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The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly
is an English language Web-based journal devoted to the analysis of the
current issues facing China and Eurasia, as well as the growing relationship
between the two. The aim is to provide readers with reliable assessment of
events and trends in this important part of the world. It also serves to
link the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and
is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and the Silk Road
Studies Program. The journal can also be obtained in print for a fee.
The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 8, No.
4, 2010 (Full
Report).
This issue contains two commentaries, first, on remittances
by migrants workers to the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan in
the wake of the global economic crisis, and second, an
account of Kazakh-Sino relations from a Kazakh's
perspective. The analytical articles in this issue include
discussion on the state of EU-Central Asian affairs, U.S.
foreign policy approach towards Iran’s controversial nuclear
program, and an account of Uyghur Diasporic Nationalism.
These are followed by articles on recent energy developments
in Eurasia, the roles of China and Russia in the SCO,
Sino-Indian trade relations in the context of their ongoing
border disputes, and finally, a discussion on the rise of
China using realist perspectives to shed light on whether a
Sino-Russian alliance will form, and if so, the likelihood
of war between great powers, notably the United States and
China.
Commentaries
Analytical Articles
The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 8, No.
3, 2010.
This is a special issue on Turkmenistan prepared by Luca
Anceschi and Sébastien Peyrouse. It also contains general
articles about China's policy towards Afghanistan,
cross-border pipelines, the use of traditional medicine in
Uzbekistan, the U.S.-Russia "military airbase race" in
Central Asia, and labor migration from Central Asia to
Russia.
Special Issue: Turkmenistan
General
The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 8, No.
2, Summer 2010 (Full
Report). This
is a special guest edited issue prepared by Carol Dumaine
and L. Sergio Germani on the theme of Energy, Environment
and the Future of Security in Central Asia.
The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Volume 8, No. 1,
Spring 2010 (Full
Report)
contains articles on elections in Uzbekistan; the
roles of Great Powers in Afghanistan and Central Asia; the
history of the Fedayeen during the Second World War; the
city of Shihezi in Xinjiang; Caspian energy security; Iran's
petroleum legal framework; and lessons for Europe from the
2009 Russia-Ukraine Gas crisis.
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 4,
December 2009 (Full
Report):
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Editor's Note
Sébastien Peyrouse
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Spain and Central Asia: Prospects for 2010
Nicola?s de Pedro
During the first six months of 2010, Spain holds the
European Union Presidency. At the same time Kazakhstan
would be chairing the Organisation for Security and
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and Uzbekistan would be
chairing the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
This triple coincidence has awoken numerous expectations
in the three capitals, due to, on one hand, the prospect
(...)
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Notes on the Chinese Government's Handling of the Urumqi
Riot in Xinjiang
Yuhui Li
China is facing the daunting task of finding appropriate
measures to deal with the aftermath of the bloodiest
ethnic violence in decades in Xinjiang on July 5, 2009.
The riot took place in Urumqi, the region’s capital
city, and caused the deaths of nearly 200 people and
injury to at least 1,700. On December 30, 2009, nearly
six months after the riot, the information office of
Xinjiang announced that internet services (...)
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Reassessing the SCO Economic Security in the Context of
the "Afghan Factor"
Azganush A. Migranyan
In the light of contemporary political and economic
threats such as terrorism, economic and financial
crises, shortages of resources, and global environmental
problems, regional security issues have been elevated to
paramount importance. But while the need to establish
regional economic security among the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization member states (...)
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Competition for Water Resources in Central Asia and its
Impact on China
Li Lifan
Water has unique features that make it difficult to
regulate using laws designed mainly for land. Water is
mobile, its supply varies by year and season as well as
location, and the same source can be used simultaneously
by many users. The National Analysis and Research Group
from the Chinese Academy of Sciences published its
eighth research report in 2009 (...)
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Peeling the Waziristan Onion: Central Asians in Armed
Islamist Movements in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Peter Sinnott
The specter of a force of close to five thousand Uzbek
Islamic militants throughout the Tribal Areas of North
and South Waziristan was presented to a Pakistan senate
committee in September 2009 by Senator Muhammad Ibrahim
Khan. The history and motivation of the Central Asian
forces that have been in Waziristan (...)
