in the service industry helped decrease urban inequality in the People's Republic of China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is thought to be one of the most unequal economies in the world, but very few studies ever touched on the determinants and the evolution of its urban inequality...

 

ADB

Are Global Shocks Leading Indicators of A Currency Crisis in Viet Nam? March 2017. Global financial shocks and domestic credit growth rate are leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam. We aim to identify leading indicators of a currency crisis in Viet Nam based on an early warning system for the period 1996–February 2016...

 

ADB

Corporate Pension Plans and Investment Choices: Bargaining or Conforming? March 2017. Defined-benefit pension plans affect firms’ decisions on capital expenditure and choice of investment industries and locations. We investigate the impacts of defined-benefit (DB) pension plans on the corporate investment choices between diversifying and non-diversifying investments...

 

ADB

Latest APEC publications:

 

 

APEC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labour Provisions in Trade Agreements with Developing Economies: The Case of TPPA and ASEAN Member Countries, March 2017. Labour provisions have been increasingly included in bilateral and regional trade arrangements. One recent example was the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), signed by twelve countries in 2016 but abandoned by the US in early 2017. Even though the ratification of the TPPA remains uncertain, it has set a precedent in trade policy. This is likely to influence the formulation of trade agreements involving ASEAN countries in the future. This paper examines the implications of the TPPA labour chapter in the context of ASEAN countries that have participated in the agreement. It discusses the extent these countries need to undertake domestic reforms in terms of labour rights and standards.

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2017 #2: Investigating the Popularity of Surabaya’s Mayor Tri Rismaharini. Indonesia’s decentralization and direct local elections have produced several credible popular local leaders. One of them is Surabaya’s mayor, Tri Rismaharini (Risma), who gained much attention for her impressive work ethics and her commitment in improving the city. Together with new vice mayor Whisnu Sakti Buana, she was successfully re-elected for the second term in 2015. Examination on the perception and support for her policies on cleanliness, the closure of Dolly (Surabaya’s main red light district) and the management of education reveals that Risma is perceived as a capable leader...

 

ISEAS

Value Chain Analysis of the Wood Processing Industry in the Philippines, February 2017. Wood processing is an important downstream activity of the Philippine forestry sector because it adds economic value to logs, diversifies the products that can be produced from it, and increases the incomes and employment of involved communities. Despite its many economic contributions, however, the wood processing industry has been on the decline for many years now...

 

PIDS

Strengthening Social Enterprises for Inclusive Growth: Philippines, January 2017. Social enterprises have been emerging globally as alternative organizations to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth. Success stories of social enterprises have shown that multiple bottom lines can be achieved; that firms can be vehicles for profit and other moral imperatives. In the Philippines, a resurgence of social enterprises has also been observed. However, the current policy environment in the country is yet unresponsive to the growth of social enterprises...

 

PIDS

Evaluation of the Registry Service for Basic Sectors in Agriculture, January 2017. There are many and varied government programs that target the agriculture and fisheries sector, especially the poor. For more efficient and streamlined program targeting, the Aquino administration has initiated the creation of the Registry Service for Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA), a list of farmers, farm workers, and fisherfolk in the 75 provinces of the country excluding the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and the National Capital Region...

 

PIDS

Agricultural Insurance Program: Lessons from Different Country Experiences, January 2017. While agricultural insurance has long been considered a risk management tool for farmers in both developing and developed economies, policy directions toward sustainability vary across countries. Reviewing the literature provides a comprehensive view of relevant issues, such as objectives of the program, credit access by farmers, program costs, and premium subsidies provided by the national and local governments...

 

PIDS

Opportunities for Strengthening Agriculture Insurance Programs: Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation and LGU Partnerships, January 2017. Providing agricultural insurance to farmers and fisherfolk in the Philippines has been implemented for nearly three decades. While it is agreed that agricultural insurance is crucial in assisting farmers, fisherfolk, and governments in lessening the negative financial impact of natural events, issues of providing premium subsidies and being tied to credit in the Philippines remain to be important policy issues...

 

PIDS

Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Economic Issue of the Day:
  • No.1 Mergers and Acquisitions: Do They Hinder Competition?December 2016
  • No.2 Diving Into the Blue Economy, December 2016
 

PIDS

Graduate Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies: Volume 9 (2014), Volume 8 (2012), Volume 7 No 2 (2011) & No 1 (2010).

