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2017 Highlights

 

 

 

 

 
     

 

2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004

     

 

March, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

Labour Provisions in Trade Agreements with Developing Economies: The Case of TPPA and ASEAN Member Countries, March 2017. Labour provisions have been increasingly included in bilateral and regional trade arrangements. One recent example was the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), signed by twelve countries in 2016 but abandoned by the US in early 2017. Even though the ratification of the TPPA remains uncertain, it has set a precedent in trade policy. This is likely to influence the formulation of trade agreements involving ASEAN countries in the future. This paper examines the implications of the TPPA labour chapter in the context of ASEAN countries that have participated in the agreement. It discusses the extent these countries need to undertake domestic reforms in terms of labour rights and standards.

 

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2017 #2: Investigating the Popularity of Surabaya’s Mayor Tri Rismaharini. Indonesia’s decentralization and direct local elections have produced several credible popular local leaders. One of them is Surabaya’s mayor, Tri Rismaharini (Risma), who gained much attention for her impressive work ethics and her commitment in improving the city. Together with new vice mayor Whisnu Sakti Buana, she was successfully re-elected for the second term in 2015. Examination on the perception and support for her policies on cleanliness, the closure of Dolly (Surabaya’s main red light district) and the management of education reveals that Risma is perceived as a capable leader...

 

ISEAS

Value Chain Analysis of the Wood Processing Industry in the Philippines, February 2017. Wood processing is an important downstream activity of the Philippine forestry sector because it adds economic value to logs, diversifies the products that can be produced from it, and increases the incomes and employment of involved communities. Despite its many economic contributions, however, the wood processing industry has been on the decline for many years now...

 

PIDS

Strengthening Social Enterprises for Inclusive Growth: Philippines, January 2017. Social enterprises have been emerging globally as alternative organizations to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth. Success stories of social enterprises have shown that multiple bottom lines can be achieved; that firms can be vehicles for profit and other moral imperatives. In the Philippines, a resurgence of social enterprises has also been observed. However, the current policy environment in the country is yet unresponsive to the growth of social enterprises...

 

PIDS

Evaluation of the Registry Service for Basic Sectors in Agriculture, January 2017. There are many and varied government programs that target the agriculture and fisheries sector, especially the poor. For more efficient and streamlined program targeting, the Aquino administration has initiated the creation of the Registry Service for Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA), a list of farmers, farm workers, and fisherfolk in the 75 provinces of the country excluding the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and the National Capital Region...

 

PIDS

Agricultural Insurance Program: Lessons from Different Country Experiences, January 2017. While agricultural insurance has long been considered a risk management tool for farmers in both developing and developed economies, policy directions toward sustainability vary across countries. Reviewing the literature provides a comprehensive view of relevant issues, such as objectives of the program, credit access by farmers, program costs, and premium subsidies provided by the national and local governments...

 

PIDS

Opportunities for Strengthening Agriculture Insurance Programs: Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation and LGU Partnerships, January 2017. Providing agricultural insurance to farmers and fisherfolk in the Philippines has been implemented for nearly three decades. While it is agreed that agricultural insurance is crucial in assisting farmers, fisherfolk, and governments in lessening the negative financial impact of natural events, issues of providing premium subsidies and being tied to credit in the Philippines remain to be important policy issues...

 

PIDS

Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Economic Issue of the Day:
  • No.1 Mergers and Acquisitions: Do They Hinder Competition?December 2016
  • No.2 Diving Into the Blue Economy, December 2016
 

PIDS

Graduate Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies: Volume 9 (2014), Volume 8 (2012), Volume 7 No 2 (2011) & No 1 (2010).

 

GJAPS

Chinese Southern Diaspora Studies, Volume 7, 2014-15

 

CSDS/ANU

Empirical Evidence on “Systemic as a Herd”: The Case of Japanese Regional Banks, January 2017.This paper examines a sample of Japanese regional banks’ exposure to market risk factors and how it affects systemic risk through portfolio composition or revenue source, using Adrian and Brunnermeier’s (2016) CoVaR to proxy for systemic risk. We find evidence of “systemic as a herd” behaviour among Japanese regional banks, as portfolio and revenue components associated with market activities exert positive and significant impacts on systemic risk by generating higher comovement among banks, even though they reduce standalone bank risk through portfolio diversification. Further, the marginal effect of an increase in a given banks’ market-related components on systemic risk is larger when the share of the corresponding components is already high among other banks. Our results have important implications from the macro-prudential perspective.

 

MAS

Sri Lanka Suffers from China’s Indian Ocean Strategy, February 2017. Shiyana Gunasekara, former Fulbright Scholar in Sri Lanka, explains that “This should be of particular concern to India, since China has used the Colombo South Container Terminal to dock submarines, as opposed to the Sri Lanka Port Authority’s mooring designated for military vessels."

 

EWC

Power Asymmetry in the China-India Brahmaputra River Dispute, February 2017. Selina Ho, Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore, explains that “Because the current state of Sino-Indian relations is satisfactory for China, its strategy is focused on maintaining the status quo.”

 

EWC

The State of Asia Pacific Free Trade, February 2017. Eduardo Pedrosa, Secretary General of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, explains that “The introduction of more border taxes will raise costs for consumers, and is unlikely to create the kinds of jobs people hope for.”

 

EWC

Foreign Direct Investment and National Security: Regulatory Challenges for the US and Japan, January 2017. Rikako Watai, Professor of Administrative Law at Keio University Law School in Tokyo, explains that “In order to protect national security while pursuing the goals of economic growth and trade expansion, regulations of the US and Japan over FDI will need to be made both stronger and more transparent.”

 

EWC

Does Unplanned Urbanization Pose a Disease Risk in Asia? The Case of Avian Influenza in Vietnam, January 2017.  Cities are expanding very rapidly in Asia, often without adequate housing, transportation, water, or sanitation. These new "peri-urban" areas may be hot spots for disease, both in humans and domestic animals. Research into the possible link between unplanned urban expansion and disease outbreaks compared patterns of land-use change with two major outbreaks in Vietnam of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, subtype H5N1) that killed millions of chickens between 2003 and 2005. Work began by classifying communes into land-use categories: rural, peri-urban, urban, and urban core. The study found that peri-urban communes had at least a 150 percent higher risk of experiencing an H5N1 outbreak than did other types of commune, and that urbanization entails a spatial convergence of several key risk factors for H5N1 transmission...

 

EWC

The Future of the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation: Indonesia’s Chance to Promote a New Era of Regional Law Enforcement Cooperation, February 2017. For 13 years, the Jakarta Centre for Law Enforcement Cooperation (JCLEC) has served as a regional rallying point for much-needed counterterrorism (CT) capacity development and cooperation. Since its inception in 2004, with strong bilateral support from the Australian Government,1 JCLEC’s operating and donor environments have evolved considerably. The strong relationship between the Indonesian National Police (POLRI) and Australian Federal Police (AFP) that has raised and sustained JCLEC is in a state of decline. Regional partners and donors are now considering JCLEC’s future. There are some big decisions to be made, the most pressing of which is whether JCLEC should become a truly regional body or an Indonesian Government institution...

