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April 2024 Current Topics

  

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Mind the Gap: Ambition Versus Delivery in China’s BRI Megaprojects in Southeast Asia, March 2024. China has become Southeast Asia’s largest infrastructure financing partner. Yet there is an enormous gap between what Beijing promises and what it has delivered, amounting to more than $50 billion in unfulfilled project financing with more than half of this reflecting projects that have either been cancelled, downsized, or otherwise seem unlikely to proceed. The reasons for this gap include China’s almost exclusive focus on financing ambitious megaprojects especially prone to problems and delays but also political instability in partner countries, weak stakeholder consultation, and increasingly stranded fossil fuel projects...

  

Lowy

Papua New Guinea’s Fiscal Decentralisation: A Way Forward, March 2024. Fiscal decentralisation in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has been a contentious topic for much of the country’s history. PNG has had several attempts at decentralising fiscal responsibilities, without much success in improving governance or service delivery. This is concerning, given sub-national funding has increased in the past decade. Governance has deteriorated over time as more responsibilities and funds are channelled to lower levels of government, including through unaccountable transfers to members of parliament (MPs) to use at their discretion. Government effectiveness and service delivery have suffered as a result, leading to poor development outcomes. This paper examines the weaknesses in the decentralisation process and how these mechanisms can be strengthened...

  

Lowy

The Trade Routes Vital to Australia’s Economic Security, March 2024. A recurrent theme in Australia’s defence strategy has been our reliance on and need to defend Australia’s trade routes in a globalised world. The vulnerability of Australia’s limited stockpiles of critical goods and its concentrated sources of supply have driven military capability and planning for decades and remain a justification for strategic investments. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review argued that the danger of any power threatening to invade the Australian continent was remote, but that an adversary could implement military coercion at a distance with threats against our trade and supply routes. With limited resources and finite defence capability, yet vast interests at sea, it’s important that Australian security and economic planning is trained on the most critical pain points in our sea lines of communication. Strategy and planning must derive from up-to-date and accurate data about what we trade, via which routes, and to and from which specific locations...

  

ASPI

Deterring an Attack on Taiwan: Policy Options for India and Other Non-belligerent State, March 2024. India has a vital role to play in deterring China from unifying Taiwan by military force, a new Australian Strategic Policy Institute report finds, highlighting New Delhi’s significant economic, diplomatic, legal and strategic narrative levers. The report looks beyond traditional thinking on military preparations to dissuade Beijing from taking the island by force and offers six ways for India, with its great strategic and economic weight, to “help shape Beijing’s calculus away from the use of force”. The author writes that the use of such long-term measures is vital to New Delhi’s own interests, as the economic and regional security impacts of a major war would be devastating for India itself.  India and other “non-belligerent states” could apply a range of measures to persuade Beijing that the time is not right for a military attack...

  

ASPI

EU-Thailand FTA Negotiations: IUU Fishing and Human Rights Remain Obstacles, March 2024. Thailand’s fishing industry, which at its height saw as many as 200,000 migrant workers from neighboring Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia caught in a brutal system of abuse, withered global criticism until eventually, the European Union (EU) issued a “yellow card” to Thailand aiming to crack down on both systemic abuse and illegally caught fish ending up in European supermarkets. With a semi-democratic government replacing the military-backed establishment that ruled Thailand for nearly a decade, negotiations for a mutually desired free trade agreement (FTA) have resumed. However, as the new Srettha Thavisin government seeks fast economic remedies to a flagging economy, reforms to its fishing industry may come undone, compromising FTA talks and putting the Kingdom again under international scrutiny...

  

ISDP

Trade, Connectivity and Supply Chains in EU-India Relations, February 2024. In the decade and a half since 2007 when the EU and India first started their FTA negotiations, the world economic order has undergone a sea change. During that period, Europe has also sought to position itself as a strategic actor seeking to create a secure and rules-based Indo-Pacific through its 2021 Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific (SCIP). The release of the Global Gateway strategy in December 2021 holds the potential to leverage China’s increasingly controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — Italy’s recent withdrawal from the project constitutes another major blow to the venture. Relying on partner states like India to be a ‘gateway’ to Asia’s infrastructure markets is a natural evolution of the EU’s focus on the region. Proof of this is the MoU signed by the EU and India, among others, as a prelude to the launch of IMEC in September 2023...

