ISEAS Working Papers on
Economics and Finance
Politics, Pandemics and Economics: Malaysia’s Post-Covid
Election, July 2024. Malaysia’s fifteenth general
election was in November 2022. Held in the aftermath of the
Covid-19 pandemic, economic recovery was sufficiently robust to
benefit the two political parties PAS and BERSATU which
campaigned as incumbents in the election. There was a shift in
the support away from UMNO to these two parties amongst the
Bumiputra voters in Peninsular Malaysia. Voters’ support for PAS
was particularly strong in constituencies with higher poverty
rates and lower inequality. The opposite is true for PKR and
DAP. The low explanatory power of the economic voting model for
UMNO also hints that other factors that could have reduced
voters’ support for the party in GE2022.
Chinese Investments in Malaysia: Synthesizing the Evidence Ten
Years into the BRI, December 2023. The launch of the BRI in
2013 raised the interests of Chinese investors in Malaysia.
However, views of the BRI in Malaysia are often based on a few
mega projects, which are financed by federal loans. This lends a
misleading view that Chinese investments are motivated by
geoeconomic interests alone rather than commercial interests.
This study synthesizes the existing evidence on Chinese
investments in Malaysia, ten years into the BRI, using an
Antecedent, FDI Decision and Outcome (ADO) framework. It seeks
to shed light on the nature, drivers, and motivations as well as
some of the outcomes of these investments. It is found that
Chinese investments in Malaysia are diverse in terms of sectoral
coverage, drivers, and entry modes while the long-term impact on
technology transfer remains unclear.
Human Capital, Amenities and Trade: The Case of Malaysia,
September 2023. Human capital plays an increasingly
important role in economies undergoing structural
transformation that involves technological upgrading and
sustained trade competitiveness. Both production and
consumption amenities are essential to develop, attract and
support a workforce with high human capital. Different types
of production and consumption amenities are relevant for
different kinds of activities at various locations. As human
capital growth is likely to be accompanied by worsening
inequality, complementary policies are needed to promote
inclusiveness without dampening human capital development.
Unbundling Regimes and Structural Transformation in Malaysia,
August 2023. Technological changes have significant
transformative effects on economic activities. The waves of
technological innovations in transport and ICT have provided
opportunities for globalisation. Malaysia has levied the first
unbundling - enabled by lowering of transport costs - to
industrialise for five decades. The ICT-driven second unbundling
is proving to be more challenging for the country’s
manufacturing competitiveness. Weaknesses in the linkages within
the technology-services-GVC nexus is a structural weakness that
needs to be overcome. This is crucial for effective
participation in the third-unbundling.
The Belt and Road Initiative in Cambodia: Costs and Benefits,
Real and Perceived, March 2023. China is Cambodia’s largest
bilateral donor, lender, investor, and trading partner. Economic
relations have been strengthened by Cambodia’s active
participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Participating in the BRI has costs and benefits. It has
addressed infrastructure deficits, reducing trade and transport
costs, supporting productivity and economic growth. This has
improved living conditions and reduced poverty. On the negative
side, there are concerns over environmental decay, land
grabbing, and associated losses in livelihoods. Benefits appear
to outweigh costs in Cambodia. Nevertheless, China is trying to
improve the environmental, social and financial sustainability
of BRI investments, following international criticisms...
Real Exchange Rate and Firm Productivity: The Case of Vietnamese
Manufacturing, December 2022.
This study investigates the relationship between the real
exchange rate and firm productivity. Using the
difference-in-differences methodology, a persistent real
appreciation in VND has a positive effect on firm productivity
in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector. One of the mechanisms
that could explain this effect is that real appreciation boosts
firm productivity through R&D. Small and medium-sized firms
benefit more from real appreciation than large firms.
Strategic Policies for Digital Economic Transformation: The Case
of Malaysia, November 2022.
Malaysia’s first attempt at digital economic transformation
began in the mid-1990s and lasted for some 15 years. The
Multimedia Super Corridor has some initial success but
underachieved in some areas. The second phase of strategic
policies took place in the period 2016-2021 with the launch of
four successive policies and plans dealing with e-commerce, 4IR
manufacturing and digital economy. The legal and regulatory
landscape for the digital economy has also evolved. Significant
challenges lie ahead given the prevailing digital divide and
unevenness in ICT adoption across industries.
The Political Economy of Education in Myanmar: Recorrecting the
Past, Redirecting the Present and Reengaging the Future,
September 2022.
Myanmar’s education sector has been consistently starved of
investments and resources for many decades. Episodes of
political turbulence have brought frequent crackdowns on
students, with resultant damage to the education system.
Myanmar’s 2021 military coup has had dramatic and adverse
effects on education at all levels. Parallel educational systems
— those of the coup regime, the rival National Unity Government,
and ethnic organizations — now operate in Myanmar. The security
of everyone involved in Myanmar’s education sector is at risk.
As Myanmar moves beyond rentier status, the future of the
country’s education sector will depend on forging an education
sector compatible with diversity, access to modern technologies,
and on educated Myanmar migrants in the diaspora.
Promoting Cross-Border Connectivity in Asia: The Role of the
Asian Development Bank, September 2022.
Improvements in all forms of connectivity increases a
country’s competitiveness by reducing trade costs, which in turn
affects trade and investment flows, and economic development.
Despite significant progress, gaps in both hard and soft
infrastructure remain in Asia. Cross-border connectivity (CBC)
projects can generate significant benefits that cannot be
realised through national initiatives alone. ADB and other
international financial institutions (IFIs) have played a
critical role in filling the gap. However, unless capacity
utilisation is increased by software related improvements, the
borrowings cannot be justified. The digital economy will also
require new types of connectivity due to new modes of service
delivery, and IFIs must respond.
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts in Southeast Asia,
September 2022.
The emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic necessitated the
administration of safe and effective vaccines to achieve herd
immunity. This paper examines the key determinants of vaccine
rollout in Southeast Asia, using a supply and demand model. The
supply of vaccines in each country depends on vaccine
procurement, state capacity, and the logistics infrastructure
while demand is driven by vaccine acceptance. All countries
utilized a multiple sourcing strategy for procurement. Digital
technology facilitated the roll-out of vaccination and the
issuance of digital vaccination certificates. Nevertheless,
logistic challenges and vaccine hesitancy continue to dog
Indonesia and Philippines, so that both have yet to achieve the
WHO targeted 70% vaccination rate by June 2022. Myanmar’s
internal problems continue to hold up its vaccination rates.