 

ASPI

Escaping the Middle-Income Trap: Innovate or Perish, March 2017. Middle-income countries need to embrace a strategy focused on capability to advance innovation, move up the value chain, and create decent jobs. We analyze the reasons for the middle-income trap in Latin America, where countries have been at the middle-income level for decades, and draw out lessons for Asia. The middle-income trap captures a situation where a middle-income country can no longer compete internationally in standardized, labor-intensive goods because wages are relatively too high, but it also cannot compete in higher value-added activities on a broad enough scale because productivity is relatively too low. The result is slow growth, stagnant or falling wages, and a growing informal economy...

 

ADB

Exchange Rates, International Trade, and Growth: Re-evaluation of Undervaluation, March 2017. Less integrated trading partners usually bear the cost of trade balance expansion. We show that regional trade integration shifts the burden of the exchange rate adjustment towards the less integrated trading partners. Thus, they bear the cost of trade balance expansion, while competitive exchange rate moves vis-a-vis regional trade agreement (RTA) trading partners result in no expansion or deterioration of the overall trade balance. First, using the data on 138 countries that have been involved in regional trade integration through signing regional trade agreements (RTAs) since 1990, we show that upon a 10% depreciation towards non-RTA trading partners results in a 4.4% improvement of the aggregate trade balance...

 

ADB

Son Biased Investments and Old Age Support, March 2017. Parents tend to invest more in sons but receive higher returns from daughters. Son biased investments are common in many Asian countries where sons are customarily responsible for providing old age support to parents. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, I find that parents invested nearly twice more in sons than in daughters in terms of college education spending and marriage gifts value. Conversely, parents received relatively higher marginal returns to investment from daughters than from sons in terms of living proximity, monetary and in-kind transfers, and help with instrumental activities of daily living. Family fixed effects models as well as an instrumental variable strategy are employed to control for the potential endogeneity of parental investments in children...

 

ADB

Structural Transformation, Growth, and Inequality: Evidence from Viet Nam, March 2017. Viet Nam is growing rapidly, but not very inclusively. We examine whether structural transformation leads to growth and income inequality in Viet Nam. Using three rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (2002, 2006, and 2010), we estimate re-centered influence functions to construct a decomposition analysis. Our results indicate that Viet Nam continues to experience sustained structural transformation and growth, but this growth is heterogeneous across regions. The growth exhibits pro-rich gains, with returns to agriculture and manufacturing increasing only for the top 10 to 20 percentiles...

 

ADB

Long-term Care and Pay-for-Performance Programs, March 2017. Despite challenges, pay-for-performance will be increasingly important for improving health-care quality. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has introduced several pay-for-performance programs in the last few years to encourage hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. Some state Medicaid programs have also introduced pay-for-performance for nursing homes. Long-term care providers play an important role in hospital pay-for-performance programs because they can affect the readmission rate and also total episode payments. A good pay-for-performance program will focus on improving quality of care that affects health outcomes...

 

ADB

The Case for Cash, March 2017. Cash does not fuel crime, any more than condoms fuel lust. Cash is an extremely useful social contrivance. Two possible drawbacks of high-denomination cash have recently been discussed by Kenneth Rogoff in his book The Curse of Cash, and echoed by other economists. They are the extensive use of high-denomination cash by criminals and others engaged in illicit and corrupt activities, and the role that cash plays in avoiding deeply negative nominal interest rates imposed on bank accounts...

 

ADB

Drivers of Trade Finance Gaps, February 2017. Trade finance gaps result mainly from bank decisions but solutions must be found elsewhere. Banks are a critical facilitator of trade. Without bank-intermediated trade finance, global exports and imports would come to a halt. This has been apparent during the episodes of credit rationing that accompany financial shocks. But we have little insight into the drivers of rejection pooling by banks in normal times. Using augmented data from a global survey of financial institutions, we test the relative explanatory power of country- and bank-level characteristics as drivers of trade finance rejections in emerging markets and among small and medium-sized enterprises...

 

ADB

Inequalities and Patience in Catching Up, February 2017. Inequality may be a necessary evil for a country to increase welfare faster. We examine how impatience interacts with inequalities in economic development. We consider two distinct groups of households (i.e., with intrinsic inequality), and show that (i) under decreasing marginal impatience (DMI), an unequal society may be preferable for poor households; (ii) poor households tend to benefit more from positive shocks under DMI than constant marginal impatience...

 

ADB

Trade and Sustainable Fisheries, February 2017. Managing fisheries well and sharing trade benefits equitably can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Our ultimate goal is to formulate fish trade policy recommendations that can be deployed to help achieve the relevant Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations (SDGs). Even though all the 17 SDGs are relevant to the issues addressed in this contribution, I will focus on SDG14: Life under the water, and also SDG 1 (No poverty); 2 (Zero hunger); 3 (Gender equality); 4: (Reduced inequality); and 12 (Responsible consumption and production)...

 

ADB

International Trade and Inequality, February 2017. nternational trade's impact on income inequality is mixed; governments need to promote human resource development and income redistribution. The impact of globalization on equality has become a serious concern for many countries. There is growing evidence challenging the theoretical prediction that international trade positively impacts income distribution. We address this subject, surveying the empirical findings on the impact of international trade on inequalities from various perspectives...

 

ADB

Accelerating Urbanization Explained: The Role of Information, February 2017. Information and communication technology speeds up urbanization. We argue that urbanization has accelerated in the last few decades, and that this largely overlooked phenomenon cannot be explained by existing empirical models of urbanization. Consequently, we explicitly bring forward the role of information in driving urbanization, focusing on information and communication technology (ICT), especially the Internet...

 

ADB

Time, Uncertainty, and Trade Flows, February 2017. International transit time matters more for South-South trade while uncertainty matters more for North-North trade. We quantify the impact of international transport time on bilateral trade flows in goods using previously unexploited information drawn from a large dataset on international parcel delivery times. In line with previous work, we find that an extra day spent in international transit reduces bilateral trade by just under one percent at the sample median...

 

ADB

Technical Progress and the Share of Labor Income, February 2017. Most technical progress in the People's Republic of China has been capital biased, leading to greater inequality. Changes in the labor share of national income affect inequality. We investigate the relationship between the labor share and technical progress, based on provincial data from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from 1978 to 2012. Our results show that technical progress in the PRC had been mostly capital biased, contributing to the fast rises in income inequality in the PRC...

 

ADB

Housing and Household Wealth Inequality: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China, February 2017. Housing value appreciation contributes to widening wealth inequality in the People's Republic of China. We examine the issue of the widening wealth inequality in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from the perspective of housing. Using China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data from 2011, we find that the PRC’s wealth inequality including housing is much larger than income inequality...

 

ADB

Facilitate Trade for Development: Aid for Trade, February 2017. Applied holistically and flexibly, aid for trade can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at its core calls to “increase aid-for-trade support for developing countries, in particular least developed countries”. This echoes the aid-for-trade reference in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda of the Third International Conference on Financing for Development...

 

ADB

The Trade and Water Nexus, February 2017. Trade in goods can help ease the water crisis. Understanding the impact of international trade on the use of water resources provides a set of interesting ideas and concepts to further strengthen the global sustainable development agenda. This paper investigates and devises the direct and indirect links between international trade and water resources...

 

ADB

Trade in Health Services and Sustainable Development, February 2017. Trade in health services can help achieve health-related Sustainable Development Goals. Effective health services form the backbone of health interventions. Accessibility, quality, capacity, organization, availability of human and physical resources, and equity in the provision of health services are essential for a healthcare system to deliver desired outcomes...

