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We index full-text journals with open access platforms in our Asia-Studies Full-Text Plus section. Here is the list of journals available.

  
 

 

  
 

 

  
 

 

  
 

November 2024 Current Topics

  

Source

 

 

  

 

The Case for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank, October 2024. Eighty years ago at Bretton Woods, leading countries gathered to design an international financial architecture needed to sustain a broadly open world economy and global financial stability. The institutions that emerged remain important, but they are struggling to rise to the modern-day challenges posed by climate change and economic insecurity. The world faces a multi-trillion-dollar financing gap to reinvigorate stalling global development and create diversified green supply chains to enable a secure clean energy transition for all countries...

  

Lowy

Nusantara: Climate Dilemmas of a “Green” Capital City in Indonesia, October 2024. Even before Indonesia’s independence, its leaders had drafted plans to relocate the capital city. Proponents gave various reasons at different times, but with Jakarta’s stifling traffic and perennial flooding, the government is now translating visions of relocation into action. Construction of the new capital, Nusantara, is already underway in East Kalimantan province. Nusantara is an ambitious and symbolic nation-building project that positions Indonesia as an increasingly confident player on the international stage...

  

EWC

Indo-Pacific Lens on the Arctic: How US Partners in Asia View Arctic Security and Governance, August 2024. Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and India joined the Arctic Council as observers in 2013, concurrently with China, but their perspectives have not received sufficient attention. This paper examines how US partners Japan, South Korea, India, and Singapore view their role in Arctic governance and security and what this means for the United States. From the perspective of Indo-Pacific states seeking to access Arctic shipping routes and resources and participate in Arctic science and governance, the Russia-administered Northern Sea Route (NSR) was a crucial gateway until 2022...

  

EWC
Latest Asia Pacific Bulletin series:  

EWC

Why the World Can’t Afford to Keep Taiwan Out of Interpol, October 2024. Taiwan’s exclusion from the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) presents a critical gap in the global effort to combat transnational crime. As criminal networks become more sophisticated, particularly in areas such as cybercrime, human trafficking, and terrorism, seamless international cooperation is essential. Despite Taiwan’s strategic importance in the Asia-Pacific region and its advanced law enforcement capabilities, it remains excluded from Interpol’s systems, creating a vulnerability in the global security framework...

  

ISDP

Elevating Democracy via Transatlantic Collaboration, October 2024. In collaboration with the U.S. Embassy in Stockholm, the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) organized a series of conference events from March 11 to 14, 2024, held in various locations including Stockholm, Gothenburg, and a final closed-door roundtable in Luleå with local stakeholders. The goal was to raise awareness and encourage dialogue on the challenges posed by authoritarian regimes exploiting international research collaborations and corporate ownership for illiberal purposes...

  

ISDP

BRICS: Evolving into a Vehicle for Inclusive Multilateralism? October 2024. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is a group of major emerging economies that seeks to reform global governance and foster alternatives to established financial institutions. First convened in 2009, BRICS has gradually expanded its cooperation areas beyond economics to include various new sectors, such as security, energy, infrastructure, science, technology, digital economy, healthcare, and green development. BRICS operates as a flexible intergovernmental organization without a permanent secretariat or founding charter, and functions through consensus-based decision-making, guided by implicit, semi-codified internal rules...

  

ISDP

Structural Transformation and Inclusive Growth in Cambodia: Country Diagnostic and Product Space Analyses, October 2024. Cambodia aims to become an upper middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. This study provides a country diagnostic analysis of the Cambodian economy. An empirical analysis based on product space is carried out to identify product diversification and future growth opportunities to guide Cambodia’s structural transformation path. By addressing the key constraints to intra-sectoral diversification, Cambodia would be better placed to navigate the inherent trade-offs between capabilities, complexity and opportunity gain.

  

ISEAS

Digital Capacity Building for Own-Account Workers in Singapore, October 2024. Own-account workers are self-employed persons who engage in a trade or business without employing any paid workers. Own-account workers are not only delivery riders and private-hire car drivers but are also real estate and property agents, information and communication technology professionals, science and engineering professionals, and freelancers in the arts, media, creative, entertainment and sports industries. Without a singular long-term employer that can help to facilitate or support their upskilling, own-account workers are left to navigate the complexities of upgrading their skillsets to remain competitive in the workforce on their own. Despite own-account workers making up a third of the global workforce, research on the role technology plays in their work and their digital upskilling needs remains scarce...

  

IPS

International Vertical Equity in Global — An Asian Perspective, September 2024. Rising multipolarity is seen to be leading to a fracturing of the global economy, which has hitherto been characterised by efficiency, multilateralism and a level playing field. Amongst many responses, some have focused on the expertise and incentives that small states might have to keep the global system together. For example, it has been argued “small states can create effective (if restricted) multilateral groupings that are either plurilateral or minilateral, but that can seamlessly transition to open, inclusive multilateralism when interests again align”...

  

IPS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
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ADB
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ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

October 2024

  

 

 

 

  

 

Asian Development Outlook, September 2024 (Full Report, Highlights). Technology exporters are particularly benefiting from higher global semiconductor sales driven by the artificial intelligence boom. Inflation in the region is expected to ease further, supported by the lagged effects of previous monetary policy tightening and declining global food and energy prices. However, risks loom, including potential increases in protectionism depending on the outcome of the United States presidential election, escalating geopolitical tensions, further weakness in the property market in the People’s Republic of China, and adverse weather and climatic conditions...

  

ADB

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2024Q4, October 2024. Hong Kong’s economic growth moderated from 4.3% growth in the second half of 2023 to 3.0% growth in the first half of 2024. Changes in consumer behavior and the surge in consumption by Hong Kong residents abroad have led to reduced private consumption expenditure and increased imports of services. Hong Kong's Economy is expected to slow from 3.3% in the 24Q2 to 2.0% in the 24Q3. The job market remains tight, with the unemployment rate is projected to 3.0% in 24Q4. Visitor arrivals in Hong Kong continue to rise, with number of visitors up by 9.2% year-on-year in August 2024, driving up Hong Kong tourism-related service exports...

  

HKU

2024 Asia Power Index Key Findings Report. The annual Asia Power Index — launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018 — measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The project maps out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time. The Index ranks 27 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment — its scope reaching as far west as Pakistan, as far north as Russia, and as far into the Pacific as Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. The 2024 edition is the most comprehensive assessment of the changing distribution of power in Asia to date. It includes Timor-Leste for the first time, reflecting its growing importance as a result of likely accession to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in future years...

  

Lowy

A Climate Loss and Damage Fund That Works, September 2024. Loss and Damage resulting from climate change presents a unique global challenge that affects vulnerable countries the most, and requires a rethinking of the traditional approach to accessing climate finance. In response, a Fund for responding to Loss and Damage has been established under the United Nations. To succeed, the Fund should learn from the key shortcomings of other climate funds. The new Fund for responding to Loss and Damage should adopt a clear allocation mechanism based on recipient countries’ vulnerability, emission contributions, and climate change policies. Loss and Damage solutions are unlikely to result in clear financial returns...

  

Lowy

The Australia-US Alliance from a Thai Perspective - An Unbreakable or Unpinnable Partnership? August 2024. The Australia-United States alliance—as enunciated in the ANZUS Treaty in 1951—is now opined as “unbreakable,” which is part and parcel of the latest trilateral arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, known as AUKUS. First and foremost, it is a normative alliance, upholding a shared vision of a liberal rules-based world order in the Indo-Pacific. Secondly, it signifies that Washington and Canberra are prepared to act in unison to maintain regional peace and order. Conventional wisdom in Southeast Asia holds that AUKUS, primarily aimed at providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines...

  

EWC

Vietnamese Perspective on the Significance of the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asian Security, August 2024. The United States and Australia have maintained a robust alliance for decades, underpinned by shared strategic interests and values. This enduring partnership has played a crucial role in shaping the security landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. As Southeast Asia faces an increasingly complex security environment, marked by great power rivalry and transnational challenges, the region has a significant stake in the trajectory of the US-Australia alliance. This commentary examines the implications of the alliance for Southeast Asian security from the perspective of Vietnam, a country that has long pursued a policy of non-alignment while actively engaging with both the United States and Australia...