Examining the Drivers of Changes in Mean Earning and Earning
Inequality in Indonesia, August 2022.
This paper examines the main drivers behind changes in mean
earning and earning inequality in Indonesia between 2001/2 and
2018. During this period, there was an increase in workers’
education level, average age, job quality, and mean earnings. As
more women participate in the labor market and women earn lower
wages than men, higher female labor force participation lowered
mean earning. For the overall period, the decline in educational
returns at all levels of education contributed negatively to
earnings. Gini index increased during this period, driven by
education distribution effect and spatial location premium
effect...
ASEAN’s
Newer Member Countries in Two Financial Crises: Impact,
Response and Lessons, April 2022.
ASEAN has been through two major financial crises in the
last quarter century: the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis
(AFC) and the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Although there is a voluminous literature covering the
original five members, it has largely ignored the newer
members – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and
Vietnam (BCLMV). For the first time, a systematic analysis
of the experience of the newer members of ASEAN relating to
the AFC and the GFC focusing on impact, policy response and
lessons is provided. Their participation in regional
financial cooperation initiatives in helping prevent or
mitigate the impact of future crises, and how these
initiatives need to be enhanced to better serve them is also
considered.
The WTO’s 2020 Trade Policy Review for Indonesia and Thailand: A
Comparative Assessment, November 2021.
This paper provides an analytical survey of trade policy in
Indonesia and Thailand, in the context of the key findings of
the WTO’s 2020 Trade Policy Reviews. These are historically
dynamic economies that are integrated within the outward-looking
ASEAN protocols and the China-centred East Asian trade and
investment networks. Over the past decade, there have been no
major changes in the two countries’ trade and commercial policy
settings, with Thailand maintaining its more open economic
settings and Indonesia continuing its more hesitant embrace of
globalization. The major drivers of domestic policy settings
have therefore been global factors, including the continuing
rise both of China in the regional and global economies and of
the increasingly China-centred global supply chains. Both WTO
reports provide comprehensive examinations of trade patterns and
policies, although there is room to strengthen the analytical
foundations of future reports.
How Do Natural Disasters Change Consumption Behaviour? Estimates
and Policy Responses from Thailand and the Philippines,
September 2021.
This study examines the effects of natural disasters on
consumption in Thailand and the Philippines, using three large
natural disasters for each country. A decline in consumption is
observed after natural disaster in Thailand. This decline stems
from a reduction in expenditures of the service sector including
recreation, restaurants, and hotels, though the decline is
partially offset by increased spending on non-durable goods. For
the Philippines, declines in overall consumer spending are
observed in response to natural disasters with no specific
sectoral responses in sample. The policy implications of natural
disasters are then discussed in the final part of the paper...
Pandemic Fallout, Disruptive Technologies, and Divergent
Demographics: Policy Challenges Facing Countries in the
Indo-Pacific, August 2021.
New variants of the coronavirus are producing the worst
outbreaks in many countries in the Indo-Pacific. Progress with
vaccine rollouts has been uneven, further contributing to
inequality of outcomes. The pandemic could have lasting effects
by reinforcing nationalism, protectionism, and other trends that
are already undermining globalisation. The most serious
challenge posed by a pandemic induced acceleration towards a
digital economy is the disruption to labour markets, made worse
by divergent demographic trends in the region. Policies that
increase factor mobility can narrow differences in capital-labour
ratios and assist in productivity catch-up to promote more
inclusive growth. Since commodity movements can substitute for
factor movements, regional initiatives that iberalise trade can
also reduce adjustment costs. Investing in a skilled and
flexible workforce remains the long-term remedy...
Fifty Years of Malaysia’s New Economic Policy: Three Chapters
with No Conclusion, July 2021.
The New Economic Policy (NEP) which focused on poverty
reduction and social restructuring has transformed Malaysia
since 1971. Pro-Bumiputera affirmative action was intensively
pursued and has continuously faced pushback, with heightened
debate at key junctures. The NEP was marred by gaps and
omissions, notably its ambiguity on policy mechanisms and
long-term implications, and inordinate emphasis on Bumiputera
equity ownership. Broader discourses have imbibed these elements
and tend to be more selective than systematic in policy
critique. During the late 1980s, rousing deliberations on the
successor to the NEP settled on a growth-oriented strategy that
basically retained the NEP framework and extended
ethnicity-driven compromises. Since 2010, notions of reform and
alternatives to the NEP’s affirmative action programme have been
propagated, which despite bold proclamations, again amount to
partial and selective – not comprehensive – change. Affirmative
action presently drifts along, with minor modifications and
incoherent reform rhetoric stemming from conflation of the NEP’s
two prongs...
Global Supply Chains and the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership: Who Benefits? June 2021.
The recently signed Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) promises to expand trade substantially for
the 15 participating countries. This study unpacks the
differential benefits of free trade agreements by drawing on
insights from the emerging research program on the politics of
global production networks and value chains. A firm’s ability to
benefit from trade agreements is a function of the firm’s degree
of supply chain linkages with partner countries. Leveraging on
an original survey of more than 500 firms in China, the
empirical analyses show that the more backward and forward
supply chain linkages with RCEP countries a firm has, the more
likely it is going to anticipate positive impact from the RCEP.
Furthermore, these results hold even among exporters. These
findings enrich our understanding on the political economy of
preferential trade liberalization and global supply chains and
offer policy suggestions for member countries hoping to maximize
benefits for their businesses from the largest trade agreement
in the world today...
Growth Resilience to Large External Shocks in Emerging Asia:
Measuring Impact of Natural Disasters and Implications for
COVID-19, May 2021.
This study examines the extent to which Emerging Asian
countries show resilience to large external shocks. Its main
objective is to estimate the impact of large-scale natural
disasters (LNDs). Recent large-scale natural disasters (LNDs) in
four Emerging Asian countries: China, India, Indonesia and the
Philippines are examined. LNDs have a large negative impact on
GDP growth in India, Thailand and the Philippines, although the
speed at which the impact wanes differs, with a more persistent
impact in the Philippines. Growth resilience to large external
shocks will be determined by economic systems and policy
considerations. These analyses will provide a useful reference
to consider the impact of COVID-19 pandemic.
