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May, 2019 Current Topics		Source

	New Caledonia’s Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications, May 2019. After a long history of difference, including civil war, over independence, New Caledonia’s 4 November 2018 referendum began a self-determination process, but ended 30 years of stability under peace accords. Persistent ethnic division over independence revealed by this first vote may well be deepened by May 2019 local elections. Two further referendums are possible, with discussion about future governance, by 2022, amid ongoing social unease. Bitter areas of difference, which had been set aside for decades, will remain front and centre while the referendum process continues...	Lowy
	Taiwan's New Southbound Policy: Limited Progress and Future Concerns, April 2019. After three years, the expected effects of Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy” (NSP) appear less substantial than hoped. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government’s NSP has put on its radar screen a few South and Southeast Asian countries and attracted some attention within Taiwan, but it has not been able to transfer a substantial part of Taiwan’s economic activities from mainland China to the NSP-identified countries and regions...	EWC
	The New Southbound Policy and Legal Constraints to Indonesia-Taiwan Education Exchange, April 2019. The Taiwan government is increasingly aware of the need to improve its soft power by promoting inter-state and society cooperation in various fields, including education and tourism. This effort is manifest in the New Southbound Policy (NSP). In the field of education, Taiwan’s government has created the Industry Academy Collaboration Program for foreign students, which has fulfilled two purposes: helping Taiwanese universities recruit foreign students, and providing Taiwanese industries with skilled workers through internships in the scholarship program...	EWC
	Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy: Accomplishments and Perceptions, April 2019. The Tsai Ing-wen administration’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) promises long-term gains for Taiwan and its population. If effectively executed, the policy can help bolster Taiwan’s relationship with its immediate neighbors, moderate some of the economic and strategic risks it faces, and even complement Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy. Using NSP engagement to push labor, environmental, and intellectual property regulation reforms could even help make Taiwan CPTPP compliant. Yet, the policy seems to face an ambivalent and somewhat muted public response within Taiwan itself...	EWC
	Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy in the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific, April 2019. During her inauguration speech as president of Taiwan in May 2016, Tsai Ing-wen announced her administration’s revitalized New Southbound Policy (NSP) to engage countries in South and Southeast Asia, and Australasia. More than a year later, in November 2017, President Donald Trump laid out the American vision for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) region — an area stretching from the U.S. west coast to the west coast of India. Both the United States and Taiwan have adopted engagement strategies focused on strengthening ties with countries in the Indo-Pacific region...	EWC
	Strategic Highlights of Taiwan’s People-Centered New Southbound Policy, April 2019. Launched in 2016, Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) is now in its third year. Regarded as Taiwan’s “regional strategy for Asia,” the NSP is the island’s response to regional dynamics in South and Southeast Asia. The NSP also articulates Taiwan’s strategic interests and practices echoing major powers’ approaches and initiatives toward the region. The strategic highlights of the NSP are characterized by the “4S” approach: systemizing Taiwan’s regional strategy for Asia, strategizing Taiwan’s importance, synergizing public and private partnerships, and structuring social links between Taiwan and regional neighbors...	EWC
	Indo-Pacific Development and Stability as Context for Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy, April 2019. The importance of Southeast Asia is supported by the dynamic energy of its emerging markets (ASEAN is now the world’s 5th largest economy and 3rd largest market), the integration of the transnational development hinterland (via the advancement of the Master Plan of ASEAN Connectivity), and its institutional arrangements in maintaining regional stability (the so-called ASEAN-led long peace). These three aspects are all closely related to the ASEAN-led regional integration processes, which is yet another overarching effort supporting the growth of the region...	EWC
	The United States and Japan Should Engage Southeast Asia through Science Diplomacy, April 2019. Withdrawal from major international agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the proliferation of “America First” rhetoric, and an apparent return to economic bilateralism under the Trump administration have eroded American soft power. Compared to 2013, fewer respondents in 2018 from Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan expressed belief that US foreign policy takes the interests of their countries into consideration...	EWC
	Challenges for US-Japan Collaboration on Southeast Asia’s Energy Infrastructure, April 2019. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been the headline response to the vast infrastructure gap that faces developing Asia, especially countries in Southeast Asia. But no country is capable of single-handedly filling the gap, and BRI is prompting other donor governments to give higher priority to infrastructure assistance. Under the Trump Administration, the United States has overhauled its development finance strategy through passing the BUILD Act and establishing various economic initiatives under the Indo-Pacific Strategy...	EWC
	Huawei and Telefunken: Communications Enterprises and Rising Power Strategies, April 2019. This Strategic Insight, examines Huawei through a historical lens. It identifies strong parallels between the industrial policy adopted by Germany in the early twentieth century to cultivate a ‘national champion’ in communications – Telefunken – and the Chinese party-state’s support for Huawei since its formation in 1987. It demonstrates that Huawei and Telefunken both benefitted from guaranteed government orders for their hardware, protected domestic markets, long-term backing from national financial institutions, and diplomatic support for overseas expansion. These policies increased the firm’s competitiveness on the world market, facilitating the development of national capacity in advanced communications. The development of capacity in communications brings strategic benefits for a rising power – allowing it to escape dependence on the outside world for vital infrastructure, build capabilities with potential military applications, and build geostrategic influence in key regions.	ASPI
	Mapping China's Tech Giants, Published 2019. Chinese technology companies are becoming increasingly important and dynamic actors on the world stage. They’re making important contributions in a range of areas, from cutting-edge research to connectivity for developing countries, but their growing influence also brings a range of strategic considerations. The close relationship between these companies and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) raises concerns about whether they may be being used to further the CCP’s strategic and geopolitical interests. The CCP has made no secret about its intentions to export its vision for the global internet. Officials from the Cyber Administration of China have written about the need to develop controls so that ‘the party’s ideas always become the strongest voice in cyberspace.’ This includes enhancing the ‘global influence of internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu [and] Huawei’ and striving ‘to push China’s proposition of internet governance toward becoming an international consensus’...	ASPI
	Politics in Indonesia: Resilient Elections, Defective Democracy, April 2019. Incumbent President Joko Widodo is the front-runner to defeat long-time rival Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election on 17 April. Constrained by compromises and knocked off balance by the rise of identity politics, if Jokowi wins a second (and final) term, he is unlikely to make significant progress on much-needed economic, legal, and political reforms. Despite these concerns, there is hope for the future with a new generation of politicians from outside the elite now seeking to follow Jokowi’s path to national office. Indonesia’s future will depend on how far they use their electoral mandates to shake up a defective system...	Lowy
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #8: The Politics of Thai Buddhism under the NCPO Junta. The past two decades have been a time of turmoil in Thailand’s religious affairs. Disputes, debates and controversies concerning the administration of Buddhism, Thailand’s national religion by tradition, have erupted more and more frequently. This chronic and unresolvable conflict originates from Thai Buddhists’ inability to achieve a broad consensus on religious reform. Under the governance of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) junta that came to power in 2014, the fierce struggle concerning Buddhist reform seemed to subside...	ISEAS
	Manufacturing Performance and Services Inputs: Evidence from Malaysia, February 2019. The Malaysian economy has been deindustrializing since the late 1990s. The relative decline of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector has led to a decline in the trade ratio. This could reflect a decline in the country’s participation in manufacturing global value chains. The services sector makes important contributions to the performance of the manufacturing sector in terms of productivity and exporting. Therefore, any policy attempt to enhance manufacturing performance is likely to require improvements in the performance of the services sector. This is particularly important as there is evidence that the country’s manufacturing sector is increasingly dependent on services generated domestically.	ISEAS
	Economic Voting and the End of Dominant Party Rule in Malaysia, February 2019. This essay seeks to empirically examine economic and non-economic factors that determined the outcomes of the fourteenth general election in Malaysia. In the election, the incumbent coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) which had ruled the country since its independence in 1957 was defeated. Relatively robust economic growth in months prior to the elections failed to bolster voter support for the incumbent coalition. Unemployment and inequality further eroded voter support for BN. The election also saw a decline in the support of the Bumiputra community and East Malaysian voters for BN. A key factor in the end of BN rule was the defections of elite politicians from UMNO. Mahathir Mohamad, a former Prime Minister and UMNO President, together with other former UMNO stalwarts joined the opposition coalition and mobilized voters against BN.	ISEAS
	Religion in Singapore: The Private and Public Spheres, March 2019. This paper analyses Singapore data from a multi-country survey conducted in late 2018 as part of the International Social Survey Program Study of Religion (2018). The Singapore component of the survey, conducted face-to-face, examined the views of a random sample of 1,800 Singaporean residents on issues relating to religious beliefs, religiosity and the role of religion in the private and public sphere. The survey sample closely mirrored the general profile of the Singapore population. In the midst of contradicting trends of both religious resurgence and a decline in religiosity in various parts of the globe, analysing the trends of religiosity in Singapore and its impact on perceptions, attitudes and beliefs is critical. Religion is an influential and powerful force that seeps into multiple domains of public and private life. Tracking the expansive reach and influence of religion is thus crucial in maintaining interreligious harmony and surveying public sentiment in public policy.	IPS
	MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, March 2019. The Singapore economy expanded by 1.9% in Q4 2018 compared with the same period the year before, lower than the 2.4% forecast in the December 2018 survey. In the current survey, year-on-year growth in Q1 2019 is expected to be 1.9%...	MAS
	Latest APEC publications: Handbook for APEC Independent Inventors, March 2019 Policy Recommendations Report for APEC Economies: Towards Increasing Independent Inventors’ Success Route to Commercialization, March 2019 Promising Practices and Design Principles in Career and Technical Education Delivered via Distance Learning Technology, February 2019 Traffic Light Score Methodology: A Tool for Ex Post Regulatory Impact Assessment, November 2018 Empowering Women as Managers of the Renewable Energy Sector, March 2019 APEC Multi-Stakeholder Dialogue on Structural Reform in Logistic Services, April 2019 APEC Workshop / Seminar on Capacity Building for Preventing Accidents in Maritime Dangerous Goods and Containers Transportation, March 2019	APEC
	Asian Development Outlook 2019: Strengthening Disaster Resilience. (Full Report and Highlights). Growth in developing Asia is projected to soften to 5.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020. Excluding Asia’s high-income newly industrialized economies, growth is expected to slip from 6.4% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020. As oil prices rose and Asian currencies depreciated, inflation edged up last year but remained low by historical standards. In light of stable commodity prices, inflation is anticipated to remain subdued at 2.5% in both 2019 and 2020...	ADB
	ADB Annual Report 2018 (Main Report, Financial Report). The report focusses on the adoption of ADB’s new long-term corporate strategy, Strategy 2030, approved in July 2018, and highlights the strategic transition in progress across all aspects of ADB’s operations and organization.	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Macroprudential Policy in Asian Economies, April 2019 New Technology and Emerging Occupations: Evidence from Asia, April 2019 Targeted Cash Transfers, Credit Constraints, and Ethnic Migration in the People’s Republic of China, April 2019	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Big Data-Based Peer-to-Peer Lending Fintech: Surveillance System through the Utilization of a Google Play Review, April 2019 Adverse Selection and Credit Certificates: Evidence from a P2P Platform, April 2019 Challenges in Implementing the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: The Case of Viet Nam, April 2019 Prospects for Decent Work in Services, April 2019	ADB
	Other ADB Publications: Use of Remote Sensing to Estimate Paddy Area and Production: A Handbook, April 2019 Exploring Strategies for Planned Urban Cluster Development in South Asia, April 2019 Macroeconomic Update: Nepal, April 2019	ADB


April, 2019 Current Topics		Source

	Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2019Q2, April 2019. According to its High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecast, real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.0% in 19Q1, when compared with the same period in 2018, a further slowdown from the 1.3% in 18Q4. The global economic slowdown brought by the US-China trade tension severely dampened Hong Kong economic growth in the first half of 2019 but it is expected to improve in the second half. In 19Q2, real GDP growth is expected to revert to grow at 2.1% when compared with the same period last year. We forecast Hong Kong GDP to grow by 2.3% in 2019 as a whole, slower than the 3.0% growth in 2018 and a downward revision of our previous forecast by 0.5 percentage points.	HKU
	18 Years and Counting: Australian Counterterrorism, Threats and Responses, April 2019. This report provides a general overview of what successive Australian governments have done since 9/11 to counter the threat posed by Salafi-jihadi to the maintenance of international peace and security, to regional security and to domestic security. Since 2014, the threat level in Australia has been assessed as ‘Probable’, which means that credible intelligence exists to indicate that individuals or groups continue to possess the intent and capability to conduct a terrorist attack in Australia. Both Melbourne and Sydney have featured in jihadist videos and publications...	ASPI
	Jemaah Islamiyah: An Uncertain Future, March 2019. The reappearance of JI has major relevance for Australia given that Indonesia is a large and important strategic partner; any threats to Jakarta’s internal stability must therefore occupy a central place in Canberra’s foreign, defence and security calculations. This is especially true at a time when Australia is seeking to court a closer relationship with Indonesia in response to Beijing’s increased assertiveness in the region and its uncompromising stance on territorial disputes in the South China Sea. At the same time, Australia has been directly caught in the cross-hairs of JI’s past violent activities, with the 2002 bombings in Bali remaining the largest loss of life to a terrorist attack in the nation’s history...	ASPI
	Australia’s Second Sea: Facing Our Multipolar Future in the Indian Ocean, March 2019. This report argues that Australia needs a comprehensive strategy for the Indian Ocean that articulates our regional objectives and outlines a whole-of-government approach to the challenges and opportunities presented by the region. Australia is a major Indian Ocean state. We have by far the longest coastline and by far the largest area of maritime jurisdiction of any country in the region. In one way or another, Australia relies on the Indian Ocean for much of its wealth. But despite the magnitude of its interests, Australia tends to see itself as an Indian Ocean state only in a secondary sense—literally, the Indian Ocean is Australia’s second sea. We’ve long seen ourselves as principally a Pacific Ocean state, reflecting our history and demography. Most Australians have probably only seen the Indian Ocean out of the window of a plane, en route to a holiday in Bali or Europe...	ASPI
	US-Japan Water Diplomacy in Southeast Asia, March 2019. Southeast Asia is often considered "a global hot spot for water crises", where clean water supplies and sanitation in many cities are fragmented and suffering from weak planning, monitoring, and investment. Southeast Asia is going through rapid urbanization today, and its urban population is set to rise from 280 million today to 373 million by 2030. The structure of water governance in Southeast Asia is multi-level, linking local actors to transnational actors in various structures, making regulatory coordination challenging...	EWC
	Japan Holds the Reins of the US-Japan Trade Talks, March 2019. The US-Japan negotiation framework was affirmed in a joint statement issued in New York in September 2018. This simple seven-paragraph document allows for various interpretations. Paragraph three of the statement indicates that the two Parties will first discuss trade in goods, and some early achievable key issues. Paragraph four mentions negotiations on other trade and investment issues “after the completion” of that “discussion”...	EWC
	Israel in the Sino-US Great Power Competition, March 2019. The construction of the “Northern” port in Haifa began in 2015 in cooperation between two Israeli companies, Ashtrom and Shafir. The first one hundred and eighty acres were transferred in July 2018 to Shanghai International Port Group Co. (SIPG), which won the tender to manage the port for 25 years. This sparked a heated discussion in the Israeli press, academia, and even the Israeli cabinet. The debate concerned the implications of the port’s management by a Chinese company for Israel itself and for Israel’s ties with its main strategic ally, the United States...	EWC
	The Thailand-U.S. Defense Alliance in U.S.-Indo-Pacific Strategy, March 2019. After 200 years of diplomatic relations, the time has come for the United States and Thailand to build upon this strong foundation and chart a new course for their alliance in the Indo-Pacific region. This re-examination has hit roadblocks in recent years, as Thailand grapples with the effects of its ongoing coup and the role of the United States in the region is questioned at home and abroad. However, an opportunity has presented itself in the form of the United States’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP). Both the United States and Thailand could capitalize on FOIP’s call for an updated, comprehensive strategy towards the region. Though still in the early stages, Thailand’s central role in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) combined with its long history with the United States position it to have a strong influence on what shape FOIP will take and highlight its importance as an ally to the United States...	EWC
	Central Asia: Japan's New 'Old' Frontier, February 2019. Japanese Silk Road Diplomacy, launched in 1997 by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, was to become one of the first international diplomatic initiatives appealing to the connectivity and revival of the Silk Road within Central Asia (CA). Subsequently, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi dispatched a “Silk Road Energy Mission” in July of 2002, launched the “Central Asia plus Japan” region-building initiative in August 2004, and visited CA in 2006. Most recently, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited all five CA states in 2015. Collectively, these initiatives demonstrate that CA is Japan’s latest “frontier” in Asia, where its presence can be further expanded. For CA states, Japanese involvement in the region represents an attempt to balance Russian and Chinese engagements, while offering access to the technologies and knowledge needed to upgrade their economies’ industrial structures...	EWC
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #7 : Whither Myanmar’s Garment Sector?. The EU has threatened to suspend Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP) status for Myanmar, under which the country’s exports can enter Europe without any tariffs or quotas. The official reason cited by the EU is a growing concern over human rights violations and issues around labour rights in Myanmar. If this threat were to be carried out, the business sector that will be most affected is Myanmar’s burgeoning garment sector, which employs around 700,000 people, most of whom are women. The principal worry in Myanmar is that if EU buyers and brands have to start paying tariffs to import Myanmar-made garments, then they will opt to shift their sourcing to other countries. Without GSP, Myanmar’s garment exports may no longer be price competitive...	ISEAS
	Latest APEC publications: Competition Assessment of Regulations: A Pilot Assessment in Viet Nam Using APEC-OECD Framework on Competition Assessment, January 2019 Off Grid Electrification Option for Remote Regions in APEC Economies, December 2018 11th Conference on Good Regulatory Practices, November 2018 Workshop Summary Report: Integrated Energy System Planning for Equitable Access to Sustainable Energy for Remote Communities in the APEC Region Using North Sulawesi as a Pilot Project/Test Bed, November 2018 Integrated Energy System Planning for Equitable Access to Sustainable Energy for Remote Communities in the APEC Region Using North Sulawesi as a Pilot Project/Test Bed, November 2018 Riding the Wave of the E-Commerce Trend: Emerging and Expanding Business Options for MSMEs, February 2019 APEC Regional Study: Renewable Energy Financing and Investment for Grid-Connected Wind and Solar, February 2019 APEC Capacity Building Workshop on RTAs/FTAs Negotiation Skills and Techniques, February 2019 Trade Policy Dialogue on Trade Facilitation Agreement TFA Category B and C Commitments, September 2018 APEC Business Efficiency and Success Target (BEST) Award: Catalogue of the Best Entrepreneurial Practices 2017 Follow-up Peer Review on Energy Efficiency in Malaysia, November 2018	APEC
