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We index full-text journals with open access platforms in our Asia-Studies Full-Text Plus section. Here is the list of journals available.

  
 

 

  
 

 

  
 

 

  
 

March 2025 Current Topics

  

Source

 

 

  

 

Mutual Contradictions - Pacific Islands Cooperation for Maritime Security with Global Powers, February 2025. The Blue Pacific identity is not a “fancy concept”; it is about the collective heritage of the people of the Pacific. Maritime security is primarily viewed through these ecological anthropic lenses and the historical experience of the Pacific. The Blue Pacific concept represents “a long-term Forum foreign policy commitment to act as one Blue Continent.” ...

  

EWC

Maritime Threats Across the Pacific Islands - Vulnerabilities and Opportunities for Cooperative Action and Technological Solutions, February 2025. The maritime territory of the Pacific Islands, characterized by its vast expanses and rich marine biodiversity, faces a complex array of maritime threats that challenge its economic development, environmental sustainability, and regional security. These threats, ranging from illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing to climate change, transnational crime, and marine pollution, exploit the inherent vulnerabilities of Pacific Island nations...

  

EWC

Legal Challenges in Maritime Governance Cooperation in the Pacific Islands Region, February 2025. Despite limited land area, populations, and economies, under international law, roughly one dozen Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have de jure control of vast exclusive economic zones (EEZs) that total over 19 million square kilometers, an area larger than Russia. However, most of these countries have significant development needs, and many lack the domestic capacity to effectively govern their expansive maritime domains...

  

EWC

Australia’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. When it comes to strengthening Pacific maritime governance, Australia’s principal objective is to support the regional security architecture through bilateral and multilateral engagement. Australia is an original member of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Australia seeks to strengthen law and order at sea while respecting Pacific priorities...

  

EWC

US Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The United States seeks to promote stability, security, and sustainable development across the Pacific Islands by helping to enhance maritime governance. Central to US objectives is combatting illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing and transnational crime, including human trafficking and drug smuggling by criminal networks in Asia. The United States also aims to bolster the economic well-being of Pacific Island nations by ensuring the sustainable management of maritime resources, particularly fisheries...

  

EWC

Aotearoa New Zealand’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. Aotearoa New Zealand is “a Pacific Island nation, surrounded by water” within Te Moana-nui-a-kiwa, the Pacific Ocean. It has interests in the region's maritime safety, security, and governance. New Zealand maintains a non-self-governing territory, Tokelau, and has special security and defense responsibilities regarding independent states in free association—Niue and Cook Islands. New Zealand is responsible for the security and defense of their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and represents their interests at the United Nations...

  

EWC

Japan’s Contributions to Maritime Governance in the Pacific, February 2025. Japan's involvement in maritime governance in the Pacific is driven by a strategic commitment to maintaining and enhancing regional security and safety. This effort is a crucial element of Japan’s vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP). The socio-economic development of the Pacific islands and combating transnational crime are the cornerstones of Japan's maritime security activities in the Pacific Ocean...

  

EWC

The People’s Republic of China’s Contributions to Maritime Governance in the Pacific, February 2025. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) approach to Pacific maritime governance seeks to improve China’s standing among regional countries, reshape the international maritime order in ways more aligned with PRC interests, and set terms favorable to PRC military and commercial actors. PRC diplomats engaging their Pacific island country (PIC) counterparts advocate building a “China-Pacific Island Countries community with a shared future.”...

  

EWC

The United Kingdom’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) have not factored significantly in the United Kingdom’s (UK) policymaking since a comparatively late wave of decolonization between 1970 to 1980. During this time, Fiji, Tonga, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Vanuatu gained independence. A diplomatic withdrawal from the Pacific defined policy in the early 2000s. Unlike Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Islands are not explicitly featured in the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Chapter of the UK’s National Strategy for Maritime Security...

  

EWC

France’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. France's Pacific territories, which include New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia, and Clipperton, form a vast Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering around 7 million km². This area accounts for 67% of France’s total global EEZ. France's primary focus in maritime governance in the Pacific is protecting this resource-rich maritime domain from Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing and drug trafficking...

