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Northeast Asia's Turbulent Triangle: Korea-China-Japan Relations,
January 2014
Talib or Taliban? Indonesian Students in Pakistan and Yemen, September
2011
Anthony Bubalo, Dr Sarah Phillips, Samina Yasmeen
In 'Talib or Taliban? Indonesian students in Pakistan and Yemen', the
Lowy Institute, in collaboration with the Centre for International
Security Studies at Sydney University and the Centre for Muslim States
and Societies at the University of Western Australia, looks at whether
Indonesian students studying at Islamic institutions in Pakistan and
Yemen pose a risk in terms of future patterns of extremism in Indonesia.
Courting Reform: Indonesia's Islamic Courts and Justice for the Poor,
December 2010
Tim Lindsey Cate Sumner
Western perceptions of Islam in Indonesia are often dominated by images
of radical minorities seeking a shari’ah state. In reality, however,
mainstream Islamic institutions have played an important part in the
post-Soeharto process of democratisation and institutional reform. Among
them are Indonesia’s Islamic courts, the Pengadilan Agama or Religious
Courts.
In a ground-breaking new Lowy Institute Paper, 'Courting reform:
Indonesia’s Islamic courts and justice for the poor', Cate Sumner and
Tim Lindsey explore how the Islamic courts have embraced reform within a
judicial system notorious for corruption and incompetence, taking the
lead in efforts to deliver decisions that are more accessible,
transparent and fair, especially for women and the poor.
Confronting Ghosts: Thailand's Shapeless Southern Insurgency, April 2010
Dr Joseph Chinyong Liow, Don Pathan
In this Lowy Institute Paper, Joseph
Chinyong Liow and Don Pathan examine the ongoing violence in the
majority Muslim Malay provinces of Thailand’s south. Through
unprecedented fieldwork, the authors provide the deepest and most
up-to-date analysis of the insurgency and problems the Thai Government
faces in dealing with it.
Joseph Chinyong Liow is the Associate Dean at the S. Rajaratnam School
of International Studies and Don Pathan is a senior reporter at The
Nation newspaper in Bangkok.
The Mekong: river under threat, November 2009
Dr Milton Osborn
In this new Lowy Institute Paper, our
Visiting Fellow, Dr Milton Osborne, evaluates the potentially huge
social and environmental risks for the Mekong River and the millions who
depend on it for their livelihood of planned dam projects in Laos and
Cambodia. The mighty Mekong River is one of the key areas globally for
the contest between economic development and social and environmental
sustainability and for effective political cooperation between the
states of mainland Southeast Asia themselves. In both cases the
challenge is not being met.
China and the global environment: learning from the past, anticipating
the future, November 2009
Dr Katherine Morton
China and the global environment: learning
from the past, anticipating the future
China's environmental problems are now at the forefront of domestic and
international concern. In this new Lowy Institute Paper, 'China and the
global environment: learning from the past, anticipating the future', Dr
Katherine Morton examines the potential for China's system of
environmental governance to respond effectively to the crises, both
within and beyond territorial boundaries. .
Confronting the Hydra: Big Problems with Small Wars, November 2009
Lieutenant Colonel Mark O'Neill
Australia's current role in Afghanistan is
the latest experience in a long history of involvement in
counterinsurgency conflicts or ‘small wars’. Such commitments may begin
as wars of choice, but history suggests they can turn into wars of
necessity, and their costs and political impact can be large. In this
Lowy Institute Paper, Mark O’Neill charts the enduring nature of
Australia’s problems with such wars. He concludes that, as a democratic
middle power that chooses to wage counterinsurgency conflicts, Australia
needs improved strategic policy approaches and capabilities to overcome
a complex and many-headed threat.