  

EWC

Strategic Partners or Fickle Friends? Indonesia’s Perceptions of the US-Australia Defense and Security Relationship, August 2024. The US-Australia relationship is a special one. Bilateral military and defense ties between the two countries are over a century old, with the Australian military having been involved in almost every major conflict that the United States has been involved in since World War I. These ties have only grown stronger with the emergence of security-based minilateral initiatives such as the Quad and AUKUS. US-Australia minilaterals are products of the contested nature of the Indo-Pacific security landscape, in which the United States and Australia find themselves grappling with what they consider a monumental adversary in the People’s Republic of China...

  

EWC

Understated and Sometimes Contentious -  A Perspective on the US-Australia Alliance in Southeast Asia, August 2024. The Australian-United States alliance is probably one of the most under-appreciated and misunderstood security partnerships in Southeast Asia. Often derided as a barely tolerable symbol of “Western” influence in Asia and sometimes ridiculed for its ambitions to act as “sheriff” and “deputy sheriff,” the alliance nonetheless provides useful support for the region’s stability today. Southeast Asian states benefit from a predictable set of international practices, major powers exercising relative restraint, and a general aversion to escalating uses of force in the region. Thereby, they derive some utility from a functioning US-Australia alliance. The alliance is one of the pillars that helps undergird the status quo in Southeast Asia...

  

EWC

Connecting the Indo-Pacific: The Future of Subsea Cables and Opportunities for Australia, September 2024. Submarine cable networks are critical infrastructure; they carry nearly all public internet and private network data traffic, facilitating global economic and financial activity as well as government and military communications and operations. The submarine cable landscape has entered a new era and is now shaped by the rising participation of hyperscalers—hyperscale cloud and content providers— as well as the strategic actions of major powers and minilateral groups. The report examines the significance of this for Australia and explores how Australia can capitalise on these evolving dynamics to solidify its position as a regional digital hub in the Indo-Pacific by improving regional subcable resilience and digital connectivity, including its own...

  

ASPI

Lessons in Leadership: Interviews With 11 of Australia’s Former Defence Ministers, September 2024. In a time of growing strategic uncertainty, 11 of Australia’s former defence ministers have shared valuable lessons they learned over decades running one of the toughest portfolios in government. In this compendium, the former ministers from both sides of politics give their views on topics ranging from the complexity of dealing with a massive department, to the grief they shared with families at the funerals of slain soldiers. The pieces are drawn from interviews with former ASPI executive director Peter Jennings and links to the original video interviews are available in the posts on The Strategist site...

  

ASPI

Taiwan’s Diplomatic Allies and the Struggle for Global Inclusion, September 2024. Considering the importance of multilateral institutions in global governance in the liberal world order, global stakeholders highly regard their memberships in international organizations to address various challenges and threats. Different actors cooperate through international organizations on transnational crime, environment, industry, global health, and many others. However, Taiwan continues to be sidelined in major organizations due to political considerations in favor of China. Stemming from its diplomatic history, Taiwan has a unique setup when interacting with and participating in international institutions...

  

ISDP

Navigating the Indo-Pacific: How Australia and the EU Can Partner for Peace, Stability, and Prosperity, September 2024. To navigate the choppy waters of the Indo-Pacific, the EU and Australia must be on the same wavelength regarding shared interests in rules, values, and an open and liberal economic order. Headwinds are plenty as the underpinnings of peace and stability are currently frail in an era of Indo-Pacific (re-)ordering. Proactive minilaterals and the agency of middle powers such as Australia provide tailwinds. Besides dealing with a more assertive China, five key areas of convergence between the EU and Australia are...

  

ISDP

Eco-Economic Balancing Act: The EU’s Approach to the China EV Trade Dispute, September 2024. The European Commission unveiled in June the long-expected preliminary results from the ongoing anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese Electric Vehicle (EV) manufacturers. Applicable from July 5, 2024, a new provisional tariff regime will apply to EV imports until November, when the EU Council at the latest must-have voted to either make the tariffs permanent or lift them, pending the results from the 13-month probe. However, reactions to the Commission’s initial findings have varied widely within the EU, and it also remains disputed how the tariffs will impact EU competitiveness and trade relations with China...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #23: Learn from Your Comrades: Understanding Authoritarian Diffusion between Vietnam and China. Since the normalization of relations in 1991, Vietnam and China, two of the five remaining communist regimes, have established a robust framework for mutual learning and cooperation. This collaboration has primarily centred around party governance and cadre training. Vietnam has actively studied and adopted elements of China’s successful model, which combines economic reform with strict political control. This approach has allowed Vietnam to maintain communist rule in the face of increasing global pressure for democratic reforms...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #22: Prospects and Challenges in Promoting Humanitarian Islam: Nahdlatul Ulama’s International Social Partnerships. Humanitarian Islam refers to the efforts of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) to promote peaceful coexistence among people of different faiths in the world, with a focus on rahmah (universal love and compassion). The main vehicles for promoting Humanitarian Islam have been North Carolina-registered non-governmental organizations (NGOs), namely Bayt ar-Rahmah (Home of the Divine Grace) and the Center for Shared Civilizational Values. Key advocates of this campaign include current Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) chairman Yahya Cholil Staquf and North Carolina native Holland Taylor...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #21: Mitigating Carbon Emissions and Haze in Southeast Asia’s Peatlands: Opportunities and Challenges in Integrating Policy and Governance. Peatland ecosystems in Southeast Asia are globally important as carbon sinks, rich in terrestrial and aquatic fauna and flora, and important sources of livelihood for local communities. However, agribusiness-driven land-use change and drainage cause peatland degradation and peat fires, which generate “haze” air pollution and lead to significant economic losses and health impacts. Disturbed peatlands also become substantial sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions...

  

ISEAS

Safeguarding Elections from Threats Posed by Artificial Intelligence, August 2024. Artificial intelligence (AI) presents a novel challenge to a record-breaking year of elections, with over 20 national elections held since the start of 2024. Much of the public discourse centres on AI’s ability to produce and disseminate mis- and disinformation, which has already impacted some elections. For instance, the deepfake of late Indonesian President Suharto endorsing Golkar candidates circulated during the lead-up in the country’s 2024 general election. The use of AI during elections is beneficial for increasing the efficiency of political campaigning processes, improving information parity and detecting AI-generated and AI-manipulated information. However, the technology has its pitfalls too. Its generative functionality has caused it to become a powerful manipulation tool...

  

IPS

Not Quite Impulsive Spenders: Key Findings from the IPS-CNA Survey on Financing Behaviours among Younger Singaporeans, April 2024. The IPS-CNA Survey on Financing Behaviours Among Younger Singaporeans 2022 sought to understand financial attitudes and behaviour among younger Singaporeans. It investigated attitudes and behaviours related to debt, savings, coping with the cost living, as well as planning for the future. The key findings of the study are summarised below. Almost half of all respondents indicated that food is their top or second top expenditure. Respondents aged 25 to 39 most often spend money on food (around eight in 10), clothes and footwear (over six in 10), and utility bills (around six in 10). Higher proportions of older respondents also indicated that they pay allowance to their children, parents or other dependents...

  

IPS

Decentralised Governance through Blockchain, March 2024. This paper explores the application of blockchain technology to decentralised governance. More specifically, it examines the potential of blockchain in creating self-governing ecosystems that help manage shared resources effectively. The paper uses the late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom’s model of decentralised governance to prove that effective resource management can be undertaken through a system that facilitates and rewards cooperation, as well as punishes parties that violate key principles and laws. This can be achieved without the overriding authority of the state imposing its will on the participants of that said ecosystem...

  

IPS

Public Housing in Singapore: Four Principles for Public Deliberation, February 2024. The paper analyses the baseline principles that underpin public housing policies in Singapore. Presented as four principles that can align or contradict each other, this happens when policy choices are made to achieve a key national objective or a balance of several, or to privilege a key segment of the population as part of those objectives. The four principles that are proposed are: Shelter, Citizenship, Store of Value, and Tradeable Assets and they are explained in detail. The paper provides a language by which to discuss the strategic role it plays in socio-economic development in Singapore and the trade-offs that are involved in prioritising one principle over the others in reforming public housing policy in the future.