 

GJAPS

Chinese Southern Diaspora Studies, Volume 7, 2014-15

 

CSDS/ANU

Empirical Evidence on “Systemic as a Herd”: The Case of Japanese Regional Banks, January 2017.This paper examines a sample of Japanese regional banks’ exposure to market risk factors and how it affects systemic risk through portfolio composition or revenue source, using Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2016) CoVaR to proxy for systemic risk. We find evidence of “systemic as a herd” behaviour among Japanese regional banks, as portfolio and revenue components associated with market activities exert positive and significant impacts on systemic risk by generating higher comovement among banks, even though they reduce standalone bank risk through portfolio diversification. Further, the marginal effect of an increase in a given banks’ market-related components on systemic risk is larger when the share of the corresponding components is already high among other banks. Our results have important implications from the macro-prudential perspective.

 

MAS

Sri Lanka Suffers from China’s Indian Ocean Strategy, February 2017. Shiyana Gunasekara, former Fulbright Scholar in Sri Lanka, explains that “This should be of particular concern to India, since China has used the Colombo South Container Terminal to dock submarines, as opposed to the Sri Lanka Port Authority’s mooring designated for military vessels."

 

EWC

Power Asymmetry in the China-India Brahmaputra River Dispute, February 2017. Selina Ho, Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, explains that “Because the current state of Sino-Indian relations is satisfactory for China, its strategy is focused on maintaining the status quo.”

 

EWC

The State of Asia Pacific Free Trade, February 2017. Eduardo Pedrosa, Secretary General of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, explains that “The introduction of more border taxes will raise costs for consumers, and is unlikely to create the kinds of jobs people hope for.”

 

EWC

Foreign Direct Investment and National Security: Regulatory Challenges for the US and Japan, January 2017. Rikako Watai, Professor of Administrative Law at Keio University Law School in Tokyo, explains that “In order to protect national security while pursuing the goals of economic growth and trade expansion, regulations of the US and Japan over FDI will need to be made both stronger and more transparent.”

 

EWC

Does Unplanned Urbanization Pose a Disease Risk in Asia? The Case of Avian Influenza in Vietnam, January 2017.  Cities are expanding very rapidly in Asia, often without adequate housing, transportation, water, or sanitation. These new "peri-urban" areas may be hot spots for disease, both in humans and domestic animals. Research into the possible link between unplanned urban expansion and disease outbreaks compared patterns of land-use change with two major outbreaks in Vietnam of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1) that killed millions of chickens between 2003 and 2005. Work began by classifying communes into land-use categories: rural, peri-urban, urban, and urban core. The study found that peri-urban communes had at least a 150 percent higher risk of experiencing an H5N1 outbreak than did other types of commune, and that urbanization entails a spatial convergence of several key risk factors for H5N1 transmission...

 

EWC

The Future of the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation: Indonesia’s Chance to Promote a New Era of Regional Law Enforcement Cooperation, February 2017. For 13 years, the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC) has served as a regional rallying point for much-needed counterterrorism (CT) capacity development and cooperation. Since its inception in 2004, with strong bilateral support from the Australian Government,1 JCLEC’s operating and donor environments have evolved considerably. The strong relationship between the Indonesian National Police (POLRI) and Australian Federal Police (AFP) that has raised and sustained JCLEC is in a state of decline. Regional partners and donors are now considering JCLEC’s future. There are some big decisions to be made, the most pressing of which is whether JCLEC should become a truly regional body or an Indonesian Government institution...

 

ASPI

Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: Innovate or Perish, March 2017. Middle-income countries need to embrace a strategy focused on capability to advance innovation, move up the value chain, and create decent jobs. We analyze the reasons for the middle-income trap in Latin America, where countries have been at the middle-income level for decades, and draw out lessons for Asia. The middle-income trap captures a situation where a middle-income country can no longer compete internationally in standardized, labor-intensive goods because wages are relatively too high, but it also cannot compete in higher value-added activities on a broad enough scale because productivity is relatively too low. The result is slow growth, stagnant or falling wages, and a growing informal economy...

 

ADB

Exchange Rates, International Trade, and Growth: Re-evaluation of Undervaluation, March 2017. Less integrated trading partners usually bear the cost of trade balance expansion. We show that regional trade integration shifts the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. Thus, they bear the cost of trade balance expansion, while competitive exchange rate moves vis-a-vis regional trade agreement (RTA) trading partners result in no expansion or deterioration of the overall trade balance. First, using the data on 138 countries that have been involved in regional trade integration through signing regional trade agreements (RTAs) since 1990, we show that upon a 10% depreciation towards non-RTA trading partners results in a 4.4% improvement of the aggregate trade balance...