 

ADB

The Sources of Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition, February 2017. Access to education and finance are key to reducing income inequality. Growing inequality is an important problem for developing countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Narrowing the gap between those at the top and at bottom of the income distribution has become one of governments’ main concerns. To achieve this goal, the sources of income inequality must be identified appropriately...

 

ADB

Trade and the Post-2015 Development Agenda, February 2017. Reducing barriers to trade in services can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Trade can and should play an important role in making progress to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. This includes trade and investment in services, as realizing many of the goals is conditional on improved performance of services sectors in developing countries...

 

ADB

East Asian Integration: Towards an East Asian Economic Community, February 2017. East Asia has the opportunity to build bridges within the region at a time when the United States appears to be building walls around itself. East Asia is a region of great global significance, currently accounting for around 30% of the global economy by most measures, e.g. production, trade, investment, and finance...

 

ADB

Other ADBI Working Papers:  

ADB

APEC Outcomes and Outlook 2016/2017. As APEC heads to Viet Nam in 2017 under the theme, “Creating New Dynamism, Fostering a Shared Future”, a regional agenda with the following priorities are put forward: Promoting sustainable, innovative, and inclusive growth; Deepening regional economic integration; Strengthening MSMEs’ competitiveness and innovation in the digital age; and Enhancing food security and sustainable agriculture in response to climate change. This publication also looks back at the outcomes of APEC Peru 2016 and the the 24th APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Lima, Peru.

 

APEC

Case Study on the Role of Services Trade in Global Value Chains: Health and Medical Services in Malaysia, February 2017. This case study is one out of the four which examines the role of services in global value chains (GVCs), particularly the effects market-opening services development have had on the economy and GVCs. The healthcare sector has been identified as an important sector to developing the competitiveness of the Malaysian economy. This study focuses on the healthcare sector reforms in Malaysia in terms of its health and medical services, in particular policy reforms to increase the participation of healthcare sector in GVC...

 

APEC

APEC Training Course on Common Principles to Shipping Policy, February 2017. This project aims to build APEC economies’ capacity in the area of policy development and contribute to the implementation of “APEC Common Principles to Shipping Policy” in order to enhance the liberalization in maritime sector that was presented by TPTWG. The project ensures the workshop participants are able to enhance understanding of port commercialization, privatization and port investment funding in the Asia Pacific region by providing an opportunity for exchange of experiences and learning among stakeholders.

 

APEC

Enhancing Aviation Connectivity and Emissions Reduction via Implementation of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Assistance Program: Final Site Visit Report - Mexico, February 2017. This report presents the results of two five-day site visits to Mexico City to determine the current state of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) implementation in Mexico, as well as identification of actions that need to be taken to successfully implement PBN in accordance with the ICAO standards, recommended practices and guidance.

 

APEC

Enhancing Aviation Connectivity and Emissions Reduction via Implementation of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) Assistance Program: Final Site Visit Report - Indonesia, February 2017. This report documents the results of two five-day site visits to Jakarta to determine the current state of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) implementation in Indonesia, as well as identification of actions that are needed to successfully implement PBN in accordance with the ICAO’s standards, recommended practices and guidance.

 

APEC

Study on the Application of Global Data Standards for APEC Supply Chain Connectivity (Phase 1), February 2017. This study assesses the cost and benefits of applying GDS in supply chains through the tracking of two GDS pilot projects that were conducted in phase 1. The two pilots covered cross-border shipments of: (1) wine from Australia to Hong Kong, China; and (2) beef from Australia to USA. The pilots in this study demonstrated the time, resources and commitment required by businesses to progress the adoption of GDS...

 

APEC

Final Implementation Report on APEC project "HRD 01 2014A - Systematic Design of Green Skills Development in TVET", January 2017. This report outlines the implementation and outcomes of the project, ‘Systematic Design of Green Skills Development in TVET’, which put forward the development of general contents list of green skills and new directions, and establishment of green skills networks.

 

APEC

Public-Private Partnerships for Transportation in the APEC Region: An Analysis and Literature Review, January 2017. This report identifies gaps, good practices, and capacity-building requirements in the region to promote more effective PPPs in transportation infrastructure, including airports, railroads, roads, seaports, and transit systems. It identifies and examines existing information on project identification, prioritization, and analysis and structuring of PPPs in the APEC region; incorporates specific case studies to highlight factors that led to the successful implementation of transportation PPPs; examines lessons learned that should be considered when implementing future transportation PPPs; and makes preliminary recommendations based on the gaps identified in the region and on standard best practices.

 

APEC

Innovation for Women and Economic Development Facilitating Women's Livelihood Development and Resilience with ICTs, December 2016. The aim of this project is to promote awareness of women’s needs in the APEC region by embracing new devices and services for developing their livelihood, to identify and share pertinent experiences and know-how related to ICT innovations that can be replicated to broaden women’s ability to do business with the global value chain, and to help stakeholders formulate public-private partnerships (PPPs) that can both facilitate sustainable new business models and create an ideal policy environment for women.

 

APEC

Water Energy Nexus: Coal-Based Power Generation and Conversion - Saving Water, December 2016. More than half of the APEC economies generate a significant (>33%) portion of their electricity from coal. However, the focus on clean development necessitates reduction in water consumption for power generation, especially where water resources are stressed. The volume of water required for power generation depends on several factors, such as the generation technology, type of cooling deployed, and site operating conditions...

 

APEC

Study on Infrastructure Investment in the APEC Region, September 2016. This study was started as an APEC project with a view to following up the issues relevant to the Physical Connectivity of the APEC Connectivity Blueprint for 2015-2025. The study looks at (i) how the international and domestic (public and private) financial institutions employ these principles in their policies, and (ii) how these principles work in specific infrastructure projects based on the information provided by volunteered APEC economies and financial institutions.

 

APEC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

February, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Journal of Korean Studies, Volume XX, Number 1, 2016  

IJKS

Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2017Q1, January 2017. According to its High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecast, real GDP is estimated to grow by 2.1% in 16Q4, when compared with the same period in 2015, slightly faster than the 1.9% growth in 16Q3. In 17Q1, real GDP growth is expected to improve to 2.3% when compared with the same period last year. Slowed from the 2.4% growth in 2015, we forecast Hong Kong GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2016 as a whole, upward revised by 0.1 percentage points comparing to our previous forecast. We expect Hong Kong GDP will growth between 1.5% to 2.5% in 2017.

 

HKU

Trump and Strategic Change in Asia, January 2017. As Donald Trump’s administration comes to power in Washington, the postwar security policy of the US is undergoing a monumental transition. The new president’s campaign rhetoric strongly intimated that under his self-proclaimed ‘America first’ posture, traditional American strategy and alliance politics would undergo a major change. His approach to dealing with allies and adversaries will be based less on their traditional roles in US foreign policy and more on how he and his foreign and security policy team view other countries’ willingness to adjust their own policies to conform with a markedly different set of US economic and strategic priorities. This paper looks at North Korea, Southeast Asia, Australia and region-wide concerns. It concludes while Trump postulates an ‘America first’ posture, that hardly represents an ‘Asia last’ prescription. Above all else, Trump’s history is shaped by his reputation in the business world for hard but fluid bargaining to derive optimal results for interest-based objectives.

