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February 2025 Current Topics

  

Source

 

 

  

 

Potential Impact of Higher United States Tariffs on Asian Economies, January 2025. In 2018, the United States (US) government introduced protectionist measures by imposing tariffs under various sections of its Trade Act. Under Section 201, additional tariffs were imposed on solar cells or modules, starting at 30% in the first year (2019) and reduced to 15% by the fourth year (2022). Similarly, large residential washing machines were subject to additional tariffs of 20%–50% based on a tariff-rate quota. Tariffs were also imposed on steel and aluminum imports under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, citing economic security concerns. Initially, some economies, including the Republic of Korea, were temporarily exempt from these tariffs, but steel quotas and aluminum tariffs were eventually applied...

  

ADB

MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, December 2024. The Singapore economy expanded by 5.4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, exceeding the respondents’ median forecast of 2.6% in the previous survey. In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024. The respondents expect GDP to expand by 3.6% this year, up from 2.6% in the previous survey, with higher forecasts for the manufacturing and wholesale & retail trade sectors. As reflected in the mean probability distribution, the most likely outcome is for the Singapore economy to grow by 3.5 to 3.9% this year, with an average probability of 54%. In the previous survey, the respondents assigned the highest probability to growth outturns of between 2.5 to 2.9%...

  

MAS

Balancing Act - Military Diplomacy and Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula, January 2025. The Korean Peninsula, shaped by historical grievances, ideological divides, and contemporary geopolitical tensions—including North Korea’s alleged military support for Russia’s war with Ukraine and South Korea’s tense political situation—stands out as a heavily militarized and strategically crucial region. Under the scrutiny of the United States and positioned between major powers—China, Japan, and Russia—the peninsula's military dynamics profoundly influence regional and global security. The legacy of the Korean War is omnipresent...

  

EWC

Securing the Future - The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability, January 2025. The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship. Limited interactions marked the initial phase of the US-Maldives defense relationship, primarily focused on diplomatic engagements and occasional military exchanges...

  

EWC

Solar Panels and EV Batteries: US Green Energy Policies Toward China, January 2025. As of mid-2023, China produced 97 percent of the world’s solar panel silicon wafers and was rapidly growing in importance as a provider of batteries for the latest generations of electric vehicles. The Biden Administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had provisions to help US manufacturers of green technologies in the energy and automotive industries compete in key sectors against China. By late 2024, however, American efforts in these two vital green energy areas had seen both false starts at competition and defensive efforts that may be counterproductive to US interests...

  

EWC

Navigating Water Challenges in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: How Can a Shift in Water Management Help? January 2025. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is currently grappling with multiple water challenges. These challenges stem from the alteration of the Mekong River’s natural flows caused by upstream hydropower development, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and local policies that prioritize agricultural production. This article examines how these combined stressors have prompted a shift in water management strategies—from focusing on water expulsion to water retention—to tackle water scarcity and achieve long-term water security in the VMD...

  

EWC

Responsible Cyber Behaviour in the Indo-Pacific, January 2025. In July 2025, the mandate of the United Nations OpenEnded Working Group on the security and use of information and communications technologies (hereafter OEWG) ends. This marks the latest chapter of international discussions on responsible behaviour in cyberspace. Throughout a 20-year period, a corpus of reports has been delivered that outline standards of behaviour. Taken together, this is referred to as the ‘UN framework of responsible state behaviour’ and includes an acceptance that international law applies to state conduct in cyberspace and a commitment to observe a set of norms...

  

ASPI

North of 26 Degrees South and the Security of Australia: Views From the Strategist, Volume 10, January 2025. Australia should establish a separate budget allocation for special defence industry grants to build up companies in the north in support of the armed forces. Northern Australia is strategically crucial, and so, therefore, is developing a defencesupporting industry there. But northern Australia’s limited economic depth presents huge problems for its companies in showing the business capacity needed to secure current Australian Defence Industry Grants. To overcome these obstacles, the budget line for separate Northern Australian Industry Grants need not be large...

  

ASPI

China, Russia and Undersea Cable Vulnerability: Shoring Up Protection, January, 2025. The global undersea cable network, carrying up to 99 percent of international internet traffic, faces increasing vulnerabilities. Recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan highlight the urgent need for enhanced protection measures and international cooperation. The mere possibility of cable interference can create significant anxiety in financial markets and erode public confidence in critical infrastructure, having a huge psychological impact. Russia and China are developing alternative cable routes and systems that could reduce Western control over global communications infrastructure...