A Focused Force: Australia's Defence Priorities in the Asian Century,
April 2009
Professor Hugh White
In this new Lowy Institute Paper, Visiting
Fellow Hugh White calls for Australia to abandon the 'Balanced Force'
concept and refocus its military on managing strategic risks related to
the rise of China. Professor White argues that Chinese power will
challenge US primacy, undercutting the basic assumptions of Australian
defence policy. He poses questions about the risks Australia faces over
coming decades, how armed force can help manage those risks, whether
current forces are up to the job, and whether the country can afford
forces that are. This paper, with its controversial force-structure
recommendations, is a major contribution to the Australian security
debate on the eve of the 2009 Defence White Paper.
Zealous Democrats: Islamism and Democracy in Egypt,
Indonesia and Turkey, October 2008
Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy, Whit Mason
The question is often asked 'What will
Islamists do to democracy?' But it seems equally valid to ask 'What
might democracy do to Islamists?' In this new Lowy Institute Paper
Anthony Bubalo, Greg Fealy and Whit Mason examine how three different
Islamist movements, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Prosperous
Justice Party in Indonesia and the Justice and Development Party have
sought to adapt to democratic politics and how in turn electoral or
democratic participation has shaped the evolution of their ideology,
policies and activism.
Into Africa: How The Resource Boom Is Making Sub-Saharan
Africa More Important To Australia, August 2008
Roger Donnelly and Benjamin
Ford
The international resource boom has spurred
a hunt for new mineral and hydrocarbon reserves, and an important new
frontier in this search is Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Australian resource
companies are now spending tens of billions of dollars on exploration
and development, and engineering and service companies are clinching
billions of dollars of contracts, across SSA. In a new Lowy Institute
Paper, Roger Donnelly and Benjamin Ford describe how Africa now matters
much more to corporate Australia, assess the drivers and dimensions of
the SSA resource boom, and examine some of the implications for
Australian companies and Australian public policy.
The Emerging Global Order, March 2008
Dr Russell Trood
This Lowy Institute Paper by Senator Russell
Trood explores the shifting foundations of the emerging global order. It
identifies the fault-lines of today's world politics and assesses the
effectiveness of traditional approaches to armed force, international
organisations and international law.
It combines a comprehensive survey of the challenges facing the
international community - from terrorism and nuclear proliferation to
climate change, pandemics, population and energy pressures - with a set
of recommendations to guide Australian foreign policy under a policy
framework of selective global activism.
World Wide Webs: Diasporas and the International System,
February 2008
Dr Michael Fullilove
On 18 February, the Lowy Institute launched
Michael Fullilove's new Lowy Institute Paper, World wide webs: Diasporas
and the international system. In this paper, Michael argues that
diasporas (communities which live outside, but retain their connections
with, their homelands) are getting larger, thicker and stronger – with
important implications for global economics, identity, politics and
security. Michael compares diasporas to 'world wide webs' emanating from
states, with dense, interlocking, often electronic strands spanning the
globe and binding different individuals, institutions and countries
together. World wide webs offers a fresh take on globalisation which
raises difficult questions for national governments, including the
Australian government.
The End of
the Vasco da Gama Era, December 2007
Coral Bell
Australia's renowned international security
scholars, Dr Coral Bell AO, sketches the probable future landscape of
the society of states as it emerges from the twilight of US paramountcy.
Dr Bell argues that the world is in transition to a multipolar balance
of six great powers: the United States, the European Union, China,
India, Russia and Japan. She analyses their respective interests and
ambitions, and offers some observations on the options for Canberra
presented by the end of the 'Vasco da Gama era' of Western ascendancy
over Asia.
Enmeshed: Australia and Southeast Asia's Fisheries,
November 2007
Dr Meryl Williams
Southeast Asia's oceans are fast running out
of fish, putting the livelihoods of up to 100 million people at risk,
leading to more illegal incursions into Australia's northern fisheries
and putting the future of shared stocks between Australia and Southeast
Asia at grave risk. A new Lowy Institute Paper entitled 'Enmeshed:
Australia and Southeast Asia's Fisheries' by Dr Meryl J. Williams looks
at the sources of this depletion and what can be done regionally to
address it before it becomes too late.