 

ASPI

Dragon and Eagle Entangled: Sino-US Military Exchanges, 2001–2016, January 2017. US–China military exchanges constitute an important aspect of bilateral relations between the reigning superpower and a fast-rising one. This ASPI Strategy takes stock of Sino-US military contacts over the past 15 years and provides some preliminary assessments of the evolution and implications of this critical aspect of perhaps the most important bilateral relationship in the world today. It seeks to achieve three objectives. First, it identifies, compares and discusses the rationales, expectations and approaches of the two militaries regarding the relationship. Second, it outlines and reviews bilateral Sino-US military contacts from 2001 to 2016, essentially covering both the George W Bush and Barack Obama administrations. Third, it analyses and evaluates US–China military ties over this period and provides some explanations of their promises, progress and pitfalls.

 

ASPI

South Asia's Efforts at Regional Reintegration: Fantasy or Feasible, January 2017. RTariq A. Karim, Bangladesh high commissioner to New Delhi, explains that “The region has been held a hapless prisoner of the Partition syndrome, stymying all efforts at economic reintegration.”

 

EWC

Vacillations and Dramas Exist in Sino-Philippines Relations Too, January 2017. Chu Yin, Associate Professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, explains that “The Philippine attitude towards China has vacillated heavily.”

 

EWC

Putting the Pacific on China's Radar, January 2017. Tristan Kenderdine, Research Director at Future Risk, explains that “The Pacific Islands Forum economies have a huge opportunity to align with China’s global geostrategy through the new capacity cooperation financing mechanisms.”

 

EWC

Trends in Southeast Asia 2017 #1: Johor Remains the Bastion of Kaum Tua. Many scholars on Malaysia have recognized that Salafism-Wahhabism has penetrated substantially into the country’s political and social life. The southern state of Johor has always been considered, and remains, the bastion of kaum tua, with its religious institutions dominated by ulama (religious scholars) who are traditionalist in character but tolerant of religious practices that are infused with local culture and mysticism. These scholars have also tended to maintain conservative attitudes on gender issues, inter-religious relations, and intra-faith differences. The Sultan of Johor appoints the Mufti whose primary role is to issue fatwas (religious rulings) and be the ex-officio of the Johor Islamic Religious Council, the highest Islamic body in the state. Johor’s Muftis are dominantly political quietists, and loyal to the ruling family...

 

ISEAS

Evolving Paradigms in Regional Development in Malaysia, October 2016. In seeking to foster economic growth, policy-makers in Malaysia have also had to grapple conceptually and operationally with how best to deal with differing income levels in different parts of the country. In addition, this challenge has changed in nature over time, in line with the country’s increasing wealth and urbanization, and as understandings of what regional development is and how it should be pursued have evolved. Over the decades, approaches have shifted away from a sole focus on rural development and an aspatial approach to regional development towards a greater emphasis on urbanization and a deeper understanding of the relationship between location and economic growth...

 

ISEAS

The Impact of Local Content Requirements on the Indonesian Manufacturing Industry, October 2016. Local content requirements (LCRs) are prohibited under the WTO law as they violate several WTO provisions including the national treatment principle. Nonetheless, many countries, including Indonesia, persistently use LCRs as part of their industrial policies. Countries implement LCRs for various reasons, including to protect local industries; to create employment; to boost export; to enhance local innovation capacity; and to support broader economic development in the country. This paper examines the impact of LCRs in manufacturing sector in Indonesia, with a particular interest on the machinery and transport industries. Since LCRs discourage foreign imports, hence it is expected they may affect firm’s use of imported inputs...

 

ISEAS

Reassessing Malaysia’s Export Opportunities in the TPP, September 2016. The main economic motivation for forging bilateral, regional and multilateral agreements for Malaysia is to enhance the export opportunities for its firms as it is relatively dependent on trade for supporting growth. There is an extensive literature on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) since negotiations were started five years ago and this literature continues to grow after the agreement was signed in February 2016. The literature identifies some overall gains for Malaysia and some sectoral gains, especially in textiles and apparel. The objective of this paper is to re-assess these export opportunities, using a comparative country perspective since the TPP has 12 founding members...

 

ISEAS

Determinants of Singapore’s Outward FDI, February 2016. Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has been an important element in Singapore’s economic strategy since the 1990s, with the government providing direct and indirect support to support the internationalization process. Recent OFDI trends indicate that China has become an important destination for Singapore. In ASEAN, Singapore’s main investment markets are Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand. The Singapore’s OFDI has important sectoral dimensions, supported by evidence from econometric analysis. It is also important to distinguish between OFDI stock and flows. Further research is needed to understand the erratic behavior of flows in the region.

 

ISEAS

A Review of the Recent Literature on the Institutional Economics Analysis of the Long-Run Performance of Nations, January 2016. This paper reviews the recent (post-2000) literature which assesses the importance of institutions as a factor determining cross-country differences in growth rates or in the contemporary level of “prosperity”. It first sketches how institutional economics has evolved. It then examines critically the methods of analysis employed in the recent literature. The paper finds that this literature has made a major contribution to the analysis of the causes of economic growth but the relative importance of institutions as a determinant of long-run growth and prosperity is still a wide open question.

 

ISEAS

What Lies Ahead for Malaysian Healthcare? December 2015. Healthcare in Malaysia has been characterised by a strong public sector presence where government hospitals and clinics acted as a primary source of care. The healthcare system has also been lauded as a model for other developing countries to follow as it has succeeded in improving the health status of Malaysians over time. With the rising costs of healthcare over the last three decades, the government is now facing increasing pressures to restructure its healthcare system. Social healthcare insurance, corporatisation, and privatisation have been increasingly seen as possible measures to supplement the current healthcare system dominated by the public sector...

 

ISEAS

Malaysia’s Protracted Affirmative Action Policy and the Evolving Bumiputera Commercial and Industrial Community, December 2015. This paper examines the evolution of the Bumiputera Commercial and Industrial Community (BCIC) in the context of Malaysia’s protracted affirmative action from 1971 to the present. It explores, on one hand, how the state has responded to the demands of different Malay pressure groups and, on the other, to external shocks arising from economic globalization. These external factors have compelled the state to deregulate and liberalize its economic policies which run contrary to the goal of promoting the development of a BCIC...

 

ISEAS

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Economic Growth in Developing Asia, January 2017. This survey of sea level rise and its economic impacts provides a clear window to its effects on future economic activities. This paper examines the impact of global sea level rise (SLR) on the economic growth, migration and tourism from various empirical studies and consolidates several sea level projections by 2100 under different scenarios. The paper also points out the regions or countries most vulnerable to SLR include atoll countries and small islands states like Kiribati and Singapore. In addition, it tackles several adaptation cost estimates for selected countries in developing Asia and summarizes adaptive strategies and mitigation as a response to SLR which include retreat, accommodation, and protection. Lastly, it presents policy recommendations for developing Asia to cope with increasing sea levels.

 

ADB

Decoupling Asia Revisited, January 2017. This paper investigates the channels of growth spillovers and estimates the degree of macroeconomic interdependence between emerging East Asia and G3 economies. First, it examines the progress of regional economic integration which has positively impacted the business cycle comovements both intraregionally and interregionally. Second, with the People’s Republic of China playing a central role in the regional production network, its ongoing structural changes will likely influence Asia’s trade patterns and economic integration. Finally, findings from vector autoregression model estimation suggest that the United States economy remains an important source of external demand shock for emerging East Asia, although the impact of the People’s Republic of China has increased sharply.