 

ADB

Son Biased Investments and Old Age Support, March 2017. Parents tend to invest more in sons but receive higher returns from daughters. Son biased investments are common in many Asian countries where sons are customarily responsible for providing old age support to parents. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, I find that parents invested nearly twice more in sons than in daughters in terms of college education spending and marriage gifts value. Conversely, parents received relatively higher marginal returns to investment from daughters than from sons in terms of living proximity, monetary and in-kind transfers, and help with instrumental activities of daily living. Family fixed effects models as well as an instrumental variable strategy are employed to control for the potential endogeneity of parental investments in children...

 

ADB

Structural Transformation, Growth, and Inequality: Evidence from Viet Nam, March 2017. Viet Nam is growing rapidly, but not very inclusively. We examine whether structural transformation leads to growth and income inequality in Viet Nam. Using three rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (2002, 2006, and 2010), we estimate re-centered influence functions to construct a decomposition analysis. Our results indicate that Viet Nam continues to experience sustained structural transformation and growth, but this growth is heterogeneous across regions. The growth exhibits pro-rich gains, with returns to agriculture and manufacturing increasing only for the top 10 to 20 percentiles...

 

ADB

Long-term Care and Pay-for-Performance Programs, March 2017. Despite challenges, pay-for-performance will be increasingly important for improving health-care quality. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has introduced several pay-for-performance programs in the last few years to encourage hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. Some state Medicaid programs have also introduced pay-for-performance for nursing homes. Long-term care providers play an important role in hospital pay-for-performance programs because they can affect the readmission rate and also total episode payments. A good pay-for-performance program will focus on improving quality of care that affects health outcomes...

 

ADB

The Case for Cash, March 2017. Cash does not fuel crime, any more than condoms fuel lust. Cash is an extremely useful social contrivance. Two possible drawbacks of high-denomination cash have recently been discussed by Kenneth Rogoff in his book The Curse of Cash, and echoed by other economists. They are the extensive use of high-denomination cash by criminals and others engaged in illicit and corrupt activities, and the role that cash plays in avoiding deeply negative nominal interest rates imposed on bank accounts...

 

ADB

Drivers of Trade Finance Gaps, February 2017. Trade finance gaps result mainly from bank decisions but solutions must be found elsewhere. Banks are a critical facilitator of trade. Without bank-intermediated trade finance, global exports and imports would come to a halt. This has been apparent during the episodes of credit rationing that accompany financial shocks. But we have little insight into the drivers of rejection pooling by banks in normal times. Using augmented data from a global survey of financial institutions, we test the relative explanatory power of country- and bank-level characteristics as drivers of trade finance rejections in emerging markets and among small and medium-sized enterprises...

 

ADB

Inequalities and Patience in Catching Up, February 2017. Inequality may be a necessary evil for a country to increase welfare faster. We examine how impatience interacts with inequalities in economic development. We consider two distinct groups of households (i.e., with intrinsic inequality), and show that (i) under decreasing marginal impatience (DMI), an unequal society may be preferable for poor households; (ii) poor households tend to benefit more from positive shocks under DMI than constant marginal impatience...

 

ADB

Trade and Sustainable Fisheries, February 2017. Managing fisheries well and sharing trade benefits equitably can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Our ultimate goal is to formulate fish trade policy recommendations that can be deployed to help achieve the relevant Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (SDGs). Even though all the 17 SDGs are relevant to the issues addressed in this contribution, I will focus on SDG14: Life under the water, and also SDG 1 (No poverty); 2 (Zero hunger); 3 (Gender equality); 4: (Reduced inequality); and 12 (Responsible consumption and production)...

 

ADB

International Trade and Inequality, February 2017. nternational trade's impact on income inequality is mixed; governments need to promote human resource development and income redistribution. The impact of globalization on equality has become a serious concern for many countries. There is growing evidence challenging the theoretical prediction that international trade positively impacts income distribution. We address this subject, surveying the empirical findings on the impact of international trade on inequalities from various perspectives...

 

ADB

Accelerating Urbanization Explained: The Role of Information, February 2017. Information and communication technology speeds up urbanization. We argue that urbanization has accelerated in the last few decades, and that this largely overlooked phenomenon cannot be explained by existing empirical models of urbanization. Consequently, we explicitly bring forward the role of information in driving urbanization, focusing on information and communication technology (ICT), especially the Internet...

 

ADB

Time, Uncertainty, and Trade Flows, February 2017. International transit time matters more for South-South trade while uncertainty matters more for North-North trade. We quantify the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large dataset on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under one percent at the sample median...

 

ADB

Technical Progress and the Share of Labor Income, February 2017. Most technical progress in the People's Republic of China has been capital biased, leading to greater inequality. Changes in the labor share of national income affect inequality. We investigate the relationship between the labor share and technical progress, based on provincial data from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 1978 to 2012. Our results show that technical progress in the PRC had been mostly capital biased, contributing to the fast rises in income inequality in the PRC...