  

IPS

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIII, Issue 1, April 2024 (Full Report). In the January 2024 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), MAS maintained the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, with no change to the width of the band or level at which it was centred. Since then, the S$NEER has continued to strengthen in the upper half of the appreciating policy band. Global economic growth remained resilient at the turn of the year. In the near term, growth in Singapore’s major trading partners is expected to be tempered by the impact of past monetary policy tightening and withdrawal of previous expansionary fiscal policies...

  

MAS

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, September 2024. The Sep 2024 Survey was sent out on 13 August 2024 to a total of 25 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 21 respondents (a response rate of 84%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts. The Singapore economy expanded by 2.9% year-on-year in Q2 2024, above the respondents’ median forecast of 2.7% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 2.6% year-on-year in Q3 2024. The respondents expect GDP to expand by 2.6% this year, up from 2.4% in the previous survey, with higher forecasts for the finance & insurance, construction as well as wholesale & retail trade sectors...

  

MAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

Asian Development Review, Vol. 41, No. 2, September 2024 (Full Report). Two of the articles look at the trade–poverty nexus and the linkages between demographic changes and labor productivity. The other three articles delve into the structural change impacts of trade disputes, special economic zones, and the transfer of labor away from agriculture.

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September 2024

  

 

 

 

  

 
Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2024 (Full Report):

Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific covers 49 economies: Afghanistan, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Republic of Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nauru, Nepal, Niue, New Zealand, Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Taipei, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, and Viet Nam.

  

ADB

Trump 2.0, August 2024. On 5 November, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. The choice is between Donald Trump, running for a second, non-consecutive term at the helm of a Republican Party moulded firmly in his image, and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, whose surprise elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket has re-energised her party. President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the contest has rebalanced the race for the moment. But the political landscape remains volatile. Of two things we can be fairly certain. Trump is better positioned for a knife-edge victory now than he was ahead of his shock win as a political outsider in 2016. Second, compared to a Harris victory, a return of Trump to the White House portends far greater disruption to the global role of the United States...

  

Lowy

The Great Game in the Pacific Islands, August 2024. Pacific Islanders have found their region, previously undervalued by larger powers, now a focal point for strategic competition. Geopolitical competition in the Pacific Islands region is intensifying. From deals on policing in Solomon Islands to building parliamentary complexes in Vanuatu, China’s outreach and activities in the region appear indefatigable. In the words of Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Canberra and its partners are locked in a “state of permanent contest” with Beijing over influence in the region. Pacific Island leaders used to complain that Australia and its Western partners paid too little attention to the region...

  

Lowy

Women Are Underfunded in the Pacific Islands, August 2024. Pacific Islands women are not receiving enough development funding. Until 2021, only about 3% of all aid had gender equality as its “principal” target, below the global average of 4%, and only a quarter of all aid had gender equality as a “significant” focus, 13% below the global average. Australia’s financing for Pacific women’s development overshadows that of all other development partners. Australia’s total contribution is slightly below the global average of financing for women’s development, although it is expected to rise with the implementation of new targets. Aid to the sector from China is negligible...

  

Lowy

Latest East-West Center Asia Pacific Bulletin series:

  

EWC

ASPI’s Two-Decade Critical Technology Tracker, August 2024. The Critical Technology Tracker is a large data-driven project that now covers 64 critical technologies spanning defence, space, energy, the environment, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, cyber, computing, advanced materials and key quantum technology areas. It provides a leading indicator of a country’s research performance, strategic intent and potential future science and technology capability. It first launched 1 March 2023 and underwent a major expansion on 28 August 2024 which took the dataset from five years (previously, 2018–2022) to 21 years (2003–2023)...

  

ASPI

When China Knocks at the Door of New Caledonia, August 2024. China’s covert foreign interference activities in the Pacific are a very important, and yet under-researched, topic. This report uses New Caledonia as the case study to examine China’s hidden front, throughout the wider Pacific. Successive months of violence and unrest in New Caledonia in 2024, have heightened regional and international awareness of the uncertain future of the territory, and the role of China in that future. The unrest erupted after France pushed through legislation extending voting rights in the territory. The CCP has engaged in a range of foreign interference activities in New Caledonia over many decades, targeting political and economic elites, and attempting to utilise the ethnic Chinese diaspora and PRC companies as tools of CCP interests...

  

ASPI

Ice Panda: Navigating China’s Hybrid Antarctic Agenda, August 2024. Antarctica is often overlooked in strategic discussions, but its role in geopolitical competition deserves attention. This report assesses the continents importance to Australian security, China’s hybrid Antarctic activity, and the need for Australia to develop a balancing strategy capable of bolstering the Antarctic Treaty and ‘pushing back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica. Antarctica offers significant strategic advantages for the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although Beijing's actions in Antarctica may not overtly violate the Antarctic Treaty (AT), they effectively undermine its principles and, by extension, Australia's strategic interests...

  

ASPI

Australia’s New Digital ID System: Finding the Right Way to Implement It, August 2024. This report reviews the Australian Government's proposed plans for establishing a digital ID, and the ways the new system is expected to work. It explores the planned digital ID system, the key features of the approach, and the privacy and security protections that have been built into the proposals. Australia has had a long and troubled history with national ID systems, dating back to the mid-1980 when the government failed to introduce the Australia Card. Since then, Australia has ended up with a clunky and inefficient process to identify peoples’ identities online. It has led to an oversharing and storage of sensitive personal data...

  

ASPI

The ‘Official’ Histories of Australian and British Intelligence: Lessons Learned and Next Steps, August 2024. Unclassified, official histories of ‘secret’ intelligence organisations, for public readership, seem a contradiction in terms. These ‘official’ works are commissioned by the agencies in question and directly informed by those agencies’ own records, thus distinguishing them from other, outsider historical accounts. But while such official intelligence histories are relatively new, sometimes controversial, and often challenging for historians and agencies alike, the experiences of the Australian and British intelligence communities suggest they’re a promising development for scholarship, maintaining public trust and informed public discourse, and more effective functioning of national security agencies. Furthermore, these histories remain an ongoing project for Australia’s National Intelligence Community (NIC).

  

ASPI

Gender Mainstreaming in United Nations Peace Operations: An Unfulfilled Promise? August 2024. The principle of gender equality is a cornerstone of the United Nations (UN). Centred on equal access to rights, opportunities, resources and decision-making powers irrespective of gender, it’s embedded within the UN Charter and championed in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Mechanisms such as the inaugural resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agreed to in 2000 by the UN Security Council (UNSC), and the adoption of an additional nine WPS resolutions, further represent the critical intent to achieve this goal. The purpose of such WPS mechanisms is to cultivate gender balance, foster diverse leadership and champion gender equality in a global effort to establish sustainable peace after conflict...

  

ASPI

The Geopolitics of Water: How the Brahmaputra River Could Shape India–China Security Competition, August 2024. This report assesses the geopolitical impact of a possible dam at the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra. In particular, it exams the dam as a potential source of coercive leverage China may gain over India. A dam there would create four likely strategic effects: it would very likely consolidate Beijing’s political control over its distant borderlands; it would create the potential for massive flooding as a tool of violence; it may affect human settlement and economic patterns on the Indian side of the border, downstream; and it would give Beijing water and data that it could withhold from India as bargaining leverage in unrelated negotiations. To mitigate those challenges and risks, the report provides three policy recommendations for the Indian Government and its partners in Australia and the US...

  

ASPI

Indo-Pacific as a Strategic Imperative for the EU: Whither Australia? August 2024. No global actor can afford to fall short in contributing to a stable, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific—this particularly applies to a somewhat distracted European Union (EU). The EU should become more central to fostering order in the Indo-Pacific, arguably more than it realizes: It is not taken too seriously as a regional actor beyond economics. It is critical for the EU to pay special attention to four principal strategic bearings: 1) International order probing and reform is mostly led by Indo-Pacific residents, 2) Indo-Pacific geo-economics will rule the roost only more, 3) The Indo-Pacific will largely determine (any) climate change reversion, and 4) The tech war will mostly play out in the Indo-Pacific...

  

ISDP

Russia-DPRK Partnership: Implications for the West, August 2024. This issue brief examines the evolving relationship between the DPRK and Russia, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The partnership has deepened, with North Korea supporting Russia diplomatically and receiving military and economic aid in return. This alliance, formalized during Putin’s 2024 visit to Pyongyang, has significant implications for regional stability and global geopolitics, including for Europe. The DPRK-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership encompasses military, economic, and technological cooperation, challenging U.S.-ROK alliance strategies and potentially intensifying regional arms races and provocations. The DPRK’s selective engagement strategy underscores its prioritization of relationships that bolster its security and economic interests amidst global tensions.