 

ADB

Spillover Effects of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing on East Asian Economies, January 2017. East Asian economies benefited from Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing policies. This paper explores the spillover effects of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on East Asian economies. Under the new monetary policy regime, the Japanese yen depreciated substantially, raising concerns that it would have a regional beggar-thy-neighbor effect. It is thus important to see what effects the QQE had on neighboring economies...

 

ADB

Infrastructure and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China, January 2017. Returns to infrastructure investment in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been declining; policy makers need to adjust investment decisions. The recent experience of infrastructure investment in the PRC suggests an intertwined relationship between investment, urbanization, and economic growth. In one mechanism, urbanization generates demand for infrastructure investment, which then drives economic growth via various channels including reducing transaction costs and raising productivity. Another mechanism emphasized in this paper is that infrastructure investment can promote urbanization through facilitating economic agglomeration toward hub cities...

 

ADB

Why Geographic Dispersion Before Its Time: Industrial Policy and Economic Geography in the People’s Republic of China, January 2017. Geographic concentration and industrial specialization suffer when local governments follow central governments at the expense of their comparative advantage. We investigate the trends and determinants of geographic concentration and industrial specialization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) using interprovincial panel data for the period from 1999 to 2010. It shows that, after 2005, both geographic concentration and industrial specialization began to decrease, resulting in an increased similarity of provincial industrial structure...

 

ADB

How Would a Slowdown in the People’s Republic of China Affect its Trading Partners? January 2017. A slowdown in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would affect its various trading partners differently. The PRC has become an important importer for many countries. We investigate how turbulence in the PRC can spill over to trading partners through the trade channel. Exports from several East Asian and Southeast Asian countries to the PRC exceed 10% of their gross domestic products. To shed light on economies’ exposures to the PRC, this paper estimates a gravity model. The results indicate that Taipei,China and members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are exposed to the PRC because they produce goods for the PRC market and are exposed to advanced economies because they ship parts and components to the PRC for processing and reexport to the West...

 

ADB

Is the People’s Republic of China’s Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn or a Long-term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis, January 2017. The People’s Republic of China’s current slowdown seems to be part of a long-term trend. Whether the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. Based on provincial panel data, we identify the determinants of productivity and uses counter-factual analysis to decompose the causes of the PRC’s post-crisis slowdown. We find that economic openness has a significantly positive impact on the technical efficiency of production, whereas the income level has a significantly negative effect...

 

ADB

Exploring the Trade–Urbanization Nexus in Developing Economies: Evidence and Implications, January 2017. Trade in cereals is critical to urban development. Developing countries have seen a rapid rise in population urbanization in the past decades. At the same time, they have participated actively in the process of globalization. However, possible interlinks between population urbanization and trade openness in developing economies have been ignored by present literature. We propose a simple framework explaining the cereals trade–population urbanization nexus, showing how cereals supply constrains population urbanization and how international trade can change this constraint...

 

ADB

Federalism, Fiscal Space, and Public Investment Spending, January 2017. States tend to contain public investment spending to comply with fiscal rules. The core emphasis of rules-based fiscal legislation at the subnational level in India is to achieve debt sustainability through a numerical ceiling on borrowing and the use of borrowed resources for public capital investment by phasing out revenue deficits. Using the Arellano Bond Panel estimation, this paper examines whether the application of fiscal rules has resulted in an increase in the fiscal space for public capital investment spending in major Indian states. This analysis shows that by controlling other factors, there is a negative relationship between fiscal rules and public capital investment spending at the state level during the rules-based fiscal regime.

 

ADB

Trade and Trade Policy Issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals, January 2017. A well-designed trade policy could improve domestic regulations and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goal's ultimate aim of a “better life”. This paper presents an overview of the trade and policy issues in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It assesses the dramatic changes in the political, economic, and business background from the early 2000s (shaping the MDGs) to the early 2010s (designing the SDGs). These changes rarely get the attention they merit, despite their profound consequences on how to use—or not use—trade policies for promoting development...

 

ADB

Spillover Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific, Janaury 2017. he United States’ unconventional monetary policies have led to rapid capital inflows, strong currency appreciation, and asset price and credit booms in Asia and the Pacific. We assess the evolution of spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Asia and the Pacific region, and evaluate the impact on and implications for the macroeconomy. We develop a Panel Vector Auto Regression model for the Asia and Pacific region for a period covering data from first quarter 2000 until first quarter 2015. We split the overall sample into two subsets: the Pre-Crisis (2000q1–2006q4) and Post-Crisis (2009q1–2015q1) samples. We identify unconventional monetary policy shocks with a shadow interest rate estimated by Krippner (2013)...

 

ADB

Highlights of the International Conference on Financial Cycles, Systemic Risk, Interconnectedness, and Policy Options for Resilience, Published 2016. The conference held on 8–9 September 2016 strengthened understanding of how systemic risks build up and spread across different financial networks. This conference was organized by ADB in collaboration with the Institute of Global Finance, University of New South Wales and sponsored by the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bloomberg. It provided a venue for fruitful discussion among members of the academia, central bankers, regulators, and international financial institutions to build resilience and safeguard stability in the region. The conference will also form the foundation for one of ADB’s flagship publications, the Asian Economic Integration Report 2017.

 

ADB

Import Licensing Regimes: An APEC Snapshot and Considerations for their Use, January 2017. This Policy Brief looks at the use of import licensing in APEC, examining the reasons behind such measures as well as the costs incurred. Alternate policy measures that can be used in place of import licenses are discussed as well.

 

APEC

Trade of Fishery Products and Fisheries Subsidies in APEC, January 2017. This Policy Brief reviews the trend of trade of fishery products, as well as various trade measures, including tariffs and non-tariff measures in the APEC region. Finally, the Policy Brief discusses the current situation of fisheries subsidies within the APEC region and their implications on the sustainability of fish stocks.

 

APEC

Survey on the Readiness for Joining Cross Border Privacy Rules System - CBPRs, January 2017. This report provides the result of a survey conducted to determine the readiness of the 21 APEC member economies in participating in APEC CBPRS. The survey was designed to find out if an economy could satisfy basic requirements to participate: the existence of privacy law, enforcement authority on privacy, trust-mark providers; the consistency between privacy legislation with APEC Privacy Framework.

 

APEC

Developing Traveler-Friendly Airports to Improve the Passenger Experience in the APEC Region: A Best Practices Report, January 2017. This report contains the findings of field assessments conducted in five volunteer airports in the APEC region. Considered a crucial aspect of determining what constitutes a favorable passenger experience, the objectives of the field assessments were to gain an in-depth understanding of international/domestic and arrival/departure passenger process flows and to observe services that are provided to passengers throughout the airport...

 

APEC

Energy and Economic Competitiveness, October 2016. This study analyses how the fluctuations of energy prices would affect macroeconomic situations, industrial sectors, trade and competitiveness of APEC economies.