Media in Australia and Southeast Asia have responded to Meryl's paper
with the original Reuters story being picked up in the Philippines and
Thailand (and Pakistan) while Singapore's Straits Times also ran a story
on the paper.
Australia and Indonesia: Current Problems, Future
Prospects, September 2007
Professor Jamie Mackie
Since the fall of President Suharto in 1998,
Australia-Indonesia relations have been quite volatile with the
Indonesian Ambassador to Australia being withdrawn briefly in 2006, the
first time this has ever happened. Indonesia’s democratisation has
brought the two neighbours’ political systems more in line with each
other. Yet, this has not led to quieter times. Rather, suspicions in
Indonesia over Australia's interests towards the provinces of Papua have
deepened along with Australian worries about religious developments in
Indonesia.
In his new Lowy Institute Paper, Professor Jamie Mackie, a very
experienced Indonesia analyst who has researched the bilateral
relationship for over five decades, evaluates the sources of this
volatility and ways the two governments can counteract them and the
potential problems if things stay as they are.
Second Thoughts on Globalisation, June 2007
Mark Thirlwell
For more than two decades, policymakers in
much of the world have pursued pro-globalisation polices. The result has
been a wealthier and more dynamic global economy. Yet today, significant
parts of the developed world are having second thoughts about the
benefits of globalisation, with many of the doubts prompted by the
globalisation-powered rise of China and India. As policymakers and
businesses across the rich countries grapple with the consequences of
the economic re-emergence of the two Asian giants, this latest Lowy
Paper from Mark Thirlwell analyses the growing pressures on governments
to temper the forces driving globalisation.
Howard's Decade: an Australian Foreign Policy
Reappraisal, December 2006
Paul Kelly
In Lowy Institute Paper 15, entitled 'Howard's Decade:
an Australian Foreign Policy Reappraisal', Paul Kelly,
Editor-at-Large of The Australian, evaluates John
Howard's foreign policy, dealing with his attitudes
towards the US, Asia, the use of military power and his
strategic approach to Australia's role in the world.
Beyond the Defence of Australia: Finding a New Balance
in Australian Strategic Policy, December 2006
Professor Hugh White
In Lowy Institute Paper 16, entitled 'Beyond the Defence
of Australia: Finding a New Balance in Australian
Strategic Policy', Visiting Fellow Professor Hugh White
examines the long-term strategic trends facing
Australia, and how we can reconcile their conflicting
demands.
Mindanao: A Gamble Worth Taking, November 2006
Dr Kit Collier , Dr Malcolm Cook
The immersion of foreign terrorists in the long-running
Moro Islamic insurgency in the southern Philippines
turned the Philippines into a front line in the regional
war on terror. The direct links between terrorist safe
havens in Mindanao and the Bali bombings of 2002 and
2005 brought this traumatically home to Australia. The
decade-old peace process between the Philippine
government and the largest insurgent group, the MILF,
offers the best chance of permanently ending the
insurgency and its links to regional terrorism.
A new Lowy Institute Paper by Dr Malcolm Cook and Dr Kit
Collier analyses the prospects for peace in Mindanao and
the threats facing the peace process. It also offers a
number of policy recommendations for the involved
foreign governments to better the odds that a
sustainable peace deal can be struck and implemented.
Quiet Boom: How the Long Economic Upswing is Changing
Australia and its Place in the World, November 2006
Dr John Edwards
After fifteen years of uninterrupted growth, Australia's
quiet economic boom shows no signs of ending. The
longest expansion in Australian history, it has seen
wealth more than double, average income increase by half
as much again, and unemployment tumble to a rate last
experienced more than quarter of a century ago. A new
Lowy Institute Paper by Dr John Edwards, chief economist
for HSBC Bank for Australia and New Zealand, takes a
close look at this long upswing.
The Paper asks where this quiet boom came from, what its
characteristics are, how enduring it may prove to be,
how it is changing Australia and Australia's place in
the world, what it means for Australians and Australia's
place in the world economy, and where it is now headed.