  

ISDP

Report of the Webinar on “SOUTH KOREA, INDIA, AND THE EMERGING QUAD PLUS CALCULUS”, February 2024. The webinar addressed several questions: Where does Seoul’s engagement with the Indo-Pacific stand and where does the Quad feature therein? What are South Korea’s reasons for seeking greater cooperation with the Quad? What shape would South Korea’s cooperation with the Quad take? Would it emerge as a new ‘Quint’ platform or as a more flexible and ad hoc ‘Quad Plus’ format? What are the prospects for India-Korea cooperation in the Indo-Pacific? Considering their bilateral cooperation, what are the prospects for both countries to promote and enhance minilateral formats of cooperation in the region, particularly about the Quad? How can we envision a strategic convergence between India and South Korea in Indo-Pacific minilateral frameworks? In other words, what other minilateral forums could set this example for quad-plus format cooperation? Please read the report of this webinar here.

  

ISDP

Issues and Trends in U.S. Presidential Election 2024. The U.S. presidential election, like national elections in most democracies, is mostly fought and won on domestic issues that have a direct bearing on the day-to-day lives of the American people. Foreign policy issues, while still significant for a global power like the United States, is largely peripheral and episodic in terms of influencing voting patterns. Nevertheless, more than any other election in the world, the process and result of the U.S. presidential election is keenly watched and has global repercussions. From the intra-party primaries to the presidential nominations, and then to the final verdict in November, candidates will have to grapple with a host of issues, based on which American voters will elect the next U.S. president. As the election season heats up, candidates will become more hyperbolic in asserting their best plans to save American democracy at home, and American leadership abroad...

  

ISDP

South Korea-India Ties: Between Bilateralism, Minilateralism, and Multilateralism, March 2024. In the context of the Indo-Pacific construct, the expanding gaps in global governance, the rise in minilateralism, the need to reinvigorate regional and global multilateralism, and the imperative to strengthen the rules-based liberal international order, it is important to look at the evolving trajectory of ties between India and South Korea, both Asian giants. This paper first discusses the contours of the ROK’s Indo-Pacific strategy, especially through the India angle. It then examines South Korea’s importance in India’s foreign policy and regional/global goals through the prism of India’s relationship with the Quad partners. It also looks at their congruence and cooperation in regional, global organizations and platforms such as the United Nations (UN), ASEAN, the Group of Twenty (G20), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). Finally, it explores the prospects of cooperation through select minilateral forums.

  

ISDP

Navigating BRI and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Challenge for South Asian Small States, March 2024. This paper explores the intersection of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) among South Asian Small States, analyzing the interplay between the two initiatives and their implications for regional geopolitics. Specifically, it aims to elucidate the synergies and conflicts between the two initiatives, assess the strategic significance of South Asian Small States, including Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, within this framework, and examine the implications for regional stability and national sovereignty. It highlights the complex interplay between BRI and IPS in the South Asian Small States, characterized by economic opportunities, geopolitical tensions, and strategic maneuvering...

  

ISDP

Can UAE become an Indo-Pacific Sea Power? March 2024. Amidst the intensified race over connectivity in the Indo-Pacific in a competitive infrastructure marketplace, the UAE is positioning itself to play an important role through strategic investments in ports abroad and extensive maritime engagements. Having established a strong presence in the Horn of Africa through investment in port infrastructure, the UAE is now keen to expand its regional influence in the South Asia sub-region of the Indian Ocean, and beyond into the larger Indo-Pacific. This issue brief outlines the emergence of the UAE as a sea power through such investments while highlighting how the Emirates’ limited participation in the governance of the Indo-Pacific is limiting its influence. It makes a case for the UAE to take a more proactive role in complementing its economic investments with participation in regional governance initiatives to help secure a truly free and open Indo-Pacific.

  

ISDP

Needed, a Framework to Protect Undersea Cables, March 2024. In the data-driven world we live in, submarine cables are the arteries that connect nation-states and their people in literally every human activity, including trade, commerce, entertainment, and social interactions. Any interference in that flow of data can disrupt lives and livelihoods and compromise the capacity of nation-states to trade, communicate, and defend their interests. There are few instruments in public international law available to nation-states for the protection of submarine cables vital to their national interest. However, private international law and, in particular, commercial contracts may provide the basis for a network of contracts that may provide the legal framework required to defend the network of submarine cables...