  

ISDP

Forecasting European Security in 2025: Will Transatlantic Ties Test Europe’s Indo-Pacific Limits? January, 2025. In late December 2024, Finland—one of the latest entries to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—seized an oil tanker, with alleged links to Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” on grounds of “grave sabotage.” The vessel is suspected of damaging a subsea cable network connecting Estonia and Finland, the two European Union (EU) and NATO members that are staunchly defending Ukraine’s fight against Russia. Moreover, as other such incidents of infrastructure disruptions allegedly by not just Russia but also China have come to light, there is greater concern over escalating hybrid activities, many of which are unprecedented in scale and potential impact...

  

ISDP

Pezeshkian Aims to Strengthen Relations with Japan in All Fields, January, 2025. Iran’s view of Japan correlates to the Masoud Pezeshkian government’s view of the international order and its economic and political needs. The Pezeshkian administration has a post-polar view of the international order and strives for cooperation, collaboration, and networking in various fields. In this regard, East Asia is important for the new government of Iran, wherein Japan has a prominent role. The Pezeshkian administration intends to strengthen relations between Tehran and Tokyo in all fields based on a “comprehensive roadmap” by taking advantage of extensive knowledge from Japan...

  

ISDP

Repurposing the United Nations to Address the Climate Crisis on the Tibetan Plateau, January, 2025. The futures of people along China’s western frontier changed dramatically with the annexation of Xinjiang in 1949 and Tibet in 1950. When Communist China emerged from decades of isolation in the late 1970s and reasserted itself internationally through a strategy of rejuvenation under Xi Jinping, the native cultures that call the Tibetan Plateau home began a long period of subjugation and repression. As wider Central Asia is now threatened by climate change, strategies must be developed to respond to China’s growing influence internationally, regionally, and locally, as regional ecosystems, water storage and reserves, and local livelihoods are increasingly fragile...

  

ISDP

Report of the Webinar: Climate Crisis in Tibet – Part I: CCP’s Tibet Takeover: Wither Global Climate Action? January, 2025. The webinar titled “Climate Crisis in Tibet”, organized by the SCSA-IPA at the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), was held on December 18, 2024. This significant event brought together a distinguished panel of experts to explore the environmental and geopolitical impacts of China’s policies in Tibet. The Tibetan ecosystem has been majorly impacted by the accelerating climate change, as well as China’s rapacious so-called “developmental” aims and repressive political measures, including cultural annihilation and Sinicization...

  

ISDP

Climate Meltdown in Tibet: Global Recognition Still Missing, January, 2025. The Tibetan Plateau covers approximately 2 percent of the planet, the size of Western Europe, with more than half of the area over 4000 m above sea level. It is the highest and most extensive highland in the world, with as many as 46,000 glaciers, making it the third-largest ice mass in the world. This issue brief aims to identify the importance of the Himalayan glaciers and the potential threat to the fragile mountain ecosystem in the Tibetan region. This would include the natural and anthropogenic factors responsible for its degradation in contemporary times...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #2: Retelling the Tale of Two Democracies: How Shifting Urban-Rural Dynamics Shaped Thailand’s 2023 General Election. Thailand’s 2023 general election reveals a political landscape undergoing significant transformation, where the traditional Bangkok-versus-countryside political dichotomy has given way to more nuanced urban-rural electoral dynamics unfolding within individual provinces and constituencies.As urbanization spreads across Thailand, political candidates adapt their campaign strategies to appeal to voters across the urban-rural divide in their constituencies, leveraging the resources and competitive advantages that come with their party affiliation...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2025 #1: Youth and Civic Engagement in Southeast Asia: A Survey of Undergraduates in Six Countries. Youths in Southeast Asia have been active in making their voices heard in politics and in society, both online and offline. However, comparative studies on their civic engagement across the region remain wanting. This pilot study, conducted by the Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme (RSCS) at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, gathers insights from educated youths across selected Southeast Asian countries. Between August and October 2024, the team surveyed undergraduates from six Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam...

  

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADB Publications:  

ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

January 2025

  

 

 

 

  

 

New War in the South China Sea -  Framing China's Unrestricted Warfare and the Role of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, December 2024. China’s gray zone campaigns in the South China Sea (SCS) are characterized by incremental advances that do not directly cause war but aggregate tensions to shift the status quo in favor of Chinese territorial claims. These advances include constructing Chinese facilities in uninhabited or unhabitable areas and using non-militarized coercions to establish control over maritime territories and enhance China’s national interests. China’s gray zone campaign began in 1987 when UNESCO requested China's assistance to build an observation outpost in Fiery Cross Reef...

  

EWC

The Case for US-Japan-ROK Trilateral Extended Deterrence Dialogue, December 2024. For over half a century, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have relied on US extended deterrence, including its “nuclear umbrella,” for their security. However, their confidence in America’s commitment to its bilateral alliances has been shaken in recent years as the two countries face increasing threats from nuclear-armed neighbors, China, Russia, and North Korea, formally the People’s Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK). Despite Washington’s repeated attempts to denuclearize the DPRK through offers of economic assistance and diplomatic rapprochement, the DPRK continues to build up an arsenal of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons..