  

ISDP

Taiwan and International Organizations – Between Security, Cooperation and Identity, August 2024. International organizations are a historical point of contestation between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC), today commonly known as Taiwan. As of 2024, only 11 United Nations (UN) member-states and the Holy See diplomatically recognize Taiwan. However, 70 years ago the situation was very different. As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) established its rule in China in 1949, it started from a position of little international recognition. At that time, the ROC not only represented China in the UN system but also held a seat at the UN Security Council. Since then, the situation has effectively been reversed...

  

ISDP

The Political Gambit in Sports: Taiwan’s Struggles and Opportunities, August 2024. In the Paris 2024 Olympics, the Taiwanese government is being given the opportunity to use ‘Taiwan’ as its name in the Cultural Olympiad. Taking part in international sports is viewed as a critical means to bolster Taiwan’s diplomatic outreach, contributing to advancing cross-strait relations and relations with other countries while promoting Taiwan internationally. Taiwan’s sports diplomacy relies on hosting international sporting events and academic events and conducting cross-strait exchange programs. Due to China’s pressure on Taiwan’s participation in the international space, the effectiveness of these strategies is limited...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #20: The Evolution of Economic Reforms across Myanmar’s Administrations. Myanmar’s economic trajectory has shifted across various governmental regimes, transitioning from socialist to democratic systems and from planned to market economy structures. The economic policies implemented by successive governments often lacked coherence and were characterized by ad hoc measures aimed at short-term solutions rather than addressing underlying issues. Policymakers since 1989 have endeavoured to guide Myanmar towards a market-oriented economy, characterized by what could be termed the “Burmese/Myanmar Way to Market Economy”, which includes significant restrictions and controls...

  

ISEAS

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APEC
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ADB
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August 2024

  

 

 

 

  

 

The US Should Enhance Economic Engagement with Taiwan, July 2024. US engagement with Taiwan should place greater emphasis on the island’s economic resilience and vitality. Further strengthening Taiwan’s economy will make it more capable of bearing the financial burden of defending the island against a Chinese invasion. Additionally, a more robust Taiwan economy could provide more domestic space to manage relations vis-à-vis the United States and China. The United States cannot afford to lose Taiwan, a key democratic partner, an important link in the global supply chain network, and a critical player in America’s competition with China in the global semiconductor industry...

  

EWC

Election 2024 in Pakistan - A Catalyst for Strengthening Global Health Security Partnerships, July 2024. The recent 2024 elections in Pakistan present a unique opportunity to strengthen global health security through enhanced collaboration, ultimately contributing to improved health outcomes and resilience to domestic and international health threats. Against the backdrop of persistent health security challenges, particularly the threat of infectious diseases like malaria and polio, understanding how political dynamics influence health governance is crucial for advancing health security in Pakistan. This brief explores the impact of Pakistan’s 2024 electoral outcomes on health policy formulation, resource allocation, and continued partnership and engagement with the United States on global health security and sustainable development...

  

EWC

Strategic Realignments: Assessing the Impact of Taiwan's 2024 Elections on US-China Relations and Indo-Pacific Stability, July 2024. On January 13, 2024, Taiwan conducted presidential and comprehensive legislative elections. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected president, thus preserving the party's dominance over the executive branch. Concurrently, the Kuomintang (KMT) managed to secure the largest share of seats in the legislature, achieving a majority through a coalition with the increasingly influential Taiwan People's Party (TPP). This shift in political dynamics represents a significant departure from the era of Tsai Ing-wen, during which the DPP maintained robust control over both the executive and legislative branches, thereby minimizing the influence of opposition parties...

  

EWC

Japan, the Philippines, and the United States: A New Era of Partnership through Trilateral Defense and Security Cooperation, July 2024. On April 11, 2024, a historic trilateral summit took place at the White House between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. The leaders of the three countries agreed to deepen security and economic ties, with a joint statement outlining their shared commitment to maintaining a free and open rule-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region. The strengthening of trilateral cooperation is a significant strategic move to institutionalize the deterrence and response capabilities of US allies and partners, especially to protect the territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea (SCS) and East China Sea (ECS)...

  

EWC

The Role of the United States in Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Indonesia and Vietnam, July 2024. The potential reelection of Donald Trump as the US president looms as a critical juncture with profound implications for global energy transition efforts and climate commitments. Throughout Trump’s presidency (2016 to 2020), his administration championed domestic energy production while systematically dismantling key domestic climate policies, ultimately withdrawing from the landmark Paris Agreement. In stark contrast, Trump’s successor, President Joe Biden, has swiftly positioned combating climate change as a central pillar of his administration's agenda.

  

EWC

Testing Taiwan’s Democracy, July 2024. Despite fears of foreign interference, ballot hacking, and social media subversion, Taiwan’s 2024 election went off without a hitch, securing a win for the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and concessions from its main opponents, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). Nevertheless, Taiwan’s new government faces rough seas ahead. As they chart their course, Taiwan’s leaders will have to navigate three perilous domains: a divided domestic polity, an increasingly aggressive China, and an unpredictable American election. This bulletin highlights Taiwan’s liabilities in these domains and some of its hidden strengths...

  

EWC

Decoding Social Media’s Role in Taliban 2.0 and its Implications for Afghan Youth, July 2024. The Taliban retook control of Afghanistan on Aug. 15, 2021 after two decades of fighting on the ground and manipulating narratives online, particularly on social media. Their tactical use of social media was more evident in 2021 when they were advancing their territorial gains and posting on social media to promote the idea of their impending return to power. This study aims to understand the (ab)use of social media by the resurgent Taliban 2.0 and to suggest ways young Afghans can utilize social media to navigate their lives under the new regime. The authors undertook a critical review of the literature to analyze the Taliban’s social media tactics in manipulating public narratives to portray themselves as the legitimate rulers of Afghans...

  

EWC

Digitising the Social Safety Net: Lessons From Indonesia, July 2024. This analysis paper examines Indonesia’s journey in digitising its social safety net, emphasising the scale and long-term nature of the initiative. It offers insights for other countries undertaking similar initiatives and poised to leverage future digital advancements. Central to Indonesia’s success is unwavering government commitment, demonstrated through high-level political will and collaborative efforts across government agencies, regulators, local governments, the private sector, and international development partners. Indonesia’s approach highlights the value of tailored solutions and continuous experimentation rather than simply replicating the models of others. Sustaining progress requires ongoing commitment and adaptive strategies to navigate evolving government agendas and advancements in technology.

  

Lowy

Deterrence and Alliance Power: Why the AUKUS Submarines Matter and How They Can Be Delivered, July 2024. The AUKUS program to deliver eight nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines to Australia is a large, technologically challenging, and industrially demanding venture. Many doubts have been raised about its practicality. This report addresses each of those critiques squarely. It concludes that some concerns are warranted but others have been ill-informed or driven by outdated assumptions. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have all committed substantial resources to ensure that the submarine program succeeds. Progress in most areas is impressive. Project planning is in an advanced state, programs of industrial expansion and modernisation are well underway, personnel recruitment and training are advancing, and the AUKUS submarine design should be finalised within 18 months...

  

Lowy

Full Tilt: The UK’s Defence Role in the Pacific: Views From the Strategist, July 2024. Britain has a new prime minister, Keir Starmer, leading its first Labour government in 14 years. Key questions for us now are how Britain under Labour will approach the security partnership with Australia and whether London will remain committed to investing defence resources in the Indo-Pacific. This report provides vital context for addressing these questions. In this series of articles, originally published in ASPI’s The Strategist this year, ASPI authors review the historical underpinnings and future course of Britain’s strategic recoupling with Australia and this region, especially the Pacific Islands, from perspectives ranging from deterrence to climate resilience...

  

ASPI

A National Strategic Warning Intelligence Capability for Australia, July 2024. Australia’s strategic warning time has collapsed—in response to profound geopolitical shifts. As the ADF is adapting to the hard implications of this change, so must the national intelligence community (NIC). Australian Government decision-makers need time and insight to identify and prioritise threats (and opportunities) and devise effective responses. Strategic warning intelligence enables and empowers them to do so. But it must be done in a way that keeps up with the rapid pace of geopolitical and technological change, and a widening array of non-traditional strategic threats, and in a fashion best suited to Australia’s circumstances...