  

ISDP

India-Japan-Philippines: A Strategic Maritime Trilateral or More, March 2024. Regional states like India, Japan, and the Philippines have been seeking cooperative solutions with other middle powers that can both counter the Chinese influence and fulfill other economic as well as traditional and non-traditional security objectives. Against this scenario of evolving geopolitics, is there merit in an India-Japan-Philippines trilateral? Can it play a strategic role in the Indo-Pacific maritime domain and keep China in check? Can such grouping enhance the scope of “third country” partnerships and boost the multilateralism espoused by ASEAN? This Focus Asia paper aims to address such questions by exploring the interconnectedness between the Philippines, India, and Japan through both the bilateral and regional lens, looking at the trajectory of the recent high-level interactions...

  

ISDP

The State of Southeast Asia: 2024 Survey Report.  The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute reveals that Southeast Asia’s top preoccupations are with unemployment, climate change, and intensifying economic tensions between major powers. The Israel-Hamas conflict is the region’s top geopolitical concern, while China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice if the region were forced to align itself in the ongoing US-China rivalry.

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #7: ASEAN Post-2025: Reimagining the ASEAN Economic Community.  ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) building is a long journey. For continued relevance and impact, the AEC must remain dynamic while taking into consideration evolving contexts and emerging opportunities and challenges. Notable progress has been made under the two AEC Blueprints (2015 and 2025), particularly in laying down the frameworks for regional economic integration and community building. Nonetheless, gaps remain in implementation, calling for a more streamlined but result-oriented agenda and stronger institutional coordination. Today, the AEC is faced with a markedly different context and unprecedented challenges resulting from a poly-crisis, involving geo-economic fragmentation, supply chain restructuring, and climactic changes. Without adjustment, ASEAN’s pillar and sector-centric approach can be expected to fall short in effectively responding to these challenges...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #6: Prosperity or Predicament? Decoding Certification Challenges in Malaysia’s Palm Oil Industry. Oil palm was brought to Malaysia from West Africa as part of British colonial agricultural development initiatives, but the refining of crude palm oil only began in the 1970s as part of the move by the Malaysian government to industrialize the country’s agrarian economy. Malaysia is the world’s second-largest producer of palm oil, after Indonesia. Both countries account for about 85 per cent of total exports. Incidentally, smallholders produce about 40 per cent of the total output of palm oil in Malaysia. The palm oil industry is mired in controversy. Global campaigns originating in Europe and the US have branded the crop the biggest cause of deforestation, with proposed bans to follow in December 2024...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #5: How Thailand’s Move Forward Party’s Fandom Strategy Shaped the 2023 General Election. The concept of political fandom, the state of being fans of a politician or of a political party, played a crucial role during Thailand’s General Election in 2023. Fandom contributed to the popularity on social media of politicians, such as Pita Limjaroenrat, the Move Forward Party’s leader and prime ministerial candidate. The strategies involved in achieving celebrity status for politicians are varied. This paper provides a case study of the factors behind the success of Pita and the Move Forward Party and contrasts these with reasons why Pita’s key political opponents were less effective. It argues that the digital age and the transcendence of politics into pop culture, where celebrity status and fandom can drive electoral outcomes, signify a profound shift in democratic participation, political engagement and the very fabric of Thai politics...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #4: China’s Cultural Diplomacy in Indonesia: The Case of a Transnational Singing Contest. The emphasis on cultural connectivity in China’s growing presence and involvement in Southeast Asia highlights the importance China places on people-to-people exchanges as part of its global engagement strategy. The remarkable ascension of China over the recent decades has precipitated a proliferation of anti-China sentiments, particularly galvanized within the crucible of a “discourse war” with Western powers, as expressed in the latter’s “China threat” narrative. In response to such challenges, China has made substantial investments in cultural diplomacy, to augment its soft power through orchestrated global outreach initiatives...

  

ISEAS

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Escalation Risks in the Indo-Pacific: A Review for Practitioners, February 2024. The outbreak of war in the Indo-Pacific is a real possibility. Increased competition, a growing trust deficit between global and regional powers and potential miscalculations heighten the risk. There needs to be a more engaged Australian discussion on conflict-escalation risks and how they might be managed. Policymakers and leaders need to understand escalation risks as they manage Australia’s relationship with the US, China, North Korea and Australia’s key regional defence partners over coming decades. In rhetoric and in action, Australia also needs to be attentive to how the acquisition and employment of our own new capabilities—strike missiles, evolving cyber capabilities and nuclear-propelled submarines—affect strategic stability dynamics in a fast-changing world...