Pitfalls of Papua: Understanding the Conflict and its
Place in Australia-Indonesia Relations, October 2006
Rodd McGibbont
In the latest Lowy Institute Paper entitled Pitfalls of
Papua: understanding the conflict and its place in
Australia-Indonesia relations, Dr Rodd McGibbon calls on
the Australian government to engage more actively in the
public debate in Australia over the Papua conflict. This
debate so far has been dominated by local supporters of
West Papuan self-determination who seriously undersell
the importance for Australian security interests of
strong, stable relations with Indonesia.
By carefully examining the history of Papua's incomplete
integration into Indonesia and its role in
Australia-Indonesia relations, this Paper critically
evaluates the claims of the West Papua constituency in
Australia and provides new ways to support the
development of Papua and of stronger Australia-Indonesia
relations.
Heating up the Planet: Climate Change and Security, June
2006
Dr Alan Dupont
In a pathbreaking collaborative work entitled 'Heating
up the Planet: Climate Change and Security', Dr. Alan
Dupont of the Lowy Institute and Dr. Graeme Pearman, the
former chief of atmospheric research at the CSIRO,
canvass the international security consequences of
climate change especially for Australia's Asia-Pacific
neighbourhood. The Lowy Paper examines the implications
of temperature increases and sea level rise for food,
water, energy, infectious diseases, natural disasters
and environmental refugees and asks whether scientists
may have underestimated climate change risks. The paper
also looks at several low probability, but high impact
climate events which might push the planet past an
environmental tipping point from which there will be no
winners.
The Paramount Power: China and the Countries of
Southeast Asia, May 2006
Dr Milton Osborne
In a new Lowy Institute
Paper entitled The Paramount Power: China and the
Countries of Southeast Asia, Dr Milton Osborne examines
how China's relations with Southeast Asia have
dramatically changed for the better in the last ten
years. FTAs and strategic partnerships have replaced
decades of mistrust and uncertainty. China is now the
paramount power in Southeast Asia with significant soft
power resources and regional goodwill. China's new role
poses new challenges for Japan and the United States in
the region and globally.
Dr Osborne is a Visiting Fellow at the Institute and one
of Australia's leading experts on Southeast Asian
history.
Shared secrets: intelligence and collective security,
March 2006
Dr Simon Chesterman
In a new Lowy Institute
Paper, Dr Simon Chesterman of New York University writes
on the relationship between intelligence and collective
security. Is collective security possible when the
evaluation of and response to threats depend on access
to intelligence that cannot be shared openly? Shared
Secrets: Intelligence and Collective Security examines
the role national intelligence does and could play in
addressing threats to international peace and security,
with particular reference to the contemporary threats of
terrorism and proliferation of WMD.
Chesterman argues it is neither feasible nor desirable
for the United Nations or other international
organisations to develop an independent capacity to
collect secret intelligence; however, they should be
able to receive, access and use sensitive information.
Re-imagining Papua New Guinea (PNG): Culture, Democracy
and Australia' Role, December 2005
Ben Scott
Australia has, perhaps, no closer or more complicated a
bilateral relationship than that with Papua New Guinea. Australia is
deeply entwined with its nearest neighbour and has a major stake in its
future. Drawing on the success of Bougainville, Ben Scott in this Lowy
Institute Paper calls for a new political system in Papua New Guinea and
a new focus for Australian engagement.
Permanent Friends? Historical Reflections on the
Australian-American Alliance, December 2005
Dr Peter Edwards AM
How has the Australian-American alliance survived for
more than fifty years? How can Australian governments ensure that it
retains public support for another fifty years?
Drawing on decades of research and writing on the alliance, this Lowy
Institute Paper by Dr Peter Edwards seeks to answer these questions in
the context of a century of Australian-American relations.