	Asia Bond Monitor, March 2019. This publication reviews recent developments in emerging East Asian local currency bond markets, and includes analysis of the fourth quarter of 2018. It notes that the local currency bond market in emerging East Asia reached a size of USD13.1 trillion at the end of December 2018. Investor sentiment has improved but concerns persist about financial stability in the region. Yields have fallen while foreign holdings have increased in most markets. Local currency (LCY) government bond yields declined in most emerging East Asian markets between 28 December 2018 and 15 February 2019. The foreign holdings share in LCY government bonds climbed during the fourth quarter of 2018 in all markets except the PRC and Malaysia...	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: The Rise of the People’s Republic of China and its Competition Effects on Innovation in Japan, March 2019 Exchange Rate Movements and Fundamentals: Impact of Oil Prices and the People’s Republic of China’s Growth, March 2019 Gender and Corporate Success: An Empirical Analysis of Gender-Based Corporate Performance on a Sample of Asian Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, March 2019 Environmental Governance and Environmental Performance, March 2019 An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market, March 2019 Bursting the Bitcoin Bubble: Assessing the Fundamental Value and Social Costs of Bitcoin, March 2019 Fintech and Financial Literacy in the Lao PDR, March 2019 Quality Infrastructure Investment: Ways to Increase the Rate of Return for Infrastructure Investments, March 2019 The Role of Credit Rating Agencies in Addressing Gaps in Micro and Small Enterprise Financing: The Case of India, March 2019 The Role of Credit Guarantee Schemes in the Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises with an Emphasis on Knowledge-Based Enterprises, March 2019 Sectoral and Skill Contributions to Labor Productivity in Asia, March 2019 Determinants and Impacts of Financial Literacy in the Lao PDR, March 2019 Services and Manufacturing in Global Value Chains: Is the Distinction Obsolete? March 2019	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Good Jobs for Inclusive Growth in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, February 2019 Sri Lanka’s Macroeconomic Challenges: A Tale of Two Deficits, March 2019 Accelerating Progress: An Empowered, Inclusive and Equal Asia and the Pacific, Published 2019 Addressing Illegal Wildlife Trade in the Philippines, Published 2019 Rebalancing the Economy and Reforming the Fiscal System of the People’s Republic of China, Published 2019 The Dynamics of Urbanization, Housing, and Land Provision in the Pacific Island Countries, February 2019	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Nonperforming Loans in Asia: Determinants and Macrofinancial Linkages, March 2019 Quarterly Forecasting Model for India's Economic Growth: Bayesian Vector Autoregression Approach, March 2019	ADB
	Asian Development Review, Vol. 36, No. 1, 2019 (Full Report): This edition covers intergenerational mobility of families in slums of Jakarta, exports and imports of Thailand, and the effects of foreign direct investment on the productivity of 15 emerging market economies, among others. It also discusses labor market returns to education and English language skills in the People's Republic of China, agricultural and nonagricultural labor productivities in low- and middle-income economies in Asia, the Kuznets postulate on the association of structural transformation with increasing inequality for 32 developing and recently developed economies, the determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds, and the effect of credit policy in the economy of the Republic of Korea. Intergenerational Mobility in Slums: Evidence from a Field Survey in Jakarta Dissecting Thailand’s International Trade: Evidence from 88 Million Export and Import Entries Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity: A Cross-Country, Multisector Analysis Labor Market Returns to Education and English Language Skills in the People’s Republic of China: An Update The Labor Productivity Gap between the Agricultural and Nonagricultural Sectors, and Poverty and Inequality Reduction in Asia Kuznets Revisited: What Do We Know about the Relationship between Structural Transformation and Inequality? The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields The Effectiveness of Credit Policy: Evidence from the Republic of Korea	ADB


March, 2019

	International Journal of Korean Studies, Volume XXII, Number 1, 2018 The Strategic Case for South Korea to Join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership Tensions in U.S.-Korea Economic Relations The Evolution of Korean Studies in the Philippines International Collaboration Efforts to Denuclearize the Korean Peninsula Sources of Conflict in South Korean Parricides, 1948 to 1963 Whose Coup? The Alliance of Park Chung-hee and Kim Jong-pil	IJKS
	‘New’ Malaysia: Four Key Challenges in the near Term, March 2019. In May 2018 Malaysia underwent its first regime change in its political history. This saw the return of Mahathir Mohamad as prime minster, 15 years after his first tenure as prime minster from 1981 to 2003. As the country heads towards the first anniversary of the Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) government, it is imperative that the momentum for political change is not stalled. This Analysis identifies four key areas that the new administration must deal with in the next 12 months: the Malay Agenda/Bumiputra Policy; the 1963 Malaysia Agreement (MA63); political Islam; and a clear timetable for transition of power. These issues are not only crucial to the stability of the PH administration, but also for long-term institutional reforms...	Lowy
	Counterterrorism Yearbook 2019. The Counterterrorism Yearbook is ASPI’s annual flagship publication curated by the Counter-terrorism Policy Centre, now in its third year of publication. It is a comprehensive resource for academics and policymakers to build on their knowledge of counterterrorism developments in countries and regions around the world. Each chapter in the yearbook is written by an internationally renowned subject-matter and regional expert who provides their insight and commentary on counterterrorism policy, legislation, operations and strategy for a specific country or region, looking at both the year in review and the challenges for the year ahead.	ASPI
	Agenda for Change 2019: Strategic Choices for the Next Government, February 2019. In 2018, many commentators pronounced the rules-based global order to be out for the count. This presents serious challenges for a country such as Australia, which has been an active contributor and clear beneficiary of that order. The government that we elect in 2019’s federal election will be faced with difficult strategic policy choices unlike any we’ve confronted in the past 50 years. This volume contains 30 short essays that cover a vast range of subjects, from the big geostrategic challenges of our times, through to defence strategy; border, cyber and human security; and key emergent technologies. The essays provide busy policymakers with policy recommendations to navigate this new world, including proposals that ‘break the rules’ of traditional policy settings. Each of the essays is easily readable in one sitting—but their insightful and ambitious policy recommendations may take a little longer to digest.	ASPI
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #6 : Military Capitalism in Myanmar: Examining the Origins, Continuities and Evolution of “Khaki Capital”. Military enterprises, ostensibly set up to feed and supply soldiers, were some of the earliest and largest Burmese commercial conglomerates, established in the 1950s. Union Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited (UMEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) are two profit-seeking military enterprises established by the military after the dissolution of the Burma Socialist Programme Party in 1988, which remain central players in Myanmar’s post-2011 economy. Military conglomerates are a major source of off-budget revenue for the military and a main employer of retired soldiers. Yet few veterans receive more than a small piece of the profits from UMEHL. The vast bulk of formal dividends instead disproportionately benefit higher ranking officers and institutions within the Tatmadaw...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #5 : From Declaration to Code: Continuity and Change in China’s Engagement with ASEAN on the South China Sea. China’s engagement with ASEAN over the South China Sea, from the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to the ongoing negotiations on the Code of Conduct (COC), exhibits a dynamic continuum with two constants: 1. Dismissal of any legally binding instrument that would constrain China’s freedom of action; and 2. Persistent territorialization of the SCS despite Beijing’s simultaneous diplomatic engagement with ASEAN. The continuity is juxtaposed with elements of change in China’s engagement with ASEAN, as afforded by the former’s growing power and influence. This metamorphosis is manifested in China’s efforts to undermine ASEAN unity, robustly assert its claims in the SCS, and use economic statecraft towards ASEAN member states in return for their acquiescence...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #4 : The Indo-Pacific and Its Strategic Challenges: An Australian Perspective. The shift in the framework of Australia’s strategic thinking from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific reflects the primary focus on the maritime environment in the coming decades and the expectation that over time India will become more embedded in the strategic dynamics of the Asia-Pacific. India is in the midst of a major geopolitical repositioning, as it pursues a hard-headed national interests-based policy and builds stronger strategic ties with a wide range of countries including the United States and its allies in the region. The region is entering a potentially dangerous phase in U.S.–China relations. China’s rise needs to be managed not frustrated; balanced not contained. Constructing that balance and anchoring China in a new multi-polar strategic equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific is the big challenge of our time...	ISEAS
	North Korea and ASEAN: Friends Again, but It's Complicated, February 2019. When Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un meet in Vietnam later this month, it will mark Kim’s second trip to Southeast Asia in less than a year. That in itself is something of a noteworthy feat, considering it had been over half a century since the last time a North Korean leader traveled to the region. The choice of venue also gives a bit of vindication to “the ASEAN way” – a preference among the countries of the region for neutrality and non-alignment in international affairs, coupled with a willingness to use their good offices to help resolve international disputes. A recent poll of Southeast Asian leaders from the fields of academia, government, business, and civil society revealed a marked preference for engaging, rather than pressuring, North Korea...	EWC
	Vietnam-North Korea: Communism Could not Unite Them, Can Capitalism? February 2019. Vietnam and North Korea were once considered ‘two of a kind’; divided countries, sharing a border with China and determined to unify their countries under the chosen ideology of communism. After the Cold War, the two took very different paths. Today, the relationship may have an opportunity for a new chapter – one that is based not on a common ideology, but by a desire for economic growth and development. North Korea and then-North Vietnam had long-standing relations. In fact, the DPRK was the third country after the People’s Republic of China and the Soviet Union that the Socialist Republic of Vietnam established formal relations with in the same month of January 1950 – the year that the Korean War began...	EWC