 

ADB

Housing and Household Wealth Inequality: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China, February 2017. Housing value appreciation contributes to widening wealth inequality in the People's Republic of China. We examine the issue of the widening wealth inequality in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from the perspective of housing. Using China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data from 2011, we find that the PRC’s wealth inequality including housing is much larger than income inequality...

 

ADB

Facilitate Trade for Development: Aid for Trade, February 2017. Applied holistically and flexibly, aid for trade can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at its core calls to “increase aid-for-trade support for developing countries, in particular least developed countries”. This echoes the aid-for-trade reference in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the Third International Conference on Financing for Development...

 

ADB

The Trade and Water Nexus, February 2017. Trade in goods can help ease the water crisis. Understanding the impact of international trade on the use of water resources provides a set of interesting ideas and concepts to further strengthen the global sustainable development agenda. This paper investigates and devises the direct and indirect links between international trade and water resources...

 

ADB

Trade in Health Services and Sustainable Development, February 2017. Trade in health services can help achieve health-related Sustainable Development Goals. Effective health services form the backbone of health interventions. Accessibility, quality, capacity, organization, availability of human and physical resources, and equity in the provision of health services are essential for a healthcare system to deliver desired outcomes...

 

ADB

The Sources of Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, February 2017. Access to education and finance are key to reducing income inequality. Growing inequality is an important problem for developing countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Narrowing the gap between those at the top and at bottom of the income distribution has become one of governments’ main concerns. To achieve this goal, the sources of income inequality must be identified appropriately...

 

ADB

Trade and the Post-2015 Development Agenda, February 2017. Reducing barriers to trade in services can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Trade can and should play an important role in making progress to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. This includes trade and investment in services, as realizing many of the goals is conditional on improved performance of services sectors in developing countries...

 

ADB

East Asian Integration: Towards an East Asian Economic Community, February 2017. East Asia has the opportunity to build bridges within the region at a time when the United States appears to be building walls around itself. East Asia is a region of great global significance, currently accounting for around 30% of the global economy by most measures, e.g. production, trade, investment, and finance...

 

ADB

Other ADBI Working Papers:  

ADB

APEC Outcomes and Outlook 2016/2017. As APEC heads to Viet Nam in 2017 under the theme, “Creating New Dynamism, Fostering a Shared Future”, a regional agenda with the following priorities are put forward: Promoting sustainable, innovative, and inclusive growth; Deepening regional economic integration; Strengthening MSMEs’ competitiveness and innovation in the digital age; and Enhancing food security and sustainable agriculture in response to climate change. This publication also looks back at the outcomes of APEC Peru 2016 and the the 24th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru.

 

APEC

Case Study on the Role of Services Trade in Global Value Chains: Health and Medical Services in Malaysia, February 2017. This case study is one out of the four which examines the role of services in global value chains (GVCs), particularly the effects market-opening services development have had on the economy and GVCs. The healthcare sector has been identified as an important sector to developing the competitiveness of the Malaysian economy. This study focuses on the healthcare sector reforms in Malaysia in terms of its health and medical services, in particular policy reforms to increase the participation of healthcare sector in GVC...

 

APEC

APEC Training Course on Common Principles to Shipping Policy, February 2017. This project aims to build APEC economies’ capacity in the area of policy development and contribute to the implementation of “APEC Common Principles to Shipping Policy” in order to enhance the liberalization in maritime sector that was presented by TPTWG. The project ensures the workshop participants are able to enhance understanding of port commercialization, privatization and port investment funding in the Asia Pacific region by providing an opportunity for exchange of experiences and learning among stakeholders.

 

APEC

Enhancing Aviation Connectivity and Emissions Reduction via Implementation of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Assistance Program: Final Site Visit Report - Mexico, February 2017. This report presents the results of two five-day site visits to Mexico City to determine the current state of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) implementation in Mexico, as well as identification of actions that need to be taken to successfully implement PBN in accordance with the ICAO standards, recommended practices and guidance.

 

APEC

Enhancing Aviation Connectivity and Emissions Reduction via Implementation of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Assistance Program: Final Site Visit Report - Indonesia, February 2017. This report documents the results of two five-day site visits to Jakarta to determine the current state of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) implementation in Indonesia, as well as identification of actions that are needed to successfully implement PBN in accordance with the ICAO’s standards, recommended practices and guidance.