The Impact of the Rise in Chinese Imports on Firms’ Performance:
A Case Study on Manufacturing Firms in Thailand and the
Philippines, April 2021. The rapid
rise of Chinese trade in the world today warrants an examination
of its effects on firms’ performance. Using firm level data from
Thailand and the Philippines, this study analyses the impact of
an increase in Chinese import shares on the firms’
profitability, sales, costs, innovative activity and labour
productivity. The results revealed a negative impact on the
firms’ profitability, sales and costs. Additionally, labour
productivity in terms of added value per cost of worker
increased with higher import share. The impact on manufacturing
firms alone was similar, except for a positive impact on
productivity in terms of both added value and sales...
Global Trends and Malaysia’s Automotive Sector: Ambitions vs.
Reality, March 2021. The paper seeks to examine the
development of the Malaysian automotive sector in the midst of
rapid global changes in technology, consumer preferences and
sustainability concerns. The sector represents a case of infant
industry protection which includes, among its objectives, the
state’s aspiration to nurture Bumiputera entrepreneurs as
national champions for the sector. Despite close to three
decades of protection, the two national car projects continue to
depend on foreign partners for technology support. The National
Automotive Policies (NAPs) strive to push the sector towards the
technology frontier with foreign and domestic investments while
seeking to be a regional hub and grooming national Bumiputera
champions...
Using Regionalism for Globalisation: The ASEAN Way, February
2021. In assessing regionalism, it has become customary
to look to the European experience to serve as a benchmark
against which all other regional integration programs are
judged. But ASEAN is different. Compared to Europe, it is
outward- rather than inward-looking, market rather than
government driven, and institution light rather than heavy.
These differences reflect the very different motivations and
objectives of the two regional programs. ASEAN’s success lies in
its almost unique achievement of using regionalism for
globalisation. The metrics that we use to assess regionalism
must reflect true objectives, even if they lie below the
surface. Widely used indicators such as shares of intra-regional
trade and investment not only fail to capture the real story,
but they can point in the wrong direction.
The Prospects and Dangers of Algorithmic Credit Scoring in
Vietnam: Regulating a Legal Blindspot, January 2021. Artificial
intelligence (AI) and big data are transforming the credit
market in Vietnam. Lenders increasingly use ‘algorithmic credit
scoring’ to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness or likelihood and
willingness to repay loan. This technology gleans
non-traditional data from smartphones and analyses them through
machine learning algorithms. Algorithmic credit scoring promises
greater efficiency, accuracy, cost-effectiveness, and speed in
predicting risk compared to traditional credit scoring systems
that are based on economic data and human discretion...
GVCs and Premature Deindustrialization in Malaysia, December
2020. Malaysia has experienced premature
deindustrialization since the early 1990s. The decline in the
relative contribution of manufacturing to the economy has been
underpinned by changes in the key component industries of the
electronic, electrical and machinery industries. The relative
decline in manufacturing has also been accompanied by a decline
in the country’s participation in global value chains (GVCs).
This is particularly true for backward GVC participation.
Macro-level evidence suggests that the decline in export growth
is likely amplified by reductions in the foreign value added in
the manufacturing sector. Micro-level evidence points to
weaknesses in terms of human capital and technology.
The BRI in Malaysia’s Port Sector: Drivers of Success and
Failure. November 2020. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
has been characterised as a large-scale initiative to boost the
movement of goods and services, capital, and people from China
to Southeast Asia and beyond. Transport and logistics are a key
aspect of this enterprise, with many projects focusing on
railways, road networks, and ports receiving priority attention.
However, BRI-related initiatives are often cast in binary terms,
with agency and autonomy almost uniquely ascribed to China-based
firms and funders, and very little attributed to host country
agents or their interests. Since 2013, Malaysia has received
substantial inflows of BRI-related funds for infrastructure,
particularly railways and ports...
The Vulnerability of Jobs to COVID-19: The Case of Malaysia,
November 2020. Malaysia’s economy has been adversely
affected by COVID-19 and the subsequent mobility restrictions
implemented to flatten the curve of the pandemic. This study
estimates the extent and distribution of jobs most vulnerable to
COVID-19. It finds that about 64.5 percent of jobs in Malaysia
cannot be performed from home, after adjusting for internet
access while about 50.9 percent of jobs require high levels of
physical proximity. These jobs are those that are most
vulnerable to COVID-19, particularly if strict mobility
restrictions are reinstated. Workers most at risk are primarily
those that were already vulnerable before the crisis due to
their relatively low education, low level of income and advanced
or very young age. Jobs in less developed regions of Malaysia
are also particularly vulnerable. Against this backdrop, the
study argues that proactive social protection and jobs policies
are needed to mitigate the employment impacts of COVID-19 in
Malaysia...
Chinese Investments in Industrial Parks: Indonesia and Malaysia
Compared, September 2020. Indonesia and Malaysia are
keen to use Chinese investments in industrial parks to foster
industrial development in their respective countries. This paper
seeks to compare Chinese investments in two industrial parks.
Specifically, it analyses changes made in the investment climate
in each country to facilitate inflows of Chinese investments for
the development of the Indonesian-Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP)
and the Malaysia-China Industrial Park (MCKIP). Investment
climate refers to the FDI institutions in a country that are
used for facilitating foreign investments. For Chinese
investments in industrial parks, a pertinent question to ask is
whether these investments are privileged in terms of FDI
institutional arrangements and their differences from the
existing investment institutional arrangements in a country. The
paper finds that Indonesia and Malaysia made special
arrangements to facilitate Chinese investments in the two parks
although differences also abound in the way FDI is facilitated.
COVID-19 and the Poor, September 2020, September 2020. COVID-19
not only highlights existing inequalities, it exacerbates them.
Not only do the poor have higher COVID-19 infection and
mortality rates, they suffer disproportionately from curtailment
measures. As governments try and flatten the infection curve,
the misery curve measuring the loss of incomes, livelihoods and
lives has been rising. These costs tend to accelerate the longer
the lockdown is in place, contributing to an increase in
violations that can reduce the effectiveness of the measure
itself. In countries without broad-based safety nets, it is no
longer a choice between lives and livelihoods because they are
the same for the poor. While developed nations debate the
trade-off between saving lives and destroying livelihoods, poor
countries must consider the trade-off between lives lost through
destroyed livelihoods and lives lost to the virus. These ground
realities suggest that targeted, time-bound measures rather than
prolonged general lockdowns should be considered in poor
countries, should infections start rising, while increasing
targeted testing.