 

APEC

Plans for Fuel Supplies during Disasters in Expectation of Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes, October 2016. This report examines the specific measures being taken by the government and private sector in the control of damage in preparation for Nankai megathrust earthquakes based on their learnings from the Great East Japan Earthquake. The report provides damage forecasts and summarizes measure announcements made by the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

 

APEC

Working Papers of Institute of Policy Studies, Singapore:  

IPS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

January, 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2016.The Singapore economy expanded by 1.1% in Q3 2016 compared with the same period last year. This was lower than the median forecast of 1.7% reported in the Sep 2016 Survey. The respondents expect the GDP growth to come in at 1.4% in 2016, a decline from the 1.8% median forecast in the previous survey...

 

MAS

MAS Financial Stability Review, November 2016. Prolonged weak growth and low interest rates have heightened global financial stability concerns. Rising political risks could impede effective policy-making. Lacklustre growth could weaken corporates’ and households’ debt servicing abilities, and in turn weigh on banks’ asset quality. Bank profitability has also been squeezed by low interest margins, reducing banks’ ability to build up buffers to protect against shocks. Low interest rates could drive risk-taking behaviour and fuel asset price bubbles, with attendant risks to financial stability. On the other hand, the prospect of faster-than-expected interest rate normalisation by the US Federal Reserve and heightened global political risks could lead to capital flow and currency volatility...

 

MAS

Singapore Corporate Debt Market Review 2016. Amidst the global economic slowdown, debt issuance globally declined by 13%1 to USD 5.3 trillion in 2015, compared to USD 6.1 trillion a year before.
In Asia, local currency issuance fell 46%2 to USD 407 billion in 2015 (2014: USD 758 billion), while G3 issuance held up better, falling 13% to USD 183 billion (2014: USD 210 billion). Yet Asian bonds continued to grow as an asset class – net inflows into Asia Ex-Japan bond funds grew from USD 0.18 billion in 2014 to USD 4.3 billion in 2015...

 

MAS

Liquidity and Policy Analyses for Platform Trading of OTC Derivatives: A Perspective of Smaller Markets, December 2016. This paper analyses the criteria for assessing when it might be appropriate to mandate the trading of standardised over-the-counter derivatives on trading platforms, in the context of smaller OTCD markets. Based on a review of academic literature, this paper examines the benefits and the challenges of a trading mandate and puts forward a two-stage assessment framework, comprising a trading infrastructure test and a product test. These tests seek to identify the appropriate conditions for implementation of a trading mandate, taking into account the associated risks of market fragmentation and regulatory arbitrage...

 

MAS

Azerbaijan’s Formula: Secular Governance and Civic Nationhood, November 2016. In January 2016, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev designated 2016 the “Year of Multiculturalism.” This took place at a time when Azerbaijan’s neighborhood has experienced a trend toward less rather than more separation between religion and state; and toward more ethnic rather than civic conceptions of nationhood. This trend has been particularly pronounced in two powers with whom Azerbaijan is closely connected, Russia and Turkey. Yet Azerbaijan has chosen to go in the other direction, doubling down on the country’s commitment to secular governance and an inclusive conception of the nation...

 

ISDP

Kazakhstan 2041: the Next Twenty-Five Years, October 2016. Kazakhstan has come a long way in the twenty five years since it gained sovereignty. The leadership can point to impressive economic development, stability, strengthened sovereignty, and respect for “brand Kazakhstan” on the international arena. Looking to the next twenty-five years and beyond, Kazakh authorities have set forth an ambitious vision for turning the country into one of the most developed in the world. On the road ahead, old challenges will remain and new ones will doubtless emerge. As it embarks on its further development Kazakhstan will be confronted by several crucial social, economic, political, and international realities...

 

ISDP

Rethinking Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Asia: Balancing Economic and Environmental Objectives, Published 2016. The OECD or ‘standard’ model of electricity sector reforms has been widely adopted in non-OECD Asian countries since the 1990s. However, despite two decades of attempts at reforms, no notable progress has been made towards the original objectives of reform. Whilst in OECD countries, reforms were implemented against excess capacity and stable institutions, in developing non-OECD Asian countries they were implemented against chronic electricity shortages, fiscal constraints, weak institutions, and complex political factors...

 

ASARC

Renewable Energy Trade Within Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Countries: An Exploratory Analysis, Published 2016. Though the availability of cost effective and potentially efficient renewable energy technologies is a necessary condition for the promotion of green growth nationally and internationally, it is the intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) to make use of such technologies is crucial. International trade in low carbon renewable energy goods provides an effective way of achieving INDCs nationally, even when individual countries may not have sufficient infrastructure readily available to them to fulfill INDCs...

 

ASARC

An Analysis of the Paddy/Rice Value Chains in Sri Lanka, Published 2016. This paper examines whether the structure of the paddy / rice market in Sri Lanka is competitive and efficient particularly by undertaking two tracer surveys. From these surveys it was revealed that the profit margins accruing to almost all the players involved in the paddy/rice value chains of both Nadu and Samba varieties are not excessive when compared with the average bank lending rate of 15 percent. The results of the tracer surveys also show that both the Nadu and Samba paddy/ rice value chains are economically efficient...

 

ASARC

After Mosul: Australia's Strategy to Counter the Islamic State, December 2016. As the battle for Mosul unfolds in Iraq, Australian policymakers must carefully consider Australia’s long-term objectives in the Middle East. One critical question needs to be answered because it’s central to the process of making strategy. What is the Australian policy objective: to what end are our forces there? Once that question is answered, we can decide what comes next. The world has watched the Islamic State (IS) evolve from a regional insurgency to a proto-state and global terrorist organisation that poses a significant threat to Australia’s national security. In the future, the group is likely to revert to insurgency operations to ensure its survival, but the global terrorist threat will remain...

 

ASPI

Bilateral and Regional Implications of the U.S.-Philippine Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, December 2016. Renato De Castro, Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, explains that “A rotational U.S. military presence will strengthen the Philippines’ resolve to uphold its territorial claims in the South China Sea and test American credibility in honoring its defense commitment to the country.”

 

EWC

Australia-Philippines Relationship Status: "It's Complicated", December 2016 Charmaine Deogracias and Orrie Johan, Journalist at Vera Files, and researcher at the East-West Center in Washington, respectively, explain that “Relations are also affected by Duterte’s skepticism of Australian and U.S. resolve in supporting the Philippines, and by Australia’s concerns about a shift by Duterte away from the U.S. and towards China. These trends pose major challenges for Philippines-Australia relations and risk causing them to deteriorate.”

 

EWC

Can China Participate in Middle East Stabilization Efforts by Supporting Regional Connectivity? December 2016. Yoram Evron, Visiting Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington, explains that “If China takes a prominent role in the establishment and operation of international transportation lines, this would make Beijing a de facto stakeholder in and facilitator of regional stability and development.”

 

EWC

Standard-Essential Patents within Global Networks--An Emerging Economies Perspective, December 2016. This paper addresses two unresolved issues. First, most of the existing SEP research has focused on advanced countries. It is time to address growing concerns in emerging and developing countries that SEP-related market failures may create added uncertainty for their companies, generating unpredictable and often quite significant costs and delaying market entry of their products. Second, such SEP-related market failures are even more important in a world where increasingly complex and diverse global corporate networks integrate dispersed production, engineering, product development and research across geographic borders...