	Historically Balanced Thailand-North Korea Relations, February 2019. Thailand-North Korea ties have long escaped international scrutiny since the two countries first established diplomatic relations on 8 May 1975. Thai-North Korea friendship and cooperation have developed with ups and downs reflecting the prevailing regional and global security environment. North Korea was the first communist country to officially recognize Thailand. In the absence of any outstanding bilateral disputes, both countries found it easy to get along despite ideological differences that further diminished when the Cold War ended. Pyongyang was eager to forge ties with Bangkok to end international isolation and counterbalance South Korea’s influence in Southeast Asia...	EWC
	Factors Shaping Philippines-North Korea Relations, February 2019. The Republic of the Philippines’ relations with North Korea are influenced by four critical factors: political alignment with the United States, realpolitik, international norms, and risks to Philippine national security and interests. In other words, historical, functional, normative, and strategic factors have been of greater or lesser significance at different junctures in the nearly twenty-year formal Philippines-North Korea relationship. The initial interaction between the Philippines and North Korea occurred as state-to-state conflict due to the Korean War (1950-1953), which was a byproduct of the Cold War. The Philippines, being a liberal democracy, showed the flag and sent boots on the ground by deploying the “Philippine Expeditionary Force to Korea” (PEFTOK) to join the United Nations (UN) coalition forces under the leadership and operational command of the United States to defend democratic South Korea against an invasion by the Communist North...	EWC
	Myanmar-North Korea Relations are Primarily a Contest between Myanmar’s Civilian Government and Its Military, February 2019. Myanmar and North Korea have had a complex relationship since the 1990s. In the 2000s especially, the two countries’ military ties, including North Korea’s sale of missile technology and assistance in the construction of underground defense facilities in Myanmar, have caused international and regional concerns. While bilateral relations between Myanmar and North Korea have not always been easy, the challenges and struggles the two countries each faced have brought them closer. As pariah states shunned by the international community for their severe human rights violations and facing sanctions and embargoes by the West, the two countries managed pragmatically to meet each others' needs. For example, the Tatmadaw — Myanmar’s military — was intent on bolstering its military strength and defense capabilities and North Korea was receptive to helping to achieving this goal...	EWC
	How North Korea-Mongolia Relations Have Jumpstarted the Korean Peninsula Peace Process, February 2019. Mongolia’s diplomacy with North Korea, based on a long history of close relations between the two countries, has been a significant factor in the new atmosphere on the Korean peninsula. Mongolia believes that it faces common problems with Pyongyang, such as uncomfortable economic dependence on border neighbors — China and Russia — and geographical isolation from greater Asia. Landlocked Mongolia’s diversification of trade partners through its own “Third Neighbor” policy (to cultivate ties with countries beyond its two border neighbors to counterbalance their economic and political influence) is connected to its self-interest, but also could serve as a diplomatic bridge by unlocking North Korea as a rail transit route and port to the Pacific for Mongolia’s rich mineral resources...	EWC
	From Neutrality to Pragmatism in Malaysia-North Korea Relations, February 2019. In the late 1960s, North Korea began to reach out to Malaysia to establish diplomatic ties amidst its Cold War-era charm-offensive toward the developing world. The first official visit by representatives of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to Malaysia was a trade delegation led by then External Trade Minister Bak Su Kwon in 1971 to Perbadanan Nasional Berhad (then PERNAS, now PNS) Malaysia’s largest state-owned enterprise (SOE). Subsequently, DPRK’s overseas diplomatic representatives actively sought out Malaysian counterparts (in Cairo, Paris, Belgrade, Jakarta, and Singapore) to convey North Korean government’s wish to establish official ties in early 1973...	EWC
	Pyongyang and India: Strategic Choices on the Korean Peninsula, February 2019. The first visit by the Minister of State for External Affairs of India V.K. Singh to Pyongyang in May 2018 after a gap of 20 years demonstrated New Delhi’s aim to nurture its relationship with North Korea and keep options open to advance its strategic presence in the rapidly evolving environment on the Korean Peninsula. Noting how both India and North Korea could possibly explore cooperation in areas of “mutual interests”, the official statement released after the visit of V.K. Singh iterated India’s support towards the evolving joint peace initiative between the DPRK and the ROK on the Korean Peninsula...	EWC
	Cambodia-North Korea Relations, February 2019. Cambodia is among the five Southeast Asian countries that have an embassy in Pyongyang. The bilateral relationship has fluctuated over time, due to three factors: leadership, economics, and geopolitics. The late King Norodom Sihanouk and Kim Il-sung were the architects of the bilateral relationship after their first encounter at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) meeting in Belgrade in 1961. The relationship flourished from 1965 to early 1990s, as both countries stood on the same side during the Cold War. The new coalition government in Cambodia, established after the UNsupervised general election in 1993, continued to maintain good relations with North Korea, with both sides signing an agreement to create the Cambodia-DPRK Joint Committee to strengthen bilateral ties...	EWC
	The Philippine-US Alliance in 2019, February 2019. At the end of 2018, two developments rocked the alliance between the Philippines and the United States. Delfin Lorenzana, the Philippine secretary of national defense, called for the review of the Mutual Defense Treaty. In the United States, Secretary James Mattis resigned out of principle, to be temporarily replaced by his relatively inexperienced deputy. With US-China competition moving into high gear, coupled with the unstable domestic politics of the two allied countries, a review of the mutual defense treaty will pose a great challenge to alliance management...	EWC
	Latest APEC publications: Recognising Sustainability in Tourism, February 2019 Outcomes and Outlook 2018/2019 APEC at a Glance 2019	APEC
	Demystifying Rising Inequality in Asia, Published 2019. Rising income inequality is a key challenge for policy makers in developing Asia. Income inequality is one of the most profound social, economic, and political challenges of our time. The gap between the rich and the poor has been regarded as a major concern for policy makers. This gap is at its highest level in decades for developed economies, while the inequality trend has been rising in many developing countries. In Asia, despite recent economic growth, income distribution has been worsening as well. This book contributes to the existing literature on inequality in Asia by overviewing the new trend of inequality in Asia and investigating the drivers of rising inequality in various Asian countries.	ADB
	The Future of Work: Regional Perspectives, Published 2018. This study considers how technology is likely to change labor markets in Africa; Developing Asia; Emerging Europe, Central Asia, and the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean; and Latin American and the Caribbean in the coming years. Recent technological innovation in fields such as robotics, automation, and artificial intelligence have reduced the number of workers required in a range of sectors, while lowering costs and increasing reliability. This trend has led policy makers, academics, chief executive officers, and entrepreneurs to ask what types of jobs will be most affected, what new skillsets will be needed for the jobs of tomorrow, and how governments can ease the transition. This study identifies concrete policy actions countries in these regions could take to face up to the challenges and seize the opportunities presented by emergent technology. It is a copublication between African Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Inter-American Development Bank.	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: The Employment Effects of Technological Innovation, Consumption, and Participation in Global Value Chains: Evidence from Developing Asia, February 2019 Women’s Asset Ownership: Evidence from Georgia; Mongolia; and Cavite, Philippines, February 2019	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Trade, Labor Share, and Productivity in India's Industries, February 2019 A Microeconomic Analysis of the Declining Labor Share in Japan, February 2019 Establishment of the Credit Risk Database: Concrete Use to Evaluate the Creditworthiness of SMEs, February 2019 Impacts of Financial Literacy on the Loan Decisions of Financially Excluded Households in the People's Republic of China, February 2019 Money and Central Bank Digital Currency, February 2019 Improving Subnational Government Development Finance in Emerging and Developing Economies: Toward a Strategic Approach, February 2019 The Labor Share of Income around the World: Evidence from a Panel Dataset, February 2019 Democracy and the Labor Share of Income: A Cross-Country Analysis, January 2019	ADB

February, 2019

	Quad 2.0: New Perspectives for the Revived Concept, February 2019. In late 2017, the revival of an idea over a decade old—the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—created a wave of debate, concern and anticipation across the world. The Quad, as it is commonly referred to—or, more precisely, Quad 2.0, as this is its second life—is an informal dialogue between four of the world’s major democracies: the US, Japan, Australia and India. Quad 2.0, like Quad 1.0, is a controversial yet important idea that has survived the test of time. The four members’ first major get-together was in December 2004, when they responded to the massive Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami in a coordinated multilateral humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operation. Following that, in 2007, the first informal meeting between the four happened on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Manila. Soon afterwards, the first naval exercise involving all the Quad members drew Chinese diplomatic protests, after which Prime Minister Kevin Rudd pulled Australia out of the exercise. Quad 1.0 fell into lethargy...	ASPI
	Fiscal Management of Reserves in Singapore: An Intergenerational Equity Perspective, September 2018. The pre-dominant discourse around the fiscal management of Singapore’s national reserves is often framed around sustainability. The concept of sustainability is however shaped by how we understand intergenerational equity; what we mean by “fairness” between generations; and what standards we apply to determine if there is indeed “fairness” between generations. This paper reviews current theories on intergenerational equity, and locates the prevailing discourse on fiscal management of the reserves and intergenerational equity in Singapore with these theories...	IPS
	Fake News, False Information and More: Countering Human Biases, September 2018. Despite the various measures adopted by the public, private and people sectors in the past 18 months to counter fake news and various types of disinformation, concerns among the public remain high. According to the 2018 Reuters Institute Digital News Report, over half (54%) agree or strongly agree that they were concerned about what is real and fake on the Internet. This was highest in countries like Brazil (85%), Spain (69%), and the US (64%) where politics are polarised and social media use is high...	IPS