The Landscape of Pricing and Algorithmic Pricing, August 2020. Algorithmic
pricing is the practice of setting prices using computer
programs. Understanding the foundations of pricing practices is
fundamental to an assessment of the nature and potential of
algorithmic pricing. Prices can be set in a number of ways and
the practice of price setting has been examined from different
and sometimes overlapping disciplinary perspectives – economics,
marketing and operations research. The three key activities in
price setting are data collection, demand analysis and
optimization. Computer algorithms are used in these activities
but they may not be fully integrated in practice. The
organizational adoption of algorithmic pricing may assume
different forms depending on the cost-benefit calculus across
different components of price-setting activities...
Changes in the Demographic Structure and Economic Growth, July
2020. The population of East and Southeast Asia has
been ageing rapidly and will begin to decline ahead of other
regions by 2040. By 2060, the elderly will comprise 40% of their
total population, thus making them ‘super-aged’ societies. These
regions are undergoing major demographic structure changes due
to a rapid decline in birth rate and extension of life
expectancy. While increased life expectancy and a lower
percentage of youth population will have a positive impact on
the economic growth in the short and long terms, a higher
percentage of older people will have a negative impact in the
long term. Additionally, growth in the labour force has a
positive impact on the short-term and long-term economic growth.
While ageing population will slow down economic growth in the
long term, it is possible that this decline could be balanced by
a higher labour force growth rate. Surviving in a super-aged
society requires policies that proactively enhance economic
growth...
When Does Trade Reduce Poverty? Revisiting the Evidence for East
Asia, June 2020. East Asia’s openness to trade is often
credited as one of the main drivers behind the region’s
impressive gains in economic growth and poverty reduction. In
this paper, we examine the literature to determine whether there
is a sound theoretical and empirical basis for this presumed
relationship between trade and poverty reduction. Like many
other studies on this topic, we find that the linkages are not
automatic; the impact of trade on poverty is highly
context-specific, and many factors come into play. Complementary
policies are necessary to maximise trade’s potential impact on
poverty reduction. We also explore the role of Aid-for-Trade in
addressing specific trade-related capacity constraints which
prevent developing countries from maximising the benefits from
trade.
Economic Corridors in Southeast Asia: Success Factors, Impacts
and Policy, May 2020. Economic corridors have gained
popularity as a potentially important instrument in the
development and transformation of low and middle income
economies. But why have some countries had more success with
them than others? What role does governance, institutions,
finance and policy frameworks play in determining their success?
How can we measure their impacts? We try and answer these
questions by looking closely at, and drawing lessons from, two
case studies of successful corridors in Asia – Malaysia and
Thailand. A key conclusion is that economic corridors are more
likely to succeed with greater domestic spillovers when the
physical and policy infrastructure are conducive.
Industry 4.0 Policies in Thailand, February 2020. The
Thai government has implemented a number of policies to harness
the potential of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry
4.0). These policies can be categorized into three broad
categories, namely, digital infrastructure, skill formation, and
target industries. As is often observed for other policies in
Thailand, the policy coverage for Industry 4.0 is too broad.
Many aspects are included without a clear prioritisation. There
is no effective mechanism to assess these policies and their
implementation largely depends on government agencies’
preferences. The existing assessment mechanism induces these
agencies to undertake easy-to-achieve activities such as
training...
Determinants of E-Commerce Adoption and Utilisation by SMEs in
Thailand, January 2020. This study empirically investigates
the factors and barriers which hinder e-commerce adoption and
utilisation levels by Thai SMEs in the food and beverage and
retail industries. Older SMEs are likely to have lower levels of
e-commerce utilisation. Larger SMEs are more likely to adopt
e-commerce. Social media and website are significantly drivers
of e-commerce utilisation levels. Food delivery platforms are
crucial in enhancing higher e-commerce utilisation levels in the
food and beverage industry. Smartphones are found to be a
cost-effective tools for e-commerce transactions. The most
significant barriers which can hinder the e-commerce adoption
are customers’ knowledge of e-commerce and internet security...
Economic Reforms in the Aftermath of Regime Change in Malaysia,
October 2019. The 14th General Election in May 2018 brought
about an unexpected change in political rule in Malaysia for the
first time since the country’s independence in 1957. In its
first year of rule, the new Pakatan Harapan-led government
implemented several populist economic policies that were drawn
from its election manifesto. While these policies may have
moderated populist politics to some extent, they have also
weakened the government’s fiscal capacity. Ethnic fragmentation
and a strengthened opposition alliance have also made it
difficult for the new government to implement its ambitious
institutional reform agenda. The new government needs to
formulate and implement a new growth strategy that overcomes
some of the existing structural weakness of the economy...
Agglomeration, Human Capital and Foreign Labour: The Case of
Malaysia, September 2019. Trade, FDI and foreign labour have
been key factors in the growth and transformation of Malaysia.
The deindustrialization of the Malaysian economy has been
attributed by some to the excessive dependence on the relatively
low-skilled foreign labour in the country. This study finds that
there is some evidence that foreign labour weakens the
relationship between labour productivity and agglomeration. This
is likely to take place through the weakening of human
capital-effects by low-skilled foreign labour. Policies aimed at
managing foreign labour need to take into account geographical
agglomeration effects...
Firm Performance and Structural Change: The Case of Thailand,
August 2019. A key aspect of the development process is
structural change. For most countries, this takes the form of a
decline in the contribution of the agriculture sector in the
economy accompanied by the rise of the shares of manufacturing
and services. The theories and empirics of structural change
have mostly focused on economy-wide and sectoral-level analysis.
There is a scarcity of studies on the microeconomics of
structural change due to the lack of long-term panel data at the
firm level. This study undertakes a microeconometric analysis of
structural change by studying how firm-level performance as
defined by ROA and ROE is affected by structural change in the
Thai economy. A key finding of this study is that trends in the
financial performance of firms provide a useful perspective of
the micro-level impact of structural change in the economy.