  

ASPI

National Resilience: Lessons for Australian Policy From International Experience, February 2024. The strategic circumstances that Australia contemplates over the coming decades present multiple, cascading and concurrent crises. Ensuring a safe and secure Australia, able to withstand the inevitable shocks that we’ll face into the future, will require a more comprehensive approach to strategy than we’ve adopted over the past seven decades. We can’t rely on the sureties of the past. The institutions, policies and architectures that have supported the nation to manage such crises in our history are no longer fit for purpose. The report highlights lessons drawn from international responses to crisis, to assist policymakers build better responses to the interdependent and hyperconnected challenges that nations face. The report brings together the disciplines of disaster management, defence strategy and national security to examine what an integrated national approach to resilience looks like, and how national resilience thinking can help Australia build more effective and more efficient responses to crisis and change...

  

ASPI

2024 Global Diplomacy Index. China and the United States lead the world, by some margin, in the size of their diplomatic networks. Beijing tops the Index with 274 posts in its global network, followed closely by Washington with 271. China’s rise to the top spot was rapid. In 2011, Beijing lagged behind Washington by 23 diplomatic posts. By 2019, China had surpassed the United States in having the world’s largest diplomatic network. In 2021, China pulled further ahead, leading the United States by eight posts, but by 2023, the gap narrowed again to China ahead by just three posts. Since China assumed the lead, both countries have largely plateaued, with China down two posts overall compared to 2019 (276), and the United States fluctuating slightly to return to 2016 levels (271)...

  

Lowy

Overcoming Digital Threats to Democracy, February 2024. Many of the challenges that digital technologies present stem not only from what they can do, but how they are governed. Most of the digital platforms used in democracies are controlled by a handful of multinational corporations, colloquially known as “Big Tech”. The digital technologies they develop maximise the profit and interests of this handful of technology companies. But when power is concentrated in the hands of a few, there is little accountability to the public. When users do not properly understand terms of service, tracking, or privacy notices, consent cannot be fully or freely given. When terms of service are not consistently applied, there is inconsistent application of the law. And when governments enact regulation primarily based on partisan pressures and interests, the public interest is absent. All these elements combine to create a crisis of legitimacy...

  

Lowy

Geopolitics in the Pacific Islands: Playing for Advantage, February 2024. Traditional donors — Australia, France, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States — now compete with China for geopolitical influence in the Pacific Islands. Pacific Islands leaders worry this competition could lead to militarisation or “strategic manipulation”. Leaders are refusing to choose between major powers and are claiming to be “friends to all, enemies to none”. This allows Pacific Islands Countries (PICs) to leverage strategic competition for political and national advantage, as well as maximise aid. But there are limits to the “friends to all” rhetoric — not all friends share compatible values or governance systems. Some PICs, such as the US Compact states and French territories, have associations that limit their security engagements. Others, such as Papua New Guinea, have a clear preference for traditional partners to assist with security...

  

Lowy

Drought, Flood, and Rice Security in Central Thailand, March 2024. With roughly 63 percent of the country’s agricultural area allocated for rice farming, rice has long been a key food staple and export crop for Thailand. As with other crops, rice is heavily dependent on water, whether it is from precipitation or irrigation, and is also sensitive to changing temperatures. The impacts of droughts and floods on rice farming are a fundamental source of concern for Thai farmers and the government. This article focuses on the effects of droughts and floods on rice quality and quantity, as well as on farmers’ rice income and prospects for livelihood diversification. Based on our interviews with rice farmers in Uthaithani, Chainat, and Ayutthaya, droughts and floods diminish rice yields and increase incidences of crop failures, both partial and complete. They also lower the quality of rice and further depress net head rice yields by altering rice grain dimensions and moisture levels, as well as increasing the amount of cracked and immature grains...

  

EWC

Indian Ocean Security Means More Will Be Asked of US Allies, February 2024. The Indian Ocean is now the globe’s busiest and most strategically significant trade corridor, carrying two-thirds of the world’s oil shipments and a third of the world’s bulk cargo. The vulnerability of the global commons has been on display since late 2023 as Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The rebels claimed to be targeting ships based on their links to the United States or Israel to support Palestinians in the Israel-Hamas conflict. These attacks significantly disrupted international trade as the Red Sea, via the Suez Canal, offers the shortest shipping route between Asia and Europe. The response, led by the United States, saw an international coalition formed to ensure freedom of the seas as well as tailored strikes in Yemen and the seizure of a container ship with Iranian-supplied weapons bound for the Houthis...