 

EWC

Asian Economic Integration Report 2016 (Highlights, Full Report). With the continued anemic global economic recovery, trade growth in Asia and the Pacific decelerated in 2015, falling further behind growth in gross domestic product. Asia’s trade growth by volume decelerated to 2.3% in 2015, below the 2.7% growth in global trade, and falling further below the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 5.3%. Developing Asia’s exports grew 3.0% in 2015, on par with advanced economies. But imports grew a meager 1.7% compared with 4.5% in advanced economies...

 

ADB

Structural Change and Moderating Growth in the People’s Republic of China: Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond, Published 2016. This report assesses the effects of these changes on the rest of the region and the world, looking closely at various channels of transmission including commodity prices, trade, and production. The continued moderation of growth in the PRC could knock off a third of a percentage point a year in growth for the rest of developing Asia over the next 2 years. Changes in PRC economic activity significantly affect commodity prices, but the estimated impact varies by commodity. This report discusses how developing Asia’s policy-makers can respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by these changes.

 

ADB

Pacific Economic Monitor, December 2016. This edition of the Pacific Economic Monitor focuses on niche product development. The Pacific is increasingly becoming known worldwide for products such as coffee, chocolate, chili, vanilla, cosmetics, and signature clothing. These products, while produced at low volumes, can fetch premium prices by trading on the unique stories of their development, and exotic local ingredients derived from the pristine Pacific environment. Collective efforts to improve product quality and increased access to trade finance are but two of the ways through which Pacific exporters can harness these opportunities...

 

ADB

Do Natural Disasters Change Savings and Employment Choices? Evidence from Bangladesh and Pakistan, December 2016. Bangladesh and Pakistan are among the countries most vulnerable to livelihood risks arising from frequent exposure to large-scale natural disasters. We study household responses to floods and storms in terms of short-term changes in their dependence on agriculture. Results show that rural households temporarily move away from agriculture in response to disaster then come back after a short period of time. They therefore remain vulnerable to climatic extremes. Development of nonfarm employment opportunities in rural areas can therefore be a useful public policy to lower their dependence on agriculture and reduce their income and livelihood vulnerabilities.

 

ADB

The Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Developing Asia, December 2016. This study uses an economy–energy–climate model to assess the long-term effects of Paris Agreement pledges on developing Asia, in comparison with business as usual and more ambitious scenarios to limit warming to 2°C. It finds potential for modest macroeconomic costs of ambitious mitigation, but that clean energy investment needs are substantial. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and cobenefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region—if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented to allow mitigation to occur where it is least costly.

 

ADB

Natural Disaster Shocks and Macroeconomic Growth in Asia: Evidence for Typhoons and Droughts, December 2016. Under a looming threat of climate-related extreme events, estimates of the effects of typhoons and droughts show declines in national incomes compared to predisaster trends persisting up to 2 decades. In Asia, damages from typhoons double relative to a unit increase in wind speed with mean damages projected to rise from 5% to 50%. This could undo development gains in vulnerable developing Asian economies and affect mostly the poor. Relocation, social safety nets, and disaster insurance or similar ex ante mechanisms are needed to cope with increased disaster risks.

 

ADB

Cobenefits and Trade-Offs of Green and Clean Energy: Evidence from the Academic Literature and Asian Case Studies, December 2016. This paper assesses the positive cobenefits of promoting green and clean energy in Asia, and discusses four case studies where cobenefits have been delivered in practice in Indonesia, People's Republic of China, Japan, and Singapore. It first defines what is meant by “clean” energy across the four technological systems of cooking, renewable electricity, energy efficiency, and urban transport. It summarizes at least four general types of cobenefits to investing in these systems...

 

ADB

Effects of Temperature Shocks on Economic Growth and Welfare in Asia, December 2016. This study finds that overall economic productivity of developing Asia would be at least 10% lower by 2100 relative to a business as usual scenario as it examines the nonlinear response effect of economic growth to historic temperature and precipitation fluctuations. This paper confirms that aside from the significant effect of rising temperature on agricultural production, industrial production and investment endeavors also serve as other potential channels through which temperature significantly affects overall economic productivity. It empirically analyzes policy measures and factors that could help countries mitigate consumption volatility driven by climate change-related events. Likewise, government plays a critical role in moderating the negative impact of rising temperature in both output and consumption.

 

ADB

Governance, Vulnerability to Climate Change, and Green Growth: International Evidence, November 2016. We find that governance has a positive effect on environmental performance and vulnerability to climate change has a negative effect. Promoting good governance and reducing climate change vulnerability can thus contribute to a cleaner environment. We find qualitatively similar results for the subsample of high-income countries, but governance has an insignificant effect for the subsamples of upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income, and low-income countries. High-income countries have strong environmental policies to protect the environment whereas other countries need to strengthen their relatively weak environmental policies.

 

ADB

How to Fill the Working-Age Population Gap in Asia: A Population Accounting Approach, November 2016. World populations are aging—with the speed and extent of the demographic shift varying across developed and developing economies. Extending the retirement age is expected to reduce the dependency ratio by increasing the number of workers relative to the number of consumers. Meanwhile, increasing immigration will require proactive efforts in both host and source economies. While increasing fertility rates may entail additional short–term burdens on the economy, policy makers need to take urgent action to avoid being trapped in the vicious cycle of shrinking populations and rising dependency ratios.

 

ADB

Trade, Poverty Eradication, and the Sustainable Development Goals, December 2016. Trade can both benefit and hurt poor households; sound complementary policies are needed. We investigate if trade can help achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of poverty eradication using microeconomic and macroeconomic mechanisms and the effects of trade and trade policy on consumer prices, producer prices, and wages...

 

ADB

Two Stages of Economic Development, December 2016. The People’s Republic of China is at the intersection of two stages of economic development. We suggest that the development process of a less-developed country can be divided into two stages, which demonstrate significantly different properties in areas such as structural endowments, production modes, income distribution, and the forces that drive economic growth...

 

ADB

The Effect of Opposite Sex Siblings on Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills in Early Childhood, December 2016. Having a sister improves learning for boys in early childhood. We investigate the effect of having opposite sex siblings on cognitive and noncognitive skills of children in the United States at the onset of formal education. Our identification strategy rests on the assumption that, conditional on covariates, the sibling sex composition of the two firstborn children in a family is arguably exogenous...

 

ADB

Trade, Infrastructure, and Development, December 2016. This paper surveys the literature on trade and development, especially on complementarities associated with trade infrastructure. The empirical literature shows that, on average, trade causes growth, but the relationship is far from homogeneous across countries since initial conditions matter. Although the empirical literature shows that investment in soft and hard infrastructure has an unambiguously positive impact on trade flows, the theoretical literature argues that priority should be given to investments in national rather than international infrastructure in countries with relatively poor national infrastructure. This paper finds that data support this prediction.

 

ADB

Determinants of Tenure Choice in Japan: What Makes You a Homeowner? December 2016. Income level and family size mainly determine homeownership in Japan. Despite Japan’s highly developed housing market, little is known about the determinants of renter-to-homeowner tenure transition. Exploiting the Japanese longitudinal household data of the Keio Household Panel Survey (2004–2013), this paper aims to close this gap. Our results show that income level and increase in family size are the strongest determinants for homeownership in Japan...