  

EWC

The Republic of Korea’s Contributions to Pacific Maritime Governance, February 2025. The Republic of Korea (ROK) has a significant interest in Pacific maritime governance owing to its reliance on maritime trade, its security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region, and how the ROK’s Indo-Pacific Strategy intersects with its aspirations to become a “Global Pivotal State,” a term coined by the Yoon Suk Yeol government. The ROK's objectives and actions in Pacific maritime governance can be understood through its strategic perspectives, policies, contributions, and the challenges it faces...

  

EWC

China versus America on Global Trade, January 2025. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House means another trade war between the United States and China looks increasingly likely, with the rest of the world caught in the crossfire. What has happened to global trading relationships since the last US–China trade war of 2018–19? This Data Snapshot provides an update and expands on our previous exercise mapping the shift towards China and away from the United States as the larger trading partner for each economy in the world...

  

Lowy

Five One-Chinas: The Contest to Define Taiwan, January 2025. Global attention is often focused on Taiwan’s dwindling diplomatic partners, which have dropped to just 11 UN member states, mostly small Caribbean and Pacific Island countries. But what matters more is the growing global support for China’s efforts to bring Taiwan under its control, potentially via the use of force. Only 40 countries (21 per cent of UN member states) maintain one-China policies that recognise the government in Beijing but stop short of accepting China’s sovereignty over the de facto independent territory of Taiwan...

  

Lowy

State-Sponsored Economic Cyber-Espionage for Commercial Purposes: Assessing the Preparedness of Emerging Economies to Defend Against Cyber-Enabled IP Theft, February 2025. Strategic competition is deepening existing tensions and mistrust between states and prompts nations to develop capabilities that they consider central to sovereign national power. Technological capabilities sit at the centre of this. It’s therefore not surprising that governments around the world are seeking technological advantage over their competitors and potential adversaries. In this context, safeguarding intellectual property (IP) has become necessary not just because it’s an essential asset for any modern economy—developed or emerging—but because it’s also increasingly underwriting national and regional security...

  

ASPI

State-Sponsored Economic Cyber-Espionage for Commercial Purposes: Governmental Practices in Protecting IP-Intensive Industries, February 2025. This report looks at measures that governments in various parts of the world have taken to defend their economic ‘crown jewels’ and other critical knowledge-intensive industries from cyber threats. It should serve as inspiration for other governments, including from those economies studied in State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to defend against cyber-enabled IP theft...

  

ASPI

The Future of US Indo-Pacific Policy, February 2025. How might US policy in the Indo-Pacific change over the next four years? In anticipation of a new US administration and Congress in 2025, ASPI USA held an “alternative futures analysis” exercise in mid-October 2024 to explore the drivers of US policy and how they might evolve through to November 2028. The workshop involved seven Indo-Pacific experts, who discussed a range of factors that could determine US policy and assessed how key factors could drive different outcomes...

  

ASPI

The Pacific Cocaine Corridor: A Brazilian Cartel’s Pipeline to Australia, February 2025. The report highlights how Brazil’s Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) has become a major transnational criminal threat, exploiting weaknesses in political, legal, and economic systems. It explores Brazil’s geography and criminal networks with South American cocaine producers and examines the PCC’s global distribution networks, with a focus on how the Pacific is increasingly used to transport drugs destined for Australia. A recent case study demonstrates the prioritisation of the Australian market in these operations...

  

ASPI

Responsible Cyber Behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, January 2025. In July 2025, the mandate of the United Nations Open-Ended Working Group on the security and use of information and communications technologies (hereafter OEWG) ends. This marks the latest chapter of international discussions on responsible behaviour in cyberspace. Throughout a 20-year period, a corpus of reports has been delivered that outline standards of behaviour. Taken together, this is referred to as the ‘UN framework of responsible state behaviour’ and includes an acceptance that international law applies to state conduct in cyberspace and a commitment to observe a set of norms...