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Central Asia and the European Union: Prospects of an
Energy Partnership
Luba Azarch
Launched in 2007, the “Strategy for a New Partnership”
has increasingly put Central Asia into the focus of
European foreign policy. Seeking to combine a regulatory
and developmental approach with its interests in the
economic, energy, and security realms, the EU hopes to
deepen the relationship with the region. The following
analysis will deal with the European ambitions (...)
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Between Russia and the West: Turkey as an Emerging Power
and the Case of Abkhazia
Laurent Vinatier
Turkey’s foreign policy finds itself in transition.
Considering the new emerging context and the constraints
that Turkey faces, it is essential to assess the real
determinants which would transform Turkish foreign
policy to encompass a more pro-active, independent, and
regional strategy. Abkhazia, since its recognition by
Russia on August 26, 2008, is examined here as a case
study. South Caucasian issues (...)
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Turkey in the Eurasian Energy Security Melting Pot
Thrassy N. Marketos
This article focuses on the theoretical, but also
realistic, question about Turkey’s future geostrategic
orientation. More precisely, the question of whether
Ankara will play a role in the international arena as a
bridge maker between Washington’s political realism and
the EU’s soft power, or whether it will instead pursue a
new Ottoman nationalism (...)
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The Three Blind Spots of Afghanistan: Water Flow,
Irrigation Development, and the Impact of Climate Change
David W. Rycroft and Kai Wegerich
The article discusses the three blind spots of northern
Afghanistan: water flow, irrigation development, and the
impact of climate change. Consideration is given to the
different data sets for the current irrigated areas,
water resources, and future potentials according to
identified projects in northern Afghanistan. The water
accounting programme WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning
System) has then (...)
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 3,
October 2009 (Full
Report):
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Editor's Note
Sébastien Peyrouse
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Presidential Elections in Kyrgyzstan: Strategies,
Context, and Implications
Asel Doolotkeldieva
On July 23, 2009, Kurmanbek Bakiev was re-elected for a
second term with an overwhelming 76.12 per cent of the
vote, leaving the opposition leader Almazbek Atambaev
(8.41%) and the other four candidates, Temir Sariev
(6.74 %), Toktaim Umetalieva (1.14%), Nurlan Motuev
(0.93%), and Jenishbek Nazaraliev (0.83%), trailing far
behind. At first glance, it would seem that the election
results confirmed Kurmanbek Bakiev’s greater popularity
(...)
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Stabilization of Afghanistan: U.S./NATO Regional
Strategy and the Role of SCO
Simbal Khan
In March 2009, President Obama presented the draft of a
new U.S. policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan, which aimed
to address the security slide in Afghanistan with a
spate of new strategies. One aspect of this new thinking
was to address the increasing instability by addressing
the regional dynamics and engaging the main regional
actors. (...)
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Reassessing the SCO's Internal Difficulties: A Chinese
Point of View
Yang Shu
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is composed of
Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and
Tajikistan. They possess a great amount of resources,
and there is a lot of room to enhance multilateral
economic and social cooperation under the SCO framework.
However, integration among the SCO members remains weak.
They have very diverse levels of economic development
(...)
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Iran and India's Cooperation toward Central Asia
Mahmoud Balooch
Iran, located by the Persian Gulf, Oman Sea, and Central
Asia, is in the center of a perpetual “hot spot” in
world affairs. It is situated at the eastern end of the
oil-rich Persian Gulf and a possible export route for
the natural resources of Central Asia. Iran’s
geostrategic position allows it to play an important
role in connecting India to Central Asia militarily and
strategically. India sees Central Asia and Iran,
situated at the crossroads of overland trading routes
(...)
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Revisiting Female Suicide in Muslim Tajikistan:
Religious, Cultural, and Public Health Perspectives
Alisher Latypov
This article explores religious, cultural, and public
health dimensions of female suicide in post-Soviet
Muslim Tajikistan by contextualizing the findings from
interviews with Tajik women and staff of the
Dushanbe-based Burn Center, Toxicology Center, Emergency
Department and Surgery Center within broader historical
material, archival sources, religious texts, cultural
studies, and scholarly research of suicide and
self-immolation (...)