  

EWC

The United States and Indo-Pacific Must Lead the Way on Creating Indoor Air Quality Regulations, December 2024. Air pollution is the greatest environmental threat to human health today. Recent studies have shown that particulate matter air pollution is the leading contributor to the global disease burden and shortens the average person’s lifespan by 1.8 years. It was also the second leading cause of global mortality. Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been linked to a wide range of adverse health effects, including lung cancer, stroke, low birth weight, and reduced cognitive function...

  

EWC

The Economics of Revoking Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) for China, December 2024. The United States grants nearly every country in the world normal trade relations, née most favored nation, status. However, political pressure has been building to strip China of this treatment. Yet, recent modeling suggests that revoking permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) from China would not deliver economic benefits to the United States. Instead, it would have the opposite effect compared to what its proponents seek. Starting in 1979, the United States moved China from Column 2 of the tariff schedule, the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs, to Column 1, most favored nation. Each year, Congress voted to maintain this status. In 2000, in connection to China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the United States granted China PNTR status, ending the practice of annual Congressional votes..

  

EWC

Whither Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal? December 2024. In less than two months of student protests, Bangladesh, a partly free democracy, has plunged into a phase of serious political uncertainty that has not been seen since 2007 when the then Bangladeshi army chief launched a military coup. The Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, has fled to India, leaving behind a country plagued by violence, lawlessness, and vandalism. A new interim government has taken shape, led by Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Peace Prize winner for revolutionizing Bangladesh’s rural banking system. The 17-member interim government is comprised largely of technocrats, military officials, activists, and leaders of the student movement...

  

EWC

Navigating the Shift -  Is China Losing Its Grip on Africa? December 2024. In the first week of September, as African leaders convened in Beijing for the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), it became increasingly clear that Africa is growing disillusioned with China. On the surface, the summit appeared as significant as ever, with 51 African heads of state in attendance and a $51 billion investment pledge from China for the next three years. While this reflects China’s continued commitment, a closer look reveals troubling issues beneath the surface. For instance, of the $51 billion pledged, only $10 billion constitutes new investment. This amount is relatively modest over three years, especially compared to the $8 billion the US annually allocates in humanitarian aid...

  

EWC

COFA 2023 Emerges as a Vital Lifeline for the Marshall Islands National Climate Adaptation Effort, December 2024. The Compact of Free Association (COFA) between the United States and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) provides economic assistance, access to US social programs, and guaranteed defense provisions in exchange for US military access to the strategic Kwajalein Atoll. While the partnership allows the United States to maintain a significant presence in the Pacific, critical for regional security and broader geopolitical interests, it also traditionally provides the RMI with financial support for infrastructure, education, and healthcare, alongside granting certain rights, such as migration privileges to the United States.
The 2023 Compact renewal marks a significant shift in how the agreement tackles climate change, reflecting both the RMI’s vulnerability to rising sea levels and the US strategic interest in the Pacific...

  

EWC

Pacific Island Nations and Japan's Role, December 2024. Japan hosted the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) from July 16 to July 18, 2024, bringing together leaders and officials from 18 countries and regions in the South Pacific. Established in 1997, the summit has been held every three years. Japan and the Pacific Island nations have had a deep historical relationship. After World War I, Japan administered what are now the Northern Mariana Islands, the Marshall Islands, Palau, and the Federated States of Micronesia as the “South Sea Islands” under a mandate from the League of Nations. Japan established Nan'yo Cho (Territorial Government of the South Seas) in Koror, Palau, in 1922 and engaged in a variety of projects through private companies, including developing the island, encouraging Japanese immigration, building sugar refineries, liquor factories, and constructing railways...

  

EWC

Partnership of Convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China Convergence, December 2024. The development of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base has caused concern in the United States and elsewhere regarding its potential to become a Chinese military outpost. This concern is set to grow as the Chinese-supported upgrade of the base nears completion at the end of 2024. There can be little doubt that China is reinforcing its military presence and influence in Southeast Asia. Yet Western partners have often raised their concerns with Phnom Penh in a counterproductive way, failing to understand the factors motivating Cambodia to seek deeper defence ties with China. By understanding Cambodia’s threat perceptions and the influence of the kingdom’s domestic politics on its defence and foreign policies, Western partners will be better able to balance China’s influence in Cambodia...

  

Lowy

Looking Through a Pacific Islands Lens: Access, Accountability, and Alignment in Global Engagements, December 2024. The most pressing development and security challenges facing the Pacific Islands are rooted in domestic concerns about economic resilience, law and order, corruption, and the escalating impacts of climate change. Viewed from the Pacific, geopolitical rivalries open development opportunities, but they also magnify governance weaknesses. The sharp increase in global aid and interest in the Pacific Islands is straining limited government capacity in the region. The findings of this report are drawn from interviews with more than 150 Pacific Island leaders from government, civil society, and business, canvassing the impacts of geopolitics on governance, development, and security...