  

ASPI

Fostering Order In The Indo-Pacific: What the EU Can Learn From and Do With Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, February 2025. One of the most critical challenges of this century is fostering order in the Indo-Pacific. (Dis)order in this space will significantly affect the international order. Not only do many Indo-Pacific residents lead efforts to probe and reform international order and concepts of order, but the superpower competition between the United States (US) and China primarily unfolds here. The EU is already cognizant of this. Yet, it is not just about what the EU and its members seek to accomplish in the region but just as much the interpretations of and preferences for order of key Indo-Pacific resident actors...

  

ISDP

Assessing the Effectiveness of China’s Military Exercises in Restraining Taiwan’s Leadership, February 2025. Beijing has been using coercive approaches to restrain Taiwan’s voices for decades. The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1995 and 1996 set a precedent for Beijing to conduct large-scale military exercises to deter Taiwan’s leadership from advocating sovereignty and deepening its relations with other countries. Between 2022 and 2024, China conducted several large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in response to statements made by Taiwan’s leadership. With many military exercises being conducted as part of its coercive strategies, Beijing still faces the challenge of restraining Taiwan’s leadership...

  

ISDP

Chinese Water Projects in Tibet: A “Continental Challenge”, February 2025. The management of transboundary water resources originating in Tibet has become a critical geopolitical and geo-economic issue in Asia. This issue brief examines China’s hydrological projects on the Tibetan Plateau and their implications for downstream countries. By exploring two key pillars of China’s water strategy—the construction of mega-dams and the South-North Water Diversion Project—the issue brief discusses both the domestic and international consequences of Beijing’s initiatives, such as environmental degradation, displacement of local populations, and the potential for Beijing to weaponize water as a geopolitical tool...

  

ISDP

Justice for the Rohingya: How Bangladesh and the International Community Can Uphold Human Rights, January 2025. The Rohingya crisis stands out as one of the most severe humanitarian emergencies of recent times. Since Myanmar’s military crackdown in 2017, over 700,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh, escaping violence that meets the criteria for genocide and ethnic cleansing under international law. This issue brief delves into the historical and political roots of Rohingya persecution, including the impact of Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law, which left them stateless and excluded from basic rights...

  

ISDP

Faultlines in Singapore: Perceptions and Management with a Focus on Race and Religion, February 2025. This report presents findings on public perceptions of faultlines and their management, with a particular focus on racial and religious divides. It is based on the third iteration of the IPS Survey on Race, Religion, and Language, conducted from April to August 2024, involving a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singaporean residents. This study builds on comparable data gathered in 2018 and 2013. At the outset, the study underscores the widespread belief that mismanagement of societal divides can have serious consequences...

  

IPS

Results from the IPS-OnePeople.sg Indicators of Racial and Religious Harmony 2024, February 2025. This report presents the latest findings from the IPS-OnePeople.sg Indicators of Racial and Religious Harmony, offering a detailed snapshot of Singapore’s ever-evolving racial and religious landscape. It rides on the IPS Survey on Race, Religion and Language, which was conducted between April 2024 to August 2024, on a nationally representative sample of 4,000 Singaporean residents. The current study builds on comparable data from 2018 and 2013. Key trends and developments across the indicators highlight both progress and persistent challenges...

  

IPS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

February 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

Potential Impact of Higher United States Tariffs on Asian Economies, January 2025. In 2018, the United States (US) government introduced protectionist measures by imposing tariffs under various sections of its Trade Act. Under Section 201, additional tariffs were imposed on solar cells or modules, starting at 30% in the first year (2019) and reduced to 15% by the fourth year (2022). Similarly, large residential washing machines were subject to additional tariffs of 20%–50% based on a tariff-rate quota. Tariffs were also imposed on steel and aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing economic security concerns. Initially, some economies, including the Republic of Korea, were temporarily exempt from these tariffs, but steel quotas and aluminum tariffs were eventually applied...

  

ADB

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2024. The Singapore economy expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 2.6% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. The respondents expect GDP to expand by 3.6% this year, up from 2.6% in the previous survey, with higher forecasts for the manufacturing and wholesale & retail trade sectors. As reflected in the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.5 to 3.9% this year, with an average probability of 54%. In the previous survey, the respondents assigned the highest probability to growth outturns of between 2.5 to 2.9%...