  

ASPI

Taiwan-PRC Crisis: What Cross-Strait Conflict Could Cost Europe, July 2024. The escalating tensions between Taiwan and China pose significant economic and strategic challenges to the European Union, such as the inaccessibility of Taiwanese inputs, market, and capital. This issue brief aims to examine Europe’s economic stake in the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. By outlining EU-Taiwan’s economic ties and emphasizing European interest in the self-governing island, this issue brief highlights the potential costs of a cross-strait crisis in Europe and what actions Europe needs to take. It additionally examines two scenarios of an armed conflict: a blockade and an all-out war. In its conclusion, the issue brief provides a perspective of Europe’s stake in cross-strait peace and stability.

  

ISDP

Deciphering North Korea’s Military Activities, July 2024. In 2024, the growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula have highlighted the unpredictability of North Korea’s military intentions. This issue brief evaluates the strategic behaviors of North Korea, particularly under the leadership of Kim Jong Un. By analyzing public military activities, often portrayed as a “show of force,” it attempts to interpret the underlying political and strategic intentions that North Korea aims to convey both domestically and internationally. The analysis suggests that these displays serve multiple functions, including deterrence, coercion, and internal governance. This issue brief contributes to a more nuanced understanding of North Korea’s military posturing and proposes considerations for a rational strategy in the ROK-U.S. alliance’s approach towards the regime.

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #19: From Paper to Practice: Generational Divides in Understanding Thailand’s History Grow Amid Political Polarization. Amid political polarization, knowledge and understanding of Thailand’s history have also diverged radically. This divide is especially evident between younger and older generations. Driving this phenomenon is the growing rejection by students of the traditional history taught in public schools, which in the past had been a means for the Thai state to instil in the young a sense of nationalism, national pride and shared values. Poor pedagogy that emphasizes memorization, and that discourages discussions and critical thinking, has alienated many from the subject. Education professionals and student activists have also been critical of this development...

  

ISEAS

Politics, Pandemics and Economics: Malaysia’s Post-Covid Election, July 2024. Malaysia’s fifteenth general election was in November 2022. Held in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic recovery was sufficiently robust to benefit the two political parties PAS and BERSATU which campaigned as incumbents in the election. There was a shift in the support away from UMNO to these two parties amongst the Bumiputra voters in Peninsular Malaysia. Voters’ support for PAS was particularly strong in constituencies with higher poverty rates and lower inequality. The opposite is true for PKR and DAP. The low explanatory power of the economic voting model for UMNO also hints that other factors that could have reduced voters’ support for the party in GE2022.

  

ISEAS

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2024Q3, July 2024. Hong Kong's economic growth grew by 2.7% in 24Q1, lower than the annual 3.3% in 2023. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to further moderate to a 2.0% growth in 24Q2, reflecting a slowdown in Hong Kong domestic demand. Given the tightness in the labour market, the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.0% in 24Q3. Private consumption expenditure is expected to experience a slight negative growth in 24Q3 since the recovery from the pandemic. Clouded by a grim outlook for the retail industry, the volume of retail sales dropped by 16.5% and 12.9% in April and May 2024 respectively...

  

HKU

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ADB
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ADB

Asian Development Outlook, July 2024. Growth in developing Asia accelerated in the first quarter of 2024 on resilient domestic demand and strong export growth, particularly in electronics. The region’s growth forecast for 2024 is increased slightly to 5.0%, while the 2025 projection is maintained at 4.9%. East Asia’s 2024 growth projection is revised up to 4.6% on strong exports of semiconductors and other goods driven by the artificial intelligence boom, with the 2025 projection maintained at 4.2%. Despite some changes in individual economies, growth forecasts for Southeast Asia remain at 4.6% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, and for the Pacific at 3.3% in 2024 and 4.0% in 2025...

  

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Deterring at a Distance: The Strategic Logic of Aukus, June 2024. As China’s massive military build-up drives rising regional security anxieties, Australia is contributing to a more favourable balance of power through AUKUS. This technology-sharing agreement with the United Kingdom and the United States will see eight nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) in Australian service by the 2050s. SSNs are overwhelmingly in Australia’s interest because they strengthen the country’s ability to deter war by threatening painful consequences for aggression against Australia, its partners, and its interests. The 2023 Defence Strategic Review explicitly tasks the Australian Defence Force with a deterrence role against a significant military power — a relatively new mission. SSNs are optimal deterrence machines, able to accomplish the essential tasks laid out in the Review.

  

Lowy

Southeast Asia Aid Map 2024 - Key Findings Report, June 2024. After a pandemic-related surge in support, total official development finance to the region fell to a new low of $26 billion in 2022. There has been a sharp decline in new Chinese development financing, though ongoing projects mean Beijing looks set to remain the dominant infrastructure financier in the region. Traditional development partners collectively continue to dominate total financing, accounting for nearly 90% of total ODF disbursements to Southeast Asia in 2022. The Asian Development Bank and Japan played the most substantive roles in supporting crisis man- agement and recovery. Climate development finance dropped 15% in 2022 despite increased policy emphasis from the international community, leaving the region’s green transition at risk...

  

Lowy

Constrained Recovery: Global Shocks and Emerging Southeast Asia, May 2024. Southeast Asia’s emerging economies are some of the most successful in the world. Economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is underway, and the region has returned to relatively strong growth. Nonetheless, the impact from these shocks and ongoing developments in the world economy has been substantial. This report focuses on how the high-performing economies of Emerging Southeast Asia — Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam — have been affected and their outlook for growth and development reshaped by the tumultuous events of recent years. Emerging Southeast Asia managed the economic impacts of Covid-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine relatively well...

  

Lowy

Growing Foreign and Security Policy Challenges Face India’s Re-elected Modi Government, June 2024. The 2024 Indian general election—the largest in human history, with 642 million taking part—resulted in a third five-year term for incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling coalition headed by his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Unlike some of his predecessors, Modi has been keen to establish himself as a foreign and defense policy heavyweight. Reflecting the scale of Modi’s stated ambition, India’s External Affairs Minister has compared him favorably to India’s founding Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, despite the latter’s lasting international reputation as a global leader...

  

EWC

Revisiting the Cambodia-Thailand Maritime Dispute: International Law, Politics and Nationalism, June 2024. This article analyzes the historical and continuing Cambodia-Thailand maritime dispute in the Overlapping Claims Area of the Gulf of Thailand, first looking into the history of the dispute to identify primary sticking points that have led to the five decade deadlock and then considering current politics, attendant risks and possibilities of finding a solution to the deadlock. The author argues that policy makers have a historic opportunity to seize the moment by using large amounts of political capital accumulated in the elections last year to break the longstanding impasse. Policy makers must pay heed to nationalisms in both countries to lessen the risks of negotiation failure...

  

EWC

Indo-Pacific Minilateralism and Strategic Competition (I): Australia/Japan and Chinese Approaches Compared, June 2024. This East-West Center Occasional Paper is the first in a set of two papers examining the ways in which Australia and Japan have sought to leverage minilateral forms of cooperation as a means of strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. The topic of minilateralism is usually treated as response to the rise of China on the part of “Western” countries, but this obscures the fact that Beijing is also a major practitioner of minilateral forms of cooperation. This paper concludes that Australia and Japan have taken a traditional “security-first” approach to minilateralism. This stands in contrast to the more expansive approach pursued by Beijing, which focuses primarily on geoeconomics along with China’s broader goal of becoming a global leader, which has potential implications for international order...

  

EWC

Japan/Australia Minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific (II): Advancing Cooperation in Order-building and Geoeconomics, June 2024. This East-West Center Occasional Paper is the second of a set of two papers examining how Japan and Australia are seeking to employ minilateral institutions to enhance their cooperation and compete strategically in an increasingly contested region. The first paper demonstrated how Japan and Australia have adopted a minilateralist approach that chiefly prioritizes traditional security concerns, in contrast to China’s emphasis on geoeconomics alongside its efforts to entrench its global/regional leadership and shape the international order. This second paper considers the strategic objectives underlying China’s practice of minilateralism and reevaluates the order-building and geoeconomic dimensions within the Australian/Japanese practice of minilateralism...