 

ADB

Poverty and Ethnicity in Asian Countries, December 2016. Disadvantaged ethnic groups are poorer because of inequalities in education, regional development, and urban-rural gaps. We compare the extent and the nature of the higher prevalence of poverty among disadvantaged ethnic groups in six Asian countries using demographic surveys. We first estimate a composite wealth index as a proxy for economic status, and analyze the magnitude of the ethnic gap in absolute and relative poverty levels across six countries and different ethnicities in those countries...

 

ADB

Poverty and Nutrition: A Case Study of Rural Households in Thailand and Viet Nam, December 2016. Income growth alone does not improve nutrition rates. We analyze the link between nutrition and poverty in two Asian countries where monetary-based poverty reduction was especially successful. Thailand and Viet Nam are two emerging market economies where poverty rates are now below 10% and are declining further. Despite this success, it is not clear to what extent it has translated into similar improvements in the nutritional situation of the people, and especially of children...

 

ADB

Climate Change and Vulnerability to Poverty: An Empirical Investigation , December 2016. Climate change puts people at greater risk of becoming poor. Scientists estimate that anthropogenic climate change leads to increased surface temperature, rising sea levels, and more frequent extreme weather and climate events, among others. We investigate how climate change can potentially change vulnerability to poverty using a panel data set in Indonesia. We focus on the effect of drought and flood, two of the commonly observed disasters there. Our simulation results indicate that vulnerability to poverty in Indonesia may increase substantially as a result of climate change.

 

ADB

Financial Inclusion, Financial Regulation, and Education in Bangladesh, December 2016. Education and financial literacy levels mainly determine financial inclusion. Like in many other countries, inclusive finance for inclusive growth has become a policy issue in Bangladesh following the global financial crisis in 2008. Over the past 10 years, intensity of financial deepening and access to financial services has increased. Both banks and microfinance institutions have contributed to higher intensity. A recent study shows that around 40% of the adult population and 75% of households have access to financial services in Bangladesh...

 

ADB

Key Issues of Central and Local Government Finance in the People’s Republic of China, December 2016. Innovative fundraising and financing channels will help upgrade local government infrastructure and public services. Fiscal decentralization has been established in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but crises emerge at the local government level due to remaining problems of the fiscal administration system of tax allocation and the impact of replacing the business tax with a value added tax. The PRC taxation system requires readjustment and local governments have begun to focus on innovative financing models...

 

ADB

Spillovers of the United States’ Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: The Bank Lending Channel, December 2016. Spillover effects of the United States’ unconventional monetary policy on the Asian credit market are large but differ depending on the type, purpose, and terms of loans. This paper assesses the spillover effects of the United States’ unconventional monetary policy (i.e., quantitative easing programs adopted during 2008–2014) on the Asian credit market. With a focus on cross-border bank lending, we employed firm-level loan data with regard to the syndicated loan market and measured the international bank lending channel through changes in United States dollar-denominated loans extended to Asian borrowers...

 

ADB

Measuring Multidimensional Poverty in Three Southeast Asian Countries using Ordinal Variables, December 2016. This paper aims to highlight the contribution of the recent methodological refinements of poverty measures based on counting approaches using ordinal variables to the understanding of the evolution of poverty in Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Using the general framework proposed by Silber and Yalonetzky (2013), this paper compares multidimensional poverty measures such as the Multidimensional Poverty Index used by the UNDP (an index based on the approach of Alkire and Foster [2011]) with others which are sensitive to the distribution of deprivation counts across individuals...

 

ADB

APEC Low-Carbon Town Indicator System Guideline (First Edition), November 2016 The APEC Low-Carbon Town Indicator (LCT-I) System Guideline has been developed to work with The Concept of the Low-Carbon Town in the APEC Region or the Concept. The LCT- I System is a self-assessment tool to assess and monitor the progress of each LCT development project that is based upon the concept. The users can easily carry out an assessment with the attached LCT-I evaluation sheet as it was designed as simple as possible.

 

APEC

The Concept of the Low-Carbon Town in the APEC Region (Sixth Edition): Executive Summary, Volume I and Volume II, November 2016. It aims to promote the development of low-carbon towns in the APEC region by providing a basic principle that can assist the central and local government officials of the member economies in planning effective low-carbon policies and in formulating an appropriate combination of low-carbon measures while taking socio-economic conditions and city-specific characteristics into consideration. The report consists of Volume I: Main Chapter, which provides an overview of the concept, including basic approach to develop the LCT, measures to use in the development of LCT and evaluation of the effect of low-carbon measures; and Volume II: Low-Carbon Measures, which presents low-carbon measures with their applicability and case examples.

 

APEC

Study on Systematic Solution for Promoting Capacity Building of Low-Carbon Town in APEC Economies, November 2016. The study presents a systematic investigation of low-carbon towns’ construction capacity by employing literature review, policy research, assessment model, case studies and demonstrations of China’s low-carbon city construction. The research outlines implications for building low-carbon cities and towns in the APEC region, identifies factors impacting capacity building, and discusses ways to take full advantage of the driving paths in government, enterprise, research institutes, and social and public levels.

 

APEC

APEC Guideline for Quality Electric Power Infrastructure, October 2016. Taking into account the wide spectrum of power infrastructure from generators to national grid, this Guideline focuses on securing quality of individual “thermal power plant”. It aims to facilitate the readers’ understanding on how electric power infrastructure is built and operated, share the best practice of electric power infrastructure between readers, and provide useful suggestions of methodologies for securing the quality of electric power infrastructure. 

 

APEC

Develop Air Connectivity in the Region: Executive Summary and Economy Reports, October 2016: Executive Summary, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Chinese Taipei, Thailand, United States, and Viet Nam. This executive summary and 21 customized APEC economy reports complement the consolidated report, Develop Air Connectivity in the APEC Region. The summary and economy reports provide greater details and market demand-driven recommendations for new non-stop flights, hubs, and improved flight schedule connection times. This can help airlines and regulators make faster decisions to improve air connectivity across the APEC Region.

 

APEC

Develop Air Connectivity in the Region: Consolidated Report, October 2016. This report consolidates the outcomes of a market assessment and analysis research conducted with the aim to develop air connectivity in the APEC region. True Origin/Destination air traffic demand between the APEC economies was calibrated with existing flights, seat capacity and flight schedules, using IATA's travel intelligence software. The results were aligned with an analysis of new aircraft with increased flying range. To achieve air connectivity with non-stop flights between every APEC economy, there are 210 economy pairs possible of which: 131 (62%) are connected with non-stop flights and 79 (38%) are not connected with non-stop flights. Of the 79 economy pairs that are currently not connected with non-stop flights, 47 (22%) cannot be connected due to aircraft technology limitations, and 6 (3%) can be connected based on the market demand recommendations of this project.

 

APEC

Promotion of Regional Economic Integration by Developing APEC Gateway Port Connectivity, December 2016. This study provides information on the underlying drivers of gateway port functions, and how such functions of a port can facilitate trade and promote economic growth. The best practices and development trends of gateway ports are reviewed, and their success factors and challenges are identified. Tools and indices to measure gateway port performance are discussed, and this discussion contributes to the recommendations of technical and political recommendations of developing gateway port functions.

 

APEC

RAASR Individual Action Plans, November 2016. This report highlights the 21 member economies’ commitment to APEC's structural reform agenda as outlined in the RAASR.

 

APEC

Hmong Studies Journal, Vol. 17, 2016  

HSJ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004