  

MAS

Balancing Act - Military Diplomacy and Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, January 2025. The Korean Peninsula, shaped by historical grievances, ideological divides, and contemporary geopolitical tensions—including North Korea’s alleged military support for Russia’s war with Ukraine and South Korea’s tense political situation—stands out as a heavily militarized and strategically crucial region. Under the scrutiny of the United States and positioned between major powers—China, Japan, and Russia—the peninsula's military dynamics profoundly influence regional and global security. The legacy of the Korean War is omnipresent...

  

EWC

Securing the Future - The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability, January 2025. The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship. Limited interactions marked the initial phase of the US-Maldives defense relationship, primarily focused on diplomatic engagements and occasional military exchanges...

  

EWC

Solar Panels and EV Batteries: US Green Energy Policies Toward China, January 2025. As of mid-2023, China produced 97 percent of the world’s solar panel silicon wafers and was rapidly growing in importance as a provider of batteries for the latest generations of electric vehicles. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had provisions to help US manufacturers of green technologies in the energy and automotive industries compete in key sectors against China. By late 2024, however, American efforts in these two vital green energy areas had seen both false starts at competition and defensive efforts that may be counterproductive to US interests...

  

EWC

Navigating Water Challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: How Can a Shift in Water Management Help? January 2025. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is currently grappling with multiple water challenges. These challenges stem from the alteration of the Mekong River’s natural flows caused by upstream hydropower development, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and local policies that prioritize agricultural production. This article examines how these combined stressors have prompted a shift in water management strategies—from focusing on water expulsion to water retention—to tackle water scarcity and achieve long-term water security in the VMD...

  

EWC

Responsible Cyber Behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, January 2025. In July 2025, the mandate of the United Nations OpenEnded Working Group on the security and use of information and communications technologies (hereafter OEWG) ends. This marks the latest chapter of international discussions on responsible behaviour in cyberspace. Throughout a 20-year period, a corpus of reports has been delivered that outline standards of behaviour. Taken together, this is referred to as the ‘UN framework of responsible state behaviour’ and includes an acceptance that international law applies to state conduct in cyberspace and a commitment to observe a set of norms...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 10, January 2025. Australia should establish a separate budget allocation for special defence industry grants to build up companies in the north in support of the armed forces. Northern Australia is strategically crucial, and so, therefore, is developing a defencesupporting industry there. But northern Australia’s limited economic depth presents huge problems for its companies in showing the business capacity needed to secure current Australian Defence Industry Grants. To overcome these obstacles, the budget line for separate Northern Australian Industry Grants need not be large...

  

ASPI

China, Russia and Undersea Cable Vulnerability: Shoring Up Protection, January, 2025. The global undersea cable network, carrying up to 99 percent of international internet traffic, faces increasing vulnerabilities. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan highlight the urgent need for enhanced protection measures and international cooperation. The mere possibility of cable interference can create significant anxiety in financial markets and erode public confidence in critical infrastructure, having a huge psychological impact. Russia and China are developing alternative cable routes and systems that could reduce Western control over global communications infrastructure...

  

ISDP

Forecasting European Security in 2025: Will Transatlantic Ties Test Europe’s Indo-Pacific Limits? January 2025. In late December 2024, Finland—one of the latest entries to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—seized an oil tanker, with alleged links to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” on grounds of “grave sabotage.” The vessel is suspected of damaging a subsea cable network connecting Estonia and Finland, the two European Union (EU) and NATO members that are staunchly defending Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Moreover, as other such incidents of infrastructure disruptions allegedly by not just Russia but also China have come to light, there is greater concern over escalating hybrid activities, many of which are unprecedented in scale and potential impact...

  

ISDP

Pezeshkian Aims to Strengthen Relations with Japan in All Fields, January 2025. Iran’s view of Japan correlates to the Masoud Pezeshkian government’s view of the international order and its economic and political needs. The Pezeshkian administration has a post-polar view of the international order and strives for cooperation, collaboration, and networking in various fields. In this regard, East Asia is important for the new government of Iran, wherein Japan has a prominent role. The Pezeshkian administration intends to strengthen relations between Tehran and Tokyo in all fields based on a “comprehensive roadmap” by taking advantage of extensive knowledge from Japan...