The Leniency Programme in Malaysia’s Competition Regime: A
Critical Evaluation, July 2019. Malaysia’s competition
law came into force in January 2012. Detailed guidelines on a
leniency programme were published in October 2014. Despite the
leniency programme being designed based on best-practices found
in more mature competition regimes and ICN, it has been under-utilised
in the cartel cases investigated in Malaysia. This under-utilisation
of the programme could be due to the enforcement agency having
too much discretionary
powers. Another reason could be the lack of immunization from
civil proceedings. De-facto government oversight and spillover
from deterioration in the country’s state of governance in the
past could also have affected the public’s perception of
quasi-independent commissions. This is reflected in the
perceptions of the business community on courts and corruption
in the country.
Smallholders and the Making of Malaysia’s Oil Palm Industry,
June 2019. As part of efforts to curb the oil palm
industry’s harmful socio-environmental impacts in Southeast
Asia, scholars and policymakers have been showing more interest
in independent smallholder farming arrangements. Smallholders,
however, continue to encounter significant barriers to entry.
Focusing on Southeast Asia, scholars have often claimed that oil
palms are naturally endowed with processing cost economies
favoring large-scale production arrangements. With their limited
access to capital, technology, and skills, smallholders are
disadvantaged relative to estates. The history of Peninsular
Malaysia, with particular reference to Johor, suggests a
different argument...
The Game of Go: Bounded Rationality and Artificial Intelligence,
May 2019. The goal of this essay is to examine the
nature and relationship between bounded rationality and
artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of recent
developments in the application of AI to two-player zero sum
games with perfect information such as Go. This is undertaken by
examining the evolution of AI programs for playing Go. Given
that bounded rationality is inextricably linked to the nature of
the problem to be solved, the complexity of Go is examined using
cellular automata (CA).
US-China Trade War: Potential Trade and Investment Spill-overs
into Malaysia, May 2019. The trade conflict between the
US and China has the potential to affect Malaysia’s trade with
both countries as both are important trading partners. The
imposition of safeguard tariffs by the US will affect Malaysia’s
solar exports to the US though its exact impact is unclear due
to the complicated implementation of this tariff. The tariffs
imposed on China raises the possibility of trade and investment
diversion to Malaysia. Re-exports play an important role in
Malaysia’s export adjustments to the US and China from 2017 to
2018. The possibility of investment diversion from China is high
given the growing presence of China’s investment in Malaysia
since the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Manufacturing Performance and Services Inputs: Evidence from
Malaysia, February 2019. The Malaysian economy has been
deindustrializing since the late 1990s. The relative decline of
the country’s export-oriented manufacturing sector has led to a
decline in the trade ratio. This could reflect a decline in the
country’s participation in manufacturing global value chains.
The services sector makes important contributions to the
performance of the manufacturing
sector in terms of productivity and exporting. Therefore, any
policy attempt to enhance manufacturing performance is likely to
require improvements in the performance of the services sector.
This is particularly important as there is evidence that the
country’s manufacturing sector is increasingly dependent on
services generated domestically.
Economic Voting and the End of Dominant Party Rule in Malaysia,
February 2019. This essay seeks to empirically examine
economic and non-economic factors that determined the outcomes
of the fourteenth general election in Malaysia. In the election,
the incumbent coalition Barisan Nasional (BN) which had ruled
the country since its independence in 1957 was defeated.
Relatively robust economic growth in months prior to the
elections failed to bolster voter support for the incumbent
coalition. Unemployment and inequality further eroded voter
support for BN. The election also saw a decline in the support
of the Bumiputra community and East Malaysian voters for BN. A
key factor in the end of BN rule was the defections of elite
politicians from UMNO. Mahathir Mohamad, a former Prime Minister
and UMNO President, together with other former UMNO stalwarts
joined the opposition coalition and mobilized voters against BN.
Batam: Life after the FTZ? October 2018. Once an island
of high-tech production and turbo-charged growth, Batam’s
economic fortunes have
waned of late. The traditional pillars of the manufacturing
sector have contracted, investment levels have fallen, the
island’s growth rate is below the national average, and
unemployment has increased sharply. In response, policy-makers
are promoting the development of new sectors to diversify the
island’s economic base. There are debates on whether Batam’s
status should be changed from a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to a
Special Economic Zone (SEZ) to draw in more investment. This
paper aims to contribute to the debates on how to revitalize the
island’s economy...
Education in Malaysia Towards a Developed Nation, September 2018
. Education plays a key role in realising Malaysia’s
aspirations to be a developed nation. This paper provides a
critical assessment of the state of education in Malaysia. The
issues that will be discussed in this paper includes the
country’s current ethos and philosophy of education, technical
and vocational education (TVET), technology and flexible
learning, and governance and financing of higher education. The
paper also highlights critical omissions in the current Eleventh
Malaysia Plan.
SME Policies and Performance in Malaysia, July 2018 This
study aims to achieve two major objectives. First, to assess
policies and initiatives implemented for the development of
small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Malaysia from the
Eighth Malaysia Plan (2001-2005) to the Eleventh Malaysia Plan
(2016-2020) as well as the SME Masterplan (2012-2020). Second,
to analyze the performances and
contributions of SMEs in Malaysia. The study provides a critical
analysis of the adequacy of the Eleventh Malaysia Plan for SME
development including whether the targeted goals for SMEs
towards 2020 can be achieved. A key highlight of the analysis is
the redefinition of SMEs which has greatly affected several
indicators that are relevant to the measurement of the
achievement of targeted goals. The study utilizes content
analysis and the notion of embeddedness to examine the contents
of published government reports on the topic of SMEs development
and their way forward.
Territorial Complementarities and Competition for Oil and Gas
FDI in the SIJORI Growth Triangle, May 2018. After the
initial euphoria, the SIJORI Triangle - formed by Singapore,
Johor (Malaysia) and Riau Islands (Indonesia) - seems to have
been completely forgotten. The growth triangle concept was
initiated to enhance foreign investment. This paper aims to
explore whether firms in the oil and gas industry are really
strategically making use of the different factor endowments
accessible in close spatial proximity. Based on FDI data and
expert interviews, Singaporean firms are taking strategic
advantage of the different factor endowments, especially in
storage and offshore equipment manufacturing. However, Johor and
Riau Islands still focus on lower value-added activities...