  

Lowy

Cyclone Tracy: 50 years on, December 2024. This year marks a powerful milestone in Australia’s history: the 50th anniversary of Cyclone Tracy, a disaster that reshaped the nation’s approach to resilience and recovery. When the cyclone struck Darwin on Christmas Day in 1974, it killed 66 people, displaced thousands, and left the city in ruins. Yet, it also sparked an extraordinary national response that redefined how Australia prepares for and recovers from natural disasters. Darwin, once devastated, now stands as a modern, resilient city—built not just to recover, but to withstand the worst. ASPI’s new report, released in honour of this anniversary, takes a deep dive into Cyclone Tracy’s lasting impact on Australia’s disaster management. It explores how the event prompted major shifts in urban planning, building codes, and national security frameworks...

  

ASPI

Australia and South Korea: Leveraging the Strategic Potential of Cooperation in Critical Technologies, December 2024. Cooperation between Australia and the Republic of Korea (hereafter South Korea or the ROK) in a range of critical technology areas has grown rapidly in recent years. Underpinned by the Australia – South Korea Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Cyber and Critical Technology Cooperation signed in 2021, collaboration is currently centred around emerging technologies, including next-generation telecommunications, artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. Such technologies are deemed to be critical due to their potential to enhance or threaten societies, economies and national security. Most are dual- or multi-use and have applications in a wide range of sectors...

  

ASPI

Martial Law and Political Polarization: What’s in Store for South Korea? December 2024. On December 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared emergency martial law, shocking both the country and the rest of the world. However, the martial law was only in place for a few hours before being rescinded by the National Assembly. Yoon’s decision to impose martial law sparked protests in both civic society and the opposition, with many urging that he and his supporters accept responsibility for their actions. Following weeks of uncertainty and a lack of consistent action to deal with the fallout from the martial law debacle, the National Assembly impeached Yoon on December 14, stripping him of presidential powers while the Constitutional Court conducts an investigation...

  

ISDP

“Yizhou 夷洲” and “Liuqiu 流求” in Historical Chinese Texts: International Relations on the Northeast Asian Seas (3rd-17th Centuries), December 2024. Sun Quan 孫權, Emperor Da of the Eastern Wu, and Emperor Yang of Sui Yang Guang 楊廣 sent armies across the sea to invade Yizhou and Liuqiu between the 3rd and the 7th centuries. Since 1874, when the French sinologist Léon d’ Hervey Saint-Denys proposed the theory that Liuqiu of the past is Taiwan, giving it a close historical relationship with China, the question of whether Taiwan or Ryukyu 琉球 is the historical Liuqiu has been a significant topic of academic contention. Yizhou was brought into this discussion by the research of Ichimura Sanjirō 市村瓚次郎 in 1918, which similarly explored the question of whether Yizhou is Taiwan or Ryukyu. This paper uses the Hanyu pinyin “Liuqiu” for antiquated toponyms in historical documents, including 流求 and 流球. “Ryukyu” is commonly used to refer to 琉球, the modern formulation in use since the Ming-dynasty of China, in Western languages...

  

ISDP

The Convergence of Disinformation: Examining Russia and China’s Partnership in the Digital Age, December 2024. The spread of disinformation has been a longstanding issue since the establishment of communication between societies. It has been used as a tool to spread propaganda and deceive adversaries in the political and intelligence sphere for centuries. In modern times, the internet has provided extensive opportunities to spread misinformation and manipulate information on a global scale. Western liberal democratic states, due to their open societies, have been heavily targeted by adversaries aiming to cause political turmoil, distrust, and instability through the effective use of disinformation and manipulation of information campaigns. The digital age has ushered in an era where the manipulation of information has become a potent, and easily accessible, tool in the arsenal of statecraft...

  

ISDP

Central Asia in the Energy Transition, December 2024. The United States, Europe, the United Nations and more are promoting a top-down energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which shows no signs of emergence. Under this scenario, Europe and the global market are likely to maintain demand for the energy riches of Central Asia for many decades to come. The gas market of Central Asia itself requires additional gas volumes as well. In order to lower carbon emissions and air pollution and improve public health in Central Asia, the ideal policy in the region is increased access to natural gas that can replace the widespread burning of biomass and lump coal. Current European policies promote expanding electrification and is leading to a new look at nuclear energy. Accordingly, the uranium deposits of Central Asia have become of high commercial and geopolitical interest.