	Community Relations Amidst the Threat of Terror, September 2018. This paper analyses data from a survey funded by Channel NewsAsia (CNA) at MediaCorp in 2017, which examined the views of 2,031 respondents on issues relating to race and religious relations in the context of terrorism. The survey aimed to study how Singaporeans would react following a terror attack in the nation state, perpetrated by groups that used religious labels (either a Christian, Muslim, Buddhist or Hindu group).1 The survey also asked respondents how long they thought it would take for fellow citizens to remain angry or suspicious of those from the same religion involved in the attack, and the length of time it would take for Singaporeans to feel united as one people...	IPS
	Makan Index 2017: An Indicator for Cost of Eating Out in Singapore, May 2018. In this paper, we introduce the Makan Index as a measure of the cost of eating out. This measure was built on survey data (n = 2,389) collected using a standard set of food items across 26 (URA) planning areas in Singapore, focusing on only three types of eating places: coffee shops, hawker centres and food courts. The Index was then compared across different planning areas and its correlation with socioeconomic characteristics of the planning areas was analysed. The results of this study show that the cost of eating out differs across planning areas...	IPS
	Workfare and Vulnerability in Rural India, Published 2019. Using a unique panel data for rural India for the periods 1999 and 2006 this paper models vulnerability to poverty in the context of local governance and the introduction of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). We quantify household vulnerability in rural India in 1999 and 2006, investigate the determinants of ex post poverty as well as ex ante vulnerability, assess the role of ex ante vulnerability on poverty shift during the sample periods (i.e. movement into/out of poverty) and finally, examine how the effects of the determinants of vulnerability vary at different points across the vulnerability distribution...	ASARC
	Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Research Paper Series: Implementing Sugarcane Block Farming for Increased Farm Income and Productivity, Published 2019 Sustainable Development Goal 5: How Does the Philippines Fare on Gender Equality? Published 2018 The Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program After 30 Years: Accomplishments and Forward Options, Published 2018 Measuring and Examining Innovation in Philippine Business and Industry, Published 2018 Results of the Assessment of the Motor Vehicle User's Charge Utilization in the Philippines, Published 2018	PIDS
	Philippine Institute for Development Studies - Development Research News: Higher Educ, Research Orgs Must Embrace Open Access, October-December 2018 Ph Urged to Be Optimistic Toward FIRE, July-September 2018 Farmers Still Struggle to Afford Agri Insurance, April-June 2018 Ph Laws on Women Lack Teeth, January-March 2018	PIDS
	Global Britain and Global Japan: A New Alliance in the Indo-Pacific? January 2019. In January 2019, amidst all the Brexit-related commotion and confusion, British Prime Minister Theresa May took time out to welcome Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to London. Although the media focused on the timing of the visit – not least because of his warning over the consequences of a “no-deal” Brexit and follow-on visit to the Netherlands, where a handful of Japanese companies may relocate or establish satellite offices – this was much more than just a shoring up of one political leader by another. The fact is that Japan and the UK have been moving closer together for over a decade, and not only in the diplomatic-economic sphere. For some time, the two have been deepening their strategic and military cooperation...	EWC
	The Limitations of Summits around the Korean Peninsula, January 2019. After the 2018 Winter Olympics held in South Korea, diplomatic summitry succeeded in pausing North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests, alleviating US “maximum pressure,” and reducing regional concerns about military conflict. Yet despite a historic meeting between Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June, and three reconciliatory meetings between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, North Korea has made scant progress on denuclearization. In 2019, three different summits are demonstrating the limits of high-level diplomacy around the Korean Peninsula. A North Korea-China summit in January was less about solutions than maintaining influence in a fluid strategic environment...	EWC
	Recognizing Israel Aligns with Indonesia’s Interests, Ambitions, & Constitution, January 2019. In Indonesia’s successful campaign for a UN Security Council nonpermanent membership, it expressed its desire to be a global “bridge-builder” and partner for peace in world affairs. 2019 brings Indonesia, as the world’s largest Muslim-majority state and third-largest democracy heading to national elections in the Spring, an opportunity to expand its Mideast non-aligned foreign policy. Mideast scholar and practitioner, Richard Haass suggests “In the case of Israel and the Palestinians, there is an argument for diplomatic efforts that would aim to keep the situation from deteriorating and to keep alive diplomatic prospects for a more propitious moment or, better yet, to bring such a moment closer” (2017)...	EWC
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #3: Exploring the Trade Potential of the DFTZ for Malaysian SMEs. Malaysia established the Digital Free Trade Zone (DFTZ) to facilitate the development of e-commerce and the country’s small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs’) exports. The data revealed thus far indicates an increasing number of SMEs coming on board the DFTZ e-commerce platforms. The publicly disclosed data focus on the value of exports achieved but do not show whether these are from new or existing exporters or whether they are re-exports. They also do not highlight Malaysia’s imports through the zone. The overall trend signals that Malaysia is losing its bilateral revealed comparative advantage in exports to China, as well as an increasing use of imports for exporting to China...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #2: Vietnam’s Industrialization Ambitions: The Case of Vingroup and the Automotive Industry. Vietnam has officially admitted its failure to achieve industrialized economy status by 2020. This failure is partly due to its inability to grow a strong local manufacturing base and develop key strategic industries. The participation of Vingroup, the country’s largest private conglomerate, in the automotive industry has sparked new hopes for Vietnam’s industrialization drive. The company, through its subsidiary Vinfast, aims to become a leading automaker in Southeast Asia with an annual capacity of 500,000 units and a localization ratio of 60 per cent by 2025. Challenges that Vinfast faces include its unproven track record in the industry; the limited size of the national car market; the lack of infrastructure to support car usage in Vietnam...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2019 #1: Emerging Political Configurations in the Run-up to the 2020 Myanmar Elections. While facing international pressures relating to Rakhine State, and under tense civil–military relations, political parties are preparing for the 2020 Myanmar general elections. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the ruling party, is taking a more democratic platform focusing on the creation of a democratic federal union, while the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) adopts a more nationalist approach, emphasizing the prevention of foreign interference regarding Rakhine State. Taking lessons from the 2015 Myanmar general elections, and in order to effectively contend with the NLD and the USDP, the ethnic political parties are at the same time merging into single parties and new political are now also being registered at the Union Election Commission...	ISEAS
	Economic Indicators for Eastern Asia: Input–Output Tables, December 2018. This publication presents economic statistics relevant for cross-border production arrangements analysis in Hong Kong, China; Japan; Mongolia; the People’s Republic of China; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei,China. This was computed from ADB’s multi-regional input–output database which serves the increasing demand for structured, relevant, timely, and accurate data, especially with the onset of various economic research projects on global value chains...	ADB
	Economic Indicators for Southeastern Asia and the Pacific: Input–Output Tables, December 2018. his publication presents economic statistics relevant for cross-border production arrangements analysis in Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Fiji, Indonesia, the Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. This was computed from ADB’s multi-regional input–output database which serves the increasing demand for structured, relevant, timely, and accurate data, especially with the onset of various economic research projects on global value chains...	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: The Business of Greening: Policy Measures for Green Business Development in Asia, January 2019 Philippine City Disaster Insurance Pool: Rationale and Design, December 2018 SASEC Vision – Myanmar, Published 2018 Strengthening Functional Urban Regions in Azerbaijan: National Urban Assessment 2017, December 2018 Handbook on Battery Energy Storage System, December 2018 Georgia: Country Gender Assessment, December 2018 Uzbekistan Country Gender Assessment: Update, December 2018	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Expected Work Experience: A New Human Capital Measure, January 2019 Potential Use of the Life Satisfaction Approach to Value Nonmarket Good and Services, January 2019 Asian Development Outlook: Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016, January 2019	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Multi-product Firms, Tariff Liberalization, and Product Churning in Vietnamese Manufacturing, January 2019 Why Is Green Finance Important? January 2019 The Basel Capital Requirement, Lending Interest Rate, and Aggregate Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Viet Nam, January 2019 Green Finance in Singapore: Barriers and Solutions, January 2019 Productivity and Trade Growth in Services: How Services Helped Power Factory Asia, January 2019 Responses to Trade Opening: Evidence and Lessons from Asia, January 2019 Optimal Regulation of P2P Lending for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, January 2019	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: Trade Facilitation in APEC: Progress and Impact, January 2019 Best Practices of Youth Employment Policies in Selected APEC Economies, October 2018 Fifteen Role Models for Women and Girls in STEM, March 2018	APEC


January, 2019

	Managing Connectivity Conflict: EU-India Cooperation and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, December 2018. Connectivity initiatives are the latest geopolitical tool for advancing influence in international relations and diplomacy. Against the backdrop of an emerging connectivity conflict, the responsibility is on likeminded countries and organizations to promote initiatives that embody transparency and universalism in connectivity projects and that benefit citizens in the long term. The EU and India are two important actors in this regard. This paper analyzes the scope of cooperation in the field of connectivity between the EU and India, arguing that they are two important strategic poles of the current world order with shared interests. Europe and India are key actors of the western and non-western democratic liberal, both aiming to strengthen an “open, transparent and rules-based system of international politics and economics.” Realizing this potential requires candid and engaged strategic and economic exchange between the two sides...	ISDP