 

APEC

Study on the Application of Global Data Standards for APEC Supply Chain Connectivity (Phase 1), February 2017. This study assesses the cost and benefits of applying GDS in supply chains through the tracking of two GDS pilot projects that were conducted in phase 1. The two pilots covered cross-border shipments of: (1) wine from Australia to Hong Kong, China; and (2) beef from Australia to USA. The pilots in this study demonstrated the time, resources and commitment required by businesses to progress the adoption of GDS...

 

APEC

Final Implementation Report on APEC project "HRD 01 2014A - Systematic Design of Green Skills Development in TVET", January 2017. This report outlines the implementation and outcomes of the project, ‘Systematic Design of Green Skills Development in TVET’, which put forward the development of general contents list of green skills and new directions, and establishment of green skills networks.

 

APEC

Public-Private Partnerships for Transportation in the APEC Region: An Analysis and Literature Review, January 2017. This report identifies gaps, good practices, and capacity-building requirements in the region to promote more effective PPPs in transportation infrastructure, including airports, railroads, roads, seaports, and transit systems. It identifies and examines existing information on project identification, prioritization, and analysis and structuring of PPPs in the APEC region; incorporates specific case studies to highlight factors that led to the successful implementation of transportation PPPs; examines lessons learned that should be considered when implementing future transportation PPPs; and makes preliminary recommendations based on the gaps identified in the region and on standard best practices.

 

APEC

Innovation for Women and Economic Development Facilitating Women's Livelihood Development and Resilience with ICTs, December 2016. The aim of this project is to promote awareness of women’s needs in the APEC region by embracing new devices and services for developing their livelihood, to identify and share pertinent experiences and know-how related to ICT innovations that can be replicated to broaden women’s ability to do business with the global value chain, and to help stakeholders formulate public-private partnerships (PPPs) that can both facilitate sustainable new business models and create an ideal policy environment for women.

 

APEC

Water Energy Nexus: Coal-Based Power Generation and Conversion - Saving Water, December 2016. More than half of the APEC economies generate a significant (>33%) portion of their electricity from coal. However, the focus on clean development necessitates reduction in water consumption for power generation, especially where water resources are stressed. The volume of water required for power generation depends on several factors, such as the generation technology, type of cooling deployed, and site operating conditions...

 

APEC

Study on Infrastructure Investment in the APEC Region, September 2016. This study was started as an APEC project with a view to following up the issues relevant to the Physical Connectivity of the APEC Connectivity Blueprint for 2015-2025. The study looks at (i) how the international and domestic (public and private) financial institutions employ these principles in their policies, and (ii) how these principles work in specific infrastructure projects based on the information provided by volunteered APEC economies and financial institutions.

 

APEC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Journal of Korean Studies, Volume XX, Number 1, 2016  

IJKS

Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2017Q1, January 2017. According to its High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecast, real GDP is estimated to grow by 2.1% in 16Q4, when compared with the same period in 2015, slightly faster than the 1.9% growth in 16Q3. In 17Q1, real GDP growth is expected to improve to 2.3% when compared with the same period last year. Slowed from the 2.4% growth in 2015, we forecast Hong Kong GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2016 as a whole, upward revised by 0.1 percentage points comparing to our previous forecast. We expect Hong Kong GDP will growth between 1.5% to 2.5% in 2017.

 

HKU

Trump and Strategic Change in Asia, January 2017. As Donald Trump’s administration comes to power in Washington, the postwar security policy of the US is undergoing a monumental transition. The new president’s campaign rhetoric strongly intimated that under his self-proclaimed ‘America first’ posture, traditional American strategy and alliance politics would undergo a major change. His approach to dealing with allies and adversaries will be based less on their traditional roles in US foreign policy and more on how he and his foreign and security policy team view other countries’ willingness to adjust their own policies to conform with a markedly different set of US economic and strategic priorities. This paper looks at North Korea, Southeast Asia, Australia and region-wide concerns. It concludes while Trump postulates an ‘America first’ posture, that hardly represents an ‘Asia last’ prescription. Above all else, Trump’s history is shaped by his reputation in the business world for hard but fluid bargaining to derive optimal results for interest-based objectives.

 

ASPI

Dragon and Eagle Entangled: Sino-US Military Exchanges, 2001–2016, January 2017. US–China military exchanges constitute an important aspect of bilateral relations between the reigning superpower and a fast-rising one. This ASPI Strategy takes stock of Sino-US military contacts over the past 15 years and provides some preliminary assessments of the evolution and implications of this critical aspect of perhaps the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. It seeks to achieve three objectives. First, it identifies, compares and discusses the rationales, expectations and approaches of the two militaries regarding the relationship. Second, it outlines and reviews bilateral Sino-US military contacts from 2001 to 2016, essentially covering both the George W Bush and Barack Obama administrations. Third, it analyses and evaluates US–China military ties over this period and provides some explanations of their promises, progress and pitfalls.