 

ISDP

High Frequency Macroeconomic Forecasts Current Quarter Model: 2025Q1, January 2025. Compared to the 3.0% economic growth in the first half of 2024, changes in consumption patterns among Hong Kong residents and shifts in travel patterns among mainland tourists have respectively resulted in weaker local private consumption expenditure and lower-than-expected improvements in tourism-related service exports. Economic growth slowed in the second half of 2024, with a 1.8% growth recorded in 24Q3. Hong Kong’s real GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% in 24Q4, with an estimated annual growth of 2.5% for the year 2024 as a whole...

  

HKU

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #25: Managing State-Federal Relations: Growing Pressure on Malaysia’s Madani Administration. Federal-state relations in Malaysia today are more dynamic than ever before, with states having changed leadership several times following the 2022 general election and several state-level elections between 2020 and 2023. At present, there are seven states under the Pakatan Harapan–Barisan Nasional (PHBN) grand coalition—three with PH Chief Ministers and four with BN Chief Ministers, four states under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition comprising the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), and Sabah and Sarawak under their respective state-specific coalitions Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), the latter two of which support the unity government at the federal level...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #26: Malaysia’s Motorcycle Sector: Past and Present Possibilities in an Era of Energy Transition. Malaysia has traditionally adopted an intensive automotive industrialization model and created its own vehicles under national brands. The national car project started with Proton in 1983, and the national motorcycle project with Modenas in 1995. While policies and scholarship have focused on national car projects, the two-wheeler sector has stood in their shadow. Modenas witnessed early growth and remains a popular brand after Yamaha and Honda; it has however failed to hit export targets, owing to limited technology transfer and the inability to scale. In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the two-wheeler sector, focusing on phasing out combustion motorcycles in favour of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws). Still nascent, Malaysia’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) sector appears to prioritize an extensive model of assembly and distribution rather than the protection of home-grown brands...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #27: Building upon Deep Trust: ASEAN-Japan Ties at a Crossroads. Over the past five decades, ASEAN-Japan relations have thrived on a foundation of mutually beneficial cooperation and shared interests. This partnership has matured into a multifaceted collaboration deeply rooted in a common commitment to friendship, mutual understanding and trust across cultural, linguistic, and historical differences. The alignment between ASEAN and Japan, notably demonstrated in the Joint Statement on Cooperation on ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific adopted at the 23rd ASEAN-Japan Summit in 2020, underscores a shared interest in shaping the region’s future. While approaches and priorities may vary, both sides find common ground through a reaffirmation of key values such as an open rules-based order and a multilateral trading system...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #28: Autonomy in Sarawak and Sabah: Different Paths and Diverging Outcomes. The formation of Malaysia in 1963, governed by the Malaysian Agreement 1963 (MA63), was a defining moment for Sabah and Sarawak. Despite joining the larger component of Peninsular Malaysia, MA63 was designed to: safeguard the rights and autonomy of the two Borneo states; ensure their distinct cultural identities and; grant them more self-governance than that enjoyed by other states in the federation. However, as federal centralization efforts intensified over time, many of these safeguards were gradually eroded. Despite initial similarities, Sabah and Sarawak have taken very different paths in asserting their autonomy. Sarawak, with its deep-rooted history of self-governance and strong leadership, has skillfully navigated federal relations and maintained a significant degree of autonomy...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #29: Online Campaign Narratives in Thailand’s 2023 General Election: An Ecosystem Analysis. After almost a decade of semi-authoritarian rule and a series of tumultuous political incidents, Thailand was ready for a reboot. The elections in May 2023 served as the light at the end of the tunnel for voters. Yet, political dramas continued as the Move Forward Party (MFP), the winner of the popular vote, failed to form a government and eventually was rejected from the ruling coalition entirely. Anyway, this paper is not so much about ousting a party elected by the people; rather, it seeks to explore the pathways of persuasion employed by political parties in Thailand’s pivotal 2023 general election. While it is clear that parties employ both online and on-ground tactics to reach voters, we are particularly interested in the use of social media for campaigning...

  

ISEAS

Latest APEC publications:

  

APEC
Latest ADB Working Paper Series:  

ADB
Latest ADBI Working Paper Series:  

ADB
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ADB

 

 

  

 

 

 

  

 

December 2024

  

 

 

 

  

 

China and Angola: From the Pioneering “Angolan Model” to a “New” Relationship, November 2024. China’s relationship with Angola is an important case in the larger strategic competition between Beijing and the economically developed, liberal democratic states for political influence in the Global South. China has provided large loans to Angola since the 2000s and, in return, acquired Angola’s petroleum to meet China’s high domestic energy demands. Angola has repaid the majority of its debt to China in the form of extracted oil. This contractual arrangement is known as the “Angolan model.” However, China’s large loans only enriched a small segment of Angola’s elite circle and spread serious corruption. The drop in global oil prices since 2014 has left Angola in serious economic distress...