	Change and Continuity in Uzbekistan 1991-2016, October 2018. Uzbekistan has entered a dynamic new phase of development. The obvious motivating factor is the transition in presidential leadership, following the death of Founding President Islam Karimov on September 2, 2016, and the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev on December 4, 2016. It is easy, perhaps all too easy, to attribute the change simply to the differences between these two leaders. Some international observers who were critical of what preceded the present changes see today's developments as a sharp break with the past, a radical transformation along fundamentally different lines than what preceded them, a welcome opening to a more market-based and participatory system. Others, who also have little good to say about what came earlier, are quick to conclude that less has changed than meets the eye, and that the many recent reforms are mainly for show...	ISDP
	Hong Kong: High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2019Q1, January 2019. According to its High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecast, real GDP is estimated to grow by 2.7% in 18Q4, when compared with the same period in 2017, slightly slower than the 2.9% growth in 18Q3. In 19Q1, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.3% when compared with the same period last year. We forecast that Hong Kong GDP will grow by 3.4% in 2018 as a whole, same as our previous forecast. Clouded by the expected economic slowdown in China and US in 2019 brought by the unfolding impact of the US-China trade tension and interest rate hikes, Hong Kong’s GDP growth is expected to show further slowdown to 2.8% in 2019 as a whole...	HKU
	MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2018. The December 2018 Survey was sent out on 22 November 2018 to a total of 28 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. This report reflects the views received from 23 respondents (a response rate of 82.1%) and does not represent MAS’ views or forecasts. GDP growth in Q3 2018 was in line with expectations. The Singapore economy expanded by 2.2% in Q3 2018 compared with the same period last year, marginally higher than the median forecast of 2.1% reported in the September survey. In the current survey, year-on-year growth in Q4 2018 is expected to come in at 2.4%...	MAS
	MAS Financial Stability Review, November 2018. Tightening global financial conditions have caused capital outflows from the region, and could create further pressures on regional currencies and the debt servicing abilities of sovereigns, corporates and households. Vulnerabilities in emerging market (EM) economies have been exacerbated by global trade tensions. A protracted trade conflict could have wider ramifications on global economic growth through dampened business confidence, investment and productivity. Singapore’s banking system remains resilient despite increased uncertainty. Loan growth was healthy over the past year, while overall asset quality has improved. MAS assesses that domestic credit growth remains in line with economic conditions and does not observe any broad-based domestic credit overheating at this juncture. Hence, MAS will maintain the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) at 0%...	MAS
	A Guide to Digital Token Offerings, November 2018. On 1 August 2017, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) clarified that if a digital token constitutes a product regulated under the securities laws administered by MAS, the offer or issue of digital tokens must comply with the applicable securities laws. This paper provides general guidance on the application of the securities laws administered by MAS in relation to offers or issues of digital tokens in Singapore. For purposes of this guide, the securities laws refer to the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) (“SFA”) and the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) (“FAA”)...	MAS
	Principles to Promote Fairness, Ethics, Accountability and Transparency (FEAT) in the Use of Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics in Singapore’s Financial Sector, November 2018. This document contains a set of generally accepted Principles for the use of artificial intelligence and data analytics (“AIDA”) in decision-making in the provision of financial products and services. Compared to human decision-making, the nature and the increasing use of AIDA may heighten the risks of systematic misuse. This may result in impacts which are more widespread, perpetuated at greater speed. When used responsibly and effectively, AIDA has significant potential to improve business processes, mitigate risks and facilitate stronger decision-making...	MAS
	Economic Conflict Between America and China: A Truce Declared, the Talks Begin, December 2018. China and the United States are in talks over their so-called trade war, the biggest threat to economic globalisation in decades. While the focus of the dispute has centred on tariffs, the underlying economic issues involved in the talks are both simpler and more complex, less dangerous and more dangerous to the rest of the world, than widely thought. The Trump administration portrays the trade deficit between China and the US as unfair, yet US exports to China since it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 have grown very much faster than China’s exports to the United States. US manufacturing output, said to be devasted by imports from China, has increased strongly over the past decade...	Lowy
	Implications of the Assistance and Access Bill 2018, Decmeber 2018. The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Bill 2018 and the resulting legislation have been of significant interest to a range of Australian and international stakeholders. In public submissions through the consultation phase, various industry stakeholders and voices raised several concerns about the potential economic implications of the Bill. To better understand the nature of those concerns and how they might be addressed, AustCyber (the Australian Cyber Security Growth Network) asked ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre to develop and conduct an online survey of Australian industry using AustCyber’s database of contacts.	ASPI
	Remaining Plugged into European Defence and Security After Brexit: Australia and Germany, Decmeber 2018. The UK will leave the EU in March 2019. This will have long-lasting implications not only for both the UK and the EU’s remaining member states but also for third countries that have close ties to the continent, such as Australia. To remain plugged into European security and defence after Brexit, Canberra will need to develop stronger ties with other European partners to replicate the strong bonds it has with London. Particularly as a proponent of the international rules-based order, Australia should engage more with like-minded European partners such as Germany to address challenges to that order...	ASPI
	Two Kinds of Conservatives in Japanese Politics and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Tactics to Cope with Them, December 2018. Shinzo Abe won the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election in September 2018, securing his third term both as leader of the party and as prime minister. How has Abe — an avowedly nationalistic and right-wing politician in terms of his political ideology — been able to maintain his grip on power for 6 years? To understand his exceptionally long administration (only three other Japanese prime ministers have reached the five-year mark), we must distinguish between two contrasting types of conservatives in the LDP and examine how Abe has maneuvered to integrate those two conservative trends...	EWC
	The United States Reasserts Trade Rule-Making through USMCA and Challenges CPTPP, December 2018. The announcement on October 1, 2018, that an agreement had been reached on a new United States–Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) came as a shock to all members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) except Mexico and Canada. It was particularly shocking for Japan which had led efforts to bring the CPTPP to fruition. New provisions included in the USMCA trilateral accord, such as those related to currency manipulation, imply that the USMCA has dethroned the CPTPP as the most modern trade agreement. The conclusion of the USMCA signifies that the United States is reasserting itself as a trade rule-maker, although the process to achieve that agreement has been publically contentious...	EWC
	The United States Military’s Perspective on the Okinawan Gubernatorial Elections, November 2018. On September 30, 2018, Denny Tamaki, the son of an Okinawan woman and estranged US Marine, won the Okinawa gubernatorial race. Tamaki ran on the same anti-base expansion platform as his predecessor, the deceased Governor Takeshi Onaga. This election made global headlines because it was center stage to the tumultuous triad relationship between the United States, the central government of Japan, and the prefectural administration of Okinawa...	EWC
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2018 #22: The Perak Sultanate: Transitioning into the 21st Century. Although Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s earlier government (1981–2003) limited the powers and privileges of Malaysia’s nine hereditary rulers, the political influence that they could exercise was still evident in the “Perak Crisis” of 2009, which also generated public debate about royal rights. In recent years, public wariness in Malaysia about politicians has helped the rulers present themselves as alternative sources of authority. “Monarchical activism” has been especially evident in the state of Perak, dating from 1984 when Sultan Azlan Muhibbuddin Shah, who was until then Malaysia’s Lord President, was installed as the thirty-fourth ruler. In 2014, he was succeeded by his eldest son, Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah...	ISEAS
	Hmong Studies Journal, Vol. 19, Issues 1 and 2, 2018	HSJ
	Latest ADB Publications: Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap in Asia: The Role of Trade, Manufacturing, and Finance, Published 2018 Pacific Economic Monitor, December 2018 Managing Water Resources for Sustainable Socioeconomic Development: A Country Water Assessment for the People’s Republic of China, December 2018 Investment in Research and Development for Basmati Rice in Pakistan, December 2018 Asian Development Outlook 2018 Supplement: The Outlook Firms as Trade Conflict Pauses, December 2018 Three Features of Aging in the People’s Republic of China and Implications for Development Agenda, November 2018	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: The Role of SMEs in Asia and Their Difficulties in Accessing Finance, December 2018 Assessing Opportunities for Solar Lanterns to Improve Educational Outcomes in Rural Off-Grid Regions: Challenges and Lessons from a Randomized Controlled Trial, December 2018 Marketing: The Crucial Success Factor for Pakistan’s Credit Guarantee Scheme, December 2018 Services Policies and Manufacturing Exports, December 2018 A Comprehensive Method for the Credit Risk Assessment of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Based on Asian Data, December 2018 Local Financial Development, Access to Credit and SMEs’ Performance: Evidence From Bangladesh, December 2018 Credit Risk Analysis of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Based on Thai Data, December 2018 Oil Price Fluctuations, Creditworthiness of the Financial System, and SME Financing in Kazakhstans, December 2018 Restrictiveness of Services Trade Policy and the Sustainable Development Goals, December 2018 The Servicification of Manufacturing in Asia: Redefining the Sources of Labor Productivity, December 2018 Does the Exposure to Routinization Explain the Evolution of the Labor Share of Income? Evidence from Asia, December 2018 Technology, Market Regulations, and Labor Share Dynamics, December 2018 A Model for Utilizing Spillover Taxes and Community-Based Funds to Fill the Green Energy Financing Gap in Asia, December 2018 Impacts of Fiscal Policy on Green Technologies Transfer, November 2018 Green Finance in the Republic of Korea: Barriers and Solutions, November 2018 The Bank of Japan's Super-Easy Monetary Policy From 2013–2018, November 2018 Institutions, Deindustrialization, and Functional Income Distribution in Japan, November 2018 What Explains the Increase in the Labor Income Share in Malaysia? November 2018	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Household Debt, Corporate Debt, and the Real Economy: Some Empirical Evidence, December 2018 The Impact of Trade Conflict on Developing Asia, December 2018 Improving Paddy Rice Statistics Using Area Sampling Frame Technique, November 2018	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: Refrigerator/Freezer Energy Efficiency Improvement in the APEC Region: Review of Experience and Best Practices, November 2018 Trainings in Renewable Energy Best-Practices: Procurement, Contracts, Lifecycle Cost Analyses, and Risk Mitigation to Mobilize Private Investment, December 2018 APEC Nearly (Net) Zero Energy Building Roadmap, November 2018 Developing a Best Practice Global Value Chain (GVC) Framework for Fisheries Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), December 2018 Case Studies of Successful Women Entrepreneurs in the ICT Industry in 21 APEC Economies, November 2018 Women’s Economic Empowerment and ICT: Capacity Building for APEC Women’s Entrepreneurs in the Age of the 4th Industrial Revolution – Seminar Highlights and Policy Recommendations, November 2018 Trends and Developments in Provisions and Outcomes of RTA/FTAs Implemented in 2017 by APEC Economies, December 2018 Profiles of ICT Business and Women Entrepreneurs in APEC Economies, November 2018 Promoting Cross-border E-Trade Under the Framework of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) / Free Trade Agreements (FTAs): Best Practices in the APEC Region, December 2017 2018 Key APEC Documents	APEC