  

EWC

Australia and the Resilient Pacific Islands, February 2024. The Pacific is Australia’s region and home—we are a member of the Pacific family and a proud founding member of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF). Australia’s priority is to ensure the Blue Pacific remains peaceful, prosperous, and equipped to respond to the challenges of our time. Australia is bringing new energy and more resources to the Pacific to help build a stronger and more united Pacific family and elevate Pacific voices on issues that matter to the region. We are committed to working in lockstep with the PIF to support Pacific priorities, guided by the Pacific Way and by ambitions articulated in the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent. We are reliable, transparent, and open, and we respect the sovereignty and the centrality of regional institutions. Over the past 12 months, Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator the Honorable Penny Wong, and Minister for International Development and the Pacific, the Honorable Pat Conroy (member of parliament)...

  

EWC

The Political Split at the Heart of Taiwan’s Struggle against Foreign Disinformation, February 2024. Taiwan’s struggle against foreign disinformation and concerns about China’s impact on its 2024 election has received much international attention recently. This issue brief examines the domestic and international politics behind Taiwan’s struggle against foreign disinformation. A significant push towards dealing with foreign disinformation has been undertaken during the eight-year rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), both in terms of strengthening democratic resilience and seeking support and cooperation from international partners. This push has launched Taiwan’s issue into the international arena, in line with the DPP’s strategy for closer cooperation with other “like-minded” democracies...

  

ISDP

Must Regulate the AI Trifecta: Security, Business, and Privacy, February 2024. The enormous amount of research and development in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies has led it to grow to a level that impacts security, business, and privacy concerns. The proliferation of artificially intelligent weaponry raises the potential for arms races, the possibility of non-state actors obtaining such weapons, and security issues. From the business lens, AI has catalyzed decision-making and operational strategies that have enabled efficiency. However, as the functioning of AI is dependent on data, deliberating privacy issues has become necessary. Discussions around AI governance are still in their infancy, which presents a chance to create frameworks for governance that encompass every step of the process, from development to deployment...

  

ISDP

Japan’s Strategic Messaging for a ‘Free and Open International Order (FOIO)’: Can It Preserve its Indo-Pacific Achievements? February 2024. The “free and open international order (jiyū de hirakareta kokusai chitsujo) based on the rule of law,” or “FOIO,” is emblematic of Japan’s overriding ideal as pursued across multiple administrations. Introduced in early 2017 following the better-known “free and open Indo-Pacific (FOIP),” it became Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s major diplomatic message in 2023. Underpinned by the rule of law among nations, the FOIO represents the latest evolution in Japan’s attempt to preserve the existing international order amid the growing challenges posed by China and other authoritarian states...

  

ISDP

Iran and Japan Relations in a Transitional World Order, February 2024. Both the Japanese and Iranian foreign policies are under evolution. Given the changing global security environment, their foreign policy approach toward each other is continuously changing, and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy is certainly one important factor that shapes Japanese foreign policy towards Iran as well as the Middle East. Iran, on its part, is strengthening its ties with China and North Korea which is concerning for Japan. This issue brief sheds light on the mutual perception and misperception of Iran and Japan towards each other and how they aim to navigate the difficult terrain to maintain a relationship...

  

ISDP

Russia-DPRK Relations: Implications for the UNSC’s Mandate, February 2024. The burgeoning military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK poses a significant challenge to global security. The simplified characterization of the alleged arms deal as a product of converging interests between old friends overlooks the fundamental importance of geo-political dynamics and both states’ diplomatic pivot away from the liberal West as a cause for re-evaluating their bilateral relations. This issue brief argues that regardless of whether the arms deal sustains momentum beyond the Ukraine war, strengthened DPRK-Russo relations challenge the UN Security Council as the principal theater for engagement on the North Korean nuclear issue and threaten to accelerate the widening rift between liberal and autocratic spheres of influence.