Services Liberalization and Export Quality: Evidence from China,
March 2018. Using firm-level export data from China,
this paper empirically examines the effect of domestic
liberalization of services on exporting firms’ quality
upgrading. We examine a number of other trade policies,
including: tariffs in export destination countries; and input-
and output-tariffs in China. Following China’s accession to the
World Trade Organization in December 2001, these trade policies
changed substantially during our sample period of 2000 - 2006.
Our findings suggest that, of all the policies, reduced input
tariffs contributed the most to raising export product quality.
Easing of services’ restrictiveness also resulted in improved
export product quality, but mainly for foreign owned
enterprises.
Industry Dynamics in Growth Triangles: The E&E Industry in
SIJORI 25 Years On, November 2017. The SIJORI Growth
Triangle, which encompasses Singapore, Johor (Malaysia) and
Batam Island (Indonesia), was launched in 1989 as a ‘single
investment destination’ offering differing factor endowments in
close proximity. Singapore was the ‘core’ of the region with
Johor and Batam occupying the land, labour, and
resource-intensive ‘non-core’ spaces. During the 1990s,
investment flows into the three territories, particularly in the
electrical and electronics (E&E) industry, mirrored this
division of labour...
The
Trans-Pacific Partnership: Origin, Evolution, Special Features,
and Economic Implications, October 2017. The
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement was signed by its 12
members in February 2016 after concluding its difficult and long
negotiations. The TPP is an ambitious agreement with high-level
of trade and investment liberalization and comprehensive issue
coverage, setting a new standard for global trade. Large
economic benefits can be expected from the enactment of the TPP.
The ratification of the TPP in its agreed form is not possible
because of the withdrawal of the US from the TPP. The paper
argues that the TPP without the US, or TPP11, should be pursued
by remaining 11 members, to keep the momentum toward trade and
investment liberalization and to fight against growing
protectionism.
Mind the Gap: Explaining Implementation Shortfalls in the ASEAN
Economic Community, September 2017. The ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC) is at a critical crossroad in terms of policy
implementation. ASEAN announced of a significant achievement
rate of 93 per cent at the end of 2015. However, effective
implementation, described as policy execution that generated
tangible benefits for the end-users in their cross-border
activities remained patchy. Following the theoretical discussion
on policy implementation, this paper postulates that it was the
economic conflicts between countries and between firms of a
country that led to a broad and accommodative regional policy
document, thereby affecting the course of implementation. As
implementation is a national issue, organisational conflicts
between government agencies and bureaucrats further distorted
the final outcome, and hindered progress towards meaningful
implementation.
The
TPP: Truths about Power Politics, August 2017. Preferential
trade agreements are negotiated by states. By definition, they
are political in nature. The more powerful the state involved,
the more it can shape the trajectory of trade negotiations. The
three stages of the TPP – before the US joined, while the US was
a TPP member, and the US withdrawal from TPP – reaffirm this
political-economic truth. Political interests often trump
economic ones when it comes to trade agreements. This paper
analyses the three stages of the TPP using the tools of
International Relations. It highlights key political truths that
are reaffirmed by each TPP stage...
Dynamics of Ride Sharing Competition, July 2017. This
paper studies the dynamics of ride-sharing competition.
Ride-sharing is modelled as a spatial two-sided market with
heterogeneous passengers and drivers, both located on a Salop
(1979) circle. The model is simulated to study four aspects of
ride-sharing competition:(i) price distribution and dynamics,
(ii) strategic pricing, (iii) fixed pricing vs. surge pricing,
and (iv) information-sharing. Dynamic platform competition in a
spatial setting can generate distinct and persistent bands of
fluctuating prices. Space and stochastic luck can mitigate
winner-take-all effects in price competition...
Impact of TPP-11 on Japanese Manufacturing Affiliates in ASEAN,
July 2017. This paper discusses how tariff reductions
through TPP may affect Japanese manufacturing affiliates in
ASEAN countries. Without the U.S., there is some uncertainty in
the impact of TPP on the investment and expansion plans of
Japanese affiliates in Malaysia and Vietnam’s textile and
footwear industries. Similarly, it is also uncertain that
Japanese affiliates in ASEAN non-TPP member countries will
shrink their business in these industries. In the case of other
industries, the TPP-11 will not affect Japanese affiliates
because market access will not be different between TPP and non-TPP
member countries.
Should Thailand Join the TPP? July 2017. This paper
reviews the potential gains and losses for Thailand if the
country joins the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Had the
United States remained a member of TPP, the preferential market
access to the country would be a major source of gains. However,
the intellectual property right (IPRs) provisions in the TPP may
have adverse impact on pharmaceutical expenditure in Thailand.
While there are other issues covered in TPP, these are likely to
be either non-binding constraints (e.g. investment agreement) or
having effects that are difficult to be quantified across time
and space (e.g. government procurement, environmental
agreement). While there is belief that the TPP and cumulative
ROO in particular could alter supply chain of production
network, this is unlikely to occur due to a number of exceptions
in the TPP itself.
The
Investment Chapter and ISDS in the TPP: Lessons from Southeast
Asia, April 2017. The investment chapter and
investor-state dispute settlement provisions in the
Trans-Pacific Partnership attracted significant media and public
attention. This paper shows that ISDS-backed investment treaty
commitments, aimed to liberalising and protecting FDI, are
already widespread across Southeast Asian countries. However,
these countries have been subjected to comparatively few ISDS
claims and (very recently) two adverse treaty-based arbitration
awards. Meanwhile, investors from Malaysia and Singapore have
initiated claims. This backdrop partly explains not only why
those two states and the other existing TPP signatories (Vietnam
and Brunei) were willing to agree to ISDS-backed commitments in
that FTA. It also makes it quite likely that ISDS provisions are
not likely to become deal breakers for countries such as
Thailand, the Philippines and even Indonesia in future trade
agreements...