  

EWC

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 9, June 2024. Expanding on previous volumes, this edition introduces thematic chapters focused on a range of subjects relevant to northern Australia. These include;
  • Defence in the North,
  • Developing Northern Australia,
  • Northern Australia and the Indo-Pacific
  • Critical Minerals, Energy, and Commodities,
  • Space, Food Security and Climate Trends

As in previous editions, Volume 9 contains a range of expert opinions across these varied topics...

  

ASPI

Negotiating Technical Standards for Artificial Intelligence, June 2024. At the heart of how AI technologies are developed, deployed and used in a responsible manner sit a suite of technical standards: rules, guidelines and characteristics that ensure the safety, security and interoperability of a product. The report authors highlight that the Indo-Pacific, including Australia and India, are largely playing catch-up in AI standards initiatives. The United States and China are leading the pack, followed by European nations thanks to their size, scope and resources of their national standardisation communities as well as their domestic AI sectors. Not being strongly represented in the world of AI governance and technical standards is a strategic risk for Indo-Pacific nations. For a region that’s banking on the opportunities of a digital and technology-enabled economy and has large swathes of its population in at-risk jobs...

  

ASPI

The Cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2024-2025, June 2024. On 14 May 2024, the Treasurer released the 2024–25 Budget, describing it as being designed ‘for the here‑and‑now and … for the decades to come’. It’s a pre-election budget, so the priorities for this year’s appropriations are very much the cost-of-living crisis facing Australian citizens and the government’s Future Made in Australia initiative. Unsurprisingly, the big spending in this year’s budget covers domestic social policy issues and the first tranche of a more interventionist industry policy. It is also the case, as it was last year through the 2023 Defence Strategic Review (DSR), that much of the defence-related budget had already been announced through the 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS)...

  

ASPI

Japan’s Energy Security in the Persian Gulf: Caught Between New and Old Challenges, June 2024. The goal of this paper is to investigate the evolution of Japan’s energy strategy in the Persian Gulf and understand how intra-Asian competition for business opportunities in the region can impact Tokyo’s energy security. It analyzes the current state of defense cooperation agreements (DCAs) between leading East Asian and Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC). DCAs are considered among the most relevant tools available to states to build up strategic partnerships. Successful DCAs with GCC states are therefore an indicator of political and security commitment...

  

ISDP

Anticipating North Korea’s Next Nuclear Test, June 2024. This issue brief provides a comprehensive analysis of the anticipated technical and strategic objectives behind North Korea’s potential seventh nuclear test, along with an examination of the probable timing for such an event. Drawing upon recent developments, including North Korea’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons and its political aspirations for cementing its nuclear status, the issue brief explores the interplay of domestic and international factors shaping Pyongyang’s decision-making. With insights into North Korea’s evolving nuclear capabilities, the analysis delves into the significance of the upcoming U.S. presidential election as a potential catalyst for nuclear testing and its implications for regional dynamics...

  

ISDP

EU-Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain: Resilience amid the Digital and Green Transition, June 2024. This issue brief provides a comprehensive analysis of the anticipated technical and strategic objectives behind North Korea’s potential seventh nuclear test, along with an examination of the probable timing for such an event. Drawing upon recent developments, including North Korea’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons and its political aspirations for cementing its nuclear status, the issue brief explores the interplay of domestic and international factors shaping Pyongyang’s decision-making. With insights into North Korea’s evolving nuclear capabilities, the analysis delves into the significance of the upcoming U.S. presidential election as a potential catalyst for nuclear testing and its implications for regional dynamics...

  

ISDP

To What Extent is China a ‘Security Threat’? June 2024. The current international order, led by the United States, is undergoing phenomenal political, economic, and security changes that will decide whether the order will continue as it is, or a major pole shift will occur in an increasingly bipolar world. China is at the forefront of this evolution. It is the sole actor threatening the U.S.-led order so that it can be reshaped to fit into a novel design with Chinese characteristics. To do so, China employs a diverse set of economic and political strategies, which are efficient despite their ruthless nature. Currently, it does not look like the U.S. and the international community can form a consensus on how much of a security threat China poses...

  

ISDP

G20 and BRICS: Towards a Joint Pursuit of Effective Multilateralism for the Global South, June 2024. The Global South is, unarguably, the pivoting point of debates and deliberations in the G20 grouping. As the baton of the G20 presidency passes on from India to Brazil, the greater representation of the Global South, its role in global governance, and strengthening multilateralism will be the moot point and pursuit. BRICS remains a pre-eminent platform for South-South cooperation and its founding members are some of the most prominent actors within the G20 as well. Moreover, BRICS’ recent enlargement has increased its relevance as a platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries...

  

ISDP

India’s Position in Iran’s ‘Look to the East’ Policy, June 2024. Ebrahim Raisi’s administration has prioritized its ‘Look to the East’ policy. Although the focus is on Russia and China, India also has a special place in this policy. Iran and India consider the development of Chabahar port vital for establishing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and connecting Afghanistan to Central Asia. The INSTC can strengthen Iran’s relations with India and Russia and provide these countries with geopolitical and geo-economic benefits. At the same time, it allows India to find a suitable route to Central Asia, Eurasia, and Europe, bypassing Pakistan and competing with China in creating international corridors, including the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)...

  

ISDP

Does Soft Power Have Any Value for Taiwan, May 2024. As a diplomatic tool, soft power conveys the core values and ideology of a country and serves as its front window abroad to win sympathy for its beliefs, values, and institutions. The aim is to garner support for political agendas and determine the framework of debate and engagement in favor of the nation that is able to deploy soft power. In the case of Taiwan, there are limits to how soft power can be used due to the lack of international recognition of its sovereignty and the existential threat from China. Still, Taiwan’s soft power has been deployed with increasing success over the years. Taiwan has won more and more recognition internationally, especially from like-minded countries...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #18: From Paper to Practice: Utilizing the ASEAN Guide on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance and Ethics. The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies has been nothing less of awe-inspiring. Policymakers are put in a bind as debates over how the deployment of these AI systems is to be managed — with good governance and ethical considerations in mind, and without stifling innovation. ASEAN’s response has been the formulation of the ASEAN Guide on AI Governance and Ethics, or the ASEAN AI Guide. This Guide serves more as a “practical guide” for organizations involved in the development and deployment of AI for commercial and non-military or dual-use applications, as opposed to a policy playbook for governments...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #17: Who’s Doing What? A Closer Look at Methane Climate Impact and Commitments in Southeast Asia’s Energy Sector. This article draws from a database of asset-level emissions to identify key methane-emitting coal, oil and gas facilities in Southeast Asia while taking stock of the methane commitments of their owners. Coal mines account for around a third of fossil fuel methane emissions globally, but in Southeast Asia, they make up more than half of tracked fossil fuel methane emissions. Over half of emissions from the coal mining subsector is traced to its top ten emitters, mostly in East Kalimantan, Indonesia; while some coal mines in North Vietnam have high emissions intensities...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #16: Understanding Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Choices Amid Sino-US Rivalry. Vietnam’s foreign policy towards China and the United States (US) involves a delicate process of reconciling and balancing competing perceptions, goals and interests within the country. This leads to foreign policy decisions that may respectively lean towards either China or the US, depending on specific circumstances and issues, while trying to maintain an overall equilibrium between the two powers. Vietnam’s foreign policy adopts the paradigm of “cooperation” and “struggle” in its relations with major powers, and defines “national security” as encompassing both national sovereignty and regime security...

  

ISEAS

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Outrage Is Not a Policy: Coming to Terms With Myanmar’s Fragmented State, May 2024. This paper analyses the evolution of Myanmar’s civil war with a view to identifying optimal international policy responses. The sharp escalation of armed resistance since late 2023 holds out the tantalising prospect that the once seemingly invincible military regime could be defeated. Yet it remains an open question whether anti-junta forces will be able to carry the momentum from their recent victories in the forest-covered, mountainous borderlands across the open plains of central Myanmar to take the capital or other major cities. Even if resistance forces ultimately emerge victorious, the goal of building a genuine federal democracy will likely take years of highly complex and politically fraught negotiations...