  

EWC

Understanding the United States’ Place in the Pacific: Why the Pacific Partnership Strategy has been Successful for both the Pacific and US, November 2024. Research on the Pacific island’s pursuit of self-governance highlights how the region sits in a post-decolonial era, meaning we understand the issues and problems caused by colonialism with Pacific island polities achieving varied measures of independence. Now, the question is, how do we move forward? Decolonization is not enough—the United States and other Western powers have done it, and while there are traces of it, we need to do something now about the under-resourcing and precarious international standing of some Pacific nations. There is a common experience from the end of imperial rule to the current struggles of formerly colonized states...

  

EWC

Shaping Perceptions: Three Layers of Social Media’s Role in the 2024 Indonesia Elections, November 2024. The political activity on social media has revealed a paradigm shift in political communication in the digital era. Increased access to the internet and social media in Indonesia, particularly after Covid-19, along with demographic changes in the electorate spurred on by an influx of younger voters created an environment in which the election was filtered through three layers of digital reality. These three layers of digital reality mixed actuality, based on information that could be substantiated, and hyper reality, in which fabricated information about the election was perceived as more real than the objective facts...

  

EWC

How the Elections will set Expectations in the Philippines–US Alliance, November 2024. It had been a common staple among observers to predict which candidate would be more beneficial or detrimental vis-à-vis their country’s national interest. In the Philippines, any Filipino would look at US elections exactly this way. But what can the Philippines realistically expect from the US presidential elections in the context of their alliance? I argue that what the Philippines should expect and work hard for is consistent bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats for all its intended defense and foreign policy priorities where the alliance is crucial...

  

EWC

The Economic Implications for Asia of the Trump Program, November 2024. As the election approaches, President Trump is the only candidate who has outlined a detailed agenda when it comes to international economics. Vice President Kamala Harris has offered general ideas about expanding childcare and other benefits for the middle and working classes, presumably to be paid for by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations. Still, she has not gone into much detail on tariffs, except to say that she would be selective in imposing them. She effectively represents a continuation of the status quo on economics...

  

EWC

Asia Navigates Uncertainty and Continuity of US Regional Policy in the 2024 Elections, October 2024. Following a series of interviews and meetings in the Indo-Pacific, a team of researchers have brought forth a comprehensive report regarding the 2024 elections in the United States and their impact on the Indo-Pacific. This analysis incorporates the perspectives of those in the region, from shared concerns to opportunities for engagement.

  

EWC

Persuasive Technologies in China: Implications for the Future of National Security, November 2024. The rapid adoption of persuasive technologies—any digital system that shapes users’ attitudes and behaviours by exploiting physiological and cognitive reactions or vulnerabilities—will challenge national security in ways that are difficult to predict. Emerging persuasive technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI), ambient technologies and neurotechnology interact with the human mind and body in far more intimate and subconscious ways, and at far greater speed and efficiency, than previous technologies. This presents malign actors with the ability to sway opinions and actions without the conscious autonomy of users...

  

ASPI

Darwin Dialogue 2024: Triumph From Teamwork, November 2024. In an increasingly fracturing international system, set to undergo only further strain in the near future, critical minerals are a point of significant international contention. Critical minerals underlie competition across critical civil and defence sectors and promise economic opportunity throughout their supply chain. They are vital to the clean-energy transition with minerals needed for electric vehicle batteries, solar panels, and even wind turbines. Resolving the significant vulnerabilities across critical mineral supply chains is a significant economic and national security challenge. This report—based on an exclusive, invitation-only discussion at the Darwin Dialogue 2024, a 1.5 Track discussion between the Australian, United States, Japanese and Republic of Korean Governments-makes 11 recommendations for government and industry to develop both the domestic and international critical minerals sector...

  

ASPI

The Economic Leash: China’s Financial Tethers and Global Power Plays, November 2024. China’s emphasis on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and its integration into global markets have allowed it to wield significant influence internationally. Nonetheless, this focus on rapid expansion has created disparities within the Chinese economy, such as regional inequalities, a reliance on debt-fueled growth, and a fragile financial system. These economic challenges impose limitations on China’s broader strategic objectives, particularly its military ambitions. The global financial system, especially China’s stock market, acts as a stabilizing force, as economic volatility directly affects China’s capacity to engage in risky geopolitical behavior...

  

ISDP

China’s Himalayan Hustle: Revisionism Resistance Must be the Order of the Region, November 2024. This edited volume brings together papers to highlight the challenges and opportunities in mapping China’s Himalayan hustle. It aims to advance key debates about the importance of this region to maintain a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and to defend the liberal international order. The special volume would also be a valuable contribution to the literature on China’s attempts to dominate the Himalayan region and its resources, and will generate new insights into how to integrate this strategically vital region into the Indo-Pacific construct. Besides the Introduction, this volume has six sections. Section I focuses on the issues arising out of Himalayas as a strategic arena. It looks at China’s revisionism in the Himalayas, in particular its neighborhood strategy. It also explores Japan’s strategic outlook on China’s Himalayan tactic...