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #3: Enhancing ASEAN’s Role in Critical Mineral Supply Chains. An energy transition is underway in Southeast Asia. This process is dependent on an uninterrupted supply of the minerals and metals that are essential to produce low-carbon technologies. These raw materials are termed “critical minerals” (CMs), owing to three broad features: their necessity as inputs in low-carbon technology, the lack of viable substitutes, and significant supply constraints. The demand for CMs such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements (REEs), copper, and silicon3 is expected to increase exponentially in the coming decades. To meet the global net zero target by 2050, mineral inputs will need to increase sixfold by 2040, compared to current levels. According to scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the demand for minerals used in electric vehicles (EVs) will increase thirty times compared to current levels, while mineral requirements for low-carbon energy generation will triple by 2040...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #2: China as a Rising Norm Entrepreneur: Examining GDI, GSI and GCI. Addressing a gathering at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations in March 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping talked about the concept of mankind being a community of shared future or with a common destiny. This was Xi’s first major foreign policy speech, during his first foreign visit, after taking over as president. Analytical and media discourse at the time paid little attention to this concept. Instead, much of the discussion was focused on what appeared to be the articulation of shared grievances and a convergence of objectives between China and Russia. From a policy perspective, the idea of people being a community of common destiny or shared future was rather vague. Moreover, it did not seem novel. In fact, in Chinese discourse, this concept can be traced back to the pre-Xi era...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #1: TIMOR-LESTE IN ASEAN: Is It Ready to Join?. In response to Timor-Leste’s formal application for ASEAN membership in 2011, ASEAN leaders in November 2022 finally came to an in-principle agreement to admit the country as its eleventh member and to grant Timor-Leste observer status to attend all ASEAN meetings. This follows the positive outcomes of fact-finding missions across the three ASEAN Community pillars, which noted the strong political will and commitment displayed by Timor-Leste for its accession to ASEAN. Timor-Leste has developed two key documents to help align its national laws, regulations, and policies with ASEAN’s, particularly concerning its binding agreements...

  

ISEAS

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A Renewed Philippine-United States Alliance, January 2024. In 2023, after tumultuous relations during the Duterte administration, the Philippine-United States alliance was reinvigorated under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and his “friend to all, enemy to none” foreign policy. The alliance’s strong footing is exemplified by high-level meetings and dialogues, defense cooperation, and coordination on non-traditional issues. Several high-level meetings were held in the first half of 2023. The Bilateral Strategic Dialogue set the tone for the alliance, with Washington reaffirming its commitment to Manila. This was followed by the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in April and a state visit by Marcos in May, resulting in $1.3 billion in pledges. The dialogues revolved around four main areas: reaffirming the alliance and enhancing defense relations, promoting a rules-based international order, exploring economic cooperation, and supporting green energy and environmental protection...

  

EWC

The Consequences of Taliban Policies on Human Rights in Afghanistan (August 2021–August 2023). Following the collapse of the Islamic Republic regime, the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The Taliban’s abolition of the 2004 constitution and other internal regulations has set the stage for Tali-ban fighters to engage in violent and arbitrary practices. The dismal human rights situation in Afghanistan has prompted international organizations to express serious concerns and to demand an examination of the Taliban regime’s conduct toward the Afghan people. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the repercussions of the Taliban’s policies on citizen rights, which are divided into two distinct categories: civil-political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights...

  

EWC
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EWC

Experts’ Scenarios on Russia’s Future, January 2024. For a century determinists of various persuasions claimed to be able to predict future developments. They believed that very few key economic or social indicators determined humankind’s future evolution. Nowadays all but the most diehard determinists accept that a broad range of factors contribute to the direction of change. We acknowledge that along with economic and social change, factors as diverse as the values and personalities of leaders, the dynamics of groups and bureaucracies, changing sources of energy, group and national psychology, and even changes in climate can all shape the future. These and many other factors could affect the outcome of Russia’s current war on Ukraine and developments within the Russian Republic immediately thereafter...

  

ISDP

Sino-Russian Relations, From Where – To Where, January 2024. Since 1949, relations between the Soviet Union/Russia and China have been oscillating between formal military alliances and military border clashes. In the early phases, the cooperation was beneficial for both nations. China, emerging from decades of war with a devastated economy and international isolation, needed both economic and military support and the Soviet Union as the leader of the socialist block in the world, saw an alliance with China as both natural and strategically convenient. However, with the death of Stalin relations became strained. Khrushchev´s “de-Stalinization process“ and his policy of “peaceful coexistence” with the West and a promise to President Eisenhower to stop a project to help China develop nuclear weapons, infuriated Mao. Sino-Soviet economic cooperation and trade almost came to a halt amid the ideological competition between the two countries...

  

ISDP

The Quad and Submarine Cable Protection in the Indo-Pacific: Policy Recommendations, January 2024. This policy brief analyzes the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) initiative on submarine cables in the Indo-Pacific and offers a timely roadmap as to how best to protect them. It first locates the significance of submarine cables for global connectivity and security, and then contextualizes the perception of threats to cables from malicious state or state-supported actors at a time of rising global tensions. Because of the unique challenges posed by cable vulnerabilities, including sabotage and espionage, the brief focuses on the impact of disruptions within the evolving geopolitical landscape as well as their recent securitization and provides actionable rather than aspirational recommendations for the Quad...