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Perspectives on the SCO: Images and Discourses
Selbi Hanova
This article looks at the image construction of the SCO
in the West and its own self-image as well as the
history of discourse construction on the organization.
The study utilizes constructivist lenses in order to
investigate the reasons for certain image creation and
trends/patterns in the activities of the SCO that
contribute to the appearance of varying discourse. Such
analysis is aimed at presenting relevant insights for
policy formulations (...)
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The Collective Security Treaty Organization, the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and Russia's
Strategic Goals in Central Asia
Alexander Frost
The Collective Security Treaty Organization and the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization have both proved to be
key security-coordinating and training instruments in
Central Asia. From Moscow’s point of view her security
goals are superbly met through both. However, from her
strategic standpoint the dual existence of these two
organizations, the former Russian backed the latter a
Chinese initiative, presents both benefits and major
strategic drawbacks. This article examines how their
dual existence affects Russia’s (...)
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India's Approach to Central Asia: Strategic Intents and
Geo-political Calculus
Jagannath P. Panda
There is a widely held assumption that India’s growing
military and security contacts in Central Asia in the
last few years have made it a promising player in the
region’s politics. But has India already emerged as a
major player in Central Asia or is it in the process of
becoming one? To what extent does the Great Game lens
capture the real dynamics of India’s influence in
Central Asia? (...)
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The Dynamics of Bilateral Relations in the South
Caucasus: Iran and its Northern Neighbors
Farhad Atai
The Islamic Republic of Iran enjoys close and friendly
relations with the small Christian Republic of Armenia,
rather than with the larger and seemingly more important
Shi’ite Republic of Azerbaijan. While Iran’s close
relations with Yerevan have a great deal to do with
Armenia’s geographic and economic isolation, the Islamic
Republic’s distant relations with Azerbaijan are a
result of mutual suspicion and mistrust. Historically,
Russia’s special relationship with Iran (...)
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 2,
May/June 2009 (Full
Report):
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Editors' Note
Nicklas Norling
Among the many significant developments in the wider
Central Asian region (incl. Afghanistan) in the past
half year, there are two parallel forces at play which
promise to have profound implications for regional
stability. Most important is perhaps the inclusion of
Afghanistan as a central component in the U.S.-Russia
“reset”. Both countries have also stepped up their
activities in Afghanistan. While the U.S. is sending an
additional 50.000 troops to the country, Russia has
boosted humanitarian aid, political contacts, and
investments in Afghanistan (...)
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Why Does China Have No Business in Central Asia?
Martin C. Spechler
Although China is very active in trying to secure energy
and some other raw materials from Central Asia, there is
no significant organized private business activity in
any of the five post-Soviet countries there. This
reflects both a lack of commercially attractive articles
for exchange and the domination of state trading on both
sides of the border. "Staple globalism" in Central Asia
does not look to Asia; China is not yet developing
foreign business capabilities (...)
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The Militarization of the Caspian Sea: "Great Games" and
"Small Games" Over the Caspian Fleets
Marlène Laruelle and Sébastien Peyrouse
The militarization of the Caspian sea has considerably
increased in the last few years since the post-Soviet
states decided to establish their own military naval
infrastructure. In a few years from now, new national
military fleets, in particular those of Kazakhstan and
Azerbaijan, will position themselves on the regional
chessboard. This militarization is supposed to respond
to several objectives: the possible perpetration of
terrorist attacks on oil rigs and tankers; the
protection of commercial ships crossing the sea; the
struggle against poaching sturgeon; and the management
of emergency climatic situations (...)
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When the Bear Confronts the Crescent: Russia and the
Jihadist Issue
Didier Chaudet
Central Eurasia has been an important battlefield for
jihadists (i.e. violent Islamists) during the last
thirty years. The Russian approach to this challenge is
of great importance for the stability of the whole area.
Indeed, Russia is historically as much a “Muslim” state
as a Great Power with a strong influence on its
Muslim-populated neighbors. Political and diplomatic
choices made in Moscow have a direct impact on the
evolution of the fight against violent political Islam
in Central Eurasia. It seems that within its borders as
well as in the whole area, the Kremlin does not fully
comprehend the jihadist issues it confronts (...)