  

ISDP

Repurposing the United Nations to Address the Climate Crisis on the Tibetan Plateau, January 2025. The futures of people along China’s western frontier changed dramatically with the annexation of Xinjiang in 1949 and Tibet in 1950. When Communist China emerged from decades of isolation in the late 1970s and reasserted itself internationally through a strategy of rejuvenation under Xi Jinping, the native cultures that call the Tibetan Plateau home began a long period of subjugation and repression. As wider Central Asia is now threatened by climate change, strategies must be developed to respond to China’s growing influence internationally, regionally, and locally, as regional ecosystems, water storage and reserves, and local livelihoods are increasingly fragile...

  

ISDP

Report of the Webinar: Climate Crisis in Tibet – Part I: CCP’s Tibet Takeover: Wither Global Climate Action? January 2025. The webinar titled “Climate Crisis in Tibet”, organized by the SCSA-IPA at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), was held on December 18, 2024. This significant event brought together a distinguished panel of experts to explore the environmental and geopolitical impacts of China’s policies in Tibet. The Tibetan ecosystem has been majorly impacted by the accelerating climate change, as well as China’s rapacious so-called “developmental” aims and repressive political measures, including cultural annihilation and Sinicization...

  

ISDP

Climate Meltdown in Tibet: Global Recognition Still Missing, January 2025. The Tibetan Plateau covers approximately 2 percent of the planet, the size of Western Europe, with more than half of the area over 4000 m above sea level. It is the highest and most extensive highland in the world, with as many as 46,000 glaciers, making it the third-largest ice mass in the world. This issue brief aims to identify the importance of the Himalayan glaciers and the potential threat to the fragile mountain ecosystem in the Tibetan region. This would include the natural and anthropogenic factors responsible for its degradation in contemporary times...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #2: Retelling the Tale of Two Democracies: How Shifting Urban-Rural Dynamics Shaped Thailand’s 2023 General Election. Thailand’s 2023 general election reveals a political landscape undergoing significant transformation, where the traditional Bangkok-versus-countryside political dichotomy has given way to more nuanced urban-rural electoral dynamics unfolding within individual provinces and constituencies.As urbanization spreads across Thailand, political candidates adapt their campaign strategies to appeal to voters across the urban-rural divide in their constituencies, leveraging the resources and competitive advantages that come with their party affiliation...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #1: Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia: A Survey of Undergraduates in Six Countries. Youths in Southeast Asia have been active in making their voices heard in politics and in society, both online and offline. However, comparative studies on their civic engagement across the region remain wanting. This pilot study, conducted by the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme (RSCS) at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, gathers insights from educated youths across selected Southeast Asian countries. Between August and October 2024, the team surveyed undergraduates from six Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam...

  

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

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New War in the South China Sea -  Framing China's Unrestricted Warfare and the Role of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, December 2024. China’s gray zone campaigns in the South China Sea (SCS) are characterized by incremental advances that do not directly cause war but aggregate tensions to shift the status quo in favor of Chinese territorial claims. These advances include constructing Chinese facilities in uninhabited or unhabitable areas and using non-militarized coercions to establish control over maritime territories and enhance China’s national interests. China’s gray zone campaign began in 1987 when UNESCO requested China's assistance to build an observation outpost in Fiery Cross Reef...

  

EWC

The Case for US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue, December 2024. For over half a century, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have relied on US extended deterrence, including its “nuclear umbrella,” for their security. However, their confidence in America’s commitment to its bilateral alliances has been shaken in recent years as the two countries face increasing threats from nuclear-armed neighbors, China, Russia, and North Korea, formally the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK). Despite Washington’s repeated attempts to denuclearize the DPRK through offers of economic assistance and diplomatic rapprochement, the DPRK continues to build up an arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons..