Labour Provisions in Trade Agreements with Developing Economies:
The Case of TPPA and ASEAN Member Countries, March 2017. Labour
provisions have been increasingly included in bilateral and
regional trade arrangements. One recent example was the
Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), signed by twelve
countries in 2016 but abandoned by the US in early 2017. Even
though the ratification of the TPPA remains uncertain, it has
set a precedent in trade policy. This is likely to influence the
formulation of trade agreements involving ASEAN countries in the
future. This paper examines the implications of the TPPA labour
chapter in the context of ASEAN countries that have participated
in the agreement. It discusses the extent these countries need
to undertake domestic reforms in terms of labour rights and
standards.
Evolving Paradigms in Regional Development in Malaysia, October
2016. In seeking to foster economic growth,
policy-makers in Malaysia have also had to grapple conceptually
and operationally with how best to deal with differing income
levels in different parts of the country. In addition, this
challenge has changed in nature over time, in line with the
country’s increasing wealth and urbanization, and as
understandings of what regional development is and how it should
be pursued have evolved. Over the decades, approaches have
shifted away from a sole focus on rural development and an
aspatial approach to regional development towards a greater
emphasis on urbanization and a deeper understanding of the
relationship between location and economic growth...
The Impact of Local Content Requirements on the Indonesian
Manufacturing Industry, October 2016. Local content
requirements (LCRs) are prohibited under the WTO law as they
violate several WTO provisions including the national treatment
principle. Nonetheless, many countries, including Indonesia,
persistently use LCRs as part of their industrial policies.
Countries implement LCRs for various reasons, including to
protect local industries; to create employment; to boost export;
to enhance local innovation capacity; and to support broader
economic development in the country. This paper examines the
impact of LCRs in manufacturing sector in Indonesia, with a
particular interest on the machinery and transport industries.
Since LCRs discourage foreign imports, hence it is expected they
may affect firm’s use of imported inputs...
Reassessing Malaysia’s Export Opportunities in the TPP,
September 2016. The main economic motivation for
forging bilateral, regional and multilateral agreements for
Malaysia is to enhance the export opportunities for its firms as
it is relatively dependent on trade for supporting growth. There
is an extensive literature on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
since negotiations were started five years ago and this
literature continues to grow after the agreement was signed in
February 2016. The literature identifies some overall gains for
Malaysia and some sectoral gains, especially in textiles and
apparel. The objective of this paper is to re-assess these
export opportunities, using a comparative country perspective
since the TPP has 12 founding members...
Determinants of Singapore’s Outward FDI, February 2016. Outward
foreign direct investment (OFDI) has been an important element
in Singapore’s economic strategy since the 1990s, with the
government providing direct and indirect support to support the
internationalization process. Recent OFDI trends indicate that
China has become an important destination for Singapore. In
ASEAN, Singapore’s main investment markets are Indonesia,
Malaysia and Thailand. The Singapore’s OFDI has important
sectoral dimensions, supported by evidence from econometric
analysis. It is also important to distinguish between OFDI stock
and flows. Further research is needed to understand the erratic
behavior of flows in the region.
A Review of the Recent Literature on the Institutional Economics
Analysis of the Long-Run Performance of Nations, January 2016. This
paper reviews the recent (post-2000) literature which assesses
the importance of institutions as a factor determining
cross-country differences in growth rates or in the contemporary
level of “prosperity”. It first sketches how institutional
economics has evolved. It then examines critically the methods
of analysis employed in the recent literature. The paper finds
that this literature has made a major contribution to the
analysis of the causes of economic growth but the relative
importance of institutions as a determinant of long-run growth
and prosperity is still a wide open question.
What Lies Ahead for Malaysian Healthcare? December 2015. Healthcare
in Malaysia has been characterised by a strong public sector
presence where government hospitals and clinics acted as a
primary source of care. The healthcare system has also been
lauded as a model for other developing countries to follow as it
has succeeded in improving the health status of Malaysians over
time. With the rising costs of healthcare over the last three
decades, the government is now facing increasing pressures to
restructure its healthcare system. Social healthcare insurance,
corporatisation, and privatisation have been increasingly seen
as possible measures to supplement the current healthcare system
dominated by the public sector...
Malaysia’s Protracted Affirmative Action Policy and the Evolving
Bumiputera Commercial and Industrial Community, December 2015. This
paper examines the evolution of the Bumiputera Commercial and
Industrial Community (BCIC) in the context of Malaysia’s
protracted affirmative action from 1971 to the present. It
explores, on one hand, how the state has responded to the
demands of different Malay pressure groups and, on the other, to
external shocks arising from economic globalization. These
external factors have compelled the state to deregulate and
liberalize its economic policies which run contrary to the goal
of promoting the development of a BCIC...
(De)centralization
and the Missing Middle in Indonesia and Malaysia, September 2015. Indonesia
and Malaysia were both initially characterized by a powerful,
centralized state apparatus and “soft authoritarianism”.
Following the Asian Financial Crisis, they have had very
different trajectories. In tandem with a transformative
political liberalization process, Indonesia has implemented
far-reaching decentralization reforms. Malaysia’s political
context has remained relatively static, and it has proceeded to
centralize important aspects of governance. Notwithstanding this
initial difference, both cases display a notable similarity –
the re-scaling of state power has occurred at the expense of the
meso-level – provinces in Indonesia and states in Malaysia...
AEC Vision Post-2015: Is an ASEAN Customs Union Feasible?
February 2015. This paper explores the feasibility of
the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) moving forward to the next
step of economic integration, i.e. towards an ASEAN Customs
Union (ACU) post-2015. Effectively, the way to progress towards
an ASEAN custom Union is by forming it among ASEAN-9 members
with Singapore maintaining its existing zero tariff against
non-members, thereby creating a Partial ACU. Using applied
general equilibrium modelling exercise based on GTAP, the
findings suggest that there are potential net positive welfare
gains to be collectively reaped by ASEAN if it moves from an
AFTA to a partial ACU post-2015. However, not all ASEAN members
will individually gain from such an ACU and members may need to
potentially devise a mechanism wherein some member country
welfare losses in an ACU can be compensated by the members who
gain...