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Restoring India's Silk Route Links with South and
Central Asia across Kashmir: Challenges and
Opportunities
Mushtaq A. Kaw
The Indian sub-continent was historically linked to
Central Asia through two major overland corridors, one
across Kabul, Afghanistan, in the South and another
through Kashmir in the North. The trans-Kashmir
corridor, with diverse sub-corridors, was symbolic of
relative peace, prosperity, cross-cultural and
ideological fertilization and human security until late
1940s. Unfortunately, it ruptured in 1947 with the
division of the Indian sub-continent into India and
Pakistan, and was further affected by the Indo-Chinese
and Indo-Pakistan wars in the 1960s and 1970s. India’s
overland connections with her northern neighborhood came
to a standstill to the detriment of its diverse
socio-cultural and politico-economic interests (...)
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Organized Crime in Central Asia: A Threat Assessment
Saltanat Berdikeeva
The threat of organized crime in Central Asia emerged
most clearly in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the 2005 power
change. Despite its surfacing from the shadow, organized
crime in Kyrgyzstan has existed before 2005, while much
of its context and many of its elements are replicated
in the criminal underworld of its neighboring countries,
albeit to differing degrees. A confluence of negative
factors, such as autocracy, “institutionalized” crime,
widespread corruption, deteriorating quality of life,
inadequate law enforcement capabilities, and a lack of
the rule of law, has created fertile grounds for the
growth of organized crime in Central Asia (...)
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume 7, No. 1, February 2009:Central
Asian Perceptions of China (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
6, No. 4,
November/December 2008 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
6, No. 3,
August 2008 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
6, No. 2,
May 2008 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
6, No. 1,
February 2008 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
5, No. 4,
November 2007 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
5, No. 3,
August 2007 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
5, No. 2,
May 2007 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
5, No. 1:
Military Institutions,
February 2007 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume
4, No. 4,
November 2006 (Full
Report):
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly, Volume 4, No. 3, August 2006 (Full
Report)
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly: Terrorism, Volume
4, No. 2,
May 2006 (Full
Report)
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Central Asia in Al-Qaeda's Vision of the Anti-American
Jihad, 1979-2006, p. 5-10
Michael Scheuer
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Terrorism in Eurasia: Enhancing the Multilateral Response,
p. 11-17
Richard Weitz
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East Turkestan Terrorism and the Terrorist Arc: China's
Post-9/11 Anti-Terror Strategy, p. 19-24.
Pan Guang
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Nuclear Smuggling, Rogue States and Terrorists, p. 25-32
Rensselaer Lee
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Reevaluating the Risks of Terrorist Attacks Against Energy
Infrastructure in Eurasia, p.33-38
Pavel Baev
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The Phenomenology of “Akromiya”: Separating Facts from
Fiction, p. 39-48
Alisher Ilkhamov
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Perception and Treatment of the "Extremist" Islamic Group
Hizb ut-Tahrir by Central Asian Governments, p. 49-54
Saule Mukhametrakhimova
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An Al-Qaeda Associate Group Operating in China? p. 55-61
Rohan Gunaratna and Kenneth Pereire
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Will Kazakh Authorities Avoid Extremist Pitfalls? p.
63-67
Marat Yermukanov
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Cross Border Terrorism Issues Plaguing Pakistan–Afghanistan
Relations, 69-74
Rizwan Zeb
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Confronting Terrorism and Other Evils in China: All Quiet on
the Western Front? p. 75-87
Chien-peng Chung
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Fact and Fiction: A Chinese Documentary on Eastern Turkestan
Terrorism, p.89-108
Yitzhak Shichor
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Strategic Surprise? Central Asia in 2006, p.109-130
Stephen Blank
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Counterinsurgency, Counterterrorism, State-building and
Security Cooperation in Central Asia, p.131-151
Michael Mihalka
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Multilateralism, Bilateralism and Unilateralism in Fighting
Terrorism in the SCO Area, p. 153-169
Farkhod Tolipov
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly: Narcotics, Volume
4, No. 1, February 2006 (Full
Report)
The China and Eurasia Forum
Quarterly: Energy and Security, Volume
3, No. 3,
November 2005 (Full
Report):
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Source: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies
Program |
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