December, 2018

	Trends in Southeast Asia 2018 #21: Islam Nusantara as a Promising Response to Religious Intolerance and Radicalism. The Indonesian government has tried to defeat terrorist groups and uproot radicalism, both through military and cultural-ideological approaches. The recent attack at Mako Brimob Depok, West Java, and the bombing in Surabaya, East Java, however, have shown that radical Islam and terrorist groups are not defeated yet. Killing terrorist does not always mean killing terrorism. It could even have the opposite impact, i.e., strengthening and fertilizing the radical ideology. The government, being aware of this, has been supporting Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) in promoting Islam Nusantara, widely believed to be the ideological antidote for radicalism and terrorism...	ISEAS
	Trends in Southeast Asia 2018 #20: Electoral Politics and the Malaysian Chinese Association in Johor. Like the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) was known for having its bastion in Johor, with the state containing the highest number of parliamentary seats contested and won by the party. Two features of the MCA stand out: (1) its relative resilience in that its near elimination in other states since 2008 did not occur in Johor until the recent 14th General Elections, and (2) that most MCA presidents had some connections to Johor, either as having been born in Johor, contested in a Johor constituency, been chairman of the Johor state liaison committee, or a combination of three. Although historical institutional linkages such as the New Villages and the Chinese guilds and associations (CGAs) gave the MCA a strong footing in Johor initially, changing political and socioeconomic circumstances gradually eroded the party’s support among the Johorean Chinese...	ISEAS
	Partners: Australian Private Sector Engagement in the Pacific, November 2018. The South Pacific is becoming a more strategically crowded and contested space. But, despite the strong aid and defence relations Australia maintains with the island states, there’s been little attention given to date to the role of Australia’s private sector in the Pacific islands region. That’s in many ways surprising. Elements of Australian business have had longstanding connections in the Pacific, and the spread of business across borders is now a powerful international and regional political and economic force. Such business networks knit communities together. Given the crowded and complex South Pacific, there’s now a critical need for the Australian Government and business to get their collective act together in stepping up engagement in the region.	ASPI
	New Caledonia Votes to Retain French Links & France Retains its Indo-Pacific Geo-Strategic Position, November 2018. In the south-west Pacific the French territory of New Caledonia, with a population of about 263,000, held an independence referendum on November 4, 2018. With a high turnout of 80% of eligible voters, 43.6% voted in favor of independence and 56.4% voted in favor of keeping the French link. The 2014 population census breakdown recorded 40.3% Kanaks, 29.2% Europeans, 18.7% other Pacific islanders, 8.6% mixed race and 2.3% other Asians. The challenge for the indigenous largely pro-independence Kanak community had been to push its own 40% block up with pro-independence votes from other non-European communities. Disappointingly for them, they were unable to do this to the extent needed. This result leaves the independence cause in New Caledonia weakened...	EWC
	The United States and Pakistan Need Each Other for Stability and Peace in Afghanistan, October 2018. A fundamental point underlies the US-Pakistan relationship: Washington seeks Islamabad’s support in the honorable exit from Afghanistan. After 17-years of war, the interests of the United States and Pakistan seem to have aligned in pursuing a negotiated settlement of the Afghan conundrum. This reality presents to the new government in Islamabad with what Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center characterized as a golden opportunity to convince the Taliban to commit to the peace talks and become part of the political process in Afghanistan. Toward that end, the Pakistani government believes it will play a constructive role, including using its influence over the Taliban. Indeed, Islamabad considers peace and stability in Afghanistan as “vital for its own long-term stability and progress,” as emphasized by Pakistan Foreign Minister Qureshi...	EWC
	Asia Bond Monitor, November 2018. This publication reviews developments in East Asian local currency bond markets during the third quarter of 2018 and provides outlook, risks, and policy options. Data suggest that local currency bond yields rose in most economies in emerging East Asia between 31 August and 15 October on the back of continued interest rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve. Highlights of this publication include a special focus on the impact of the Asian Bond Markets Initiative on the region’s bond market development and a detailed presentation of results from the AsianBondsOnline annual bond market liquidity survey.	ADB
	Risk Mitigation and Sovereign Guarantees for Public–Private Partnerships in Developing Economies, November 2018. Private investors are concerned about the creditworthiness of public–private partnership (PPP) projects in Asia because a large percentage of developing countries are considered risky counter parties. This paper examines the application of credit enhancement, such as letters of credit and partial risk guarantees, and attempts to quantify the benefits of these instruments. It presents the main risks of infrastructure investors in Asia, the severity of which vary by specific project conditions, and the complementary roles of governments and multilateral development banks in mitigating these risks.	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Globalization, Structural Transformation, and the Labor Income Share, November 2018 Green Finance in Bangladesh: Policies, Institutions, and Challenges, November 2018 Impact of Quantitative Easing and Tax Policy on Income Inequality: Evidence from Japan, November 2018 Government Electronic Services Delivery and the Digital Divide: The Case of Andhra Pradesh, India, November 2018 Social Funding of Green Financing: An Application of Distributed Ledger Technologies, November 2018 A Primer on the Drivers of Labor Income Share, November 2018 Trade Liberalization and the Hukou System of the People’s Republic of China: How Migration Frictions Can Amplify the Unequal Gains from Trade, November 2018 Green Finance in Viet Nam: Barriers and Solutions, November 2018 Credit Guarantee Scheme and Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Finance: The Case of Turkey, November 2018 Productivity Spillovers from Services Firms in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: What Is the Role of Firm Characteristics and Services Liberalization? November 2018 The Role of Fintech in Unlocking Green Finance: Policy Insights for Developing Countries, November 2018	ADB
	Other ADB Publications: Digital Health Convergence Meeting Tool Kit, November 2018 Developing the Leather Industry in Bangladesh, November 2018 How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change? November 2018 What’s the Evidence? Youth Engagement and the Sustainable Development Goals, Published 2018 Together We Deliver: Results Achieved, Lives Improved, October 2018 Integrating Flood and Environmental Risk Management: Principles and Practices, October 2018 Heath Impact Assessment: A Good Practice Sourcebook, October 2018	ADB
	Latest APEC publications: APEC in Charts 2018 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation 2018, November 2018 Fact sheet: 2018 APEC Senior Officials' Report on Economic and Technical Cooperation Development and Integration of Remote Areas in the APEC Region, November 2018 2018 APEC Economic Policy Report, November 2018 Fact sheet: 2018 APEC Economic Policy Report APEC Regional Trends Analysis: The Digital Productivity Paradox, November 2018 2018 CTI Report to Ministers, November 2018 APEC's Bogor Goals Dashboard, November 2018 APEC's Bogor Goals Progress Report, November 2018 Case Studies on Addressing Connectivity Challenges in APEC Economies, November 2018 Summary Report of the 2017 APEC TiVA Workshop, November 2018 Enhancing Stakeholder Engagement in the Implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement, October 2018 Summary Report of APEC Public-Private Dialogue on Green Investment Policy, October 2018 FTAAP Capacity Building Workshop on Competition Chapter in FTAs/EPAs under the 3rd REI CBNI, October 2018 APEC Capacity Building Workshop on FTA Utilization by Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, October 2018 Promoting Resilience in the Energy Sector, August 2018 Promoting Competitiveness Test of Ex Ante Control of Regulations on Advertising - Sales Promotion, August 2017	APEC


November, 2018

	Why Dowry Deaths Have Risen in India? Published 2018. Dowry deaths rose from about 19 per day in 2001 to 21 per day in 2016. While these statistics are worrying, there is a great deal of variation in the incidence of “dowry deaths” across regions and over time. It is indeed alarming that the rise in dowry deaths is unabated despite greater stringency of anti-dowry laws. In 1961, the Dowry Prohibition Act made giving and taking of dowry, its abetment or the demand for it an offence punishable with imprisonment and fine or without the latter. This was an abysmal failure as dowries became a nationwide phenomenon, replacing bride price. More stringent laws followed but with little effect...	ASARC
	Modinomics: Design, Implementation, Outcomes and Prospects, Published 2018. The present paper presents an analysis of the key elements of Modinomics, defined as “everyone’s participation, everyone’s progress.” It investigates the reasons why Modinomics was necessary, the key elements of Modinomics, and how this policy was implemented, as well as two deep structural reforms under Modi. The paper examines the record of economic growth under Modi as well as new welfare and employment programs to make economic growth more inclusive. Finally, the paper examines medium and long –term growth prospects for India...	ASARC