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: New Paradigm or
Old Wine in a New Bottle? November 2014. ASEAN is
currently negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) agreement with its six trading partners. The
RCEP has the potential to expand into a Free Trade Agreement of
the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) as it intends to harmonise rules and
regulations across multiple overlapping trade agreements in the
region. However, it faces challenges. The mention of a
flexibility principle and the “ASEAN Way” of decision-making has
led many to believe that the RCEP will be yet another
low-quality trade agreement in the region. As such, the RCEP
presents all ASEAN members an opportunity to take a central role
in setting the agenda for a region-wide agreement. Hence, ASEAN
must make efforts to attain an attractive RCEP vis-a-vis other
competing regional agreements. Accordingly, this paper
highlights what the RCEP is, how it has emerged and the issues
that might affect the agreement’s final quality in order to
evaluate it as a new paradigm or a repackaged version of ASEAN’s
existing trade agreements.
The Evolution of the Electronics Industry in the SIJORI Cross
Border Region, September 2014. In the early 1990s,
Singapore, the Malaysian state of Johor, and the Indonesian
island of Batam sought to leverage their proximity, differing
comparative advantages, and good logistics connections to market
themselves as an integrated unit. After an initial phase of
enthusiasm and considerable investment from electronics
multinationals, attention regarding the cross-border region
waned in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis. Using data from
investment authorities in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as a
number of firm interviews, this paper traces the evolution and
current status of the electronics industry in Batam and Johor.
The Exporting and Productivity Nexus: Does Firm Size Matter?
August 2014. The main purpose of this study is to
examine whether the relationship between exporting and
productivity differs across firm sizes in the Malaysian
manufacturing sector. A firm-level panel data from the Study on
Knowledge Content in Economic Sectors in Malaysia (MyKE) is used
in the study. Overall, exporters were found to be more
productive than non-exporters. This productivity gap becomes
less important as firms become larger. There is evidence that
the selection process for exporting is binding only for small
firms. Policies that are meant to encourage small firms to
export need to focus on enhancing human capital and foreign
ownership.
1(2005): Rahul
Sen,
Enhancing
Bilateral Economic Linkages Through New Regionalism: The Case of
thge Agreement between New Zealand and Singapore for a Closer
Economic Partnership (ANZSCEP), 2005
2(2004): Linda Low,
Policy Lessons
in Deveopment: Small, Open Economics of Singapore and Abu Dhabi
in the United Arab Emirates, 2004
1(2004): Denis Hew and Rahul Sen,
Towards an
ASEAN Economic Community: Challenges and Prospectds, 2004
1(2003): Lee Poh Onn,
The Water
Issue Between Singapore and Malaysia: No Solution in Signt? 2003
5(2002): Arumugam Rajenthran,
Malaysia: An
Overview of the Legal Framework for Foreign Direct Investment,
2002
4(2002): Arumugam Rajenthran,
Indonesia: An
Overview of the Legal Framework for Foreign Direct Investment,
2002
3(2002): Ramkishen S. Rajan and Rahul Sen,
International
Trade in Services in Selected ASEAN Countries:
Telecommunications and Finance, 2002
2(2002): Ngiam Kee Jin and Lixia Loh,
Developing a
Viable Corporate Bond Market: The Singapore Experience, 2002
1 (2002): Tracy Yang,
Crisis,
Contagion, and East Asian Stock Markets, 2002
1(2001): Tracy Yang and Reza Siregar,
An Empirical
Examination of the Stock Market Returns in Selected Asia-Pacific
Economies in the Pre- and Post-Financial Reform Period, 2001
7(2000): Tracy Yang and Paul Vandenberg,
Selected East
Asian Stock Markets in the Context of Financial Liberalisation:
Prior to the Crisis, 2000
6(2000): Ramkishen S. Rajan and Tracy Yang,
Devaluation
of the Baht and Economic Contraction in Thailand, 2000
5(2000): Sakulrat Montreevat,
Impact of
Foreign Entry on the Thai Banking Sector: Initial Stage of Bank
Restructuring, 2000
4(2000): Nick J. Freeman,
A Regional
Platform for Trading Southeast Asian Equities: Viable Option for
Lofty 'Red Herring'? 2000
3(2000): Nick J. Freeman and Frank L. Bartels,
Portfolio
Investment in Southeast Asia's Stock Markets: A Survey of
Institutional Investors' Current Perceptions and Practices, 2000
2(2000): Nick J. Freeman,
Foreign
Portfolio Investors' Approaches to Thailand's Equity Market:
Survey Findings and Preliminary Analysis, 2000
1(2000): Nick J. Freeman,
Constraints
on Thailand's Equity Market as an Allocator of Foreign
Investment Capital: Some Implications for Post-Crisis Southeast
Asia, 2000
9(1999): Frank L. Bartels and Nick J. Freeman, Multinational Firms
and FDI in Southeast Asia: Post-Crisis Perception Changes in the
Retail-Oriented Manufacturing Sector, December 1999.
8(1999): Kim Ong-Giger, Japanese IT Development: Implications for
FDI in Southeast Asia, September 1999
7(1999): Carolyn L. Gates, ASEAN’s Foreign Economic Relations: An
Evolutionary and Neo-Institutional Analysis, May 1999
6(1999): Kim Ong-Giger, Southeast Asian Economies in Crisis: The
Emergence of Pax Capitalia, April 1999
5(1999): Tin Maung Maung Than, The Political Economy of Burma’s
(Myanmar’s) Development Failure 1948-1988, March 1999
4(1999): Carolyn L. Gates, The East Asian Crisis and Global
Integration: Mismanagement and Panic Revisited or a New Beast?,
March 1999
3(1999): George Abonyi, Thailand: From Financial Crisis to
Economic Renewal, March 1999
2(1999): Anita G. Doraisami, The Malaysian Currency Crisis:
Causes, Policy Response and Future Implications, February 1999
1(1999): Myat Thein, Improving Resource Mobilization in Myanmar,
January 1999
5(1996): Mya Than, The Golden Quadrangle of Mainland Southeast
Asia: A Myanmar Perspective, July 1996
4(1996): Carolyn L. Gates, Enterprise Adjustment and Economic
Transformation: Industrial Enterprise Behaviour and Performance
in Vietnam during Stabilization and Liberalization, June 1996
3(1996): Helen Hughes, Perspectives for an Integrating World
Economy: Implications for Reform and Development, May 1996
2(1996): Reza Y. Siregar, Inflows of Portfolio Investment to
Indonesia: Anticipating the Challenges Facing the Management of
Macroeconomy, March 1996
1(1996): Nick J. Freeman, Portfolio Investment in Vietnam: Coping
Without a Bourse, February 1996 |