  

Lowy

Being Chinese in Australia, 2023 Edition. In this third nationally representative survey of the Lowy Institute’s Being Chinese in Australia series, we asked Chinese-Australians about Australia and the world. As in the two previous surveys, we explored three broad themes: how Chinese-Australians see Australia and their place in it; how they consume news and information; and how they view the wider world. The survey also compares the sentiments expressed by Chinese-Australians with those of the broader Australian population. Most Chinese-Australians have a positive view of Australia. A majority say that Australia is a good place to live and are proud of the Australian way of life and culture. Three quarters say they feel a moderate or strong sense of belonging — an increase from the 2021 survey. Fewer Chinese-Australians say they have been called offensive names or physically threatened or attacked because of their heritage in the last year...

  

Lowy

Nobody Wins Unless Everybody Wins: The Coles Review Into the Sustainment of Australia’s Collins-Class Submarines, May 2024. In 2003, Australia became the proud owner of the last of six new-build Collins-class submarines. Less than a decade later, the fleet was in a poor state of repair, and at times only one or two of the boats were available to the Royal Australian Navy. This account by Andrew Davies explains how the situation was remediated by bringing in a team of highly experienced naval professionals to take an uncompromising look at the arrangements in place to manage a vital national defence asset. Despite a public perception that the submarines were inherently defective, the problems were in fact almost entirely due to dysfunctional and often rancorous organisational dynamics between the key players...

  

ASPI

Deterrence, Escalation and Strategic Stability: Rebuilding Australia’s Muscle Memory, May 2024. To build an effective deterrence strategy, Australia needs urgently to improve its skills and understanding of deterrence, and raise the topic’s profile in our public and policy discussions. Despite having previously been a global thought leader on nuclear weapons and deterrence half a century ago, Australia today doesn’t have a strong grasp of the basics of modern deterrence. Knowledge of and literacy in deterrence are vital for adapting and applying such concepts to meet today’s extraordinarily complex, multidomain and multidimensional requirements. A lack of understanding of deterrence can critically undermine the ability to get strategy and policy right. The implications for Australia’s national interests are urgent and serious...

  

ASPI

AUKUS Pillar 2 Critical Pathways: A Road Map to Enabling International Collaboration, May 2024. The AUKUS trilateral partnership presents Australia with an unprecedented opportunity to achieve national-security goals that have eluded it for decades. It could offer access to cutting-edge technologies. It can further integrate Australian, US and UK military forces, allowing more unified action to maintain deterrence against national and transnational actors who threaten the global rules-based order. Perhaps most importantly, AUKUS—in particular its Pillar.2 objectives—is an opportunity for Australia to pursue the long-sought industrial capacity necessary to defend its borders and its interests across a range of probable conflict scenarios...

  

ASPI

Turning Back the Clock: The Changing Nature of North Korean Food Insecurity, May 2024. Over the past several years, North Korea has adopted legal changes that are increasing the centrality of the Workers Party of Korea and the state in agricultural production, distribution, and consumption. This development changes the basic nature of food insecurity in North Korea from one in which access to food is determined by the ability to purchase it in the market to one in which access to food is determined by political status. This development is of potential policy relevance: Although current conditions do not appear to be severe, if and when North Korea experiences another food crisis, foreign partners are likely to encounter a state dominated model more closely resembling the system that existed in the early 1990s at the onset of the famine and with it the attendant problems that humanitarian-relief agencies confronted at that time.

  

EWC

From Bandung to Hindutva: How the Palestine Question Shows India’s Alternative Foreign Policy Futures, May 2024. On January 26, 2024, in the midst of ongoing global protest against Israel’s siege of Gaza, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered that Israel must “take all possible measures” to prevent genocide against Palestinian people living in the Gaza Strip. Justice Dalveer Bhandari, the only Indian justice of the fifteen judges who overheard the case, concurred with the ruling, writing, “It must, in this case, take into account the widespread destruction in Gaza and loss of life that the population of Gaza has thus far endured.” Soon after, on February 21, 2024, the Water Transport Workers Federation (WTWF), representing fourteen thousand workers, including 3,500 stationed at eleven of India’s twelve major ports, declared they would refuse to handle weaponry destined for Israel...

  

EWC
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EWC

South Korea’s Road to Carbon Neutrality: Solutions and Obstacles, May 2024. Globally, energy security policies are gaining prominence as geopolitical tensions and climate concerns intersect. The escalating impacts of climate change, evident through extreme weather events like heatwaves, heavy snowfall, typhoons, and forest fires, underscore the urgency for action. In response, major developed countries are hastening their transitions towards a green economy to mitigate climate related disasters and their socioeconomic fallout. Carbon neutrality has emerged as an irreversible international imperative, symbolizing a shift towards “low carbon, green growth” as a strategy for environmental conservation...

  

ISDP

The Kingdom of Sweden: A Long History of Sustainable Practices, May 2024. Sweden has been one of the pioneering countries in the field of sustainability, green transition, and environmental conservation. Notably, in 1964 and 1967, Sweden passed the Nature Conservancy Act and the Environmental Protection Act, respectively, becoming the first country ever to pass such legislation. Additionally, in 1972, Sweden was the host of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, the first conference to raise the issue of environmental conservation. From then on, Sweden has taken major leaps in promoting policies, practices, and legislation aimed at substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants. As of 2023, Sweden is a leading hub for environmental research and green technologies, spearheading decarbonization efforts through clean energy sources and becoming a model globally...

  

ISDP

Maldives Walking Tight Rope between India and China, May 2024. Like all the South Asian small states, the Maldives has been subjected to great power politics. There are five principles of Maldives’ foreign policy (mostly reciprocating with India’s ‘Panchsheel’) and six goals that revolve around sovereignty, identity, and Islamic nationalism. But due to the increasingly tense geopolitical environment, foreign policy adaptation has been a challenging task for the Maldives. As a result, Maldives’ internal political environment is largely polarized to ‘Anti or Pro- India or China’ when it comes to managing the changing geopolitical discourse. This issue brief aims to untangle the sources of Maldives’ foreign policy toward China and India so as to identify how the Maldives has adjusted to the changing geopolitical environment in South Asia.

  

ISDP

Positive Paranoia: Chinese Interpretations of Indo-Pacific Geopolitics, May 2024. This Focus Asia paper seeks to interpret Chinese narratives on Indo-Pacific geopolitics by reviewing Chinese state media and scholarly opinions on Indo-Pacific geopolitics. For this purpose, the paper also examines the PRC’s interpretation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the ‘Quad’ comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S.) and the interplay with the three middle-power Quad partners. Similarly, it explores China-Europe dynamics in Chinese state media and official discourse, given the expansion of the European Union’s strategic interest in Indo-Pacific geopolitics. Chinese scholars share many views with those of official state media. This is particularly evident in views of U.S. motives to contain China, dismissals of any U.S. success, and fault-finding with U.S. traditional and potential allies. Yet, Chinese scholars reveal different interpretations of the evolution of U.S. Indo-Pacific policies and the space for U.S.-China cooperation within the Indo-Pacific strategy confines...

  