	Structural Transformation in South Asia, Published 2018. This paper models the evolution and determinants of the shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services to GDP for 4 South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan) for 55 years: 1960-2014. Determinants of these shares were classified into three broad categories “country fundamentals”, “policy” and decadal dummies. We find that with increase in GDP the share of services rises strongly whereas the share of manufacturing has a more tepid rise with GDP whereas the share of agriculture falls in most cases...	ASARC
	Asian Economic Integration Report 2018 (Full Report, Highlights). This publication documents Asia’s progress in regional cooperation and integration. It covers the 48 regional members of the Asian Development Bank and analyzes regional as well as global economic linkages. The 2018 report’s special chapter “Toward Optimal Provision of Regional Public Goods in Asia and the Pacific” examines how collective action among countries can help find solutions to growing transnational development challenges. The special chapter also discusses how to best provide regional public goods that transcend the so-called “collective action problem” which occurs when individual interests are too weak on their own to drive cooperation on common issues.	ADB
	Latest ADBI Working Paper Series: Trade Openness and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from Cities in the People’s Republic of China, November 2018 Role of Bank Lending in Financing Green Projects: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach, October 2018 Green Finance in Pakistan: Barriers and Solutions, October 2018 A Proposal on the “i Bank Index,” A Measure of Banks’ Ability to Nurture Client Businesses, October 2018 Overview of Financial Inclusion, Regulation, Financial Literacy, and Education in Central Asia and South Caucasus, October 2018 Energy Efficiency Finance Programs: Best Practices to Leverage Private Green Finance, October 2018 Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy in Kazakhstan, October 2018	ADB
	Latest ADB Working Paper Series: Do Local Currency Bond Markets Enhance Financial Stability? October 2018 Skewed Credit and Growth Dynamics after the Global Financial Crisis, October 2018 Public–Private Partnership Systems in the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, October 2018 Does Regional Integration Matter for Inclusive Growth? Evidence from the Multidimensional Regional Integration Index, October 2018	ADB
	Latest ADB Publications: Building Complementarity and Resilience in ASEAN amid Global Trade Uncertainty, October 2018 Biodiversity Baseline Assessment: Phipsoo Wildlife Sanctuary in Bhutan, October 2018 Philippines: Energy Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map, October 2018 Energy Technology Innovation in South Asia: Implications for Gender Equality and Social Inclusion, October 2018 Translating Women's Voices into Action in Mongolia: Addressing Gender-Based Violence through Investments in Infrastructure, October 2018 Gender Equality and the Sustainable Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific: Baseline and Pathways for Transformative Change by 2030, Published 2018 Inclusive Green Growth Index: A New Benchmark for Quality of Growth, October 2018 Tariff Appraisal Study: Balancing Sustainability and Efficiency with Inclusive Access, October 2018 Portable Screening Devices for Medicine Quality: Putting Power into the Hands of Regulators in Low-Resource Settings, October 2018 Emerging Lessons on Women’s Entrepreneurship in Asia and the Pacific: Case Studies from the Asian Development Bank and The Asia Foundation, October 2018 A Partnership Transformed: Three Decades of Cooperation between the Asian Development Bank and the People's Republic of China in Support of Reform and Opening Up, Published 2018 Measuring, Monitoring, and Operationalizing Quality of Growth: Implications for the People's Republic of China, October 2018 ASEAN+3 Bond Market Guide: Viet Nam, October 2018 Tax and Development: Challenges in Asia and the Pacific, Published 2018 Harnessing Technology for More Inclusive and Sustainable Finance in Asia and the Pacific, October 2018	ADB
	Philippine Defense Cooperation with Russia: A Wake-up Call for the United States? October 2018. Since the election of President Rodrigo Duterte in 2016, the Philippines has pursued an independent foreign policy aimed at gaining distance from the United States. President Duterte has called upon China and Russia for assistance in the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), much to the dislike of Washington. It must not be forgotten that the Philippines and the United States have a long-standing military alliance, established in various agreements: the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), Military Assistance Agreement, Visiting Forces Agreement, Cooperative Threat Reduction Agreement, and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, to name a few...	EWC
	Promises of the “Book of Hope”: Influences on the New Malaysian Government, October 2018. As Malaysia’s new Pakatan Harapan (translating as “Book of Hope”) Government completes its first five months in office, its challenge has shifted from winning elections to governing the nation. Prior to May 9th, few would have expected that Pakatan Harapan’s manifesto – Buku Harapan or Book of Hope – would guide a new chapter in Malaysian politics. It is likely that its own crafters perceived electoral victory as more a distant hope rather than an assured reality. Yet with the defeat of the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, Buku Harapan has become central to Malaysia’s new direction and priorities, continues to influence Malaysia’s governance, and can possibly alter power sharing arrangements in Malaysian politics...	EWC
	The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy and Uncertainties for India & Japan, October 2018. The Trump administration has signaled its intention to engage closely with the Indo-Pacific by committing to new strategic investment initiatives and economic cooperation with Japan, India, Australia, and Mongolia. The concept of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy (FOIP) is not new and was originally coined and reflected in Japan's forein policy strategy under the Abe administration. However, India and Japan continue to face some uncertainties over the nature of their engagement with the United States' vision of the FOIP. These uncertainties arise from lack of clarity over whether the FOIP would focus more on economic development or aim to develop into a security-oriented strategy for countering China...	EWC
	High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2018Q4, October 2018. Real GDP is estimated to grow by 3.0% in 18Q3, when compared with the same period in 2017, moderate from the 3.5% growth in 18Q2. In 18Q4, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 2.7% when compared with the same period last year. Comparing to the 3.8% growth in 2017, we expect Hong Kong GDP will moderate to 3.4% in 2018 as a whole, downward revised by 0.6 percentage point comparing to our previous forecast reflecting the impact of rising interest rate and the uncertainty of the US-China trade war...	HKU
	Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XVII, Issue 2, October 2018 (Full Report, Presentation Slides for Briefing): Monetary Policy Statement Chapter 1: The International Economy Chapter 2: The Singapore Economy Chapter 3: Labour Market and Inflation Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Policy Box A: Estimating A Monetary Policy Rule For Singapore Box B: Review Of MAS Money Market Operations In FY2017/18 Special Feature A Shifts In Asia's Demand And Production Structure: A Value-Added Approach Special Feature B The Impact Of Technological Progress On Inflation: A Review Special Feature C Understanding Current US Trade Policy Through The Lens Of History Special Feature D Market Versus Government: Welfare-Economic And Mesoeconomic Perspectives	MAS
	Singapore Corporate Debt Market Review 2018. Issuance volumes in Singapore’s corporate bond market increased significantly in 2017, on the back of the continued expansion in the global economy and the introduction of MAS’ Asian Bond Grant Scheme. Total debt issued rose 39% year-on-year to SGD 259 billion in 2017, from SGD 186 billion in 2016. Growth was driven by increased issuances of both SGD and non-SGD denominated debt securities. SGD debt securities issued reached a 5-year high of SGD 27 billion, catalysed by strong investor sentiment and issuers seeking to secure longer term funding ahead of the expected rate increases...	MAS
	2017 Singapore Asset Management Industry Survey, October 2018. At the end of 2017, total assets managed by Singapore-based asset managers grew strongly by 19% year-on-year to reach S$3.3 trillion, up from S$2.7 trillion in 2016. This has outpaced the past five years’ average growth rate of 15%. Singapore has maintained a high level of discretionary3 AUM at 53% in 2017, in line with the past five years’ average. Asset managers continue to view Singapore as a conducive place to conduct portfolio management activity. In 2017, there was a net increase of 55 registered and licensed fund managers. This brings the total number of registered and licensed fund managers to 715...	MAS
	MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, September 2018. The Singapore economy expanded by 3.9% in Q2 2018 compared with the same period last year, similar to the median forecast reported in the June survey. In the current survey, year-on-year growth in Q3 2018 is expected to come in at 2.1%...	MAS
	Thematic Review of Credit Review Standards and Practices of Corporate Lending Business, October 2018. Banks are expected to actively manage their credit risks to ensure their credit portfolios remain resilient to vulnerabilities in the external environment. This would entail putting in place adequate credit risk management policies, as well as effective credit review and monitoring processes to identify and manage problem loans at an early stage. With this expectation in mind and against a backdrop of continuing uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, MAS conducted a thematic review of selected banks’ credit review standards and processes for their corporate loan portfolios between October 2016 and June 2017. The thematic review focused on assessing the banks’:..	MAS
	Enforcement, September 2018. This Monograph outlines the approach that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) takes towards enforcement, the role that enforcement plays in the wider objective of financial industry oversight and the key areas of MAS’ enforcement practice and powers across the financial industry. As Singapore’s financial industry grows in size and complexity, it is not possible to prevent all regulatory breaches. MAS recognises the need to have the capability to take swift action to investigate and punish serious misconduct, thereby deterring unethical and illegal behaviour. On 1 August 2016, MAS established a dedicated Enforcement Department to centralise MAS’ enforcement functions and capabilities in order to enhance consistency and expertise in the enforcement functions across the banking, insurance, capital markets and other sectors regulated by MAS...	MAS
	Latest APEC publications: APEC: Trekking the Road to Financial Inclusion, October 2018 Enhancing the Competitiveness of Women-led MSMEs in the Garments and Textile Sector through Innovation and Entrepreneurship, September 2018 Policies, Legislation, and Initiatives to Promote Access to ICTs for People with Hearing and/or Speech Impairment, June 2018 APEC FSCF Workshop on Trade Facilitation through the Recognition of Food Safety Systems Equivalence, September 2018 Workshop on Sustainable and Inclusive Investment Policies within the APEC Region, October 2018 Policy Review for APEC Low-Carbon Model Town Phase 7: Krasnoyarsk City, Russia, October 2018 Supporting the Development and Implementation of Low Emission Development Strategies in the Transport Sector, July 2018 GDPR and CBPR: Reconciling Personal Data Protection and Trade, October 2018	APEC

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