  

EWC

The United States and Indo-Pacific Must Lead the Way on Creating Indoor Air Quality Regulations, December 2024. Air pollution is the greatest environmental threat to human health today. Recent studies have shown that particulate matter air pollution is the leading contributor to the global disease burden and shortens the average person’s lifespan by 1.8 years. It was also the second leading cause of global mortality. Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been linked to a wide range of adverse health effects, including lung cancer, stroke, low birth weight, and reduced cognitive function...

  

EWC

The Economics of Revoking Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for China, December 2024. The United States grants nearly every country in the world normal trade relations, née most favored nation, status. However, political pressure has been building to strip China of this treatment. Yet, recent modeling suggests that revoking permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) from China would not deliver economic benefits to the United States. Instead, it would have the opposite effect compared to what its proponents seek. Starting in 1979, the United States moved China from Column 2 of the tariff schedule, the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, to Column 1, most favored nation. Each year, Congress voted to maintain this status. In 2000, in connection to China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United States granted China PNTR status, ending the practice of annual Congressional votes..

  

EWC

Whither Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal? December 2024. In less than two months of student protests, Bangladesh, a partly free democracy, has plunged into a phase of serious political uncertainty that has not been seen since 2007 when the then Bangladeshi army chief launched a military coup. The Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has fled to India, leaving behind a country plagued by violence, lawlessness, and vandalism. A new interim government has taken shape, led by Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize winner for revolutionizing Bangladesh’s rural banking system. The 17-member interim government is comprised largely of technocrats, military officials, activists, and leaders of the student movement...

  

EWC

Navigating the Shift -  Is China Losing Its Grip on Africa? December 2024. In the first week of September, as African leaders convened in Beijing for the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), it became increasingly clear that Africa is growing disillusioned with China. On the surface, the summit appeared as significant as ever, with 51 African heads of state in attendance and a $51 billion investment pledge from China for the next three years. While this reflects China’s continued commitment, a closer look reveals troubling issues beneath the surface. For instance, of the $51 billion pledged, only $10 billion constitutes new investment. This amount is relatively modest over three years, especially compared to the $8 billion the US annually allocates in humanitarian aid...

  

EWC

COFA 2023 Emerges as a Vital Lifeline for the Marshall Islands National Climate Adaptation Effort, December 2024. The Compact of Free Association (COFA) between the United States and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) provides economic assistance, access to US social programs, and guaranteed defense provisions in exchange for US military access to the strategic Kwajalein Atoll. While the partnership allows the United States to maintain a significant presence in the Pacific, critical for regional security and broader geopolitical interests, it also traditionally provides the RMI with financial support for infrastructure, education, and healthcare, alongside granting certain rights, such as migration privileges to the United States.
The 2023 Compact renewal marks a significant shift in how the agreement tackles climate change, reflecting both the RMI’s vulnerability to rising sea levels and the US strategic interest in the Pacific...

  

EWC

Pacific Island Nations and Japan's Role, December 2024. Japan hosted the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) from July 16 to July 18, 2024, bringing together leaders and officials from 18 countries and regions in the South Pacific. Established in 1997, the summit has been held every three years. Japan and the Pacific Island nations have had a deep historical relationship. After World War I, Japan administered what are now the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia as the “South Sea Islands” under a mandate from the League of Nations. Japan established Nan'yo Cho (Territorial Government of the South Seas) in Koror, Palau, in 1922 and engaged in a variety of projects through private companies, including developing the island, encouraging Japanese immigration, building sugar refineries, liquor factories, and constructing railways...

  

EWC

Partnership of Convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China Convergence, December 2024. The development of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base has caused concern in the United States and elsewhere regarding its potential to become a Chinese military outpost. This concern is set to grow as the Chinese-supported upgrade of the base nears completion at the end of 2024. There can be little doubt that China is reinforcing its military presence and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet Western partners have often raised their concerns with Phnom Penh in a counterproductive way, failing to understand the factors motivating Cambodia to seek deeper defence ties with China. By understanding Cambodia’s threat perceptions and the influence of the kingdom’s domestic politics on its defence and foreign policies, Western partners will be better able to balance China’s influence in Cambodia...