  

ISDP

Disaster Risk Reduction: Need for Collective Approach-Based Policy Measures, January 2024. At the beginning of 2024, a massive earthquake struck Japan killing several people and displacing even more. However, the earthquake was only one instance of the various natural disasters experienced the world over in the year gone by, ranging from wildfires in North America to droughts in parts of Europe. Climate change has influenced the intensity and frequency of such disasters – causing immense economic damage. The effect of disasters is further amplified in regions already grappling with prolonged internal and cross-boundary conflicts...

  

ISDP

Bangladesh: Strategies and Requisites for Growth, January 2024. Over the past decade, Bangladesh has achieved an impressive annual growth rate of around 7 percent, with the GDP soaring from USD 18.14 billion in 1980 to USD 460.2 billion in 2022. The country is set to become the 20th largest economy by 2037. This issue brief maps the country’s economic ascent, which has led to substantial improvements in social indicators, including a rise in life expectancy, a significant reduction in under-five mortality, and strides in education and gender empowerment. It explores Bangladesh’s proactive approach to regional partnerships, particularly with India, and its efforts to diversify global engagements, including collaborations with Japan and Europe. Highlighting Dhaka’s challenges, such as the overreliance on the textile sector, energy crises, and geopolitical complexities affecting economic growth, it emphasizes the need for Bangladesh’s democracy to maintain social harmony, political stability, and gender empowerment to attract foreign investment and sustain economic growth.

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2023 #19: Managing China-Singapore Relations Amid US-China Rivalry. China-Singapore relations have come a long way since diplomatic ties were established in 1990. At that time, China needed friends and foreign investments, and Singapore played a role in befriending Beijing and bringing in investments from abroad. The West had then ostracized Beijing due to the 1989 Tiananmen incident. Today, a much stronger China faces a somewhat similar hostile external environment. Most notable is the escalating tensions between China and the United States, which has created a unique geopolitical context that necessitates a careful examination of the future trajectory of China-Singapore ties. As both nations navigate this complex geopolitical environment, they must adapt and respond to evolving circumstances so that they can continue to reap mutual benefits...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2023 #20: The Debate on the Ba‘Alawi Lineage in Indonesia: Highlighting Weaknesses in the Genealogical Records. The Ba‘Alawi ( بَاعَلَوِي or the descendants of ‘Alawi) trace their lineage from Prophet Muhammad through Ahmad Al-Muhajir who migrated from Basra, Iraq, to Hadramaut, Yemen, in 320H. They thus have their ancestral roots in the valley of Hadhramaut. Since the early nineteenth century, large numbers of people left Yemen and traversed the Indian Ocean, resulting in a Hadhrami diaspora across South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Africa (Ho 2010, p. xxii). They played an important role in commercial activity and the spread of Islam, and over the years became well-respected for their religious knowledge. In Southeast Asia, some of them even attained political influence through marriage to local ruling families. Most Hadhramis in the region are concentrated in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore...

  

ISEAS

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High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2024Q1, January 2024. Hong Kong’s economy has reverted to a growth rate of 2.2% in the first half of 2023. Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2023 with a 4.1% increase in 23Q3. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% in 23Q4. It is projected to grow by 3.3% for the year 2023 as a whole. Hong Kong’s imports and exports are expected to reverse the decline in 2023 and grow by 5.8% and 5.5% in the first quarter of 2024 respectively, partly due to a lower base of comparison. The job market is anticipated to remain stable, with an unemployment rate maintained at 2.9%. Elevated interest rates hold back consumer and investment sentiment, leading to a global economic slowdown in the first half of 2024. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 24Q1. Hong Kong’s economic growth is projected to be between 1.9% to 2.7% for the year 2024.

  

HKU

Enhancing Australia’s Taiwan Ties, December 2023. Australia’s economic and political engagement with the self-governed island of Taiwan has been constrained by inconsistent and tentative policy under diplomatic pressure from Beijing. Economically, Australian interests have been hurt by China’s so-far successful effort to stop Canberra pursuing a free trade agreement with Taipei. Politically, Australia has contributed to Taipei’s international isolation by not more fully taking advantage of the freedom to manoeuvre granted by the ambiguities of its one-China policy. If left unchecked, this deepening international isolation could eventually endanger both Taiwan’s de facto independence and its liberal democracy...