The New Terms of Trade, 2005
Mark Thirlwell
The landscape of the international trading environment
is changing. Progress in the Doha Round remains painfully difficult, a
powerful symbol of the mounting stresses and strains on the multilateral
trading system. Meanwhile, policymakers, frustrated with
multilateralism's shortcomings, continue to turn to bilateral and
regional trade deals, producing an ever-expanding web of preferential
trade arrangements. This is all against a backdrop of major shifts in
the structure and composition of trade flows, as the manufacturing might
of China and India's services-based export model are together
contributing to a fundamental reshaping of the worldwide pattern of
trade.
A new Lowy Institute Paper by Mark Thirlwell looks at this
transformation in the international context for trade and trade policy.
Balancing Act: Taiwan's Cross-strait Challenge, 2005
Dr Malcolm Cook Dr Craig Meer
In the last decade, Taiwan's society has changed rapidly
in ways that are challenging the cross-strait status quo. Reunification
with China is no longer an attractive political proposition, while
Taiwan's vibrant democracy is organised around the question of how to
promote Taiwan's autonomous identity and maintain good relations with
its external supporters and tolerable relations with China.
China is growing increasingly worried that Taiwan is 'drifting away'
from China's goal of peaceful reunification, leading China to put more
pressure on countries to actively reaffirm their One China policies.
Supporters of the cross-strait status quo, like Australia, now need to
think how to incorporate Taiwan's social and political change into their
cross-strait deliberations or risk being caught by surprise when
cross-strait relations take a turn for the worse.
Joining the Caravan? The Middle East, Islamism and
Indonesia, 2005
Anthony Bubalo
September 11 2001 and the Bali Bombing in November 2002
evoked images of a militant Islamist wave sweeping the globe from the
Middle East, radicalising once peaceful Muslim communities around the
world. A new Lowy Institute Paper by Anthony Bubalo and Greg Fealy
critically examines the truth of this perception by exploring the impact
a number of Islamist and 'neo-fundamentalist' currents from the Middle
East have had in Indonesia.
Diaspora: the World Wide Web of Australians, 2004
Dr Chloë Flutter Dr Michael Fullilove
In this Lowy Institute Paper, Dr Michael Fullilove and
Dr Chloë Flutter argue that the community of Australian expatriates is a
great asset for this country.
They examine the Australian diaspora from the perspectives of
demographics, economics and public opinion, and provide some suggestions
as to how Australian institutions can better engage expatriates in our
national endeavours.
Unsheathing the Samurai Sword: Japan's Changing Security
Policy, 2004
Dr Alan Dupont
This Lowy Institute Paper by Senior Fellow for
International Security, Dr Alan Dupont, argues that Japan is moving away
from its pacifist past towards a more hardheaded and outward looking
security posture characterised by a greater willingness to use the Self
Defense Force in support of its foreign policy and defence interests.
This shift is evolutionary, not revolutionary, but it is gaining
momentum and represents a defining watershed in Japan's postwar security
policy which will require some new thinking in Canberra as well as
Tokyo.
River at Risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of
China and Southeast Asia, 2004
Dr Milton Osborne
The Lowy Institute Paper by Dr Milton Osborne critically
analyses one of Southeast Asia's gravest social and environmental
challenges, the damming and dredging of the Mekong River system.
This Paper delves into the conflict in the Mekong between countries'
desire for hydroelectric power to satisfy soaring demand and the
Mekong's fragile ecosystem and role as a primary food source. Over 70
million people depend directly on the river for their livelihood.
Effective regional governance of the Mekong is needed but is not
forthcoming.
India: the Next Economic Giant, 2004
Mark Thirlwell
This Lowy Institute Paper by Mark Thirlwell assesses the
emergence of India as a major new player in today's global economy.
It provides an overview of India's sustained progress with economic
reform to date, examines the degree of the economy's re-engagement with
the rest of the world, and describes some of the challenges that still
lie ahead.
The Paper also analyses the implications of the rise of this new
economic giant for the international economy and for Australia.
India: the Next Economic Giant was officially launched by the Minister
for Trade, the Hon. Mark Vaile, MP, in Sydney on Friday 13 August.
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