  

Lowy

Looking Through a Pacific Islands Lens: Access, Accountability, and Alignment in Global Engagements, December 2024. The most pressing development and security challenges facing the Pacific Islands are rooted in domestic concerns about economic resilience, law and order, corruption, and the escalating impacts of climate change. Viewed from the Pacific, geopolitical rivalries open development opportunities, but they also magnify governance weaknesses. The sharp increase in global aid and interest in the Pacific Islands is straining limited government capacity in the region. The findings of this report are drawn from interviews with more than 150 Pacific Island leaders from government, civil society, and business, canvassing the impacts of geopolitics on governance, development, and security...

  

Lowy

Cyclone Tracy: 50 years on, December 2024. This year marks a powerful milestone in Australia’s history: the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Tracy, a disaster that reshaped the nation’s approach to resilience and recovery. When the cyclone struck Darwin on Christmas Day in 1974, it killed 66 people, displaced thousands, and left the city in ruins. Yet, it also sparked an extraordinary national response that redefined how Australia prepares for and recovers from natural disasters. Darwin, once devastated, now stands as a modern, resilient city—built not just to recover, but to withstand the worst. ASPI’s new report, released in honour of this anniversary, takes a deep dive into Cyclone Tracy’s lasting impact on Australia’s disaster management. It explores how the event prompted major shifts in urban planning, building codes, and national security frameworks...

  

ASPI

Australia and South Korea: Leveraging the Strategic Potential of Cooperation in Critical Technologies, December 2024. Cooperation between Australia and the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea or the ROK) in a range of critical technology areas has grown rapidly in recent years. Underpinned by the Australia – South Korea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Cyber and Critical Technology Cooperation signed in 2021, collaboration is currently centred around emerging technologies, including next-generation telecommunications, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. Such technologies are deemed to be critical due to their potential to enhance or threaten societies, economies and national security. Most are dual- or multi-use and have applications in a wide range of sectors...

  

ASPI

Martial Law and Political Polarization: What’s in Store for South Korea? December 2024. On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared emergency martial law, shocking both the country and the rest of the world. However, the martial law was only in place for a few hours before being rescinded by the National Assembly. Yoon’s decision to impose martial law sparked protests in both civic society and the opposition, with many urging that he and his supporters accept responsibility for their actions. Following weeks of uncertainty and a lack of consistent action to deal with the fallout from the martial law debacle, the National Assembly impeached Yoon on December 14, stripping him of presidential powers while the Constitutional Court conducts an investigation...

  

ISDP

“Yizhou 夷洲” and “Liuqiu 流求” in Historical Chinese Texts: International Relations on the Northeast Asian Seas (3rd-17th Centuries), December 2024. Sun Quan 孫權, Emperor Da of the Eastern Wu, and Emperor Yang of Sui Yang Guang 楊廣 sent armies across the sea to invade Yizhou and Liuqiu between the 3rd and the 7th centuries. Since 1874, when the French sinologist Léon d’ Hervey Saint-Denys proposed the theory that Liuqiu of the past is Taiwan, giving it a close historical relationship with China, the question of whether Taiwan or Ryukyu 琉球 is the historical Liuqiu has been a significant topic of academic contention. Yizhou was brought into this discussion by the research of Ichimura Sanjirō 市村瓚次郎 in 1918, which similarly explored the question of whether Yizhou is Taiwan or Ryukyu. This paper uses the Hanyu pinyin “Liuqiu” for antiquated toponyms in historical documents, including 流求 and 流球. “Ryukyu” is commonly used to refer to 琉球, the modern formulation in use since the Ming-dynasty of China, in Western languages...

  

ISDP

The Convergence of Disinformation: Examining Russia and China’s Partnership in the Digital Age, December 2024. The spread of disinformation has been a longstanding issue since the establishment of communication between societies. It has been used as a tool to spread propaganda and deceive adversaries in the political and intelligence sphere for centuries. In modern times, the internet has provided extensive opportunities to spread misinformation and manipulate information on a global scale. Western liberal democratic states, due to their open societies, have been heavily targeted by adversaries aiming to cause political turmoil, distrust, and instability through the effective use of disinformation and manipulation of information campaigns. The digital age has ushered in an era where the manipulation of information has become a potent, and easily accessible, tool in the arsenal of statecraft...