 

ASPI

South Asia's Efforts at Regional Reintegration: Fantasy or Feasible, January 2017. RTariq A. Karim, Bangladesh high commissioner to New Delhi, explains that “The region has been held a hapless prisoner of the Partition syndrome, stymying all efforts at economic reintegration.”

 

EWC

Vacillations and Dramas Exist in Sino-Philippines Relations Too, January 2017. Chu Yin, Associate Professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, explains that “The Philippine attitude towards China has vacillated heavily.”

 

EWC

Putting the Pacific on China's Radar, January 2017. Tristan Kenderdine, Research Director at Future Risk, explains that “The Pacific Islands Forum economies have a huge opportunity to align with China’s global geostrategy through the new capacity cooperation financing mechanisms.”

 

EWC

Trends in Southeast Asia 2017 #1: Johor Remains the Bastion of Kaum Tua. Many scholars on Malaysia have recognized that Salafism-Wahhabism has penetrated substantially into the country’s political and social life. The southern state of Johor has always been considered, and remains, the bastion of kaum tua, with its religious institutions dominated by ulama (religious scholars) who are traditionalist in character but tolerant of religious practices that are infused with local culture and mysticism. These scholars have also tended to maintain conservative attitudes on gender issues, inter-religious relations, and intra-faith differences. The Sultan of Johor appoints the Mufti whose primary role is to issue fatwas (religious rulings) and be the ex-officio of the Johor Islamic Religious Council, the highest Islamic body in the state. Johor’s Muftis are dominantly political quietists, and loyal to the ruling family...

 

ISEAS

Evolving Paradigms in Regional Development in Malaysia, October 2016. In seeking to foster economic growth, policy-makers in Malaysia have also had to grapple conceptually and operationally with how best to deal with differing income levels in different parts of the country. In addition, this challenge has changed in nature over time, in line with the country’s increasing wealth and urbanization, and as understandings of what regional development is and how it should be pursued have evolved. Over the decades, approaches have shifted away from a sole focus on rural development and an aspatial approach to regional development towards a greater emphasis on urbanization and a deeper understanding of the relationship between location and economic growth...

 

ISEAS

The Impact of Local Content Requirements on the Indonesian Manufacturing Industry, October 2016. Local content requirements (LCRs) are prohibited under the WTO law as they violate several WTO provisions including the national treatment principle. Nonetheless, many countries, including Indonesia, persistently use LCRs as part of their industrial policies. Countries implement LCRs for various reasons, including to protect local industries; to create employment; to boost export; to enhance local innovation capacity; and to support broader economic development in the country. This paper examines the impact of LCRs in manufacturing sector in Indonesia, with a particular interest on the machinery and transport industries. Since LCRs discourage foreign imports, hence it is expected they may affect firm’s use of imported inputs...

 

ISEAS

Reassessing Malaysia’s Export Opportunities in the TPP, September 2016. The main economic motivation for forging bilateral, regional and multilateral agreements for Malaysia is to enhance the export opportunities for its firms as it is relatively dependent on trade for supporting growth. There is an extensive literature on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) since negotiations were started five years ago and this literature continues to grow after the agreement was signed in February 2016. The literature identifies some overall gains for Malaysia and some sectoral gains, especially in textiles and apparel. The objective of this paper is to re-assess these export opportunities, using a comparative country perspective since the TPP has 12 founding members...

 

ISEAS

Determinants of Singapore’s Outward FDI, February 2016. Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has been an important element in Singapore’s economic strategy since the 1990s, with the government providing direct and indirect support to support the internationalization process. Recent OFDI trends indicate that China has become an important destination for Singapore. In ASEAN, Singapore’s main investment markets are Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The Singapore’s OFDI has important sectoral dimensions, supported by evidence from econometric analysis. It is also important to distinguish between OFDI stock and flows. Further research is needed to understand the erratic behavior of flows in the region.

 

ISEAS

A Review of the Recent Literature on the Institutional Economics Analysis of the Long-Run Performance of Nations, January 2016. This paper reviews the recent (post-2000) literature which assesses the importance of institutions as a factor determining cross-country differences in growth rates or in the contemporary level of “prosperity”. It first sketches how institutional economics has evolved. It then examines critically the methods of analysis employed in the recent literature. The paper finds that this literature has made a major contribution to the analysis of the causes of economic growth but the relative importance of institutions as a determinant of long-run growth and prosperity is still a wide open question.