  

ISDP

Russian and DPRK Military Cooperation in Ukraine – A Win-Win? November 2024. In early August 2024, Ukraine launched a significant offensive in the Kursk region in Western Russia which may have prompted the activation of the DPRK-Russia Strategic Partnership Agreement and triggered the DPRK’s deployment of troops to Russia. The involvement of foreign military personnel represents a significant escalation and shift in the conflict, further complicating the geopolitical balance internationally as more actors become directly involved. This issue brief discusses how the deepening military collaboration between Russia and North Korea poses several risks and benefits to both countries and new challenges to the Western alliance against Russia’s war in Ukraine.

  

ISDP

Report of the First Stockholm Forum on Himalaya, November 2024. The first Stockholm Forum on Himalaya was organized by the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) on October 17, 2024, in Stockholm, Sweden. The flagship event of the ISDP’s Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) was titled “Mapping China’s Himalayan Hustle.” The forum probed the intricacies of China’s role as a revisionist power in the Himalayan region, exploring how its infrastructure development, military strategies, and diplomatic initiatives were reshaping the geopolitical landscape. In the context of growing tensions and strategic competition in Asia, particularly in the Himalayas, the conference aimed to foster dialogue among scholars, and experts from India, Europe, East Asia, and the United States on the broader ramifications of China’s ambitions...

  

ISDP

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #26: Malaysia’s Motorcycle Sector: Past and Present Possibilities in an Era of Energy Transition. Malaysia has traditionally adopted an intensive automotive industrialization model and created its own vehicles under national brands. The national car project started with Proton in 1983, and the national motorcycle project with Modenas in 1995. While policies and scholarship have focused on national car projects, the two-wheeler sector has stood in their shadow. Modenas witnessed early growth and remains a popular brand after Yamaha and Honda; it has however failed to hit export targets, owing to limited technology transfer and the inability to scale. In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the two-wheeler sector, focusing on phasing out combustion motorcycles in favour of electric two-wheelers (E2Ws)...

  

ISEAS

Trends in Southeast Asia 2024 #24: The Rising Role of Chinese Firms in Southeast Asia’s Automotive Supply Chain. Chinese firms have become global leaders in the electrification, networking and intelligentization of vehicles. They are globally dominant in minerals extraction and processing and battery production for electric vehicles (EVs) and are becoming internationally competitive in the enabling microelectronics, components and systems. This report covers the role of Chinese firms in Southeast Asia across five segments of the EV supply chain, namely minerals extraction and processing; battery manufacturing, energy storage and charging; original equipment manufacturer (OEM) production of complete vehicles; microelectronics design and manufacturing; and research and development activities...

  

ISEAS

Financial Stability Review 2024. Global economic activity has remained resilient, while disinflation progressed in 2024. However, the global economy confronts heightened uncertainty, trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts that raise the probability of adverse shocks. Trade-dependent small economies could face a confluence of risks, including potential terms-of trade shocks, slower global growth, higher-for-longer rates, and renewed dollar strength. The build-up of financial imbalances, including fiscal and credit risks, stretched asset valuations and leveraged positions, may amplify these risks. Sudden spikes in global financial market volatility, as evidenced in August, could lead to the disorderly unwinding of leveraged positions, sharp asset repricing or a sudden retrenchment in cross-border financial flows...

  

MAS

Monetary Authority of Singapore: Macroeconomic Review, Volume XXIII, Issue 2, October 2024 (Full Report). In the July 2024 Monetary Policy Statement, MAS maintained the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, with no change to the width of the band or the level at which it was centred. Since then, the S$NEER has been appreciating gradually in line with the policy band. The global economy has remained broadly resilient. Growth has been steady in the US, sustained by domestic demand, but has been weaker in the Euro area. In China, exports were buoyant in the first half of 2024, but domestic spending continued to be subdued amid the housing market downturn. Regional economies meanwhile have benefited from the sustained upturn in the global electronics cycle, with investments supported by tech-related activities...

  

MAS

Singapore Asset Management Survey 2023. Global assets under management (AUM) increased by 12% and Asia AUM similarly trended up by 8% in 2023, on the back of gains in global bonds and
equities after a challenging 2022. Singapore’s AUM grew by 10% to S$5.4 trillion (or US$4.1 trillion), faster than the AUM growth in Asia. Singapore serves a key gateway for global asset managers and investors to tap the region’s growth opportunities, with 77% of AUM sourced from outside Singapore, and 89% of total AUM invested outside the country. Discretionary AUM accounts for more than half of total AUM in 2023, as asset managers continue to base their key
investment professionals and decision makers in the country...