  

Lowy

Shadow Play, December 2023. ASPI has recently observed a coordinated inauthentic influence campaign originating on YouTube that’s promoting pro-China and anti-US narratives in an apparent effort to shift English-speaking audiences’ views of those countries’ roles in international politics, the global economy and strategic technology competition. This new campaign (which ASPI has named ‘Shadow Play’) has attracted an unusually large audience and is using entities and voice overs generated by artificial intelligence (AI) as a tactic that enables broad reach and scale. It focuses on promoting a series of narratives including China’s efforts to ‘win the US–China technology war’ amid US sanctions targeting China. It also includes a focus on Chinese and US companies, such as pro-Huawei and anti-Apple content...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 8, December 2023. Building on previous volumes, this edition discusses the opportunities and intersections between improved national defence and capability development in northern Australia, regional economic growth, and enhanced engagement with the Indo-Pacific region. Similar to previous editions, Volume 8 contains a wide range of articles sourced from a diverse pool of expert contributors, writing on topics such as: northern Australia’s critical role for national defence, how Defence can improve operational capability and re-design its strategy in the north, critical minerals and rare earths, national disaster preparedness, and economic opportunity in northern Australia...

  

ASPI

Building the India-Japan Partnership: Strategic Compulsions and Indo-Pacific Imperatives, December 2023. Over the past two decades, Japan and India have witnessed a transformative shift in bilateral ties that has seeped into their already officially established “Special Strategic and Global Partnership.” However, even as this growth remains unprecedented, the need for deepening their three-tiered partnership—bilateral, regional, and global— on multilateral concerns such as traditional and non-traditional security, defense, trade and investment, energy, technological innovation, and economy has never been more urgent, nor the scope so immense. This publication reviews diverse aspects of the ever-growing India-Japan comprehensive partnership in four key areas—namely strategic essence; trade, investment, and economic security; energy and digital partnership; and Indo-Pacific connects—highlighting the opportunities and challenges, as well as providing implementable recommendations for going forward.

  

ISDP

The CSDDD Effect: Assessing the Impact of the EU’s Impending Corporate Sustainability Mandate on Japanese Companies, December 2023. This issue brief explores the significant impact of the European Union (EU)’s expected Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) on global corporate responsibility, with a specific focus on its implications for Japanese companies. The CSDDD, which will mandate that companies conduct human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) across their value chains, extends the influence of the EU’s regulatory policy to companies well beyond the borders of Europe. Japanese companies, which have traditionally been less integrated in HREDD practices, now face a critical need to align their corporate policies with these new standards to maintain their global business relevance...

  

ISDP

Chinese Investments in Malaysia: Synthesizing the Evidence Ten Years into the BRI, December 2023. The launch of the BRI in 2013 raised the interests of Chinese investors in Malaysia. However, views of the BRI in Malaysia are often based on a few mega projects, which are financed by federal loans. This lends a misleading view that Chinese investments are motivated by geoeconomic interests alone rather than commercial interests. This study synthesizes the existing evidence on Chinese investments in Malaysia, ten years into the BRI, using an Antecedent, FDI Decision and Outcome (ADO) framework. It seeks to shed light on the nature, drivers, and motivations as well as some of the outcomes of these investments. It is found that Chinese investments in Malaysia are diverse in terms of sectoral coverage, drivers, and entry modes while the long-term impact on technology transfer remains unclear.

  

ISEAS

2022 Singapore Asset Management Survey. 2022 presented a challenging environment for global investors, with global AUM falling by 10%. Against this backdrop, Singapore’s asset management industry also declined by 10% to S$4.9 trillion (or US$3.65 trillion1). The healthy net inflows partially offset the decline in valuation that contributed to the drop in AUM. Singapore remains a key gateway for global asset managers and investors to tap the region’s growth opportunities, with 76% of AUM sourced from outside Singapore, and 88% of total AUM invested outside the country. Within Asia Pacific, 20% of AUM was invested in Southeast Asia...

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2023. The Dec 2023 Survey was sent out on 22 November 2023 to a total of 26 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 25 respondents (a response rate of 96%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts. The Singapore economy expanded by 1.1% year-on-year in Q3 2023. This was slightly above the respondents’ median forecast of 1.0% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 1.8% year-on-year in Q4 2023...

  

MAS

2023 Singapore Corporate Debt Market Development. Global bond issuances volume decreased in 2022 due to an acceleration in rate hikes to rein in inflation. Over the same period, annual issuance volume of Asia (Ex-Japan) G-3 bonds halved to USD 192 billion as compared to USD 391 billion in 2021. Issuers and investors continued to keep a close eye on the interest rates environment with corporate issuers reducing financing amidst greater volatility in bond markets as interest rates climbed, or opting for shorter-term financing as an alternative...

  

MAS

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