 

ISEAS

What Lies Ahead for Malaysian Healthcare? December 2015. Healthcare in Malaysia has been characterised by a strong public sector presence where government hospitals and clinics acted as a primary source of care. The healthcare system has also been lauded as a model for other developing countries to follow as it has succeeded in improving the health status of Malaysians over time. With the rising costs of healthcare over the last three decades, the government is now facing increasing pressures to restructure its healthcare system. Social healthcare insurance, corporatisation, and privatisation have been increasingly seen as possible measures to supplement the current healthcare system dominated by the public sector...

 

ISEAS

Malaysia’s Protracted Affirmative Action Policy and the Evolving Bumiputera Commercial and Industrial Community, December 2015. This paper examines the evolution of the Bumiputera Commercial and Industrial Community (BCIC) in the context of Malaysia’s protracted affirmative action from 1971 to the present. It explores, on one hand, how the state has responded to the demands of different Malay pressure groups and, on the other, to external shocks arising from economic globalization. These external factors have compelled the state to deregulate and liberalize its economic policies which run contrary to the goal of promoting the development of a BCIC...

 

ISEAS

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia, January 2017. This survey of sea level rise and its economic impacts provides a clear window to its effects on future economic activities. This paper examines the impact of global sea level rise (SLR) on the economic growth, migration and tourism from various empirical studies and consolidates several sea level projections by 2100 under different scenarios. The paper also points out the regions or countries most vulnerable to SLR include atoll countries and small islands states like Kiribati and Singapore. In addition, it tackles several adaptation cost estimates for selected countries in developing Asia and summarizes adaptive strategies and mitigation as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. Lastly, it presents policy recommendations for developing Asia to cope with increasing sea levels.

 

ADB

Decoupling Asia Revisited, January 2017. This paper investigates the channels of growth spillovers and estimates the degree of macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and G3 economies. First, it examines the progress of regional economic integration which has positively impacted the business cycle comovements both intraregionally and interregionally. Second, with the People’s Republic of China playing a central role in the regional production network, its ongoing structural changes will likely influence Asia’s trade patterns and economic integration. Finally, findings from vector autoregression model estimation suggest that the United States economy remains an important source of external demand shock for emerging East Asia, although the impact of the People’s Republic of China has increased sharply.

 

ADB

Spillover Effects of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing on East Asian Economies, January 2017. East Asian economies benefited from Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing policies. This paper explores the spillover effects of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on East Asian economies. Under the new monetary policy regime, the Japanese yen depreciated substantially, raising concerns that it would have a regional beggar-thy-neighbor effect. It is thus important to see what effects the QQE had on neighboring economies...

 

ADB

Infrastructure and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China, January 2017. Returns to infrastructure investment in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been declining; policy makers need to adjust investment decisions. The recent experience of infrastructure investment in the PRC suggests an intertwined relationship between investment, urbanization, and economic growth. In one mechanism, urbanization generates demand for infrastructure investment, which then drives economic growth via various channels including reducing transaction costs and raising productivity. Another mechanism emphasized in this paper is that infrastructure investment can promote urbanization through facilitating economic agglomeration toward hub cities...

 

ADB

Why Geographic Dispersion Before Its Time: Industrial Policy and Economic Geography in the People’s Republic of China, January 2017. Geographic concentration and industrial specialization suffer when local governments follow central governments at the expense of their comparative advantage. We investigate the trends and determinants of geographic concentration and industrial specialization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using interprovincial panel data for the period from 1999 to 2010. It shows that, after 2005, both geographic concentration and industrial specialization began to decrease, resulting in an increased similarity of provincial industrial structure...

 

ADB

How Would a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Affect its Trading Partners? January 2017. A slowdown in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would affect its various trading partners differently. The PRC has become an important importer for many countries. We investigate how turbulence in the PRC can spill over to trading partners through the trade channel. Exports from several East Asian and Southeast Asian countries to the PRC exceed 10% of their gross domestic products. To shed light on economies’ exposures to the PRC, this paper estimates a gravity model. The results indicate that Taipei,China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are exposed to the PRC because they produce goods for the PRC market and are exposed to advanced economies because they ship parts and components to the PRC for processing and reexport to the West...

 

ADB

Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis, January 2017. The People’s Republic of China’s current slowdown seems to be part of a long-term trend. Whether the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. Based on provincial panel data, we identify the determinants of productivity and uses counter-factual analysis to decompose the causes of the PRC’s post-crisis slowdown. We find that economic openness has a significantly positive impact on the technical efficiency of production, whereas the income level has a significantly negative effect...