  

MAS

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The Case for an Indo-Pacific Economic Resilience Bank, October 2024. Eighty years ago at Bretton Woods, leading countries gathered to design an international financial architecture needed to sustain a broadly open world economy and global financial stability. The institutions that emerged remain important, but they are struggling to rise to the modern-day challenges posed by climate change and economic insecurity. The world faces a multi-trillion-dollar financing gap to reinvigorate stalling global development and create diversified green supply chains to enable a secure clean energy transition for all countries...

  

Lowy

Nusantara: Climate Dilemmas of a “Green” Capital City in Indonesia, October 2024. Even before Indonesia’s independence, its leaders had drafted plans to relocate the capital city. Proponents gave various reasons at different times, but with Jakarta’s stifling traffic and perennial flooding, the government is now translating visions of relocation into action. Construction of the new capital, Nusantara, is already underway in East Kalimantan province. Nusantara is an ambitious and symbolic nation-building project that positions Indonesia as an increasingly confident player on the international stage...

  

EWC

Indo-Pacific Lens on the Arctic: How US Partners in Asia View Arctic Security and Governance, August 2024. Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and India joined the Arctic Council as observers in 2013, concurrently with China, but their perspectives have not received sufficient attention. This paper examines how US partners Japan, South Korea, India, and Singapore view their role in Arctic governance and security and what this means for the United States. From the perspective of Indo-Pacific states seeking to access Arctic shipping routes and resources and participate in Arctic science and governance, the Russia-administered Northern Sea Route (NSR) was a crucial gateway until 2022...

  

EWC
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EWC

Why the World Can’t Afford to Keep Taiwan Out of Interpol, October 2024. Taiwan’s exclusion from the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) presents a critical gap in the global effort to combat transnational crime. As criminal networks become more sophisticated, particularly in areas such as cybercrime, human trafficking, and terrorism, seamless international cooperation is essential. Despite Taiwan’s strategic importance in the Asia-Pacific region and its advanced law enforcement capabilities, it remains excluded from Interpol’s systems, creating a vulnerability in the global security framework...

  

ISDP

Elevating Democracy via Transatlantic Collaboration, October 2024. In collaboration with the U.S. Embassy in Stockholm, the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP) organized a series of conference events from March 11 to 14, 2024, held in various locations including Stockholm, Gothenburg, and a final closed-door roundtable in Luleå with local stakeholders. The goal was to raise awareness and encourage dialogue on the challenges posed by authoritarian regimes exploiting international research collaborations and corporate ownership for illiberal purposes...

  

ISDP

BRICS: Evolving into a Vehicle for Inclusive Multilateralism? October 2024. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) is a group of major emerging economies that seeks to reform global governance and foster alternatives to established financial institutions. First convened in 2009, BRICS has gradually expanded its cooperation areas beyond economics to include various new sectors, such as security, energy, infrastructure, science, technology, digital economy, healthcare, and green development. BRICS operates as a flexible intergovernmental organization without a permanent secretariat or founding charter, and functions through consensus-based decision-making, guided by implicit, semi-codified internal rules...

  

ISDP

Structural Transformation and Inclusive Growth in Cambodia: Country Diagnostic and Product Space Analyses, October 2024. Cambodia aims to become an upper middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. This study provides a country diagnostic analysis of the Cambodian economy. An empirical analysis based on product space is carried out to identify product diversification and future growth opportunities to guide Cambodia’s structural transformation path. By addressing the key constraints to intra-sectoral diversification, Cambodia would be better placed to navigate the inherent trade-offs between capabilities, complexity and opportunity gain.

  

ISEAS

Digital Capacity Building for Own-Account Workers in Singapore, October 2024. Own-account workers are self-employed persons who engage in a trade or business without employing any paid workers. Own-account workers are not only delivery riders and private-hire car drivers but are also real estate and property agents, information and communication technology professionals, science and engineering professionals, and freelancers in the arts, media, creative, entertainment and sports industries. Without a singular long-term employer that can help to facilitate or support their upskilling, own-account workers are left to navigate the complexities of upgrading their skillsets to remain competitive in the workforce on their own. Despite own-account workers making up a third of the global workforce, research on the role technology plays in their work and their digital upskilling needs remains scarce...

  

IPS

International Vertical Equity in Global — An Asian Perspective, September 2024. Rising multipolarity is seen to be leading to a fracturing of the global economy, which has hitherto been characterised by efficiency, multilateralism and a level playing field. Amongst many responses, some have focused on the expertise and incentives that small states might have to keep the global system together. For example, it has been argued “small states can create effective (if restricted) multilateral groupings that are either plurilateral or minilateral, but that can seamlessly transition to open, inclusive multilateralism when interests again align”...

  

IPS

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