  

ISDP

Central Asia in the Energy Transition, December 2024. The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.

 

ISDP

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q1, January 2025. Compared to the 3.0% economic growth in the first half of 2024, changes in consumption patterns among Hong Kong residents and shifts in travel patterns among mainland tourists have respectively resulted in weaker local private consumption expenditure and lower-than-expected improvements in tourism-related service exports. Economic growth slowed in the second half of 2024, with a 1.8% growth recorded in 24Q3. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 24Q4, with an estimated annual growth of 2.5% for the year 2024 as a whole...

  

HKU

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #25: Managing State-Federal Relations: Growing Pressure on Malaysia’s Madani Administration. Federal-state relations in Malaysia today are more dynamic than ever before, with states having changed leadership several times following the 2022 general election and several state-level elections between 2020 and 2023. At present, there are seven states under the Pakatan Harapan–Barisan Nasional (PHBN) grand coalition—three with PH Chief Ministers and four with BN Chief Ministers, four states under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition comprising the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), and Sabah and Sarawak under their respective state-specific coalitions Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), the latter two of which support the unity government at the federal level...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #26: Malaysia’s Motorcycle Sector: Past and Present Possibilities in an Era of Energy Transition. Malaysia has traditionally adopted an intensive automotive industrialization model and created its own vehicles under national brands. The national car project started with Proton in 1983, and the national motorcycle project with Modenas in 1995. While policies and scholarship have focused on national car projects, the two-wheeler sector has stood in their shadow. Modenas witnessed early growth and remains a popular brand after Yamaha and Honda; it has however failed to hit export targets, owing to limited technology transfer and the inability to scale. In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the two-wheeler sector, focusing on phasing out combustion motorcycles in favour of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws). Still nascent, Malaysia’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) sector appears to prioritize an extensive model of assembly and distribution rather than the protection of home-grown brands...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #27: Building upon Deep Trust: ASEAN-Japan Ties at a Crossroads. Over the past five decades, ASEAN-Japan relations have thrived on a foundation of mutually beneficial cooperation and shared interests. This partnership has matured into a multifaceted collaboration deeply rooted in a common commitment to friendship, mutual understanding and trust across cultural, linguistic, and historical differences. The alignment between ASEAN and Japan, notably demonstrated in the Joint Statement on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific adopted at the 23rd ASEAN-Japan Summit in 2020, underscores a shared interest in shaping the region’s future. While approaches and priorities may vary, both sides find common ground through a reaffirmation of key values such as an open rules-based order and a multilateral trading system...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #28: Autonomy in Sarawak and Sabah: Different Paths and Diverging Outcomes. The formation of Malaysia in 1963, governed by the Malaysian Agreement 1963 (MA63), was a defining moment for Sabah and Sarawak. Despite joining the larger component of Peninsular Malaysia, MA63 was designed to: safeguard the rights and autonomy of the two Borneo states; ensure their distinct cultural identities and; grant them more self-governance than that enjoyed by other states in the federation. However, as federal centralization efforts intensified over time, many of these safeguards were gradually eroded. Despite initial similarities, Sabah and Sarawak have taken very different paths in asserting their autonomy. Sarawak, with its deep-rooted history of self-governance and strong leadership, has skillfully navigated federal relations and maintained a significant degree of autonomy...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #29: Online Campaign Narratives in Thailand’s 2023 General Election: An Ecosystem Analysis. After almost a decade of semi-authoritarian rule and a series of tumultuous political incidents, Thailand was ready for a reboot. The elections in May 2023 served as the light at the end of the tunnel for voters. Yet, political dramas continued as the Move Forward Party (MFP), the winner of the popular vote, failed to form a government and eventually was rejected from the ruling coalition entirely. Anyway, this paper is not so much about ousting a party elected by the people; rather, it seeks to explore the pathways of persuasion employed by political parties in Thailand’s pivotal 2023 general election. While it is clear that parties employ both online and on-ground tactics to reach voters, we are particularly interested in the use of social media for campaigning...

  

ISEAS

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