ISDP

Why Taiwan Matters to Europe, May 2024. The Taiwan issue is known to be sensitive for Beijing, one of its so-called core interests. Taiwan has no diplomatic recognition among European Union member states but informal relations and cooperation between Taiwan and Europe are nevertheless extensive in many areas. The position that Europe should steer clear of a conflict over Taiwan presupposes that it does not have a clear stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. European interests are, however, far more intertwined with Taiwan and its security than what its lack of geographical proximity would initially suggest. Understanding Taiwan’s significance to Europe is increasingly important in order to understand the foundations on which current relations rest and what Europe’s stake in the Taiwan Strait is. To examine and expound on why Taiwan matters to Europe...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #15: Party of Hardship: The Evolution of Malaysia’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat. The People’s Justice Party (PKR) may in many ways be synonymous with its larger-than-life leader, Anwar Ibrahim, who, although only president for six of the party’s twenty-five years, has always been its de facto leader and adviser. However, PKR is much more than only about Anwar, and this paper traces the evolution of the party independently of Anwar as a person.PKR’s evolution can be broken down into four main periods: 1998–2004 (formative), 2005–13 (golden era), 2014–18 (all-in for power), and 2019–22 (lessons on restraints). From 1998 to 2022, PKR tended to adopt a big-tent approach (internally and externally), ideological synthesis to find a middle ground, and a loose organization led by a charismatic personality at the top and self-organization at the grassroots...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #14: Delivering Development, Enforcing Shariah: PAS’s Dilemma in Terengganu. Whenever the Islamist party PAS comes to power in Terengganu, its political agenda has been to combine populist-type development programmes with the wish to turn Terengganu into a shariah-compliant state. Terengganu’s state budget is however heavily dependent on the federal government, to the tune of 80–90 per cent. This hinders the state government’s policymaking and implementation, especially when the federal government is controlled by its political opponents. This article argues that the politics of development play a more central role in determining the durability of the PAS state government in Terengganu than it does in neighbouring Kelantan...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #13: Malaysia’s Responses to Issues Pertaining to Palestine. Malaysia’s support for Palestinian independence has always been based on religion. Historically, Malaysia has had warm relations with Palestinian leaders including the Palestine Liberation Organization—during Hussein Onn’s and Mahathir Mohamad’s administrations—and Hamas since Najib Razak’s administration. However, Malaysia’s support is not just based on their affinity to Palestinians as fellow Muslims but is also a matter of domestic politics. Support for Palestine has been used as a political tool for various quarters to prove that they are more Islamic than the other...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #12: Why Young Malay Voters in Malaysia Are “Turning Green”. There is an increasing trend among young Malay voters in Malaysia to support the Perikatan Nasional coalition, with a particular emphasis on the Islamist party PAS. Despite recognition of the weak economy as a significant national concern, young Malay voters continue to place a higher emphasis on Muslim leaders who assert their commitment to safeguarding the rights of Islam in Malaysia. Consistent with theories on political socialization, the influence of family members significantly affects young Malay voters in Malaysia, particularly due to their limited political awareness of alternative channels like formal schooling...

  

ISEAS

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Pacific Perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, April 2024. The Pacific and its ocean people’s heritage need to be featured more prominently in the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Pacific island states are large, gigantic if you will! If you consider the area where these states have sovereign rights, their exclusive economic zones (EEZs), then 5 of the 20 largest states in the world would be Pacific Island states. Three of those are in the North Pacific. Considering its EEZ, the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is equivalent to the size of the entire US mainland. Obviously, this assertion challenges the “land dominates sea” maxim in international discourse. However, a saying from our traditional navigators, “The seas are highways of life, they do not separate us, they connect us,” better encapsulates the strategic value of our ocean territory...

  

EWC

Enhancing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific through Sub-Regional Initiatives: The Case of the BIMP-EAGA Initiative, April 2024. Effectively managing geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia has arguably become the most pressing concern for maintaining regional peace and stability. In recent years, US-China tensions have escalated across multiple facets of the region’s multilateral institutions. As a result, managing strategic competition has become an ever more complex affair, testing the overall effectiveness of ASEAN centrality. The United States has taken a series of steps to strengthen its relations with its Indo-Pacific partners and allies through multilateral and minilateral frameworks—namely the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the QUAD, and AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States...

  

EWC

The Open Gap in the “Free and Open” Indo-Pacific, April 2024. The Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) opens with President Biden’s words at the Quad Leader’s Summit: “The future of each of our nations, and indeed the world, depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific flourishing in the decades ahead.” The emphasis on a free and open Indo-Pacific maintains the “rules-based international order” label wherein the United States aims to strengthen democratic institutions, the rule of law, and accountable democratic governance...

  

EWC

Australia’s 2024 Independent Intelligence Review: Opportunities and Challenges: Views From the Strategist, April 2024. Australia has a recent history of intelligence community reform via independent intelligence reviews (IIRs) commissioned by government on a regular basis since 2004. The latest IIR is being undertaken by Dr Heather Smith and Mr Richard Maude. In the lead-up to the announcement of the 2024 IIR, and afterwards, ASPI’s The Strategist has served as a valuable forum for canvassing publicly the most significant issues and challenges to be addressed by the reviewers...

  

ASPI

Reclaiming Leadership: Australia and the Global Critical Minerals Race, April 2024. Climate policy, geopolitics and market forces are coalescing to deliver Australia a global leadership opportunity in critical minerals. To grasp that opportunity, Australia needs both to utilise its domestic mineral endowment and its mining knowledge and technology and to leverage the global footprint of Australian companies to help build a global supply chain network. How Australia responds will not only determine economic benefits to the nation but will also affect the world’s ability to achieve minerals security and the sustainability required for the global energy transition and inclusive economic growth...

  

ASPI

Regional Security and Pacific Partnerships: Recruiting Pacific Islanders Into the Australian Defence Force, April 2024. The security and stability of the South Pacific and Australia are deeply intertwined. Australian Government policies have for more than a decade consistently prioritised the Pacific for international engagement, including in defence, development and diplomacy. The Australian Government’s ‘Pacific Step-up’, first announced in 2016, delivered a heightened level of effort by Canberra in the region, as did Australia’s strong support for the Pacific Islands Forum’s Boe Declaration. The Albanese government’s increased policy focus on the region, and on a coordinated whole-of-government approach to the Pacific, demonstrates the centrality of our immediate region to the Australian Government’s strategic planning...

  

ASPI

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2024Q2, April 2024. Given the tightness in the labour market, it is projected that the unemployment rates for 24Q1 and 24Q2 will remain at 2.9% respectively. Hong Kong's external trade is expected to maintain its positive momentum, with exports and imports of goods projected to increase from 4.1% and 1.9% growth in the 24Q1 to 6.5% and 5.2% growth in 24Q2. Hong Kong's services exports is expected to increase by 5.9% in 24Q2, thanks to the resumption of normal travel. However, the surge in consumption by Hong Kong residents abroad has led to a significant increase of 7.5% in services imports during the same period, entirely offsetting the contribution of service exports to the overall economic growth...

  

HKU

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #11: Myanmar’s Resistance and the Future of Border Trade: Challenges and Opportunities. Since the start of Operation 1027, Myanmar’s resistance groups have gained control over large parts of key overland trade routes and a number of important border crossings, fundamentally changing the realities in the control of border trade. Despite these losses, the State Administration Council (SAC) retains control-of-trade-related institutions that are vital for accessing an international trading system characterized by state-to-state interactions...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #10 : Beyond Slacktivism: The Dynamic Relationship between Online and Offline Activism among Southeast Asian Youths. Despite a surge in youth activism across Southeast Asian countries, comparative analysis in this region remains scarce. Using data from the World Values Survey of several studies, and case studies on Indonesia, this article examines the extent to which online political activism serves as a catalyst for mobilization, awareness and community building among young people in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #9 : Shifting to a Higher Gear: The Saga of Malaysia’s National Carmaker Proton. Newly independent Malaysia’s economic growth was driven mainly by the export of primary products such as rubber, timber and tin. However, in light of the steadily declining non-oil commodity prices in the early 1980s and informed by the ongoing structural transformation in Japan and South Korea, the country’s then Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad reoriented the national growth model to one that put heavy industries—steel, cement, petrochemicals, machinery and equipment and automotive—at the forefront. To garner public support, he promulgated the idea of a “national car”, employing it as an expression of technological modernism and national pride...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #8 : Scrutinizing the DAP’s Success in the 2023 Malaysian State Elections. Using granular polling station and polling stream data for forty-seven seats contested by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) member Democratic Action Party (DAP), this paper explores the effect of this relationship on voter support. This Trends in Southeast Asia finds that, contrary to expectations, DAP actually gained voter support from campaigning with UMNO...

  

ISEAS

Asian Development Outlook, April 2024 (Full Report, Highlights). Growth in developing Asia and the Pacific is expected to remain resilient, propelled by strong domestic demand, improving semiconductor exports, and the ongoing recovery in tourism. Regional inflation will moderate further, as global food and fuel prices stabilize. However, several risks warrant attention. Escalating conflicts and geopolitical tensions may disrupt supply chains and impact commodity prices. Uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy, potential further weakness in the property market in the People’s Republic of China, and extreme weather events could present challenges for the region. Policymakers should intensify efforts to bolster resilience by fostering trade, cross-border investment, and commodity supply networks...

  

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Asian Development Review, Vol. 41, No. 1, March 2024 (Full Report):
The first paper presents harmonized methodologies used to estimate health capacity to work, followed by seven country papers. The four other papers in this issue cover topics related to intergovernmental fiscal systems, population and geospatial data, regional inequalities, and well-being, and the “Belt and Road” initiative.

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