 

ADB

Exploring the Trade–Urbanization Nexus in Developing Economies: Evidence and Implications, January 2017. Trade in cereals is critical to urban development. Developing countries have seen a rapid rise in population urbanization in the past decades. At the same time, they have participated actively in the process of globalization. However, possible interlinks between population urbanization and trade openness in developing economies have been ignored by present literature. We propose a simple framework explaining the cereals trade–population urbanization nexus, showing how cereals supply constrains population urbanization and how international trade can change this constraint...

 

ADB

Federalism, Fiscal Space, and Public Investment Spending, January 2017. States tend to contain public investment spending to comply with fiscal rules. The core emphasis of rules-based fiscal legislation at the subnational level in India is to achieve debt sustainability through a numerical ceiling on borrowing and the use of borrowed resources for public capital investment by phasing out revenue deficits. Using the Arellano Bond Panel estimation, this paper examines whether the application of fiscal rules has resulted in an increase in the fiscal space for public capital investment spending in major Indian states. This analysis shows that by controlling other factors, there is a negative relationship between fiscal rules and public capital investment spending at the state level during the rules-based fiscal regime.

 

ADB

Trade and Trade Policy Issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals, January 2017. A well-designed trade policy could improve domestic regulations and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal's ultimate aim of a “better life”. This paper presents an overview of the trade and policy issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It assesses the dramatic changes in the political, economic, and business background from the early 2000s (shaping the MDGs) to the early 2010s (designing the SDGs). These changes rarely get the attention they merit, despite their profound consequences on how to use—or not use—trade policies for promoting development...

 

ADB

Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific, Janaury 2017. he United States’ unconventional monetary policies have led to rapid capital inflows, strong currency appreciation, and asset price and credit booms in Asia and the Pacific. We assess the evolution of spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Asia and the Pacific region, and evaluate the impact on and implications for the macroeconomy. We develop a Panel Vector Auto Regression model for the Asia and Pacific region for a period covering data from first quarter 2000 until first quarter 2015. We split the overall sample into two subsets: the Pre-Crisis (2000q1–2006q4) and Post-Crisis (2009q1–2015q1) samples. We identify unconventional monetary policy shocks with a shadow interest rate estimated by Krippner (2013)...

 

ADB

Highlights of the International Conference on Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience, Published 2016. The conference held on 8–9 September 2016 strengthened understanding of how systemic risks build up and spread across different financial networks. This conference was organized by ADB in collaboration with the Institute of Global Finance, University of New South Wales and sponsored by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bloomberg. It provided a venue for fruitful discussion among members of the academia, central bankers, regulators, and international financial institutions to build resilience and safeguard stability in the region. The conference will also form the foundation for one of ADB’s flagship publications, the Asian Economic Integration Report 2017.

 

ADB

Import Licensing Regimes: An APEC Snapshot and Considerations for their Use, January 2017. This Policy Brief looks at the use of import licensing in APEC, examining the reasons behind such measures as well as the costs incurred. Alternate policy measures that can be used in place of import licenses are discussed as well.

 

APEC

Trade of Fishery Products and Fisheries Subsidies in APEC, January 2017. This Policy Brief reviews the trend of trade of fishery products, as well as various trade measures, including tariffs and non-tariff measures in the APEC region. Finally, the Policy Brief discusses the current situation of fisheries subsidies within the APEC region and their implications on the sustainability of fish stocks.

 

APEC

Survey on the Readiness for Joining Cross Border Privacy Rules System - CBPRs, January 2017. This report provides the result of a survey conducted to determine the readiness of the 21 APEC member economies in participating in APEC CBPRS. The survey was designed to find out if an economy could satisfy basic requirements to participate: the existence of privacy law, enforcement authority on privacy, trust-mark providers; the consistency between privacy legislation with APEC Privacy Framework.

 

APEC

Developing Traveler-Friendly Airports to Improve the Passenger Experience in the APEC Region: A Best Practices Report, January 2017. This report contains the findings of field assessments conducted in five volunteer airports in the APEC region. Considered a crucial aspect of determining what constitutes a favorable passenger experience, the objectives of the field assessments were to gain an in-depth understanding of international/domestic and arrival/departure passenger process flows and to observe services that are provided to passengers throughout the airport...

 

APEC

Energy and Economic Competitiveness, October 2016. This study analyses how the fluctuations of energy prices would affect macroeconomic situations, industrial sectors, trade and competitiveness of APEC economies.

 

APEC

Plans for Fuel Supplies during Disasters in Expectation of Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes, October 2016. This report examines the specific measures being taken by the government and private sector in the control of damage in preparation for Nankai megathrust earthquakes based on their learnings from the Great East Japan Earthquake. The report provides damage forecasts and summarizes measure announcements made by the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

 

APEC

Working Papers of Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore:  

IPS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

  

 
 

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